Why AP 2.0 Won't Be Here Soon, and It Won't Be What You Think It Is

[MarkS22]

This reasoning makes no sense to me. I'd never borrow money to buy an expensive vehicle that just depreciates rapidly -- even at 1.5% -- and I can't imagine someone like Warren Buffett saying that is a smart financial decision. Yes, some financial planners might tell you that makes sense, but they usually say that because they make money on people trying to make money and they themselves have less money than the clients they are advising. Wealthy investors know you need a range of investments from rental properties to stocks to money in the bank, the latter of which is making less than 1.5%. But you need those assets, and mortgages, before a bank loan for a Tesla. Then when you want to buy a toy and depreciating asset like a Tesla, you use that money in the bank, because your rental income and dividends will replenish it.

That's proper financial advice but it's a much more disciplined road than fooling yourself that borrowing money to buy a Tesla is smarter financial advice that buying one outright. That's laughable.

I'm not following. If you 're making a $100,000 purchase and Tesla (or anyone) will loan that to you at 1.5%, but you have investment vehicles than can make 2.5% on that $100,000... why would you give Tesla the full $100,000 in the beginning? The depreciation of the asset is irrelevant if, in both situations, you're purchasing the same asset.

 

[Canuck]

Your reasoning makes less sense.

Unless you think you may default on said asset... a loan is a loan.

You can't say this, then contradict yourself here:

Tax implications and whether you might fault on a separated asset is only reason for treating money different than money.

A loan is not a loan to someone who understands investing. I can't write off my Tesla loan but I can my rental property mortgage. BIG difference there!

Plus, once you have your loan on your Tesla, go try to get the tax deducible one needed for your rental property, and watch your rental property shrink.

Everyone has a cost of money and a rate at the can earn (averaged).

I have no idea what this means. What I do know is that the current prime rate in Canada is 2.7%. Banks will loan to you at that rate and lower. Why? You would say they are nuts since they can get a higher rate, right? No -- only with speculation they can.

Keep fooling yourself telling yourself that loaning money to buy a Tesla is sound financial advice. It's not.

 

[Bilen]

Called it?

Most likely!

 

[number12]

I'm not following. If you 're making a $100,000 purchase and Tesla (or anyone) will loan that to you at 1.5%, but you have investment vehicles than can make 2.5% on that $100,000... why would you give Tesla the full $100,000 in the beginning? The depreciation of the asset is irrelevant if, in both situations, you're purchasing the same asset.

Same point I made, but taxes and llcs limiting your liability if you "let your asset go" are valid counter points. For instance if car is tax deductible 3.5% loan might be justifiable vs a 2.5% loan that is not.

 

[Canuck]

I'm not following. If you 're making a $100,000 purchase and Tesla (or anyone) will loan that to you at 1.5%, but you have investment vehicles than can make 2.5% on that $100,000... why would you give Tesla the full $100,000 in the beginning? The depreciation of the asset is irrelevant if, in both situations, you're purchasing the same asset.

You've asked the wrong question because your question itself shrunk the playing field. If you want to make money you need to expand, not shrink, the playing field. You really need to read The Wealthy Barber to understand why loaning money to buy a vehicle is a bad financial decision even if you can borrow the money for less and invest the money for more.

 

[number12]

Keep fooling yourself telling yourself that loaning money to buy a Tesla is sound financial advice. It's not.

On real estate deals I average a 50% return for last 5 years and have never lost money. My last all cash Commerical deal yielded 250% in 3 months.

$100,000 cash might be the difference between me being able to make a cash offer vs slower financing offer and "make me" 50k. Keep flipping that over 5 year Tesla loan... then talk to me about 1.5% car loan being foolish.

Oh and by the way I write off my Tesla loan and deprecation. You have rental property and don't? Hm seems like we need to start from the beginning then.

 

[number12]

You've asked the wrong question because your question itself shrunk the playing field. If you want to make money you need to expand, not shrink, the playing field. You really need to read The Wealthy Barber to understand why loaning money to buy a vehicle is a bad financial decision even if you can borrow the money for less and invest the money for more.

We have a Dave Ramsey type cultist I presume. Anti debt is great for some people... usually those who do not know how to make money well and have a hard time not spending.

 

[Canuck]

On real estate deals I average a 50% return for last 5 years and have never lost money. My last all cash Commerical deal yielded 250% in 3 months.

$100,000 cash might be the difference between me being able to make a cash offer vs slower financing offer and "make me" 50k. Keep flipping that over 5 year Tesla loan... then talk to me about 1.5% car loan being foolish.

Oh and by the way I write off my Tesla loan and deprecation. You have rental property and don't? Hm seems like we need to start from the beginning then.

Seriously? First off, I have no Tesla loan to write off because I bought it cash. Second, even if I had a loan my Tesla is for personal use so I couldn't write it off.

With regard to my rental properties, it's been years since I've had mortgages but of course I deducted the interest from the income. People think "write-offs" mean something. What they really mean is that your profits are being eaten away by expenses or servicing debt. .

Finally, I don't need a Tesla loan to come up with $100k cash. That would be scary to me.

 

[Canuck]

Anti debt is great for some people....

I'm not anti debt at all. I used bank loans to build my business and to fund my rental properties.

... usually those who do not know how to make money well and have a hard time not spending.

I grew up poor, with not much food in the cupboards and I am self-made. I now employ a number of staff and I won't mention my net worth but I am certain it is much larger than yours. But thanks for telling me I don't know how to make money.

We have a Dave Ramsey type cultist

Nice ad hominem attack but you won't drag me into the gutter. Have a good evening.

 

[RogerHScott]

Finally, I don't need a Tesla loan to come up with $100k cash. That would be scary to me.

This would seem to imply that you have a much larger net worth than many in this discussion (either that, or you've got such a large
portion of your net worth sitting around in moldering cash that your retirement would be in jeopardy). Perhaps that is the basis of the
disagreement here? Your position may also be specific to the particular mix of investments that you have; that mix isn't necessarily
appropriate for everyone, and for those with different mixes the calculus may be different. I know in my case the most liquid assets
available to be turned into $100k cash were earning significantly better than 1.99%, so selling them in order to pay cash (which was,
I'll admit, my initial instinct) made no sense.

 

[number12]

I grew up poor, with not much food in the cupboards and I am self-made. I now employ a number of staff and I won't mention my net worth but I am certain it is much larger than yours. But thanks for telling me I don't know how to make money.

I'm under 30 yo - with how you talk about no debt.. I'm guessing you are twice my age. So you might have an unfair advantage as far as NET Worth goes. BUT I do know that I don't have to say things like mention my net worth, but since you brought it up.... jk

I never said you do not know how to make money. I said anti debt lessons are good for those people (maybe a select group of other people too). Just not me.

I'm literally the opposite of anti debt if you know what you are doing, which 90% of people don't.

I get online and see people post Dave Ramsey spew and cringe. I get defensive when hearing that babble so sorry if you took that the wrong way. It's not the way to true wealth... it's just good rhetoric to sell books to people who like to read about money (not make it).

 

[mhan00]

Soooooo, back to the topic, I was thinking AP2.0 when I read about this on electrek, but as someone else pointed out, Musk said product announcement. Is AP2.0 a product or a feature? Would Musk call AP 2.0 a product?

 

[number12]

Soooooo, back to the topic, I was thinking AP2.0 when I read about this on electrek, but as someone else pointed out, Musk said product announcement. Is AP2.0 a product or a feature? Would Musk call AP 2.0 a product?

If it's retrofitable. Or in EM speak nouns verbs and dates are all relative.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I have enough money to buy a Tesla without getting a loan. It's not sitting in the bank or under the mattress earning 0% interest. If you pull money out of your investments, you have to pay taxes on it, and then you also are no longer getting a return on that former investment. Canuck would you take a loan out if it was 0% interest? .5%? The last car I bought had 1% interest loan. I hardly even consider that a loan. That's practically free money. I have read The Wealthy Barber before. It was 25 years ago and rates were at least 8% back then. Sorry! We really hijacked this thread. lol

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

If it's retrofitable. Or in EM speak nouns verbs and dates are all relative.

I agree. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1772936/

 

[edb49]

I thought now would be a good time to update this post...

I put down a reservation on an X in 2014, and have ordered a P100D. Tesla haven't started producing RHD Xs yet, as far as we know, and even if they did start making them tomorrow then it would probably be towards the end of November I would get my car due to shipping, etc.

When I say "Autopilot 2.0", I am talking about the next iteration of hardware. Although far from certain, it seems likely that will be dual/triple front cameras and more radars around the car.

I am really keen to make sure I don't miss out on the next iteration of hardware. The software doesn't really matter to me; I will get that when everyone else does, but potentially I could take delivery of my car on a Monday, and the guy who takes delivery on the Tuesday has paid the same as me but has got the next iteration of hardware, which will inevitably be "better".

I think Troy's post was a good summary of the indicators towards hardware changes:

===== Troy =====
◘ In THIS video (after 39:35s) Elon basically confirmed that the Model 3 will have autopilot 2.0 hardware.
◘ Elon also said, "The Model S and the X are always going to be our technology leader." (source)
◘ And we know that the deadline for Model 3 suppliers is 1st July 2017. (source)

Therefore it is obvious that Model S and X will have autopilot 2.0 hardware before 1 July 2017. My best guess is January 2017.
===== /Troy =====

There are a few other data points I'd like to add though, that seems to have been missed so far.

1. USA Today reported Mobileye's CTO saying that it is best to end the relationship with Tesla by the end of this year. Source:
Tesla and key Autopilot supplier split up

2. The design studio in the UK for a X says "early 2017" delivery. In August, the last time I checked, it said "Feb 2017".

3. Tesla DS in the UK have said that Tesla were making the engineering changes necessary for RHD at the same time as some other general engineering changes.

4. The UK is one of the most conservative markets Tesla are in, in terms of pre-ordering. (A Tesla employee told me this.) To corroborate this, I was reservation #103 in the UK and I made it in Dec 2014 - compare this to the USA (albeit population 5 times higher).

5. Various sites have reported the reveal #2 of the Model 3 will be before the end of this year. As Troy pointed out above, it's likely this will have next iteration of hardware, and Tesla don't want the Model 3 to be superior in this respect to the S/X, so anything they bring to the 3 they'll bring to the S/X first.

So the analysis of this all:
The timing of (2) would indicate cars being produced end of Dec/early Jan. I don't think there is much of a queue for Xs in the UK due to (4). From (3), it would seem to be they're making changes that are more significant than just switching to RHD. From (1), Mobileye have have hinted that the supply (but not support) agreement with Tesla will come to an end this year.

My interest in this all is to make sure I don't miss out on new hardware by a matter of days/weeks. There is a certain safety net I have with the transit time - e.g. using as an example:
1) 1st Oct - Tesla build my car
2) 8th Oct - Tesla switch to next iteration of hardware
3) 9th Oct - Tesla build car for someone in California on TMC user johndoe1234
4) End Oct - johndoe1234 reports on forum new hardware

So before my car has reached the UK, I know it is obsolete. Obviously only applies for a certain window, I am not sure what I'd do in this scenario!

Some further things to add.

6. Tweet from EM about a new announcement on 17th Oct ht

7. Rumours from well-respected source that new cameras are already being fitted to cars

8. Lots of RHD VINs have been allocated in the last week or two (see Model X forum thread)

So it all the evidence seems to be lining up - the UK/RHD deliveries of the X will have AP 2.0. I am also going to make a guess that AP 2.0 will have some kind of driver alertness sensor, probably a camera pointing at the driver's face. This will then allow Tesla to undo the rather retrograde step of nags related to torque on the steering wheel that came with Firmware 8.0. You can bet that Tesla don't like the torque on the wheel thing; it doesn't really tell you if a driver is being attentive, and it's only a matter of time before there's a fatality where it's discovered someone had an elastic band or weight on the wheel to silence the nags and were watching a film instead of the road.

 

[hollywood]

Is your car in production?

Nope, pushed into mid-late November, ordered Oct 2.

 

[HankLloydRight]

7. Rumours from well-respected source that new cameras are already being fitted to cars

A twitter account with the name of "Model3Owners" is a "well-respected source"?

 

[edb49]

A twitter account with the name of "Model3Owners" is a "well-respected source"?

You may have a different opinion to mine... but I believe that Twitter account belongs to TrevP of Model 3 Owners Club, he founded the club and very active. Generally seems like a good guy with a few sources. Of course he could have been given wrong information but I think he's acting in good faith, and I did qualify my original point by saying it was a rumour.

The point is though, this is one in a number of data points... lots of things point to AP 2.0 hardware.

Edited to add:
He's been off the money a bit in the past, e.g. see here:
Autopilot 2.0 Information

Some of that's come true, some missed the mark a bit.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I also remember when Kevin Rose, a very "well-respected source" (at the time) said that his inside information directly from Apple was that the iPhone 5 was going to have a user-replaceable battery. Still waiting for that one.