Who gets reservations filled first?

[Lasttoy]

As we see in Berlin and Austin, then r running a batch at a time. I think the line supply with be determined by supply of motors. They have to que up a run of let's say 100 dual motors. Then 100 tri motors, etc. The truck is the same, and battery pack. But different motor builds will determine run on assembly line.
I would take first 400 reservation, ask for configuration. Do it 400 at a time, any leftovers go to next batch. The set supply by each choice. Keep that idea in motors manufacture. That would make more people happy.

 

[Ogre]

As we see in Berlin and Austin, then r running a batch at a time. I think the line supply with be determined by supply of motors. They have to que up a run of let's say 100 dual motors. Then 100 tri motors, etc. The truck is the same, and battery pack. But different motor builds will determine run on assembly line.
I would take first 400 reservation, ask for configuration. Do it 400 at a time, any leftovers go to next batch. The set supply by each choice. Keep that idea in motors manufacture. That would make more people happy.

Hard to say what the final configs will look like, but as of launch day, battery pack and motor count vary together.

250 miles -> Single Motor
300+ miles -> Dual Motor
500 miles -> Tri Motor
??? Miles -> Quad Motor

It’s very likely there are at least 2 different sized battery packs. Likely only one config shipping at launch and a second config added 3-6 months later (This is what they’ve done with most launches).

Most likely quad motor ships first, dual shortly after. If there are battery or motor constraints, small chance dual ships first after all.

 

[strider]

Most likely quad motor ships first, dual shortly after. If there are battery or motor constraints, small chance dual ships first after all.

Agree with the caveat that quad motor is a new design for them. It may not be ready in time. Tri-motor already exists in the Plaid so they may start with that one since the work is already done.

 

[Ogre]

Agree with the caveat that quad motor is a new design for them. It may not be ready in time. Tri-motor already exists in the Plaid so they may start with that one since the work is already done.

Yeah, it's all a big mystery now,

Without knowing what the actual lineup looks like it's nothing but question marks.

Another wildcard is battery supply and motor supply. If they don't have 4680 cell production up to speed, they might ship the dual motor 300 mile range trucks first just to get the most out the door.

 

[Fairchild]

The big question is whether the quad motor will exceed the $80,000 tax credit limit for the $7500 tax credit.
My son drives a Rivian with a sticker of $55k and 275 "real" miles as opposed to Tesla miles, and he is very impressed by it.
And with the Ford F-150 Lightning at $51,974, will the CYBRTRK remain competitive? it will be old when it's released.
My 90,000+ order placed on the 6th day after the announcement day should arrive sometime at the end of 2024.

It's disheartening to announce vehicle after vehicle (Semi, Roadster, CYBRTRK) and then wait years to get them to production.
I am happy that they aren't announcing any more new vehicles at this time.

Look at Ms. Barra who presides over GM. You see all of the new ads about all of their new EVs and just yesterday they came face to face with production hell and just pushed most of them to the end of 2024. Why are they wasting advertising money on them now??

 

[Ogre]

The big question is whether the quad motor will exceed the $80,000 tax credit limit for the $7500 tax credit.
My son drives a Rivian with a sticker of $55k and 275 "real" miles as opposed to Tesla miles, and he is very impressed by it.
And with the Ford F-150 Lightning at $51,974, will the CYBRTRK remain competitive? it will be old when it's released.
My 90,000+ order placed on the 6th day after the announcement day should arrive sometime at the end of 2024.

It's disheartening to announce vehicle after vehicle (Semi, Roadster, CYBRTRK) and then wait years to get them to production.
I am happy that they aren't announcing any more new vehicles at this time.

Look at Ms. Barra who presides over GM. You see all of the new ads about all of their new EVs and just yesterday they came face to face with production hell and just pushed most of them to the end of 2024. Why are they wasting advertising money on them now??

Rivian with a sticker price of $55k? F150 with a sticker of $51k? What planet is this on?

The low end F150 has a range of 230 miles on its best day. Not a lot of people getting that in reality and even fewer getting a sticker price of $51k. More often $100k for the F150. No Rivian shipped to date has a sticker price below $75k as far as I know.

 

[strider]

The big question is whether the quad motor will exceed the $80,000 tax credit limit for the $7500 tax credit.
My son drives a Rivian with a sticker of $55k and 275 "real" miles as opposed to Tesla miles, and he is very impressed by it.
And with the Ford F-150 Lightning at $51,974, will the CYBRTRK remain competitive? it will be old when it's released.
My 90,000+ order placed on the 6th day after the announcement day should arrive sometime at the end of 2024.

Quad will be over $100k. Dual I think they will at least advertise (with a small battery) at a price that is competitive to the F-150, but like the F-150 they won't actually build any for that price. I think you will be getting a dual large battery for $80k. Triple will be $95k.

Rivian starts at $73k now.

It's disheartening to announce vehicle after vehicle (Semi, Roadster, CYBRTRK) and then wait years to get them to production.
I am happy that they aren't announcing any more new vehicles at this time.

Standard Tesla. Though you've been here a long time - you haven't noticed the pattern yet?

 

[Fairchild]

File this under diehard moving south.

Oh, I definitely noticed the pattern over time and I have been increasingly disenchanted by the price raises, equipment and software deletions, substandard deliveries, and same old colors and styling over time.

On my seventh Tesla now, but there comes a tipping point, when tolerance wanes and the regression has an effect, leaving an opportunity for the competition to move in

I recently canceled my 2023 Model Y order and BTW also unloaded about 40% of my Tesla stock (before the fall and Musk's last manic episode). I used to be a defender of some of the growth pain craziness, but I have become much more of a realist and increasingly less tolerant. It's not your father's Tesla anymore (not necessarily in a good way).

Not sure that by the time the CYBRTRK arrives, I won't have found a more competitive option.

I do acknowledge that there have also been many improvements over time, but I think seeing backorders drop below 300,000, prices dropping and atores closing in China, are all indicative of a pending soft underbelly. More stock out the door, when it rises to its next support level at about $250. It's been a good ride, but it's time to giddy-up or giddy off and not twiddle around.

Additionally, not impressed that my 2022 MYP range has dropped from the. advertised 303 range to 278 after only 8000 miles.

Unfortunately, Tesla appears to be following a corporate greed profile, which is moving away from the original mission of accelerating sustainable transport for the masses and something I can no longer fully support.

Yes, Rivian is $73k now. Son got his through work, a while back and I was told it was fleet price.

 

[Beerimar]

The fact is, anyone thinking they will be "first" because they reserved early is sadly mistaken.

Tesla isn't doing this the way Ford did, where an order is symbolic of being in the next production cycle.

They will let everyone order when orders open up and then sort them based on who completed the order and who has a build that's shipping soon.

Rivian hasn't started shipping/producing dual motor R1T's or Max Pack R1T's, so prices other than quad motor/large pack are irrelevant. The fact is, there hasn't been a Rivian delivered that was less than $70k and the only one you can order that will be delivered within a reasonable timeline, is now above the $80k limit for the tax credit.

If Ford and Rivian don't care about the tax credit affecting their sales numbers, what makes you think Tesla will? Ford doesn't have an extended range under $80k anymore and Rivian isn't delivering anything under that limit either. Tesla will price theirs based on what they think it can sell them at. Tesla wasn't even bothered about not being eligible for the previous tax credit and they still sold like crazy.

Rivian, Ford and Hummer EV have shown Tesla a few things which they didn't have the privilege of knowing about when they released the Model 3/Y originally, which is probably why the 3/Y were such good deals for a long time:
People play insane prices for EV trucks. And even at $90K+, every truck built is being sold.
People buy them even if they don't get a tax credit.

 

[Ogre]

The fact is, anyone thinking they will be "first" because they reserved early is sadly mistaken.

Tesla isn't doing this the way Ford did, where an order is symbolic of being in the next production cycle.

They will let everyone order when orders open up and then sort them based on who completed the order and who has a build that's shipping soon.

Rivian hasn't started shipping/producing dual motor R1T's or Max Pack R1T's, so prices other than quad motor/large pack are irrelevant. The fact is, there hasn't been a Rivian delivered that was less than $70k and the only one you can order that will be delivered within a reasonable timeline, is now above the $80k limit for the tax credit.

If Ford and Rivian don't care about the tax credit affecting their sales numbers, what makes you think Tesla will? Ford doesn't have an extended range under $80k anymore and Rivian isn't delivering anything under that limit either. Tesla will price theirs based on what they think it can sell them at. Tesla wasn't even bothered about not being eligible for the previous tax credit and they still sold like crazy.

Rivian, Ford and Hummer EV have shown Tesla a few things which they didn't have the privilege of knowing about when they released the Model 3/Y originally, which is probably why the 3/Y were such good deals for a long time:
People play insane prices for EV trucks. And even at $90K+, every truck built is being sold.
People buy them even if they don't get a tax credit.

Tesla will almost certainly do exactly what they have done in the past. Open up the config page in order that people placed their preorders.

Only real question is whether they do it based on the trim or just based on order number.

Your speculation otherwise is like much of the random speculation on this site and others—wishful thinking.

 

[NewbyMaybe]

If you do have the first cyber in your area then be ready for constant attention. It will be a selfie magnet if it's not in a garage or behind a gate.

 

[T3SLAROD]

If you do have the first cyber in your area then be ready for constant attention. It will be a selfie magnet if it's not in a garage or behind a gate.

Or a Target practice Object from every trying to find out if it’s really that tough.

 

[NewbyMaybe]

The wait for the fly/hover cyber will be torture.

 

[Fairchild]

Mess with their minds and put a PRIUS Logo on it!!!!

 

[Beerimar]

Tesla will almost certainly do exactly what they have done in the past. Open up the config page in order that people placed their preorders.

Only real question is whether they do it based on the trim or just based on order number.

Your speculation otherwise is like much of the random speculation on this site and others—wishful thinking.

If the trims are completely different, then how would that make sense?
I don't know why people still think the $40k Cybertruck is still happening.

With reservations being still being open despite no clear understanding of the exact production date, anything other than "They'll be as greedy as they can be" is actual wishful thinking.

There will be some consideration to early reservation holders, but this isn't like Rivian where Tesla needs the loyalty of people who reserve early in order to stay in business. Early Rivian reservation holders were: placing a much more expensive deposit and were actually choosing the model they were reserving, down to the color and tire/rim size.

The way I see it going is:
Reservation holders will get to the order page based on when they placed their deposit.
There will be a limited number of "less than crazy expensive" trucks that when sold out, will be like the Tesla Model 3 LR right now where it says it's unavailable and "available Q1 2024" or something of that sort.
You'll then have a choice, you either order the more expensive unit available, or pass on your spot and it goes to the next person.

The other option is, they let you order but the site and/or Tesla tell you, "You're gonna wait a while for that one" and you'll see hundreds to thousands of the more expensive triple motor versions being sold/delivered.

That's as realistically optimistic as I can be. I seriously doubt Elon is going to just make a bunch of $65k trucks that could've been $95k trucks just because some people reserved back in 2019 and think it's "the right thing to do". How anyone can look at what he has done over the last six months and think he will prioritize who was early over who will pay the most, I have no idea what kind of rose colored glasses you'd need for that.

 

[Ogre]

If the trims are completely different, then how would that make sense?
I don't know why people still think the $40k Cybertruck is still happening.

With reservations being still being open despite no clear understanding of the exact production date, anything other than "They'll be as greedy as they can be" is actual wishful thinking.

There will be some consideration to early reservation holders, but this isn't like Rivian where Tesla needs the loyalty of people who reserve early in order to stay in business. Early Rivian reservation holders were: placing a much more expensive deposit and were actually choosing the model they were reserving, down to the color and tire/rim size.

The way I see it going is:
Reservation holders will get to the order page based on when they placed their deposit.
There will be a limited number of "less than crazy expensive" trucks that when sold out, will be like the Tesla Model 3 LR right now where it says it's unavailable and "available Q1 2024" or something of that sort.
You'll then have a choice, you either order the more expensive unit available, or pass on your spot and it goes to the next person.

The other option is, they let you order but the site and/or Tesla tell you, "You're gonna wait a while for that one" and you'll see hundreds to thousands of the more expensive triple motor versions being sold/delivered.

That's as realistically optimistic as I can be. I seriously doubt Elon is going to just make a bunch of $65k trucks that could've been $95k trucks just because some people reserved back in 2019 and think it's "the right thing to do". How anyone can look at what he has done over the last six months and think he will prioritize who was early over who will pay the most, I have no idea what kind of rose colored glasses you'd need for that.

You are just tossing out a bunch of speculation here. Only real change to specs officially is adding quad motor config.

Rest of your comment is even deeper into fantasyland with nothing based on the way Tesla has acted in the past.

“I reserved late but it doesn’t matter because… reasons!”

 

[NewbyMaybe]

I'm volunteering for the neuralink brain implant so I can get cybertruck vin #1.

 

[Fairchild]

Agree.
It will be driven completely by profit margins.

 

[holeydonut]

If the trims are completely different, then how would that make sense?
I don't know why people still think the $40k Cybertruck is still happening.

With reservations being still being open despite no clear understanding of the exact production date, anything other than "They'll be as greedy as they can be" is actual wishful thinking.

There will be some consideration to early reservation holders, but this isn't like Rivian where Tesla needs the loyalty of people who reserve early in order to stay in business. Early Rivian reservation holders were: placing a much more expensive deposit and were actually choosing the model they were reserving, down to the color and tire/rim size.

The way I see it going is:
Reservation holders will get to the order page based on when they placed their deposit.
There will be a limited number of "less than crazy expensive" trucks that when sold out, will be like the Tesla Model 3 LR right now where it says it's unavailable and "available Q1 2024" or something of that sort.
You'll then have a choice, you either order the more expensive unit available, or pass on your spot and it goes to the next person.

The other option is, they let you order but the site and/or Tesla tell you, "You're gonna wait a while for that one" and you'll see hundreds to thousands of the more expensive triple motor versions being sold/delivered.

That's as realistically optimistic as I can be. I seriously doubt Elon is going to just make a bunch of $65k trucks that could've been $95k trucks just because some people reserved back in 2019 and think it's "the right thing to do". How anyone can look at what he has done over the last six months and think he will prioritize who was early over who will pay the most, I have no idea what kind of rose colored glasses you'd need for that.

Yeah there is zero reason to come out with the low margin stuff first. This isn't like the queue at the DMV where it is some egalitarian situation and everyone's equally a loser because they're stuck at the DMV. For stuff like a CT, throw FIFO out the window. Whoever has the $ and/or influence goes ahead of some broke-azz single motor order.

GM/Chevy has said their $40k bare-bones strippo Silverado EV is not happening up front. Out of the gate, it'll be the $100k+ MSRP "first edition". Soon followed by the 3WT and 4WT fleet variants that have a target MSRP around $75k (300 miles range) to $80k (purported 400 miles range). And after that it'll be retail builds that presumably fall in the ~$80k to $100k MSRP territory.

 

[whisperingshad]

Might go similar to the 40 series S