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GM and Ford are still years away from having an effective battery strategy.

Until they get battery production online, ramping up their EV line means selling trucks at 2% margin instead of 20% margin. Fundamentally they cannot compete with the Cybertruck on price. They aren’t even planning on converting most of their fleet before 2030.
I used to think this as well but now I think they will surprise us. The Silverado EV is supposed to debut next month with 400+ mile range with both consumer and fleet versions. We have already seen the F-150, Rivian pickup for high end "adventurer". I mean the other guys don't seem to far behind considering how late Tesla is on the CT and now it sounds like they are still figuring out powertrain configurations, etc. If anything they seem to be further ahead of Tesla from a pickup perspective. Tesla may have more advanced battery tech and drive units but the reality is once the competitors battery has a 400 mile range and better performance and lower operating cost than the ICE based truck most will not care what type of battery cells or other technical specs the truck has to offer. Price, warranty and can I charge the thing will be the main deciding factors then for truck buyers they will get lots of options including a truck in different paint colors.

I do agree the ramp will take some time but that is ok because the majority of the customer base will not all be able to make this transition so quickly. The main issue is still price and lack of charging capability. I mean you can basically rule out just about everyone who lives in an apartment or home without a garage or easy access to a 50amp circuit. Also rural areas where folks travel further distances, haul heavy loads or tow trailers with boats, landscaping equipment, etc. will not want to deal with the current Supercharger parking situation. For now, I see most EV pickups buyers as the same folks who really don't really need a pickup today but buy one. ;)
 
I used to think this as well but now I think they will surprise us. The Silverado EV is supposed to debut next month with 400+ mile range with both consumer and fleet versions. We have already seen the F-150, Rivian pickup for high end "adventurer". I mean the other guys don't seem to far behind considering how late Tesla is on the CT and now it sounds like they are still figuring out powertrain configurations, etc. If anything they seem to be further ahead of Tesla from a pickup perspective. Tesla may have more advanced battery tech and drive units but the reality is once the competitors battery has a 400 mile range and better performance and lower operating cost than the ICE based truck most will not care what type of battery cells or other technical specs the truck has to offer. Price, warranty and can I charge the thing will be the main deciding factors then for truck buyers they will get lots of options including a truck in different paint colors.

I do agree the ramp will take some time but that is ok because the majority of the customer base will not all be able to make this transition so quickly. The main issue is still price and lack of charging capability. I mean you can basically rule out just about everyone who lives in an apartment or home without a garage or easy access to a 50amp circuit. Also rural areas where folks travel further distances, haul heavy loads or tow trailers with boats, landscaping equipment, etc. will not want to deal with the current Supercharger parking situation. For now, I see most EV pickups buyers as the same folks who really don't really need a pickup today but buy one. ;)
Building a prototype costs a million dollars. Manufacturing batteries for hundreds of thousands of trucks costs billions spent over multiple years. Ford‘s battery factory is 4 years out, assuming it’s on time. GM‘s is similarly out there. Neither can source enough batteries on the open market right now to scale up to 10s of thousands of trucks.

You can’t just go to South Korea or China and order 100 GWH of batteries for scaling up truck production. There isn’t enough raw materials supply for all of these companies to bring production on line at the same time.
 
Building a prototype costs a million dollars. Manufacturing batteries for hundreds of thousands of trucks costs billions spent over multiple years. Ford‘s battery factory is 4 years out, assuming it’s on time. GM‘s is similarly out there. Neither can source enough batteries on the open market right now to scale up to 10s of thousands of trucks.

You can’t just go to South Korea or China and order 100 GWH of batteries for scaling up truck production. There isn’t enough raw materials supply for all of these companies to bring production on line at the same time.
I thought they were moving faster than this though.

 
Same here, I assume Tesla will also only offer a few options/trim levels where the traditional manufacturers typically offer more options which is a big deal with trucks. I would expect a Silverado EV to offer more trim levels, cab configurations as well as wheel/tire options, bed options, running boards, tail gate options, interior configurations, cloth, leather, sunroof, sound system, HUD, etc. I would also expect a huge frunk like the F150.

Don't get me wrong, I think the CT is cool but once GM, Ford and Dodge ramp up production of their EV pickups the CT will be the niche truck. Rivian may be first but those trucks are rather pricey and target this "adventurer" market, whatever that is. An EV truck with 300+ mile range in the low 50-60k price range minus a 10k+ tax credit from GM/Ford is the sweet spot. $45-50k for a full size EV truck is a winner. Even a 250 mile range 2WD model with Access Cab for $40-45k would be a game changer as well.
I agree the Cybertruck is a cool niche truck with a lot of good features of a good work truck. The full size cab and 6.5 foot bed (vault) coupled with its cargo and tow capacity make it a serious work horse. I like the Rivian but think that it's too expensive and the undersized bed is a deal breaker. I think that it will eventually be competing with the likes of the Ford Maverick and Hyundai Santa Cruz and not full size EV or ICE trucks. I'm just waiting for the January 5 Silverado Electric. 400 miles of range would send it over the top if that comes to fruition.
 
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I thought they were moving faster than this though.

GM isn’t shipping any cars right now. Batteries on the Bolt are from LG. Hummer is coming but they are only selling 10,000 - 20,000.

So… maybe they are rolling out new capacity? Looking at the Hummer batter pack, I don’t think we have to worry too much about a 400 mile Silverado.
 
My son owns a Chevy Bolt and we're not too happy about the timeliness of their LG battery recall. GM had to have it shoved down their throat for more than a year before they took any decisive action. One positive fact is that the Hummer and Silverado Ultium battery pack is reportedly not shared with the Bolt but I'm not really confident the General Motors learned anything that will benefit consumers from this experience . When my wife's Model 3 motor grenaded Tesla repaired it in less than a week. I have heard people questioning Tesla's customer service but I have high confidence in their product support . I just want to provide background information from my perspective in the event that anyone is weighing the Silverado EV against the Cybertruck.

I know that I strayed from the original subject of whether any of us are going to purchase the Cybertruck but my answer is the same. I'll see how long it takes for delivery and keep weighing options until then. I would like to hear what others have to say because I'm open to any ideas and new information about the positive and negative aspects of each electric pickup truck including the policies of their parent company.
 
GM and Ford are still years away from having an effective battery strategy.

Until they get battery production online, ramping up their EV line means selling trucks at 2% margin instead of 20% margin. Fundamentally they cannot compete with the Cybertruck on price. They aren’t even planning on converting most of their fleet before 2030.

It’s possible the Cybertruck ends up being too weird for consumers and sales start dropping. Then Tesla can dust off their “normal” truck plans and try again. Fundamentally time is on Tesla’s side right now.

Personally, I kind of hope the Cybertruck does turn out to be too weird for general adoption. Makes mine easier to find at the mall.
While the million+ preorders may be a poor predictor of actual sales, I think it's a good indicator of affinity.
 
Soooo how about that Tesla "Not-a-Product-Roadmap" today? 🙄

No mention of the CT updated prototype sightings, changes, pricing, timeline....nothing besides not 2022. ☹️
I didn't quite interpret all of it as 100% no. I was 63 yrs old when I bought a reservation. And my truck was 10 yrs old. I run my "transportation account" so that I buy a new vehicle every 10-11 years.
I'm old. My truck's old. Delays are old.
 
Seriously frustrating.

I get it. I hate it.

Ultimately, it’s not hugely surprising. We kind of had plenty of warning.

Now the question is whether we just hang onto our Subaru or get another Model Y, lift it, and add bigger tires.
 
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FWIW, he did allude to how there is a time for product reveals and that maybe the Earnings Call wasn't what he had in mind for that.

Oh I dunno maybe cuz he's been dropping all this Cyber Gear in the shop recently and saying things like this so we expected more. 🙄

AE4282BE-3158-4CFC-9AFB-097F96C2246E.jpeg
 
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If you're waiting on a Cybertruck there is no way to come away from this earnings call as anything other than disappointed.

I don't necessarily "need" the Cybertruck this year, but I sure as hell "want" it...and even as a TSLA investor I don't give two shiats about Optimus.

Anywho, my advice to Elon is to stop tweeting about Govt. suppression and focus more on Tesla's mission statement.
 
If you're waiting on a Cybertruck there is no way to come away from this earnings call as anything other than disappointed.

I don't necessarily "need" the Cybertruck this year, but I sure as hell "want" it...and even as a TSLA investor I don't give two shiats about Optimus.

Anywho, my advice to Elon is to stop tweeting about Govt. suppression and focus more on Tesla's mission statement.
Optimus is quite interesting as a future option. But it’s a 5-10 year plan, we’ve seen how long FSD took to get from being a great concept in the lab to being almost useful. It’s fantastic that Tesla is thinking about it, but it’s hard to get your head around it when it is clearly at least a few years away.
 
Oh I dunno maybe cuz he's been dropping all this Cyber Gear in the shop recently and saying things like this so we expected more. 🙄

View attachment 761139
He gave a product roadmap.

  • CT in 2023
  • no 25K car on the horizon
  • Optimus Sub-Prime and FSD are the next big thing
  • Current model 3/Y ramp will continue to be the focal point, production dependent upon chips and batteries

He also started the meeting with something like, "Some stuff deserves its own launch so lets skip those things"

So, we'll have to wait for the CT's reveal of the latest version.

A detailed product unveil is the sort of thing that has never happened on an Earnings Call. Has it?
 
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