Why a 215 mi range?

[ImEric]

I think, if anything, They're probably using somewhere around a 55 Kwh (or so) battery and getting those numbers from their real-world testing of their prototype. It's entirely possible that as their battery chemistry and geometry get better between now and next summer, they may be able to get slightly better range strictly because of increased density. with the same size pack. If that's the case, I could see them using an even smaller battery for the base model (50-53 kWh) since increased density means less pack-weight, and less weight overall in the car. I think Instead of increasing the range of the car, they might take the opportunity to save some money. If they're making their packs for about $125.00/kWh, and they're able to shave off 5 kWh, and still get the same range, then they'd save about $625.00/car. If 150k of the 400k pre-orders get the base model, then Tesla would save almost 100 million dollars by producing a car with the agreed upon range, using a slightly more energy dense battery.

 

[ecarfan]

With the Model 3 being smaller and lighter than the Model S, but with the same battery, then it should be able to go farther than the Model S rated 208 Miles.

The Model 3 will not have "the same battery" as the S. The physical size will be different. The two models are built on different platforms.

 

[voip-ninja]

I think Tesla is aiming for "highway speed" 215 miles with Model 3 base configuration. That way they can be confident of at least that and (possibly) more for real world mixed driving.

Not sure why you are pulling this rabbit out of your hat when Tesla have said nothing to indicate this will happen. Range reduction at cruise speeds is a big problem for tesla and will remain so I expect for the foreseeable future.

EM specifically said 215 EPA mileage which means more like 185 at 75mph in normal temperatures.

 

[MitchJi]

I'm looking for opinions as to why the range on the base model is (at least) 215 miles.

215 is a rather specific number.

Or do you think it's a complete misdirection and the true range of the base model is much higher?

I believe that they know it will be higher but they don't want to announce it until they update they make similar upgrades to the S-X because they don't want to canabalize the S-X sales. If you listen to Elon's M3 presentation he says that 215 is the minimum and that they aspire to do better.

 

[cantdecide]

I think it is a reasonable assumption that they are getting 215-218 EPA today with the prototype (or a computer model of it).
The range is primarily determined by Elon wanting at least 200 miles of range and wanting to use cheap low density batteries but fill the battery compartment (no point in leaving out a few cheap batteries for a round range number).
Give it a year of minor tweaks to hardware and software, along with lower variation tolerances on manufacturing and it should be 220 or so EPA miles combined, and higher for highway EPA (which is what actually matters once you get over about 150 miles of range).

 

[Scannerman]

Since you invited opinions:

1. It is likely that Tesla knows the weight of the vehicle and the size of the base model battery. They can do the math and have software that emulates the 5 cycle test that sets that range figure.

2. They are likely to have performed SOME practical testing, but unlikely that it's based on extensive real-world testing.

3. No misdirection. The Model S60 had a range of 208 until it was discontinued. I think they wanted to make it bigger than that. I also think that there will be at least one larger battery size that will extend the range of the Model 3 at least as far as the S90D.

I believe the quote from Elon was along these lines. "...The most affordable model 3, will have a range of 215 miles..." (or was it at least 215 miles)?

Scannerman

 

[nexsuperne101]

If you look at the Nissan Leaf. It has a 24KWh battery, and if you drive it gently, and at no more than a constant 50mph, then it is possible to get 100 miles from 24KWh (actually, it is 21.6Kwh, as there is a 10% battery safety margin).
This works out at 4.6 miles per KWh, or 216 watts per mile. This is achievable in the real world, as I did it last summer.
Realistically for driving at 60mph, that 4.6 miles per KWh drops to 3.8, or 263 watts per mile.

Comparably speaking, the Leaf and the Model 3 are similar sizes, so would be similar weights, however, the CD on a Leaf is 0.29. The CD on the 3 is going to be much lower. A lower CD means less power needed to overcome the wind resistance to maintain speed. Even if it was identical at 0.29, the 55KW battery (which I will assume, possibly wrongly, that 10% capacity will be kept as an overhead), gives 49.5KWh usable. If the worst case is taken at 263 watts per mile, then the range (at 60mph) will be 188 miles. If 55KWh is 100% available, then this jumps up to 209. Try it at 50mph, and its up to 255 miles (at 100% of 55KWh).

This is where the much lower CD and possibly lower weight will come into play, but 215 is a realistic figure, and far more reliable than the old NEDC rating (which would probably be >300 miles?!)

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Not sure why you are pulling this rabbit out of your hat when Tesla have said nothing to indicate this will happen. Range reduction at cruise speeds is a big problem for tesla and will remain so I expect for the foreseeable future.

EM specifically said 215 EPA mileage which means more like 185 at 75mph in normal temperatures.

It depends on what you consider "cruise speed". In many areas of the country, 75 is technically speeding (I know....there are a few places where faster IS legal...) and there's no way a company would do their range calculations based on a speed that is illegal in most places.

When they say "cruise speed", they most likely mean 65.


And at that speed, with the drag coefficient they're aiming for, with AWD, the front wheels will be doing most of the work at cruising speed, boosting efficiency.

 

[timk225]

Just like the Challenger R/T I am driving now, my Model 3 will frequently be traveling above the posted speed limit. So if a base battery gets 220 miles real world, I'll be doing good to get 200.

Aside from the cost of the battery and its actual range, there needs to be enough of a difference in range between the big battery and the standard one, so that people will pay out more for the big battery. The small one can't be TOO good.

 

[Buckeye2320]

The Model 3 will not have "the same battery" as the S. The physical size will be different. The two models are built on different platforms.

Are they not built on the same technology???? Yes they are on different "skateboard" platforms, but the battery technology is the same, therefore, if you take the size of the vehicle, Model ≡ being smaller, and the battery technology into consideration, then my statement is true. The Model 3 with a 60kWh battery should easily be able to do 215 EPA Miles.

Yes there are threads that state the Model 3 will have <60 kWh battery, but as we have seen with the Model S and how Tesla has been changing the 60 kWh->70kWh->75kWh, and the 85kWh->90kWh battery, we can assume that by the time the Model ≡ will be at least a 60kWh pack on a different "skateboard" platform.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Just like the Challenger R/T I am driving now, my Model 3 will frequently be traveling above the posted speed limit. So if a base battery gets 220 miles real world, I'll be doing good to get 200.

Aside from the cost of the battery and its actual range, there needs to be enough of a difference in range between the big battery and the standard one, so that people will pay out more for the big battery. The small one can't be TOO good.

I live in MA, where the speed limit is just a suggestion on most days, so I totally understand not getting the advertised max range on a daily basis. I'm just saying that for legal purposes, Tesla isn't going to come out and tell you that "cruising range" is 75mph+.

When we take our long trips to see the wife's family in VA, I'll let Autopilot do the speed limit in range mode. But if the trip is less than 150 miles, I'm going to have some fun getting there.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Are they not built on the same technology???? Yes they are on different "skateboard" platforms, but the battery technology is the same, therefore, if you take the size of the vehicle, Model ≡ being smaller, and the battery technology into consideration, then my statement is true. The Model 3 with a 60kWh battery should easily be able to do 215 EPA Miles.

Yes there are threads that state the Model 3 will have <60 kWh battery, but as we have seen with the Model S and how Tesla has been changing the 60 kWh->70kWh->75kWh, and the 85kWh->90kWh battery, we can assume that by the time the Model ≡ will be at least a 60kWh pack on a different "skateboard" platform.

But the battery technology is not the exact same. New cells, different chemistry, different energy density. For the same weight that a current (S/X) 60kWh pack is, the Model 3 might be able to do it with a significant weight saving, meaning more range. I suppose we'll have to wait until at least Q4 when the Gigafactory starts producing batteries, or maybe even Reveal Part 2, but I suspect the new battery cell makeup will have a lot to do with the range of the 3.

 

[geoffreak]

Yeah, I have to consider the range at 80-85 mph because that is the interstate highway speed of traffic in Texas. Having a car with a low Cd should help tremendously in reducing drag losses. Hopefully when the final specs get published, we'll be able to calculate the estimated range at that speed so Texas drivers know their roadtrip range.

 

[JeffK]

The EPA high speed part of the 5 cycle fuel economy test does go to 80 mph

 

[ModelNforNerd]

The EPA high speed part of the 5 cycle fuel economy test does go to 80 mph

I don't keep up with the EPA test...but how long does it maintain 80mph? In bursts? or for a sustained period of time?

 

[JeffK]

This'll help
Detailed Test Information

There's a table in the test details tab.

It's not a long period of time but that high speed graph pretty much describes the way I drive.

 

[Booga]

Yeah, I have to consider the range at 80-85 mph because that is the interstate highway speed of traffic in Texas. Having a car with a low Cd should help tremendously in reducing drag losses. Hopefully when the final specs get published, we'll be able to calculate the estimated range at that speed so Texas drivers know their roadtrip range.

You might be interested in a graph like this (or someone else reading this thread). The range of the Model S mentioned goes from 250-275 miles at 65mph down to ~200 miles at 80mph.

This is one of the reasons I want to get the range upgrade on the Model 3. The primary highways I travel on for routine long distance driving have speed limits of 70 and so traffic is usually flowing at 75-80mph. I have a one way distance of 200 miles for 1 trip and 140 miles for the 2nd trip. The larger battery will help make both of those a reality. I'm open to stopping at a supercharger when needed, but this will provide me with a lot more flexibility in terms of the speeds I drive (or rather, AP drives on my behalf) and less planning that will be needed from me for charging.

I look forward to the day when we have electric charging stations at nearly every highway exit.

Model S Efficiency and Range

 

[geoffreak]

You might be interested in a graph like this (or someone else reading this thread). The range of the Model S mentioned goes from 250-275 miles at 65mph down to ~200 miles at 80mph.

So worst case scenario, we're talking about a 30% reduction in range. This means the base battery will likely have at worst a 150 mile range at 80-85 mph. Would this be sufficient to go between all super chargers? I would say this distance sucks because this means you would be stopping at most every hour and a half instead of every two hours while driving.

My goal is to have the option to drive between locations in Dallas and Austin (almost exactly 215 miles door to door, how convenient) at the proper speed when I need to hurry or if I want to stop at a different location besides the Waco supercharger. I understand that in the future as more charging locations open along the route that this would be less of an issue, so I'm mostly only concerned with the short term.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

So worst case scenario, we're talking about a 30% reduction in range. This means the base battery will likely have at worst a 150 mile range at 80-85 mph. Would this be sufficient to go between all super chargers? I would say this distance sucks because this means you would be stopping at most every hour and a half instead of every two hours while driving.

My goal is to have the option to drive between locations in Dallas and Austin (almost exactly 215 miles door to door, how convenient) at the proper speed when I need to hurry or if I want to stop at a different location besides the Waco supercharger. I understand that in the future as more charging locations open along the route that this would be less of an issue, so I'm mostly only concerned with the short term.

I think in the short term the answer is going to be:

get the big battery and keep it under 80......

 

[JeffK]

With a smaller Cd we'd be looking at less of a loss at high speed compared with the Model S so the graph would be a little less steep of a drop off.