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Who can catch Tesla ? They seem to be experiencing exponential growth…..

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So frustrating chatting to you about this!

You seemingly won’t accept that in 5 years few will want ice cars !

Tesla were alone in the EV market for 10 years Ice vehicle manufacturers cannot change their entire range of vehicles from ice to EV in 5 years.
Bolded part: Maybe. Some regions of the world have strong mandates and incentives or other things to push consumers to BEVs.

Some do not and many parts of the world frankly are NOT ready for them (e.g. poor electrical infrastructure). For example, one of my coworkers from India talked about frequent power outages and having to climb out of elevators via hatches when she was younger. I've never been there and can't comment on the situation but I found these from this year:

India faces electricity crisis as coal supplies run critically low is from 2021.
"States including Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Bihar have been experiencing power cuts lasting up to 14 hours.

Maharashtra shut down 13 thermal power plants and urged people to use electricity sparingly, and in Punjab three power plants halted production. Scheduled power cuts introduced in Punjab, lasting up to six hours at a time, have prompted protests."

Sri Lanka (for example) has been in crises (long story) and found Sri Lanka suffers long power cuts as currency shortage makes fuel scarce.

Some parts of the world have good electrical infrastructure but little charging infrastructure. Or, they are good on the former but for whatever reason have low BEV marketshare (maybe no place to charge at home nor work).

In my trips to Japan (last time in late 2019), I noticed very few BEVs on the road there. I made some comments about that at Japanese EV market - My Nissan Leaf Forum. I also posted some commentary about low # of BEVs in Japan at https://www.tivocommunity.com/threa...iscussion-thread.509722/page-13#post-11756804 but you'll need a free account there to see that post and the ones I pointed to.

Global EV sales overtake hybrid cars for first time in 2021 says "EV sales in Japan stood at around 20,000 units in 2021, highlighting relatively slow market expansion there." Japan - Flash report, Automotive sales volume, 2021 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal says 4.448 million automobiles were sold in Japan in 2021.

Tesla being alone in the EV market for 10 years? What year range are you talking about? What market(s)? For the part I italicized, true, they cannot. There are supply constraints (e.g. batteries) besides there being demand limited in markets. And, there is a pretty decent % of people in the US who will NOT buy BEVs (often due to myths and misinformation) or they cannot charge them at home nor at work.

I'm not clear how large the global automobile market is.
2021 (Full Year) International: Worldwide Car Sales - Car Sales Statistics mentions 58.1 million vehicles for 2021 for regions monitored by VDA (never heard of them before).
2022 and the global sales picture says
"GlobalData forecasts that the global light vehicle market in 2021 will total 79.9 million units, just 5.5% ahead of 2020 (75.7 million), with the chips crisis and resultant supply shortages this year contributing to a market around 4 million units below where underlying demand suggests it should have been. For context, the global light vehicle market exceeded 90 million units during the 2016-2018 period (slowing slightly in 2019).


The outlook for 2022 is for the global light vehicle market to grow to around 84 million, but supply and demand issues – as well as ongoing pandemic risks – point to a continuing fragility to the auto industry’s recovery next year. At 84 million units we’re still not quite back to pre-pandemic levels, though."

Why Toyota leads the global automotive sales chart has some market share charts. Who won the global automotive sales race in 2021? lists what they say are figures for the top 10 automakers in the world.

Are you in the US? If so, what state? Have you seen figures like Current EV registrations in the US: How does your state stack up? You can cross reference those numbers with Table MV-1 - Highway Statistics 2019 - Policy | Federal Highway Administration.

In 5 years, I bet you that if global unit sales remain level (e.g. 79 million), it would be unlikely that even 1/2 of those will be BEV. Or, whatever the 2027 global sales figure are, I bet that we won't be at 50% BEVs. Care to revisit this in 5 years?
 
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The headlines were a joke/misleading. The "used up" (hit 200K qualifying vehicles mark) credit of up to $7500 applies to plug-in hybrid and pure EVs: Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars. But yes, Toyota used up virtually all of the count towards the 200K vehicle on PHEVs.

It doesn't apply to hybrids, the kind you can't plug in. The old (and long gone) tax credit for hybrids has nothing to do this 200K vehicle limit.

In the US, hybrids (the kind you can't plug in) far outsell plug-in hybrids.

Back to Japan, there's Japan: Nissan LEAF Sales Cruise At Roughly 11,000 In 2021. While trying to find Tesla sales figures for Japan, I found Tesla's Popularity In Japan & Its Future EV Market mentioning "EVs account for only 1% of Japan’s overall car sales".
 
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So frustrating chatting to you about this!

You seemingly won’t accept that in 5 years few will want ice cars !

Tesla were alone in the EV market for 10 years Ice vehicle manufacturers cannot change their entire range of vehicles from ice to EV in 5 years.
I think you should look to Norway.

Our incentives (no sales or car tax on BEVs and high taxes on ICE and hybrids) and low prices for electricity has made BEVs dominate the market.

Tesla though is around 10-15% marketshare.

The other big players are VAG (VW, Audi, Skoda and Born brands) , Nissan, Renault, Hyundai, Kia, BMW. Mercedes/EQ, Polestar and Volvo on the rise. Porsche Taycans all around. The Chinese with Nio, MG, Xpeng and BYD is around.

Japanese cars, except Nissan, are small players atm, but will change with a well priced bz4x.

US differs from Norway as you get few European and Chinese brands, probably due to maga policies. But with an open market with high adoption and excellent charging infrastructure, this is how it looks: Tesla is certainly not walking alone.

Some examples: Audi etron outsold the X in less than 2 years, and have outsold the S after 3 years compared to the S being 9 years on the market.

ID.4, Enyaq and Q4 (VAG sister models) has sold the double as the Y.
 
Here's another cherry for you to pick:
Tesla is bigger than Honda in California and will pass Toyota in couple of years:
Cali_brand_sum.jpg

And here's Germany for fun:
ger.jpg
 
I just returned from a trip to France. Compared with certain other Europeans countries I had not heard much about EVs in that country. I was surprised by the number of Tesla’s I saw - I saw then very regularly. But there also were a good number of European-based EVs on the road, including many French models, none of which are sold here as far as I know and which would probably not be suitable for the North American market. I saw a lot of charging infrastructure, mostly curb-side in Paris. There are many hybrids on the road as well, which is a big change from my last visit 5 years ago, where diesel unfortunately still ruled among those seeking fuel efficiency. With the diesel bubble having been deservedly popped, other alternatives are proliferating. Bicycling pathway infrastructure has exploded as well in Paris and elsewhere, which is nice to see, although with some grumbling by motorists. My purely subjective impression is that with reduced diesel vehicles and with other transportation alternatives taking off, air quality is improving in the cities.
 
When you make claims like that, everything you say becomes tainted.

Utter nonsense.

Pro tip: You might want to ratchet it down about three or four notches.

P.S. perhaps less caffeine might help?
I apologise for posting facts above …..⬆️

I can see you react badly to straightforward data !

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W

wwu123

Member​

Monday at 2:49 PM
It also includes hybrids, I believe

Pretty worthless number
I mentioned thinking the same thing about BYD numbers a few year back, because they did have a lot of PHEV's (not regular hybrids). But then I tried to corroborate that looking around for more data on 2022 numbers, and found things changed a lot in the past two years, and corrected myself. On top of that, latest numbers including June published on Insideevs on Friday, they do still sell a lot of PHEV's but the number that was in question here is all BEV's:

BYD plug-in sales year-to-date:
  • BEVs: 323,520 (up 237% year-over-year)
  • PHEVs: 314,637 (up 454% year-over-year)
  • Total: 638,157 (up 325% year-over-year)
Helps to do some research.

When you make claims like that, everything you say becomes tainted.

•••
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[IMG alt="Stuart Watson"]https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/data/avatars/l/219/219668.jpg?1648346399[/IMG]

Stuart Watson

Member​



Tuesday at 7:49 AM
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👍🏻 😂

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C

cwerdna

Active Member​

Thursday at 10:36 AM
The US isn't only country in the world. In figures Stuart's providing, Toyota in H1 2022 in the US alone sold more vehicles that Tesla has done worldwide in an entire year.

Per Sales, Production, and Export Results for 2021 (January - December) | Sales, Production, and Export Results | Profile | Company | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website, in 2021, Toyota sold 9.6 million vehicles worldwide, not including Daihatsu and Hino. Wholly-owned subsidary Daihatsu contributed another 725K vehicles.

Tesla Q4 2021 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations is what Tesla achieved, in comparison. In other words, in unit sales 1.29 Daihatsus.

Last edited: Thursday at 10:41 AM
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C

cusetownusa

2022 LR5 MSM/Bl | 19"​

Thursday at 3:55 PM
The US isn't only country in the world. In figures Stuart's providing, Toyota in H1 2022 in the US alone sold more vehicles that Tesla has done worldwide in an entire year.

Per Sales, Production, and Export Results for 2021 (January - December) | Sales, Production, and Export Results | Profile | Company | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website, in 2021, Toyota sold 9.6 million vehicles worldwide, not including Daihatsu and Hino. Wholly-owned subsidary Daihatsu contributed another 725K vehicles.

Tesla Q4 2021 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations is what Tesla achieved, in comparison. In other words, in unit sales 1.29 Daihatsus.
Click to expand...
Unless I am missing something, this thread is about BEV sales, not ICE sales. The better comparison would be how many Toyota BEV sales were made H1 2022. Don't feel like looking it up but can't be many.

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R

randmness

Member​

Thursday at 5:13 PM
If we're talking solely about the US, I think alot of these manufactures will inevitably catch up in total sales; Tesla will probably be the leader for the near future though. We're still pretty early into EV transformation. The US just passed the 5% "tipping point" for EVs, and is estimated to be at 25% in 2025. I dont see Tesla increasing current manufacturing 5-fold in the next three years, which potentially would leave an overwhelming share of the market to non-Tesla OEMs. Europe is sitting at 22% EV marketshare. In EU, Tesla is still the overwhelming #1 sales leader, but the sales disparities amongst manufacturers arent nearly as bad as the US (the EU EV market is more mature.) With more competition coming on every year, most of the market still up for grabs (78% in EU vs 95% here in the US), and just Tesla's own production limits, others manufacturers will have to come up. I think we could see a scenario where the Model 3 and Y are the best selling vehicles of their class, but other OEMs are selling more vehicles overall.

Outside of that, EV infrastructure seems to be a big focus for the next couple years, and when Tesla opens up the supercharger network for third party charging via CCS (like they have done in EU), I could see more people shifting to other choices as well.

This is of course ignoring any economy-related impacts of selling mostly $60K+ vehicles. I honestly dont know how the median US household income (~mid $60K) can afford 1 EV (let alone 2 of them.)

Last edited: Thursday at 5:35 PM
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J

Just a Reader

Member​

Thursday at 8:01 PM
Well said ! ☝🏻


How ridiculous. Look at Toyota availability ( you can drive one home today from my local dealer, plenty of stock ) whereas a Model Y requires a 12 month wait.
Errm, have you tried to buy a new car - any new car - recently and get it delivered at short notice? Forget about it. Either you get what the dealer happens to have in his showroom and is willing to sell or you should be prepared for a long waiting period.
A bog standard VW ICE built in Europe? We are talking about delivery at the end of Q4 if you are lucky. As to id.3, id.4 or Enyak you are lucky if you are going to get it in 2023.
I'm working in a large company and we used to have plenty of leased company cars sitting in our car pool that were returned early because the employee had left the company, was sent abroad etc. etc. Now cars going into the "pool" are often getting snapped up in less than half an hour.

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Stuart Watson

Member​



2 minutes ago
The US isn't only country in the world. In figures Stuart's providing, Toyota in H1 2022 in the US alone sold more vehicles that Tesla has done worldwide in an entire year.
So frustrating chatting to you about this!

You seemingly won’t accept that in 5 years few will want ice cars !

Tesla were alone in the EV market for 10 years Ice vehicle manufacturers cannot change their entire range of vehicles from ice to EV in 5 years.

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I think you should look to Norway.

Our incentives (no sales or car tax on BEVs and high taxes on ICE and hybrids) and low prices for electricity has made BEVs dominate the market.

Tesla though is around 10-15% marketshare.

The other big players are VAG (VW, Audi, Skoda and Born brands) , Nissan, Renault, Hyundai, Kia, BMW. Mercedes/EQ, Polestar and Volvo on the rise. Porsche Taycans all around. The Chinese with Nio, MG, Xpeng and BYD is around.

Japanese cars, except Nissan, are small players atm, but will change with a well priced bz4x.

US differs from Norway as you get few European and Chinese brands, probably due to maga policies. But with an open market with high adoption and excellent charging infrastructure, this is how it looks: Tesla is certainly not walking alone.

Some examples: Audi etron outsold the X in less than 2 years, and have outsold the S after 3 years compared to the S being 9 years on the market.

ID.4, Enyaq and Q4 (VAG sister models) has sold the double as the Y.
You don’t think it matters that Tesla didn’t have a European gigafactory and now they do ? 🤦‍♂️
 
I think you should look to Norway.

Our incentives (no sales or car tax on BEVs and high taxes on ICE and hybrids) and low prices for electricity has made BEVs dominate the market.
Yes. Norway is a pretty extreme example. I remember seeing a great web site outlining the crazy strong incentives to push drivers to BEVs besides crazy high gasoline prices.

The chance of that happening universally across the US is pretty low for a long time and nil in the next 5 years.

As for HVM's California example, I live in California. It was one of the strongest EV markets in the US. There are 49 other states. There are over 190 other countries in the world.

I'm in the Bay Area, which is also a very strong EV market (just within a radius of 2 houses around me not including my BEV are 3 Bolts, 2 Model Y and 1 Mach-E). I've ventured to areas that outside the SF Bay Area and outside Los Angeles county and its neighbors and you sure don't see many BEVs on the road.

Even in California, per https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-22-002.pdf (latest report from https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-22-002.pdf), 14.6% were BEV for 2022 YTD registrations, that leaves 85.4% of the rest being non-BEVs.

There's also the used car market. Stuart's statement of "You seemingly won’t accept that in 5 years few will want ice cars !" is pretty strange. Don't know what market(s) he's referring to and what his definition of "few" is. For countries like Norway, sure. For US states that are not strong EV markets and Japan? Hahahaha. For many low income countries or w/terrible electric infrastructure? Hahaha.
 
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Yes. Norway is a pretty extreme example. I remember seeing a great web site outlining the crazy strong incentives to push drivers to BEVs besides crazy high gasoline prices.

The chance of that happening universally across the US is pretty low for a long time and nil in the next 5 years.

As for HVM's California example, I live in California. It was one of the strongest EV markets in the US. There are 49 other states. There are over 190 other countries in the world.

Even in California, per https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-22-002.pdf (latest report from https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-22-002.pdf), 14.6% were BEV for 2022 YTD registrations, that leaves 85.4% of the rest being non-BEVs.
I agree, because of the incentives, EVs are price competetive and even cheaper than ICE here. It will change from 2023 with sales tax of 25% for price above 500.000,- NOK. ICE is taxed based on weight, CO2 and NOx plus full sales tax.

The example was to show the difference between a mature market where other countries will be in the future, Then Tesla will be one of the biggest brands but it will not dominate.
 
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I had not heard much about EVs in that country. I was surprised by the number of Tesla’s I saw - I saw then very regularly. But there also were a good number of European-based EVs on the road, including many French models

France has Renault doing the Zoe for ages plus Peugeot and a few others, they far prefer French brand cars (same as Germans prefer German brands) so to be buying something else (the 3 sells well there given the size and cost) is something
 
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Yes. Norway is a pretty extreme example. I remember seeing a great web site outlining the crazy strong incentives to push drivers to BEVs besides crazy high gasoline prices.

The chance of that happening universally across the US is pretty low for a long time and nil in the next 5 years.
I think Norwegian EV policy was the site.

Also, per Norway gasoline prices, 18-Jul-2022 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com, it claims that in Norway, gasoline is currently 23.64 NOK per liter which it says translates to $9.028 USD per US gallon. A quick Google search (makes for a great converter) for 23.640 nok per litre in usd per us gallon yields $8.99 USD per US gallon which is close enough.

Right now, in the US, per AAA Gas Prices, US average regular gasoline prices are $4.366/US gallon. Per AAA Gas Prices, it's $5.741/gallon.

Another point of past history to point to: non-plugin hybrids (the ones you can't plug in) have been available in the US for over 20 years. They deliver better city and combined (city and highway) fuel economy and in some cases are more powerful than their ICE-only versions. They require no habit change on the part of the driver and no additional infrastructure nor ability to charge anywhere since they can't be plugged in.

Sure, there were few models at the beginning (e.g. gen 1 Insight, gen 1 Prius, Civic Hybrid, etc.) but now there are tons of models in the US: Fuel Economy of New Hybrid Vehicles. Yet, with all this, AFAIK, they've never gotten beyond 10% market share in the US despite all sorts of surveys over the years with fairly large % of Americans saying they'd "consider" a hybrid. Sure they "consider" but their actions seem quite different.

I was a Prius and full-hybrid enthusiast from ~2006 to 2013 beside being a Prius owner from 2006 until 2019.
 
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If you look at the auto sales data and trends, then it's pretty obvious that ICE sales are declining fast while EV sales are increasing fast over time. If this trend continues, then EV's will overtake ICE in the auto market sometime this decade, probably in 5 years or so.

Now, if you look at EV manufacturer sales data and trends, then it's painfully obvious that Tesla is increasing production much faster than any other automaker in the world, excluding the sub $10K EV segment, the "death trap" vehicles. Every other company producing EV's falls further behind Tesla's trend year over year. VW has done well to give Tesla a fight but they aren't increasing fast enough to catch them right now.

So, numerically, it would appear that no one has any chance of catching up to Tesla anytime soon. In time that trend might change and someone else might be able to ramp production fast enough to overtake Tesla's trajectory. That's possible, but at this point in time there isn't a company on course to do so.

Math doesn't lie.
 
Another point of past history to point to: non-plugin hybrids (the ones you can't plug in) have been available in the US for over 20 years. They deliver better city and combined (city and highway) fuel economy and in some cases are more powerful than their ICE-only versions. They require no habit change on the part of the driver and no additional infrastructure nor ability to charge anywhere since they can't be plugged in.

Sure, there were few models at the beginning (e.g. gen 1 Insight, gen 1 Prius, Civic Hybrid, etc.) but now there are tons of models in the US: Fuel Economy of New Hybrid Vehicles. Yet, with all this, AFAIK, they've never gotten beyond 10% market share in the US despite all sorts of surveys over the years with fairly large % of Americans saying they'd "consider" a hybrid. Sure they "consider" but their actions seem quite different.

I was a Prius and full-hybrid enthusiast from ~2006 to 2013 beside being a Prius owner from 2006 until 2019.
I agree. I was a Ford C-Max owner before getting a Tesla Model 3. Despite having some early problems, such as Ford overstating the mileage, the hybrid C-Max was an excellent vehicle. Even if the mileage was not quite as good as Ford had initially claimed, it was still extremely good, and with no compromises on performance. Handling was nice. Overall build quality was good. It was comfortable inside, though not luxurious, and with plenty of practical storage space available. The price was reasonable. It was a stellar little car that would certainly have done its part to improve North American vehicle fleet efficiency and to reduce emissions, if it (and potential other vehicles like it) had ever caught on. But North Americans were not interested, and Ford did very little to try to convince them. It was discontinued a few years ago.

Our C-Max Hybrid is still doing yeoman service as my adult daughter’s vehicle, and she is very happy with it in these times of high gas prices.
 
I agree. I was a Ford C-Max owner before getting a Tesla Model 3. Despite having some early problems, such as Ford overstating the mileage, the hybrid C-Max was an excellent vehicle. Even if the mileage was not quite as good as Ford had initially claimed, it was still extremely good, and with no compromises on performance. Handling was nice. Overall build quality was good. It was comfortable inside, though not luxurious, and with plenty of practical storage space available. The price was reasonable. It was a stellar little car that would certainly have done its part to improve North American vehicle fleet efficiency and to reduce emissions, if it (and potential other vehicles like it) had ever caught on. But North Americans were not interested, and Ford did very little to try to convince them. It was discontinued a few years ago.

Our C-Max Hybrid is still doing yeoman service as my adult daughter’s vehicle, and she is very happy with it in these times of high gas prices.
It's not that North Americans were not interested, it's just that Ford's true customers (dealers) were not interested in selling them - too busy with F-150s.

Dealers make money on SERVICE. How often have you had to take your C-Max in for oil changes?
 
If you look at the auto sales data and trends, then it's pretty obvious that ICE sales are declining fast while EV sales are increasing fast over time. If this trend continues, then EV's will overtake ICE in the auto market sometime this decade, probably in 5 years or so.

Now, if you look at EV manufacturer sales data and trends, then it's painfully obvious that Tesla is increasing production much faster than any other automaker in the world, excluding the sub $10K EV segment, the "death trap" vehicles. Every other company producing EV's falls further behind Tesla's trend year over year. VW has done well to give Tesla a fight but they aren't increasing fast enough to catch them right now.

So, numerically, it would appear that no one has any chance of catching up to Tesla anytime soon. In time that trend might change and someone else might be able to ramp production fast enough to overtake Tesla's trajectory. That's possible, but at this point in time there isn't a company on course to do so.

Math doesn't lie.
Crikey !
At last someone who can read !
I totally agree. Your post is factual.
Well said 👍
 
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If you look at the auto sales data and trends, then it's pretty obvious that ICE sales are declining fast
No.

while EV sales are increasing fast over time.
Yes.
If this trend continues, then EV's will overtake ICE in the auto market sometime this decade, probably in 5 years or so.
In 5 years? What markets/countries are you talking about? Seems like you and Stuart are totally way off on the auto market in terms of sales numbers and ratios. Do you guys live in an echo chamber bubble where everyone you communicate with only wants EVs? I've been driving them for 9 years as my primary car and been ICEV-less since end of Jan 2019 in a strong EV market in the US, yet I'm a realist.

Take a look at 25 Bestselling Cars, Trucks, and SUVs of 2020, for example. This ONLY for the US. Think about what BEVs exist and might be coming to replace each of those vehicles, what market and price segments they serve and the numbers? Ford in the US along sold over 787K Ford F-series trucks. That model alone is 84% of of Tesla's total deliveries for 2021.

Look at an example pre-COVID year (again, US only): 2019 US Vehicle Sales Figures By Model.

10 years in certain strong EV markets or countries (or where the govt has strong abilities/powers to force the market a certain direction), I could see that but definitely not worldwide.
 
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In 5 years your defence of ice sales will look hilarious!

Report back in 2027 and let me know.
Why don't you answer my questions with specifics?
You seemingly won’t accept that in 5 years few will want ice cars !

Tesla were alone in the EV market for 10 years Ice vehicle manufacturers cannot change their entire range of vehicles from ice to EV in 5 years.
In 5 years, what countries will "few will want ice cars"? What percentage of sales does it need to be of EV vs. ICEV does means "few" to you? Are you talking about the global auto market?

For the 2nd part, what 10 years are you talking about? Leaf was the best selling EV in the world for years, until finally the Model 3 beat it. Have you looked at the Chinese auto market w/totally different players? Over there, the total sales of EVs + PHEVs in a given year when I last checked is about triple that of the US.