I'll chip in on this, just for kicks. Hopefully some of my thoughts are
not totally out of whack. (Please correct me if I am wrong!)
1. A new Reuters article states: "The limitations of the electric cars right now are all well known," said Houchois. "They will not be replacing combustion engines anytime soon. A lot of people aren't going to replace their cars with electric cars. The industry is reluctant too. Every electric car you sell is a combustion car you don't sell."
Limitations? Apparently they haven't seen the multiple road trips done my Roadster owners using
only their Roadster. The EV obviously isn't going to replace the combustion engine overnight but, as the saying goes, the writing is on the wall.
2. Tesla has reported losses, and analysts expect the losses to continue into 2012. Auto sales estimates for almost all makers are coming down substantially, so it's very likely that Tesla might not sell as many cars in 2012 as some previously expected. Plus, in a tough economy, consumers are less likely to buy expensive cars from a relatively new automaker.
So far the reservations seem to be going OK and no one outside of Tesla (AFAIK) has even
ridden inside a Model S yet. I'd bet that Model S reservations will
increase once the public has access to test rides or drives. Also, unless Model S has
major issues in the quality department I don't see the "new automaker" label getting in the way. The Roadster sold well despite the price tag, initial issues
and the economy.
3. Green jobs have been a huge disappointment for many, and some green company stocks ranging from solar to wind have been in a very sharp downtrend. The market correction has taken the air out of many stocks in the green sector. The business realities and major losses have turned many high profile, promising green companies into huge disappointments for investors in certain stocks, such as Evergreen Solar (ESLRQ), which now trades on the pink sheets for about 11 cents. A company once visited and praised by Obama, Solyndra received hundreds of millions of dollars from government agencies, and the company recently filed for bankruptcy.
I'm not sure what a solar company has to do with Tesla. That seems like comparing an apple to a watermelon to me (yes, not even an apple-to-orange comparison). I don't know much on the Solyndra issue but that just seems like a case of fraud and/or horrible management.
4. Oil prices have been dropping, and that makes gas much more affordable. Plus, as the Reuters article outlines, automakers are making so many refinements to weight, fuel efficiency and other factors that regular cars and hybrids are narrowing the gap with electric vehicles.
Oil prices are only down due to world economic factors, not supply. Oil is also becoming harder and harder to find. In the meantime China is well on it's way to using more oil than the U.S. and India is also greatly increasing their oil usage. Increasing demand of anything with a finite supply eventually means (extremely) high prices.
Also what "gap" are they talking about? Efficiency? It's kind of hard to make a ~35% (hybrid) car compete with a 88% efficient EV (
according to Tesla). Even if a pipe-dream 55% efficient ICE doesn't complete with an EV.
5. Tesla shares have been in a downtrend and do not appear to have found a solid bottom. The stock is only about $3 away from possibly hitting new 52-week lows.
Wall Street lives quarter by quarter. I would actually be shocked (no pun intended) if Tesla didn't get near or below it's 52-week low before Model S is released. Until it's release Tesla won't make much money since the Roadster is (almost?) sold out.
The Leaf is first officially launched in october here, and should sell like crazy. Not to mention that Tesla has stepped up the plans for a showroom here in Norway...
