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Why Cramer Is Right To Call Tesla A 'Sell'

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There was another article about how electric ars will never take off, here on Seeking Alpha.

I highlight here the gist of the arguments about why Tesla shares should be a "sell" but read on to the much better (and very funny!) reply from a Tesla owner John James Lord in the comments section:

1. A new Reuters article states: "The limitations of the electric cars right now are all well known," said Houchois. "They will not be replacing combustion engines anytime soon. A lot of people aren't going to replace their cars with electric cars. The industry is reluctant too. Every electric car you sell is a combustion car you don't sell."

2. Tesla has reported losses, and analysts expect the losses to continue into 2012. Auto sales estimates for almost all makers are coming down substantially, so it's very likely that Tesla might not sell as many cars in 2012 as some previously expected. Plus, in a tough economy, consumers are less likely to buy expensive cars from a relatively new automaker.

3. Green jobs have been a huge disappointment for many, and some green company stocks ranging from solar to wind have been in a very sharp downtrend. The market correction has taken the air out of many stocks in the green sector. The business realities and major losses have turned many high profile, promising green companies into huge disappointments for investors in certain stocks, such as Evergreen Solar (ESLRQ), which now trades on the pink sheets for about 11 cents. A company once visited and praised by Obama, Solyndra received hundreds of millions of dollars from government agencies, and the company recently filed for bankruptcy.

4. Oil prices have been dropping, and that makes gas much more affordable. Plus, as the Reuters article outlines, automakers are making so many refinements to weight, fuel efficiency and other factors that regular cars and hybrids are narrowing the gap with electric vehicles.

5. Tesla shares have been in a downtrend and do not appear to have found a solid bottom. The stock is only about $3 away from possibly hitting new 52-week lows.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Here is the answer from a Roadster owner:

I agree with you on so many of your points.

1.) Limitations; if we all drove electric vehicles what would we do with all that foreign oil, the big oil companies, and auto companies too big to fail? I see your point we need the internal combustion engine at 15% energy conversion efficiency. Where can I buy a good old horse and carriage these days?

2.) Yes, Tesla has reported and will continue reporting losses for the next two years and we all know that the end of the world is predicted by many to happen in 2012 anyway. Who knows Tesla might even do what GM did to its previous shareholders; go belly up, get the taxpayers to bail them out and then issue a new IPO.

3.) I never liked green, I think that building mountains of non-recycled wastes outside of our cities is a great idea. Building these scenic mountain keeps a lot of waste haulers in business. If we had vehicles that only had tires and batteries to wear out, people might not replace their cars as often and that would diminish our resource of scrap iron.

4.) I've noticed that too. Oil prices have been dropping just a few cents in the past several weeks. At his rate by next summer it might cost me less than $150 to fill my GMC Suburban. When I was younger going to college we used to have gas pump wars and I remember filling up my 68 Chevy for $0.26 per gallon. If we are lucky we might have another war in the middle east and we might be able to fill our cars up at $10.00 per gallon.

5.) Yes, Tesla has been in a down trend for the past few weeks along with the rest of the market. Sure wish it would drop some more below everyone's puts so I can pick up some more Tesla stock at a great price.

Disclosure: I am an optimistic realist. I own a Tesla and you could not imagine how much fun it is to drive one. Sadly enough I was one of those unfortunate investors that got in on the IPO at $17.00 per share.

Thank you for your very objective and humorous article. Good humor these days is really hard to come by especially in the stock market. - John!

Round of applause to John; wonder if he's a forum member?
 
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Okay, I'm commenting here just because I feel like it...

1. A new Reuters article states: "The limitations of the electric cars right now are all well known," said Houchois. "They will not be replacing combustion engines anytime soon. A lot of people aren't going to replace their cars with electric cars. The industry is reluctant too. Every electric car you sell is a combustion car you don't sell."

Yeah, and that article was poorly researched, too.

2. Tesla has reported losses, and analysts expect the losses to continue into 2012.

Yeah, as planned and explicitly stated by Tesla from the outset. Why do you think they went to the stock market if they weren't planning to spend all that money on something?

3. Green jobs have been a huge disappointment for many, and some green company stocks ranging from solar to wind have been in a very sharp downtrend. The market correction has taken the air out of many stocks in the green sector. The business realities and major losses have turned many high profile, promising green companies into huge disappointments for investors in certain stocks, such as Evergreen Solar (ESLRQ), which now trades on the pink sheets for about 11 cents. A company once visited and praised by Obama, Solyndra received hundreds of millions of dollars from government agencies, and the company recently filed for bankruptcy.

Uh, relevance??? "The apple market is down, so we expect oranges to do badly, too."

4. Oil prices have been dropping, and that makes gas much more affordable. Plus, as the Reuters article outlines, automakers are making so many refinements to weight, fuel efficiency and other factors that regular cars and hybrids are narrowing the gap with electric vehicles.

That is a short-term trend. Oil prices mid-term and long-term are going way up as supplies get restricted and demand from India and China booms. That is unavoidable.

5. Tesla shares have been in a downtrend and do not appear to have found a solid bottom.

Probably because poorly-informed people like you keep talking it down. Keep at it! Maybe if it drops enough I'll be able to pick up some shares.
 
Cramer's job is to create churn, keeping him in a job. If his advice was actually good he would take it and be rich and stop giving advice.

1. The auto industry is scared of electric cars because they won't wear out and need replacing, nor have high maintenance costs - generating service revenue.

2. We won't know til at least 2013 or later if Tesla is successful - even when Tesla sells all the cars, their margins depend on execution and long term quality.
If you expect to profit on Tesla shares in 2012, you bought the wrong stock.

3. In any new industry there will be faliures and successes. Failures are good because it means new things are being tried.

4. Despite short term volatility, oil can only go up until it is replaced as an energy source. Demand exceeds supply.

5. See #2
 
Okay, I'm commenting here just because I feel like it...

That is a short-term trend. Oil prices mid-term and long-term are going way up as supplies get restricted and demand from India and China booms. That is unavoidable.
I agree with all your points except that one about oil prices. I don't think oil will go up in price any faster than the general rate of inflation. Why? First, I think the current price already reflects the scarcity of oil. Second, I think new technology will reduce demand for oil. That will be true globally including the emerging economies you mentioned with short-term rising demand. Oil will continue to be volatile, but I don't see the long-term price curve deviating much from general inflation after smoothing. As a Roadster owner, I hope I'm wrong!

The current price already appears higher than the market will bear. After several years of average 15 to 20% price increases, the market is reacting. But reducing oil use takes time, so most of the change doesn't happen overnight. Other than starting to drive less, there isn't much that you can do right away. It takes time for people to replace their cars with smaller more efficient models and to install solar panels and insulate buildings or build new ones. That's my .02 on oil prices. Most people disagree with me on this and frankly I hope they're right!
 
1. The auto industry is scared of electric cars because they won't wear out and need replacing, nor have high maintenance costs - generating service revenue.

Aside from not being clear which effect you see this as having on the stock, they are surely also scared to loose the advantage of having a know-how that's not easy to achieve: the know-how of mass-producing ICE's.

2. We won't know til at least 2013 or later if Tesla is successful - even when Tesla sells all the cars, their margins depend on execution and long term quality.
If you expect to profit on Tesla shares in 2012, you bought the wrong stock.

Lots of industry experts are still saying that Tesla won't be able to build the Model S for the price, not well, or not on schedule. That skepticism is built into the current stock price. I'd expect this skepticism to resolve 3rd quarter 2012. We'll learn in those quarterly reports what the actual margins are. Will the stock market response wait until "long term" quality is proven?

3. In any new industry there will be faliures and successes. Failures are good because it means new things are being tried.

Which means? There are also failures in old industries, see necessary bailouts. Those companies can get into trouble again, once they will be allowed, again, to follow their own stubbornness.

4. Despite short term volatility, oil can only go up until it is replaced as an energy source. Demand exceeds supply.

That and more: Washington and Military seeking independence, the economists seeking to improve the trade balance.
 
Oil price is up an average 8% per year over the last 10 years and 10% average per year over the last 6 years ( I averaged the yearly percentage increase compared to 10 years ago for each day of 10 years and 6 years recpectively ). This is significantly higher than inflation and there is no indication that this will slow down - it will most likely increase.
This is because supply has peaked and demand is still increasing.

Consumption:
Consumption in China is increasing at over 7% per year. China will pass the U.S. as the number 1 consumer of oil in the world by 2020 if U.S. demand stays flat.

The U.S. only turns over about a small percentage ( less than 5% ) of the car fleet every year. Even if the average fuel economy of new cars doubles over the next 10 years, any reduction in total demand is too little - too late.

I don't think that technology can slow consumption - non-western world demand ( driven by China and India and others ) will increase faster than technology can reduce consumption.

Production:
World production capacity is falling. Production in Mexico, Norway, UK, Venezuela, Nigeria, Indonesia is falling fast. Indonesia joined Opec in 1962 but ceased to be an oil exporter in 2004, many other countries will follow suit soon.
In fact Saudi oil production is in danger of falling ( read Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons )
We are using up the cheap to produce and refine light sweet crude, and bringing new expensive heavy oil to market.

Full disclosure: I am long in oil stocks and intend to profit from the rising price, while driving electric and using none.
 
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1. The auto industry is scared of electric cars because they won't wear out and need replacing, nor have high maintenance costs - generating service revenue.

I see this point brought up often and I wonder how valid it is. Many manufacturers offer free service on their vehicles and are getting more reliable and efficient. I'm not sure I see service revenue as a huge threat, especially when dealerships can adapt and sell battery swaps, charging time, service on things like tires and wipers etc
 
I see this point brought up often and I wonder how valid it is. Many manufacturers offer free service on their vehicles and are getting more reliable and efficient. I'm not sure I see service revenue as a huge threat, especially when dealerships can adapt and sell battery swaps, charging time, service on things like tires and wipers etc

The manufacturers probably don't care all that much. It's the dealers who would be concerned, as they make almost nothing on the sale of the car. Their profit is all in the service.

Of course pundits will make this point and then out of the other side of their mouth point out the huge cost of battery replacement, or the risks of an untried technology.
 
replacing car sales

Going back to Cramers statement:
Every electric car you sell is a combustion car you don't sell.

I would never acquire a luxury ICE, in spite of dreaming of supercars when I was a little boy. Gas consumption and emissions is prohibitive in my green mind. This surely is a minority position!
Currently we use a small Toyota to haul the family around. Next car will be a Model S with >= 230 mile pack.
Conclusion: In my case, selling a $67k EV replaces a $15k ICE. Which car maker would not jump on that?
 
To play devil's advocate: An automaker that doesn't think the consumer would jump on that (and let's face it, most won't).
Actually I'm not quite sure that isn't the truth in some places. Here in Norway it seems quite a few are willing to jump on higher value EVs than ICE cars. Partly that's because of our incentives it's possible to get a good brand new EV for a much smaller price than a similar ICE vehicle. And access to HOV lanes is worth almost 2 hours each day in reduced commute for some areas of Oslo. Hence many that have usually bought a 5-10 year old ICE vehicle as their secondary car is trading that for a brand new MiEV or LEAF. I'm probably trading my $3500 1996 Civic for a Model S when it's available, that's a huge leap in cost. I would never buy another new ICE vehicle though if my current ICE clunker dies it will be replace with a 1998-1999 Civic I suppose :)

So in Europe there seems to be a few that will stretch far for a functional/good/luxury EV but wouldn't want to sink that much money into any regular ICE car. After all in Norway a VW Golf TDI with similar equipment as the Leaf costs almost $12 500 more than the LEAF.

Cobos
 
So in Europe there seems to be a few that will stretch far for a functional/good/luxury EV but wouldn't want to sink that much money into any regular ICE car. After all in Norway a VW Golf TDI with similar equipment as the Leaf costs almost $12 500 more than the LEAF.

Cobos

That's insane. Yes, market conditions would definitely play a part. In the US ICE cars tend to be cheaper even with the incentives. At the same time though, we don't have many pure EVs here