Yep. But as I said, it's one of a number of independent data points. I'm not saying you should take the one source as infallible!I also remember when Kevin Rose, a very "well-respected source" (at the time) said that his inside information directly from Apple was that the iPhone 5 was going to have a user-replaceable battery. Still waiting for that one.
Why AP 2.0 Won't Be Here Soon, and It Won't Be What You Think It Is
- Thread starter Todd Burch
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RogerHScott
Active Member
He might if AP 2.0 is holding back demand for the S/X. He might simply announce that the cars bought since a certain date will get a hardware upgrade when it is ready.
But the announcement could just be a commercial Tesla Energy product.
MorrisonHiker
S 100D 2021.4.12
Maybe Tesla's "Tesla Vision" could be considered as a feature on a Tesla...but offered as a product that Tesla could sell to other car manufacturers?
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wdolson
Well-Known Member
Elon's Tweet said the product announcement is for something that few people are expecting. Maybe it's the Tesla watch?
My gut says it is too soon for autopilot 2.0 - signs seemed earlier to point to end of 2016.
I'm probably wrong however.
I'm probably wrong however.
They did a major push to unload their current inventory last month.
They did a modest price increase on AP - and there's a possibility cars being manufactured now have housings and wiring for AP 2.0.
And, because there is increased visibility of AP and concern about its safety, there is some urgency for Tesla to make a more significant improvement than just the 8.0 software (which Musk says is at the limit of what they can do with the current processors).
It would make sense if the October 17 announcement included AP 2.0. Though if they are planning to use the new NVidia Drive PX2 processors, those may not be available for awhile. So the announcement could be - cars being sold now are ready for AP 2.0 - and will be upgradable to both new sensors and the new supercomputer processors.
And, even if the AP 2.0 hardware isn't available now, that would likely have an impact on sales - for those of us who want their next car to have the next generation of AP.
They did a modest price increase on AP - and there's a possibility cars being manufactured now have housings and wiring for AP 2.0.
And, because there is increased visibility of AP and concern about its safety, there is some urgency for Tesla to make a more significant improvement than just the 8.0 software (which Musk says is at the limit of what they can do with the current processors).
It would make sense if the October 17 announcement included AP 2.0. Though if they are planning to use the new NVidia Drive PX2 processors, those may not be available for awhile. So the announcement could be - cars being sold now are ready for AP 2.0 - and will be upgradable to both new sensors and the new supercomputer processors.
And, even if the AP 2.0 hardware isn't available now, that would likely have an impact on sales - for those of us who want their next car to have the next generation of AP.
TPMD: Tesla Portable Mobility Device. It is a Segway with Autopilot...and a cupholder. it is the first Tesla product to actually feature Maximum Plaid. Really obvious if you stop to think about it.
RogerHScott
Active Member
For what its worth, I asked my OA about the Oct 17th event and I was told it was "probably" a Tesla Energy event. I realize the stores / galleries are likely to be last in finding out info from Corporate but this particular OA has been with Tesla for 4 years and started in Freemont and has a strong network there. Still hoping its AP 2.0 though!
doublebo7
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MarkS22
Member
I'll put myself out there, but a Twitter announced "product" without a major press event can't be Autopilot 2.0. My case:
- They'd want to do the demo videos like AP 1.0 with the P85D. Put people in the car, show it in action. What are they going to do? Waste that attention with a press release and an in-house demo video? AP 2.0 with anything closer to Level 4 will be major news.
- He wouldn't call it a "product." AP 2.0 is an integrated sensor suite and software. AP 1.0 has never been referred to as a product. I highly doubt he's going to copy GeoHot and make a standalone aftermarket Autopilot. Why remove a feature from a premiere EV so an ICE user has less reason to switch? How does that fit his roadmap? That could only hurt or delay higher-margin Tesla sales.
- He wouldn't say AP 2.0 is "unexpected by most." On Electrek.co, 40% of 7,046 votes think it's AP 2.0. How is that "unexpected by most"? (And, no, saying "Well, 60% don't think it's AP 2.0 doesn't count." ) Elon knows the expectations. With a carefully crafted Tweet, why waste those words if it's literally the most expected thing by far.
- There's a followup ten days later with Tesla/SolarCity. You're not going to give AP 2.0 only a week of exclusive press before making another announcement.
- Look at the timeline: There's a shareholder merger vote on November 17th. AP 2.0 does nothing to move that forward. I believe the two events will be related to the merger. For example, system for car battery powering the home (in conjunction with a soft hint at SuperCharger payments). The key to the entire future of Elon's vision for the company is solidifying the link between Tesla the car/battery company and SolarCity. AP 2.0 doesn't do that. Another "product" might.
- Firmware 8.0 is just out for a couple weeks. Why would they lock in an entire sensor suite for another couple years without even turning on the radar-based whitelisting to see how it does first?
RogerHScott
Active Member
Do we really have to wait that long?
You build a strong case - have to say I think you are probably right.
I agree with Mark's conclusions about this NOT being an AP 2.0 announcement. Even though the timeframe fits both as "end of the year" and after a blowout quarter -- it seems unlikely given the last-minute nature of the event and the fact that Elon stated at All Things D that if he talked about it (then) it would be "really big news".
I expect AP 2.0 to contain enough hardware to be ultimately capable of ~L4 self-driving, which, if true, will mean that Tesla will deliver end-user L4 hardware years ahead of everyone else, even if it's only operating at L2 while the system learns and improves. This should be enormous news.
Further, I suspect Elon would love to bundle the AP 2.0 event with the Model 3 2nd reveal, if the timelines aligned (maybe late December). To me, that's the original iPhone "Are you getting it??" moment and an immediate race toward 750K reservations. It's staggering how much mindshare that one fusion of reveals would create.
For next week, I honestly have no idea what the announcement could be, but I suspect it'll be somewhat disappointing considering the general expectation-level.
I expect AP 2.0 to contain enough hardware to be ultimately capable of ~L4 self-driving, which, if true, will mean that Tesla will deliver end-user L4 hardware years ahead of everyone else, even if it's only operating at L2 while the system learns and improves. This should be enormous news.
Further, I suspect Elon would love to bundle the AP 2.0 event with the Model 3 2nd reveal, if the timelines aligned (maybe late December). To me, that's the original iPhone "Are you getting it??" moment and an immediate race toward 750K reservations. It's staggering how much mindshare that one fusion of reveals would create.
For next week, I honestly have no idea what the announcement could be, but I suspect it'll be somewhat disappointing considering the general expectation-level.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
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stealthology
Member
My 2 cents:
- This would be a pretty major demand lever for Q4 (if you're an investor, you know). As we know, Elon is doing all he can to support the S.P. of his company now from all the flak BS in the media about the SolarCity merger and separate capital raise for Model 3.
- Electrek, a very respected source, said in its article just two days ago that it looks like a real possibility that the tweet is AP2.0.
- On 8/11, it was reported that Tesla already wrote the software required to run the currently available features of AP on the new hardware. From there, it's all OTA improvements.
- NVIDIA's DRIVE PX2 (which can support level 4) has just recently been released.
- Several components (8/11/16) have already made it into production cars, like wiring harnesses and the triple cameras.
- Tesla has a history of quietly building cars with next gen AP, then making the announcement & gradually developing the features through OTA updates.
- As stated previously, Elon has said X & S will always be the technology leaders (vs Model 3).
- As stated previously, AP increased by $500 recently.
- All US deliveries have been moved to December.
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