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Who gets reservations filled first?

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In this crazy world of Covid19, why dont we say the oldest reservation holder gets their order filled first? They r the ones that might not get to enjoy the truck the longest. And they will drive their trucks more per day, thereby the viability for Tesla out on the street more. Oh, I have 170k miles on my S, it's been in over 25 states.
 
Nearly everyone can develop a rationale that puts them near the head of the line.

If CT roll-out is like previous Tesla vehicles, it will seem nearly completely random.

Some frustration stems from “culture shock”. Tesla produces to customer order. It does not have independent dealers that compete with each other. Tesla delivery points do not have acres of new vehicles waiting for a buyer.

Over the years I have observed these factors at work:

STRONG
  • Geography / Calendar. Vehicles are shipped to most distant locations from the factory at the start of the quarter. By the end, delivery will be to the places with lowest shipping time. Thus quarter-end and year-end blow-outs in Fremont where customers in a nearby facility receive Model 3 and now Y as they are completed.
  • Profit. Higher trim levels - Tri-Motor - are more profitable. These are produced in highest volume and delivered as soon as possible.
  • Batch production. Tesla prefers longish runs with same battery, motors, paint (not relevant for CT), interior and wheels. If your order matches an early batch, that’s good news. Else you may see others receive their vehicle soon after making their reservation.
Weak
  • Loyalty. Those who already own a Tesla vehicle seem to get preference.
  • Simplest purchase. If your order includes trade-in and/or loan or lease, it may be delayed.
  • Ease of scheduling delivery. The harder it is for Tesla to quickly set the day and time to deliver your vehicle, the more likely it is they will end up selling that VIN to someone else who wants the configuration and can close the deal shortly after it’s on-site.
  • Tesla incompetence. Tesla can simply mess things up. Your order is somehow never matched to a VIN. Or that VIN gets mysteriously reassigned to someone else. Or the vehicle is damaged in transit. Or the person who was processing your order is suddenly ill or experiences career change and nobody picks up the pieces.
 
Good list.

Geography: There's one factory to serve the entire world so shipping logistics play a huge part. It's a bit easier when they're only shipping to North America, but we'll see a lot of people located far from Austin get their CTs first. I'm ~20 miles from Fremont, was in the queue for ~13 months and had to wait while people in Maine and Washington got theirs. CA deliveries probably won't be stacked at the end of the quarter now.

Profit: More expensive performance models always come out first. Tesla owners are an especially noisy bunch and people spending more $ will always demand to be first.

Batch Production: You'll see people change their order multiple times hoping to improve their delivery date and then complain loudly when it backfires and they get delayed. For example, the MY hitch receiver was released before my delivery, but I didn't add it to my order because I didn't want a delay. That cost me ~$200 (eg., $1000 from factory add-on, $1200 after delivery), however, the trade-off was adding month(s) to my delivery date.


Nearly everyone can develop a rationale that puts them near the head of the line.

If CT roll-out is like previous Tesla vehicles, it will seem nearly completely random.

Some frustration stems from “culture shock”. Tesla produces to customer order. It does not have independent dealers that compete with each other. Tesla delivery points do not have acres of new vehicles waiting for a buyer.

Over the years I have observed these factors at work:

STRONG
  • Geography / Calendar. Vehicles are shipped to most distant locations from the factory at the start of the quarter. By the end, delivery will be to the places with lowest shipping time. Thus quarter-end and year-end blow-outs in Fremont where customers in a nearby facility receive Model 3 and now Y as they are completed.
  • Profit. Higher trim levels - Tri-Motor - are more profitable. These are produced in highest volume and delivered as soon as possible.
  • Batch production. Tesla prefers longish runs with same battery, motors, paint (not relevant for CT), interior and wheels. If your order matches an early batch, that’s good news. Else you may see others receive their vehicle soon after making their reservation.
Weak
  • Loyalty. Those who already own a Tesla vehicle seem to get preference.
  • Simplest purchase. If your order includes trade-in and/or loan or lease, it may be delayed.
  • Ease of scheduling delivery. The harder it is for Tesla to quickly set the day and time to deliver your vehicle, the more likely it is they will end up selling that VIN to someone else who wants the configuration and can close the deal shortly after it’s on-site.
  • Tesla incompetence. Tesla can simply mess things up. Your order is somehow never matched to a VIN. Or that VIN gets mysteriously reassigned to someone else. Or the vehicle is damaged in transit. Or the person who was processing your order is suddenly ill or experiences career change and nobody picks up the pieces.
 
So is there any advantage in upgrading my reservation (made 8:00am the morning after the reveal) from the dual-motor to the tri-motor, or does the complete randomness of this distribution model make that a stupid effort? I’m in Northern CA (< 100 miles from Fremont - likely irrelevant), but more concerned with getting the vehicle sooner than later, and less concerned about the price. Throwing another wrench in the works - will be moving to Hawaii about the time they (projected) start shipping these. I can still use a CA address to accept delivery (and ship it myself if it speeds up the process). Trying to figure out if I should stick to my dual motor order or upgrade to tri-motor if that gets me higher in the queue (without messing up my delivery).
 
So is there any advantage in upgrading my reservation (made 8:00am the morning after the reveal) from the dual-motor to the tri-motor, or does the complete randomness of this distribution model make that a stupid effort? I’m in Northern CA (< 100 miles from Fremont - likely irrelevant), but more concerned with getting the vehicle sooner than later, and less concerned about the price. Throwing another wrench in the works - will be moving to Hawaii about the time they (projected) start shipping these. I can still use a CA address to accept delivery (and ship it myself if it speeds up the process). Trying to figure out if I should stick to my dual motor order or upgrade to tri-motor if that gets me higher in the queue (without messing up my delivery).

I think you should wait. When it is certain that they are delivering the tri-motor first, then you switch.
 
So is there any advantage in upgrading my reservation (made 8:00am the morning after the reveal) from the dual-motor to the tri-motor, or does the complete randomness of this distribution model make that a stupid effort? I’m in Northern CA (< 100 miles from Fremont - likely irrelevant), but more concerned with getting the vehicle sooner than later, and less concerned about the price. Throwing another wrench in the works - will be moving to Hawaii about the time they (projected) start shipping these. I can still use a CA address to accept delivery (and ship it myself if it speeds up the process). Trying to figure out if I should stick to my dual motor order or upgrade to tri-motor if that gets me higher in the queue (without messing up my delivery).


I was not a M3 reservationist. As production was ramping up I went for it and purchased the most expensive PM3 off the website in what I believe was late August 2018. I received my car on September 30 at 10:00pm at night.....the last day of the Quarter. I am positive I received my car well in advance of many who reserved in advance and mainly because I bought a more expensive model.

I am also reserved for the Tri-Motor Cybertruck so let's hope that past strategy works this time.
 
So is there any advantage in upgrading my reservation (made 8:00am the morning after the reveal) from the dual-motor to the tri-motor, or does the complete randomness of this distribution model make that a stupid effort? I’m in Northern CA (< 100 miles from Fremont - likely irrelevant), but more concerned with getting the vehicle sooner than later, and less concerned about the price. Throwing another wrench in the works - will be moving to Hawaii about the time they (projected) start shipping these. I can still use a CA address to accept delivery (and ship it myself if it speeds up the process). Trying to figure out if I should stick to my dual motor order or upgrade to tri-motor if that gets me higher in the queue (without messing up my delivery).
Upgrade.
 
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As a recent preorder(er), I'm hoping I can get my dual motor in less than two year's time, but am not holding my breath.
Yeah Im hoping too. my Order # is... RN114673XXX... looking at another site there was chat of subtracting the start order numbers from our order number. The number I found was 112744100. Which puts me about 1.9 millionth in line. That can't be right.
 
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Yeah Im hoping too. my Order # is... RN114673XXX... looking at another site there was chat of subtracting the start order numbers from our order number. The number I found was 112744100. Which puts me about 1.9 millionth in line. That can't be right.
Yeah, I can only assume these are just guesses - Ford sells about 600k F150s per year, iirc, which means at that high of a production levels it would be over three years before they delivered your truck. Just doesn't make sense in reality. I suspect the pre-order numbers will fall dramatically once the orders / invoices start getting emailed.
 
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Yeah, I can only assume these are just guesses - Ford sells about 600k F150s per year, iirc, which means at that high of a production levels it would be over three years before they delivered your truck. Just doesn't make sense in reality. I suspect the pre-order numbers will fall dramatically once the orders / invoices start getting emailed.
Yeah I doubt everyone is truly a buyer. What a great idea by Tesla to get some free grassroots marketing!

I changed my order today to the AWD dual battery (up from the single) and my order number remained the same.
 
Yeah Im hoping too. my Order # is... RN114673XXX... looking at another site there was chat of subtracting the start order numbers from our order number. The number I found was 112744100. Which puts me about 1.9 millionth in line. That can't be right.
I don't recall where I read this, but the reservation numbers are sequential but for all products both energy and auto across lines. So what you are seeing is that from that reservation to yours there have been 1.9 million orders for products, power walls, solar, and all the autos. FWIW our Cybertruck RN is 11275XXXX and according to the spreadsheet at Tesla Reservation Tracker we are number 5k something of actual Cybertruck reservations... Hope that helps make a bit of sense of it all
 
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I don't recall where I read this, but the reservation numbers are sequential but for all products both energy and auto across lines. So what you are seeing is that from that reservation to yours there have been 1.9 million orders for products, power walls, solar, and all the autos. FWIW our Cybertruck RN is 11275XXXX and according to the spreadsheet at Tesla Reservation Tracker we are number 5k something of actual Cybertruck reservations... Hope that helps make a bit of sense of it all
Yup, same thing I’ve heard regarding the reservation numbers. Brings the light at the end of the tunnel a bit closer. :)
 
I Reserved a TriMotor as fast as the lagging website could take my order lol, I've read the replies, here's my question, I live in British Columbia, Canada. I know they build All-Options>Less-Options in huge like-wise batches, Performance fully optioned are usually first produced. I never knew of the shipping to most distant on continent first process, would that mean Canadians could potentially receive CT before say... Texans?

I'd love it ASAP, but I'm entirely ok with a bit of a wait. Still saving up..
 
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I Reserved a TriMotor as fast as the lagging website could take my order lol, I've read the replies, here's my question, I live in British Columbia, Canada. I know they build All-Options>Less-Options in huge like-wise batches, Performance fully optioned are usually first produced. I never knew of the shipping to most distant on continent first process, would that mean Canadians could potentially receive CT before say... Texans?

I'd love it ASAP, but I'm entirely ok with a bit of a wait. Still saving up..
I think with Giga Austin coming online things may change a bit in how they prioritize shipping since its "mid country" but if they stick to farthest first I'd think so... other thing thats different with Cybertruck is there aren't any "options" besides the motor variants... no colors, no interior options, no wheel options... so in theory we will all be getting the same truck with slightly different pack and motor configs LOL... Hopefully that just makes things go that much faster for production. We are down to one car and I need that truck YESTERDAY! Also ordered as fast as site lag would load the page and according to the tracker we are like sub 2k for our config and 5k overall... still projecting a May date with that... Hopefully things progress FAST!
 
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I Reserved a TriMotor as fast as the lagging website could take my order lol, I've read the replies, here's my question, I live in British Columbia, Canada. I know they build All-Options>Less-Options in huge like-wise batches, Performance fully optioned are usually first produced. I never knew of the shipping to most distant on continent first process, would that mean Canadians could potentially receive CT before say... Texans?

I'd love it ASAP, but I'm entirely ok with a bit of a wait. Still saving up..
Canada deliverers are always behind US deliveries. Tesla has always done this. X, 3 and Y. I think the Model 3 was about a year behind. They could not even configure their cars for Canada till March 2018. Model Y months so probably wont be different for the truck.
 
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Yeah Im hoping too. my Order # is... RN114673XXX... looking at another site there was chat of subtracting the start order numbers from our order number. The number I found was 112744100. Which puts me about 1.9 millionth in line. That can't be right.
I think a lot of those orders and breakdowns are inaccurate. From what's been reported here, the reservation numbers are across all Tesla products including vehicles, Powerwalls, etc. A crowdsourced reservation document shows that total reservations just passed one million and I still think different trims will get theirs first, so that might be open to interpretation.
 
As of today per a crowdsourced Cybertruck reservation tally Tesla has already accumulated over 1 million Cybertruck reservations.

Breakdown:
The tally also keeps track of the different trims, and the mix has stayed consistent with 48% for the Dual Motor, 44.5% for the Tri-motor, and only 7.5% of reservation holders are ordering the base single-motor version.

I am sure there are a lot of double and even some triple orders, as well as dropouts who settled for. Chop 30% off your estimated date of delivery and let's hope they move to two shifts quickly.

For all of you plotters. If you ordered or switched to Tri-motor you can multiply your delivery number by 44.5% to get a more accurate number inasmuch as Tri-motors will come off the line first.

For example. My original reservation number
213,334 X 45.5% = 97,066. Tri-motor factor.

97, 066 X 60% (30% duplicates and dropouts) =
58,239, a more accurate assessment of where you stand in line.

Of course, it's really all a COVID horse race.