cwerdna
Well-Known Member
Bolded part: Maybe. Some regions of the world have strong mandates and incentives or other things to push consumers to BEVs.So frustrating chatting to you about this!
You seemingly won’t accept that in 5 years few will want ice cars !
Tesla were alone in the EV market for 10 years Ice vehicle manufacturers cannot change their entire range of vehicles from ice to EV in 5 years.
Some do not and many parts of the world frankly are NOT ready for them (e.g. poor electrical infrastructure). For example, one of my coworkers from India talked about frequent power outages and having to climb out of elevators via hatches when she was younger. I've never been there and can't comment on the situation but I found these from this year:
Heat wave sparks blackouts, questions on India’s coal usage
India recorded its hottest March since 1901, and average temperatures in April in northern and central pockets of the country were the highest in 122 years, the Indian Meteorological Department said.
www.nbcnews.com
India Braced for More Power Outages Amid Blistering Heatwave
Hours-long blackouts that halt manufacturing and trigger protests set to continue for months
time.com
India sweats over worst power cuts in six years during extreme heat
India is facing its worst electricity shortage in more than six years just as scorching temperatures force early closures of schools and send people indoors.
www.reuters.com
India faces electricity crisis as coal supplies run critically low is from 2021.
"States including Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Bihar have been experiencing power cuts lasting up to 14 hours.
Maharashtra shut down 13 thermal power plants and urged people to use electricity sparingly, and in Punjab three power plants halted production. Scheduled power cuts introduced in Punjab, lasting up to six hours at a time, have prompted protests."
Sri Lanka (for example) has been in crises (long story) and found Sri Lanka suffers long power cuts as currency shortage makes fuel scarce.
Some parts of the world have good electrical infrastructure but little charging infrastructure. Or, they are good on the former but for whatever reason have low BEV marketshare (maybe no place to charge at home nor work).
In my trips to Japan (last time in late 2019), I noticed very few BEVs on the road there. I made some comments about that at Japanese EV market - My Nissan Leaf Forum. I also posted some commentary about low # of BEVs in Japan at https://www.tivocommunity.com/threa...iscussion-thread.509722/page-13#post-11756804 but you'll need a free account there to see that post and the ones I pointed to.
Global EV sales overtake hybrid cars for first time in 2021 says "EV sales in Japan stood at around 20,000 units in 2021, highlighting relatively slow market expansion there." Japan - Flash report, Automotive sales volume, 2021 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal says 4.448 million automobiles were sold in Japan in 2021.
Tesla being alone in the EV market for 10 years? What year range are you talking about? What market(s)? For the part I italicized, true, they cannot. There are supply constraints (e.g. batteries) besides there being demand limited in markets. And, there is a pretty decent % of people in the US who will NOT buy BEVs (often due to myths and misinformation) or they cannot charge them at home nor at work.
I'm not clear how large the global automobile market is.
2021 (Full Year) International: Worldwide Car Sales - Car Sales Statistics mentions 58.1 million vehicles for 2021 for regions monitored by VDA (never heard of them before).
2022 and the global sales picture says
"GlobalData forecasts that the global light vehicle market in 2021 will total 79.9 million units, just 5.5% ahead of 2020 (75.7 million), with the chips crisis and resultant supply shortages this year contributing to a market around 4 million units below where underlying demand suggests it should have been. For context, the global light vehicle market exceeded 90 million units during the 2016-2018 period (slowing slightly in 2019).
The outlook for 2022 is for the global light vehicle market to grow to around 84 million, but supply and demand issues – as well as ongoing pandemic risks – point to a continuing fragility to the auto industry’s recovery next year. At 84 million units we’re still not quite back to pre-pandemic levels, though."
Why Toyota leads the global automotive sales chart has some market share charts. Who won the global automotive sales race in 2021? lists what they say are figures for the top 10 automakers in the world.
Are you in the US? If so, what state? Have you seen figures like Current EV registrations in the US: How does your state stack up? You can cross reference those numbers with Table MV-1 - Highway Statistics 2019 - Policy | Federal Highway Administration.
In 5 years, I bet you that if global unit sales remain level (e.g. 79 million), it would be unlikely that even 1/2 of those will be BEV. Or, whatever the 2027 global sales figure are, I bet that we won't be at 50% BEVs. Care to revisit this in 5 years?
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