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Who gets the next VINs, 90s with 5 seats or 75s with coils and 6/7 seats?

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by beths11, May 24, 2016.

  1. beths11

    beths11 THE LONG RANGER

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    Now that we have 75Ds with 6/7 seats and SAS getting VINs what's next? Will 5 seats be the last thing produced or will coils?
     
  2. gfb107

    gfb107 Member

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    My guess is coils will be next. The offer to upgrade to SAS for the 75Ds included a pretty strong statement that coils would start delivery in September. I don't recall hearing about any similar statements recently from Tesla as to when delivery would start for 5 seaters.
     
  3. jsollender

    jsollender Member

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    5 seaters at confirmation were told "mid-2016"
    Take your pick for what that means. Just spoke to my DS's regional manager who said fingers crossed for Q3 delivery of 5 seaters...
     
  4. gfb107

    gfb107 Member

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    For most of us "at confirmation" is not "recently"
     
  5. tgbrad

    tgbrad Member

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    I ordered a 75D seven seat with coils back in December. Got my VIN today.
     
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  6. Rove

    Rove Member

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    Just had to upgrade my 5 seater to a 7 since my DS called and told me that the 5 seater won't make it until closer to end of year ( I ordered it early April and he was telling me mid year all along the way until yesterday) My lease is up in August so I had to upgrade.
     
  7. gfb107

    gfb107 Member

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    So you did NOT upgrade to SAS?
     
  8. tgbrad

    tgbrad Member

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    Nope
     
  9. beths11

    beths11 THE LONG RANGER

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    So that was quick, coils before 5 seats....
     
  10. jason1466

    jason1466 Member

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    Interesting, and congrats, as they told all of us it would be Sept delivery if we kept our coils. Can you tell us your VIN, like 88xx, and do you see your Spec sheet in MyTesla not listing the SAS $1250 air option as of today?
     
  11. beths11

    beths11 THE LONG RANGER

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    #11 beths11, May 25, 2016
    Last edited: May 25, 2016
    So the next round of sales calls is:...Upgrade your 5 seat to a 6 or 7 seat for Aug./Sept delivery at a x% discount. Ones the calls are done, orders locked, five seats start getting VINs....Do we see a pattern people?
     
  12. tgbrad

    tgbrad Member

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    87xx VIN. No changes in the spec sheet, and definitely no SAS showing up as I did not upgrade.
     
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  13. beths11

    beths11 THE LONG RANGER

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    They are filling slots and clearly they did not get enough SAS upgrade bites to fill all the slots....so they add in coil to fill the slots.
     
  14. jason1466

    jason1466 Member

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    I understand a lot of 6/7 seat SAS 75D folks have not yet received VINs. This one is a Tesla magic mystery that should be revealed in due time.
     
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  15. beths11

    beths11 THE LONG RANGER

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    There was speculation in another thread that VINs are being assigned to furthest locations first so they have time to ship and arrive before the end of June. Those cars which need less shipping time will get Vins assigned later, but will probably get a similar delivery. Interesting theory. It is what we saw end of 1st. quarter, lots of CA deliveries in the last week.
     
  16. jsollender

    jsollender Member

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    Analysis of modelxtracker.com reveals 2000 listings. As there is somewhere between ~20,000-30,000 people who reserved MX, I would use each data point and assume it represents 10-15 similar vehicles, as a small sample (7.5-10%) of reservists have posted data. Of those 2000 listings, 86 of them are for any version with 75 KwH batteries. Using the multiplier of 10-15x, that equates with between 860-1290 people worldwide who have reserved a 75 KwH battery config. With TM putting out maybe 500 cars per week (low estimate, but debatable), they would clear through the full assortment of 75's (except 5 seat versions) in less than 3 weeks. On the other hand, the 1910 90KwH vehicles in modelxtracker, 1196 are unconfirmed, with only 714 confirmed orders, or 37%. If you take that percentage and apply it to 86 listings for 75 KwH reservists, that brings the 75 KwH confirmed orders to 32. Multiply by 10-15 and you only have 320-480 total worldwide orders of 75's, again. That should be one week's worth of production. Of the world total 20-30K who reserved, at 37% confirmation, that leaves 7400-11,000 total worldwide confirmed orders. Presume that VIN assignments are numerically a representation of total builds (I know the VIN is not linear, and not clear if 8700 VINs have truly been assigned at this stage of production), this would leave perhaps around 3000 more vehicles to assign VINs before the unconfirmed orders will be the last reservists to deal with.
    Totally tricked out 75D's can max out at $109,000, which is more profitable to TM than my 5 seat 90D with options to $104,000. So, what I am getting at is that 5 seat variety MX should start to roll out once the few 75D versions go into production. I had thought 90D 5-seaters would start VIN assignment before any 75 variations, but still looks like EM is looking at most profitable to least profitable out of Fremont, with not a whole lot more cars to produce. Anyone want to analyze this data and comment? I know lots of unknowns, but data and stats is all we have to go with at present due to shortage of data from TM.
     
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  17. jsollender

    jsollender Member

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  18. vandacca

    vandacca Active Member

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    I suspect that a big part of the delayed rollout of the 5-seat and coil and to a lesser extent the 75D is because the design of those variations have not yet been completed. The 75D should be a fairly trivial design change. Either put less cells in the battery pack (and all the design/layout required for that) or simply software limit a 90D pack.
     
  19. beths11

    beths11 THE LONG RANGER

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    A forum member posted they had received a VIN for their 75D coil, so coils are designed and ready to produce. The poster was asked "you didn't upgrade to SAS?", to which he/she replied "No, definitely coil". I guess I believe it is all about profit. Engineers that designed the Model X can't figure out how to get rid of the third row? I don't think that is beyond them.
     
  20. vandacca

    vandacca Active Member

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    With the 5-seat variation, they have to do something with the 3rd row area - they just can't leave it bare. There is also a hump there (due to the rear motor?) that needs to be taken into account. They also need to eliminate the rear HVAC and possible reroute other things like the subwoofer (for upgraded sound option). I think they want to do something fairly functional and aesthetically pleasing. There are many ways to finish off that area, so I'm not surprised it's taking them that long.

    Also, it's not a great price difference (~5k), so I doubt that it's purely for profit.

    I'd also like to think that a big portion of the delay is because they're re-designing the 2nd row to fold flat...
     
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