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Why a 215 mi range?

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Around here with have these things called 'surface roads', they are like highways, but only one lane per direction. I often drive for hundreds of miles on these roads.
I grew up in Mississippi. I am fully aware of such roads. As a Circuit Pastor, my Grandfather drove them every Sunday.

To visit my SIL's father's place I would need to travel 40 miles in the wrong direction, and then take a horrible route instead of the beautiful coastal route. Adding 50 minutes to driving time.
OK. I honestly can't think of any place I would need to travel that would be quite so inconvenient for Supercharger use. I look at the proposed map for 2017, and I feel giddy. Because no matter whom I needed to visit in California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, or Georgia the area is well covered. Even those few folks in New York, Connecticut, and Vermont are covered. In each case, the Superchargers I'd use to reach them will be 'on the way' instead of 'out of the way'.

But really you haven't given a single piece of evidence that 150 miles is the optimal distance. Or evidence that adding more SC stations is more work than doubling the range of millions of cars. That just doesn't sound sensible.
At this point, I'm not sure what you would consider 'evidence'. I am certain that no Tesla Motors product will have a total range less than a Nissan LEAF. So, I am confident that spacing Superchargers at least 80 miles apart should be sufficient on high speed routes, like those in Texas posted at 85 MPH. And, I believe that putting Superchargers around 150 miles apart in places where the speed limit is 65 MPH or less will be fine. In a world where the usable range for an EV will probably be over 300 miles well within the next decade, Superchargers at 'every 50 miles' or 'every exit' would be largely unused. Keep in mind that by 'Supercharger' I mean a dedicated location with at least eight charging stalls. Not just a two-stall site in the corner of a gas station next to the air/water machine. Someone else can install CHAdeMO, CCS, or J1772 that way if they like, instead.
 
A promise? Really?

Sure, didn't it sound like that to you? Let me rephrase: I think Elon Musk would be disappointed if he couldn't reach his design goal of a few years ago (yet). I think he would stop at nothing to make sure that what he said at the reveal comes to fruition. But what he said at the reveal also included a distinct objective standard against which his statement can be judged. "EPA rated at 215 miles of range" No one will have an question about whether he met that requirement. "200 miles of real world range"? That would be a 50 page forum argument.

You're quite a character to figure that a businessman is somehow held to anything he says about what he would like to happen. And here again, why the worry? If he makes his target, everyone will be happy. If some are unable to be happy, they should not buy Tesla. But worrying in public does no good at all. Unless you are interested in doing no good. Hmmmm.

Not sure what you are talking about here. What worry do you think I have? Why the questioning of my motivations?

Thank you kindly.
 
"Looks like another perfect day...
"I love L.A."
Yeah. Pretty much perfect.
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At this point, I'm not sure what you would consider 'evidence'.

Evidence: Something which increases the Bayesian probability of a hypothesis (or decreases it).

I am certain that no Tesla Motors product will have a total range less than a Nissan LEAF. So, I am confident that spacing Superchargers at least 80 miles apart should be sufficient on high speed routes, like those in Texas posted at 85 MPH. And, I believe that putting Superchargers around 150 miles apart in places where the speed limit is 65 MPH or less will be fine.

Where do the numbers come from? 150 miles apart seems to work great for the middle of a long journey. Not so much for either end, as my example shows. For local-ish journeys, say a round trip of 100 miles, it fails miserably.

A grid of 80 miles apart seems borderline for roundtrips, the SC would need to be *on* the route. Every exit? Around here, that would be way more than needed, but our exits are every couple of miles.

In a world where the usable range for an EV will probably be over 300 miles well within the next decade, Superchargers at 'every 50 miles' or 'every exit' would be largely unused.

That same world has 50 times as many cars needing supercharging. All the chargers will be full on the Wednesday before thanksgiving. And it seems unlikely that any particular station would be generally under used. There is no pattern to everybody's trips that makes fewer larger stations more viable. 10 years is less than the life of a car, hopefully especially a Tesla. Whatever they do, they need to not strand their initial buyers of the mainstream car. That mean spacing based on 150(?) miles range in worst case.

Perusing supercharge.info it seems that Tesla's current spacing is about 85 miles (slightly longer in the midwest). Local round trips are troublesome in some places with spacings around 110 miles. Unless one lives in Nebraska, North Dakota, or Arkansas, in which case Elon hates you. :(

Thank you kindly.
 
All this SC talk should be in the SC thread...

Sadly adding to the noise, if you are using a SC for a local trip you are doing it wrong... (At least based on what Tesla says)

Local-ish, as opposed to one-way long distance was what I meant. If one is doing a one-day round trip which is further than half the range, a supercharger is the only way that it can be done at all. I am quite sure that Tesla is fine with that.

Thank you kindly.
 
Local-ish, as opposed to one-way long distance was what I meant. If one is doing a one-day round trip which is further than half the range, a supercharger is the only way that it can be done at all. I am quite sure that Tesla is fine with that.
The ability to conveniently travel beyond a strictly local sphere, as one would with an ICE, is paramount. I know that I am fine with that. It truly astounds me that so many are 'Agin It'.