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Why Autopilot Safety Claims are BS

ProtonSF

Member
May 19, 2018
65
39
San Francisco
Let's see if I can clarify your point:

  • Driver A is running Autopilot for 1000 miles. Every time he sees a risky situation (that has nothing to do with Autopilot's behavior) he disengages Autopilot and handles the situation himself (total 10 miles). He never crashes
  • Driver B is running Autopilot for 1000 miles. Every time he sees a risky situation (that has nothing to do with Autopilot's behavior) he disengages Autopilot and handles the situation himself (total 10 miles). He crashes once
  • Driver C is running manually for 1000 miles. He never crashes
  • Driver D is running manually for 1000 miles. He crashes once
  • Driver E is running Autopilot for 1000 miles. AP never crashes
  • Driver F is running Autopilot for 1000 miles. Driver does nothing in crash-imminent situation. AP crashes once
  • Driver G is running Autopilot for 1000 miles. One crash-imminent situation occurs due to AP. He disengages 2 seconds before the crash. Crash occurs
  • Driver H is running Autopilot for 1000 miles. One crash-imminent situation occurs due to AP. He disengages 6 seconds before the crash. Crash occurs, enough criteria are met that Tesla doesn't count it as AP caused

Result:
Driver A: 1000 miles on Autopilot. 10 miles non-Autopilot. Zero crashes AP. Zero crashes non-AP
Driver B: 1000 miles on Autopilot. 10 miles non-Autopilot. Zero crashes AP. One crash non-AP
Driver C: 0 miles on Autopilot. 1000 miles non-Autopilot. N/A crashes AP. Zero crashes non-AP
Driver D: 0 miles on Autopilot. 1000 miles non-Autopilot. N/A crashes AP. One crash non-AP
Driver E: 1000 miles on Autopilot. 0 miles non-Autopilot. Zero crashes AP. N/A crashes non-AP
Driver F: 1000 miles on Autopilot. 0 miles non-Autopilot. One crash AP. N/A crashes non-AP
Driver G: 999.98 miles on Autopilot. 0.02 miles non-Autopilot. One crash AP. Zero crashes non-AP
Driver H: 999.95 miles on Autopilot. 0.05 miles non-Autopilot. Zero crashes AP. One crash non-AP

Analysis:
Driver A and B are skewing the data. They are letting AP run during safe times but taking over during risky times. They are not letting AP take responsibility for handling the risk
Driver C, D, E, and F are either taking full responsibility or letting AP take full responsibility. Any crashes are assigned appropriately
Driver G has an AP crash that is assigned appropriately to AP
Driver H is Tesla skewing the data. It has an AP crash that is not assigned to AP. Tesla assumes 6 seconds is enough time that the driver should have avoided the crash

If a lot of drivers act like A and B then AP gets the benefit of all the good miles and none of the crashes. Drivers A and B have skewed the data themselves and made AP look better.
Drivers C, D, E, F, and G are correctly recorded statistics.
If there are many situations like with Driver H then Tesla has skewed the data and AP gets no penalty for crashes that it caused.

ProtonSF is that what you meant?


That was the long route, but yeah that is my point.
 

sperkin

Member
Mar 23, 2017
860
870
Los Angeles, CA
Did you miss the part about how Tesla drivers are on average older, and therefore, generally safer drivers? Again, until Tesla provides full data transparency, no real conclusions can be made.

Not true, lots of younger people buying Model 3. Also, I am old and I drive my Model 3 much much faster than my Prius. I chill in AP, but when it pisses me off for during dumb stuff, I take over and drive very poorly. I wish AP could drive 100% of the time so I don't take over. I actually feel unsafe when I take over. The car is just too damn fast and fun.
 

croman

Active Member
Nov 21, 2016
4,724
6,713
Chicago, IL
If you think illiteracy about statistics is troubling, the same users ignore reality over and over about anything if it doesn't fit the pre programmed narrative for Tesla.
 

ohmman

Plaid-ish Moderator
Feb 13, 2014
10,038
18,179
North Bay, CA
Moderator Note: Some posts were moved to snippiness. There were posts with personal attacks, and some posts responding to/quoting that post had to also be moved away since they were orphaned. Likewise with posts that quoted/responded to those posts. Just because your post was moved doesn't mean it was snippy, but it'll be obvious if yours was.

Please try to address the argument, not the member.
 

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