In this crazy world of Covid19, why dont we say the oldest reservation holder gets their order filled first? They r the ones that might not get to enjoy the truck the longest. And they will drive their trucks more per day, thereby the viability for Tesla out on the street more. Oh, I have 170k miles on my S, it's been in over 25 states.
Nearly everyone can develop a rationale that puts them near the head of the line. If CT roll-out is like previous Tesla vehicles, it will seem nearly completely random. Some frustration stems from “culture shock”. Tesla produces to customer order. It does not have independent dealers that compete with each other. Tesla delivery points do not have acres of new vehicles waiting for a buyer. Over the years I have observed these factors at work: STRONG Geography / Calendar. Vehicles are shipped to most distant locations from the factory at the start of the quarter. By the end, delivery will be to the places with lowest shipping time. Thus quarter-end and year-end blow-outs in Fremont where customers in a nearby facility receive Model 3 and now Y as they are completed. Profit. Higher trim levels - Tri-Motor - are more profitable. These are produced in highest volume and delivered as soon as possible. Batch production. Tesla prefers longish runs with same battery, motors, paint (not relevant for CT), interior and wheels. If your order matches an early batch, that’s good news. Else you may see others receive their vehicle soon after making their reservation. Weak Loyalty. Those who already own a Tesla vehicle seem to get preference. Simplest purchase. If your order includes trade-in and/or loan or lease, it may be delayed. Ease of scheduling delivery. The harder it is for Tesla to quickly set the day and time to deliver your vehicle, the more likely it is they will end up selling that VIN to someone else who wants the configuration and can close the deal shortly after it’s on-site. Tesla incompetence. Tesla can simply mess things up. Your order is somehow never matched to a VIN. Or that VIN gets mysteriously reassigned to someone else. Or the vehicle is damaged in transit. Or the person who was processing your order is suddenly ill or experiences career change and nobody picks up the pieces.
Good list. Geography: There's one factory to serve the entire world so shipping logistics play a huge part. It's a bit easier when they're only shipping to North America, but we'll see a lot of people located far from Austin get their CTs first. I'm ~20 miles from Fremont, was in the queue for ~13 months and had to wait while people in Maine and Washington got theirs. CA deliveries probably won't be stacked at the end of the quarter now. Profit: More expensive performance models always come out first. Tesla owners are an especially noisy bunch and people spending more $ will always demand to be first. Batch Production: You'll see people change their order multiple times hoping to improve their delivery date and then complain loudly when it backfires and they get delayed. For example, the MY hitch receiver was released before my delivery, but I didn't add it to my order because I didn't want a delay. That cost me ~$200 (eg., $1000 from factory add-on, $1200 after delivery), however, the trade-off was adding month(s) to my delivery date.
So is there any advantage in upgrading my reservation (made 8:00am the morning after the reveal) from the dual-motor to the tri-motor, or does the complete randomness of this distribution model make that a stupid effort? I’m in Northern CA (< 100 miles from Fremont - likely irrelevant), but more concerned with getting the vehicle sooner than later, and less concerned about the price. Throwing another wrench in the works - will be moving to Hawaii about the time they (projected) start shipping these. I can still use a CA address to accept delivery (and ship it myself if it speeds up the process). Trying to figure out if I should stick to my dual motor order or upgrade to tri-motor if that gets me higher in the queue (without messing up my delivery).
I think you should wait. When it is certain that they are delivering the tri-motor first, then you switch.
I was not a M3 reservationist. As production was ramping up I went for it and purchased the most expensive PM3 off the website in what I believe was late August 2018. I received my car on September 30 at 10:00pm at night.....the last day of the Quarter. I am positive I received my car well in advance of many who reserved in advance and mainly because I bought a more expensive model. I am also reserved for the Tri-Motor Cybertruck so let's hope that past strategy works this time.