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Why bother to pre-order the new Model 3 (or whatever it is called now)

They had my deposit for 3.5 years when their risk of failure was many fold times what it is now. What's your point? And yet GM got bailed out to the tune of billions of dollars and Tesla didn't. If Tesla can get capital to work with and people are willing to give them an interest free loan then I don't see the problem. Again, good try.
I'm not into finance. As far as I know junk status on corp bonds does not mean an imminent default. So, basically, you and I are simply lucky. (hope to get my check soon)
 
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Reread the underlined.

BMW Group U.S. Reports July 2014 Sales
3/4 Series | YTD July 2014 | 69,154

To keep it simple, let's assume linear sales by month...
69154 * 12 / 7 = 118,550

10% of ^ = 11,855 sales of Model 3 is higher than cfttester thinks? What a small thinker!

If Tesla can't sell more than 11,855 Model 3 per year (annualized once deliveries start) I'll be very surprised.
BMW and Mini sold 395,850 cars in 2014. BMW Group U.S. Reports December and 2014 Sales
 
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So your idea of helping a friend seems to be the equivalent of kicking them in the nuts repeatedly. With friends like that....
I guess your idea of a good friend is strangely resembling a helicopter parent model. "Oh dear, don't worry, you are ok. You are so smart and beautiful, you will succeed next time" :). I'm not sure your approach is better :)
 
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Other manufacturers haven't shown aggressiveness for innovative features like autopilot. Let's see if they will add it in future in their cars.
You meant - Innovative naming of features and aggressive hipe riding.
Because pretty much all other manufacturers have Active Collision Avoidance as well as Active Cruise Control and Lane Departure Warning (some with correction). None of them have Autopilot in production and, sadly, this include Tesla too.

Cars That Can Save Your Life - Consumer Reports
 
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Yggdrasill

Active Member
Feb 29, 2012
4,107
7,192
Kongsberg, Norway
Not only that. IMHO the expectation for the Model 3, that it will be 2 inch shorter Model S with all features included for a half of the price.
Again, IMHO it's slightly unrealistic.
I don't think very many people is expecting that. But it will have most of the features of the Model S at a significantly lower price.

This works by increasing volume and simplifying the production process. For instance, you probably won't see the automatically extending door handles on the Model 3. And going from 50k units on the Model S to 350k units on the Model 3 means more favourable supplier costs, a greater number of cars to divide the development costs by and all sorts of other benefits. The gigafactory is also a major element, cutting battery pack costs significantly.
 
Tesla has not added consumer cost to software/firmware upgrades of their vehicles. When creep was added, did the cost of the base of Model S rise for all new orders based on that? When hill hold was added? When summon was added? When any number of dozens of other updates happened? There was a cost when AP hardware was added to the vehicles, but not with the continuing OTA updates.
Summon was only added for those who had already paid for AutoPilot as it was a promised feature of AutoPilot when they first showed it off (I think that was at the "Elon shows his D" event. :) The other things you mention are minor improvements that did not require the kind of effort, testing and long term development of AutoPilot.

Tesla has added value to all vehicles, in many cases, at no additional cost to the consumer. There's no reason to think this won't continue with Model ≡.
I fully believe Model 3 will be internet-ready and will enjoy the same kind of updates and improvements that the S and X have been getting: like fixes to seat controls and tweaks and enhancements to existing features. This is not the same as giving away AutoPilot (and self-parking and Summon, which are all part of the AutoPilot package) for free.

Yep, it technically costs Tesla to do that just as it costs Tesla to put up new SuperChargers and expand existing ones, but it's not affecting the profit margin of the vehicles to do it. It was vehicle profit margin that was being discussed.
That's where I disagree. The profit margin for the car has to consider all of the costs associated with the car, including software development and (in my opinion) Supercharger build-out. I also think they'll charge for Supercharger access on the Model 3 because it will take a lot of money to keep building out the supercharger network to accommodate the huge increase in Supercharger demand that will come when there are two, three or ten times the number of Teslas on the road. In my (admittedly rough) estimation, the current US supercharger network has cost Tesla somewhere between $1500 and $2000 per car sold. If they can get the actual materials and assembly cost of the car low enough that they can throw in lifetime Supercharging for free, I'll be (happily) surprised.

We'll find out eventually how it all plays out.
Agreed. But maybe not next week. Options pricing probably won't be announced until much closer to the actual production rollout..
 

Yggdrasill

Active Member
Feb 29, 2012
4,107
7,192
Kongsberg, Norway
S- Class
2013 13,303
2014 25,276
2015 21,934

BMW 7 series lost about 500/year in 2015 vs 2014 because the new 7 series released
How do you explain all the others?

There are of course other factors involved, but in all probability, Tesla is stealing sales right across the board. Without the Model S, the S class might have sold:

2013 13,303
2014 25,276
2015 27,000

Of course, we will never know exactly how many sales were stolen.
 

ankitmishra

Member
Sep 1, 2015
336
58
India
You meant - Innovative naming of features and aggressive hipe riding.
Because pretty much all other manufacturers have Active Collision Avoidance as well as Active Cruise Control and Lane Departure Warning (some with correction). None of them have Autopilot in production and, sadly, this include Tesla too.

Cars That Can Save Your Life - Consumer Reports
Autopilot is not cruise control. It includes auto steer too. And it has been rated the best. I am not talking about collision avoidance etc. Tesla had autopilot, please check your facts. Other features include beautiful design, performance, fast charging network, spacious interior, 5 star safety rating, improvements in features by OTA software updates, low drag coefficient, auto doors, summon, best battery management, best drive train, best customer satisfaction, best service etc.
 

dsm363

Roadster + Sig Model S
May 17, 2009
18,279
160
Nevada
I'm not into finance. As far as I know junk status on corp bonds does not mean an imminent default. So, basically, you and I are simply lucky. (hope to get my check soon)
And you're also worried that a company that is valued in the billions of dollars will fail in the next few days and you won't get your deposit back? It you are genuinely here to 'warn' I think most of us are fine. I'm starting do doubt your intentions to 'warn' us about the reservation process. Reserving a product and then waiting for it is nothing new. The deposit is refundable.

I'm not into finance. As far as I know junk status on corp bonds does not mean an imminent default. So, basically, you and I are simply lucky. (hope to get my check soon)
So Tesla had a junk bond rating from one rating agency back in early 2014. You're saying they still have that rating and you're worried the entire company will collapse in the next day or two before your deposit comes back? You live in a different reality that others do I guess.

And how you supposedly went from a Model X reservation that you decided to cancel for some reason to being a hero of the reservation holders and trying to warn us about the dangers of putting $1,000 on a product that isn't out yet is beyond me.
 
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hdgmedic

Member
Sep 29, 2015
59
40
US
Based on what I have been reading, I somehow find this quote appropriate :
".......... what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
 
I'm surprised everyone is indulging this person who obviously loves to stir the pot. This will go to 40 pages of argument if we keep it up. Not a very good use of anyone's time, including the OP. Either buy a 3 or don't. If you think a highly-optioned 3 will be $70k+ like a base S you're seriously high on something. And 'knowing' that the SC network won't be allowed on the 3 is ignorant. Well, a lot of the statements in this article seem to follow suit. It's an entertaining read, sure, but I think you're just trolling the board.
 

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