But later it is the more probability. October fits with some many rumors.But not the rumored July timeline (with fancy schematics,) or the rumored August timeline, or the rumored September timeline. We've been down this road a bunch of times this year. At this point I see no reason to believe October is any more realistic.
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Why AP 2.0 Won't Be Here Soon, and It Won't Be What You Think It Is
- Thread starter Todd Burch
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- Model S
Canuck
Well-Known Member
But not the rumored July timeline (with fancy schematics,) or the rumored August timeline, or the rumored September timeline. We've been down this road a bunch of times this year. At this point I see no reason to believe October is any more realistic.
I see a reason for the October rumour to be more realistic than July, Aug and Sept. October at least has a chance of it appearing whereas the past months have no chance.
I'm thinking this is more of a boy who cried wolf situation. The post refresh July rumor was easily the best supported I've seen this year, with schematics and everything. It didn't happen.
Why should we believe the new rumor now?
1 it has to come out eventually. New housing on X points to it. The gap is between today and model 3 launch in 2017.
2 after artificially stimulating q3 demand they need a catalyst for q4 which is arguably hardest quarter with ICE 2016 cars selling at a discount but tesla charges same for Jan 2017 as dec 2016 before you tell me it does not effect resale value it does. Look at numerous for sale ads that only mention year. Kbb is not value. What someone will pay is.
What new housing is that?
As far as I know, every X built to date has had exactly the same housing, which has a blank space for a second camera with wiring.
Unless Tesla saw the break with Mobileye coming more than a year ago, whatever plan they had for those empty spaces probably no longer applies.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
I don't believe it. I was just giving a reason that October is more realistic than past months, more tongue-in-cheek because at least October has a chance but past months do not. But I won't believe AP2.0 is here until someone posts pictures of a vehicle with the new hardware. That day is coming but "when" is anyone's guess. And if the past is any indication of the future, then Tesla sale's employees will be the last to know.
X housing vs S
Lot of hardware is same between the new models, but a blank on X.. why?
Canuck
Well-Known Member
I'll speculate. When the X went into production, Tesla had plans for another camera in the blank space but not right away. Rather than having to manufacture different parts later, and retool the assembly line to install different parts and new wiring, they built the assembly line from the get-go to install the housing and wiring that will be required in the future since it's less expensive and more efficient than changing it later. The S's assembly line would need to be retooled to account for the new camera, and new parts will need to replace old parts, so that can wait until they are ready to actually install the camera.
Just a guess.
I agree and will add to that speculation. The divorce with mobile eye slowed implementation.
Multiple cameras seems a certainty before model 3 for same line of reasoning. That's why window has window closing.
100k car should not be inferior in any way to a 35k car from same manufacturer
MichFin
Member
I bought my Model S in July of last year and I made a mistake. What I realize now is that as these cars are evolving so quickly it doesn't make sense to buy them anymore if you're like me and want to have the latest and greatest. I encourage anyone who's waiting on AP 2.0 to just go ahead and lease the car now. You will get so much joy from having the current Model S/X and in 2 or 3 years depending on your lease you'll get that same joy again.
This is not you're fathers Oldsmobile... This is more like an iPhone... In 3 years you're going to feel the urge to upgrade anyways.
This is not you're fathers Oldsmobile... This is more like an iPhone... In 3 years you're going to feel the urge to upgrade anyways.
Have you seen tesla leases?
It was an $18,000 up front cash swing to lease with almost equal monthly payments.
Is it impossible to lease a Tesla in Georgia?
Tesla wants you to pay for that deprecation when they come out with new toys.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
Yes, Tesla's depreciation is higher than most but in reality all leases factor in depreciation.
In reality, the costs of depreciation are factored into the monthly lease payments you'll make. If the dealer determines that your car has more than normal wear and tear on it, you'll be charged extra fees for repairs. Mileage, too, adds to the cost of a lease when you turn in the car. Most three-year leases allow for 36,000 to 45,000 miles over the life of the lease. Extra fees of anywhere from 5 to 20 cents per mile can really add up. Say you drive 3,000 miles more per year than your lease allows, and you're charged 20 cents per mile. When you turn your car in for a new lease, you'll have to pay an extra $1,800 on top of any fees you have to pay to begin the next lease.
I'd hate to be concerned about adding miles when I drive my vehicle. Once of the great things about owning a Tesla is you can drive from Vancouver to Florida, for example, for free on the Supercharger network. But that dynamic changes when it's a leased vehicle, especially if you do a lot of daily driving. Plus, there's peace of mind that comes with owning your own vehicle, rather than what really amounts to renting it. I guess if you take out a loan to buy your vehicle, you're renting it too, at least until it's paid off. That's why cash is king, as they say.
In reality, the costs of depreciation are factored into the monthly lease payments you'll make. If the dealer determines that your car has more than normal wear and tear on it, you'll be charged extra fees for repairs. Mileage, too, adds to the cost of a lease when you turn in the car. Most three-year leases allow for 36,000 to 45,000 miles over the life of the lease. Extra fees of anywhere from 5 to 20 cents per mile can really add up. Say you drive 3,000 miles more per year than your lease allows, and you're charged 20 cents per mile. When you turn your car in for a new lease, you'll have to pay an extra $1,800 on top of any fees you have to pay to begin the next lease.
I'd hate to be concerned about adding miles when I drive my vehicle. Once of the great things about owning a Tesla is you can drive from Vancouver to Florida, for example, for free on the Supercharger network. But that dynamic changes when it's a leased vehicle, especially if you do a lot of daily driving. Plus, there's peace of mind that comes with owning your own vehicle, rather than what really amounts to renting it. I guess if you take out a loan to buy your vehicle, you're renting it too, at least until it's paid off. That's why cash is king, as they say.
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RogerHScott
Active Member
If you take out a loan to buy your car you will have more cash than if you don't. So that would appear to be the more regal option.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
You can't have more cash by borrowing. You can only have less cash by borrowing. I guess in a physical sense of having bank notes in your hands you can, but really cash is equity or it's not cash. If someone hands me $1,000 in $100 notes, and I given them an IOU for $1,000, plus interest, in reality I have less cash in my hands than they have in their hands.
RogerHScott
Active Member
Cash is liquidity. Companies borrow their way out of "cash crunches" every day. Illiquid equity is definitely not cash. In your IOU
scenario, are you more or less able to buy things (up to $1000) after your transaction than before?
Canuck
Well-Known Member
After my transaction, the person borrowing the money is less able to buy things, and the lender is more able to buy things, in the long run, because eventually reality catches up to us all and the more debt someone has, the less they have to spend.
I don't look at borrowing as limiting the question the way you phrased it does. Of course, if I borrow $1,000 I have it to spend, but in reality I have less to spend than going in, after accounting for interest, and perhaps far less after accounting for depreciation if I am using the money to buy a Tesla.
In my view, your argument is flawed in that borrowing money to rescue a company, or for capital expenses, investments, etc. is mixing apples and oranges. If someone was taking out a mortgage to buy a revenue property, for example, then I would agree with you, a bank loan is not only good, it's very wise. Taking out a loan to buy a Tesla, however, is flushing money down the toilet, if you ask me. Buying a Tesla is flushing money down the toilet even without a bank loan. There's nothing wrong with that. I did that - and happily flushed. I just made sure I had the investment property first and then paid cash for the Tesla.
But what does any of this have to do with AP2.0? It belongs more here:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1322605/
RogerHScott
Active Member
You use words to mean different things than I do. That pretty much makes communication impossible. And, as you point out, this
isn't really the place to try to hash that out.
You also didn't get ($7500) right? My finance I will be getting a check back for my $2500 deposit. and getting a check from gov for $7500...
Getting $7500
or paying $11500...
Its more than a $18000 initial outlay. You are right
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