Why did you cancel your Model 3 reservation?

[aviators99]

I'll tell you why I canceled mine. I reserved my Model S in 2009. I had never agreed to tie up money for that long for anything before (and I didn't even realize it would be 3 years instead of the 1.5 I expected).

One of the things that kept me going while waiting the three years was knowing my reservation sequence number. I knew that whenever normal production models started coming off the line, mine would be the 140th one. It's silly, really, that this was so important to me, but it was. It's one of those psychological things. I suppose if I didn't have a very early sequence number, it would have had the opposite effect.

I've called several people at Tesla and asked my local people here, and they don't think we will get sequence numbers for a very long time. I just don't like tying up even a much smaller amount of money without something to follow. My number could be anywhere up to 100,000, for all I know. For the Model S, Tesla played some games with sequence numbers as it was (I got my car before some Signatures). Without an actual sequence number to see, there isn't even be a way for us geeks here to even notice these games (if they don't *ever* give sequence numbers, which I think is a possibility). There's hardly any question that I'll buy the car (for one or both of my kids). But I guess I'll be in the 2nd wave of owners, instead of the first.

Again, I know it's a silly reason, but it is what it is. That's why I canceled my pre-order.

 

[Jayc]

Well at least you are lucky to own a Model S and maybe you didn't feel as desperate (and determined) as some of us to wait.

I do however agree that Tesla do owe its reservation holders an estimated configuration date - at least a vague one. Maybe they will give an indication during reveal 2.

 

[Xaff]

By second wave of owners, you mean sometime in 2019, right? Because I'm pretty sure that's when they'll be done with all the reservations for Model 3.

Personally, I'm happy with the "most likely" delivery date of Q4 2017 that Elon Musk gave for those that pre-ordered pre-reveal and 2018 for those that pre-ordered later. Would I like to know what order I am in the overall queue? Absolutely, but it's not going to convince me to cancel my reservation.

 

[CmdrThor]

Your sequence number is the date you placed your reservation, there are just a lot of people who share the same sequence number.

They've already said deliveries will happen for highly optioned configs and west coast buyers first, so sequence number doesn't mean all that much.

 

[M0DEL³]

I'll tell you why I canceled mine. I reserved my Model S in 2009. I had never agreed to tie up money for that long for anything before (and I didn't even realize it would be 3 years instead of the 1.5 I expected)...

Again, I know it's a silly reason, but it is what it is. That's why I canceled my pre-order.

That's an interesting rational and I can understand it. Personally wait time doesn't bother me much. I have not canceled my deposit so my response here might not be au pro po. I have never equated my deposit to an actual order, but rather simply renting a "place somewhere in the line" for the minimal cost of the lost interest income on $1K - these days that's a pretty cheap ticket. I've also never equated my deposit as a decision to prosecute an order. While I may hope it plays out in that way, there remains sufficient unknowns about this vehicle that I consider it unwise to execute a preemptive purchase mindset at this point in the process. I mentioned to a friend the other day, I currently see it as a 50-50 coin-toss that I might eventually order a Model 3. Features, prices, timelines, and other competing products will all factor in before that decision get's made.

If I was forced to make a decision today, based on only the information currently available, I would have to pass of ordering the Model 3. I live about 200 miles from a SC, and am not yet confident as to Tesla's long term reliability. (Coming from a long string of highly reliable Toyota's) The Model X launch did not reinforce confidence on that front.

Fortunately, I'm not in the position of having to make that decision today, and remain hopeful that when that day comes I will have a stronger data set that justifies pulling the trigger rather than continuing to keep waiting for the correct EV option to come along.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think Tesla left out the reservation sequence number this time because gives people a false impression of when they will get their car. Tesla will not be doing the deliveries according to sequence number, but would break it down by region (and perhaps configuration as with S/X).

Yes, I want know my own number also, but then I can see why they left it out this time.

 

[FlatSix911]

I'll tell you why I canceled mine. I reserved my Model S in 2009. I had never agreed to tie up money for that long for anything before (and I didn't even realize it would be 3 years instead of the 1.5 I expected).

One of the things that kept me going while waiting the three years was knowing my reservation sequence number. I knew that whenever normal production models started coming off the line, mine would be the 140th one. It's silly, really, that this was so important to me, but it was. It's one of those psychological things. I suppose if I didn't have a very early sequence number, it would have had the opposite effect...

Again, I know it's a silly reason, but it is what it is. That's why I canceled my pre-order.

A lot of TMC members already know our reservation sequence number ... it was available for a few days before Tesla removed the data.
The Bottom line is that your number is only part of the delivery priority including geographic location and trim level ordered.
Details here Tesla Model 3: there’s a way to see where you are in the queue, check it before Tesla finds out

 

[WileyTheMan]

Pretty much what FlatSix said. Reservation number doesn't really help much with figuring out your place in the overall queue.

That said, I can respect anyone's reasons for canceling...no matter how silly it might seem.

 

[aviators99]

By second wave of owners, you mean sometime in 2019, right? Because I'm pretty sure that's when they'll be done with all the reservations for Model 3.

No, I am thinking 2020. I don't expect the first real deliveries of Model 3s to be until 2019. But I hope they prove me wrong.

 

[JeffK]

The the Model 3 going to be produced so much faster than the Model S what difference does it make where exactly you are in line.
At full production rate they may produce more Model 3s in a two month timespan than an entire year's worth of the Model S.

It seems that you don't have faith that Tesla has learned anything from previous launches.

 

[Pdub2015]

As much as I like the company, I still can't figure out why people were so gung ho about making reservations for a vehicle so far from production. That tax rebate doesn't seem to be a strong enough incentive to me, or I should say, it wasn't strong enough FOR me... I intend to buy a Model 3, but I'm not interested in being an early adopter.

 

[JeffK]

As much as I like the company, I still can't figure out why people were so gung ho about making reservations for a vehicle so far from production. That tax rebate doesn't seem to be a strong enough incentive to me, or I should say, it wasn't strong enough FOR me... I intend to buy a Model 3, but I'm not interested in being an early adopter.

For a select few of us, it's possibly about bragging rights

 

[N5329K]

I'm a little more concerned that the initial 400K reservations have drained the market for the 3 to its sandy bottom, and so there might not be much of a follow-on wave of orders to support the steep ramp Tesla will have to build. Do hope I am wrong about this, though.
Robin

 

[S'toon]

No, I am thinking 2020. I don't expect the first real deliveries of Model 3s to be until 2019. But I hope they prove me wrong.

If that happens Tesla will be destroyed as a company.

 

[davewill]

I'm a little more concerned that the initial 400K reservations have drained the market for the 3 to its sandy bottom, and so there might not be much of a follow-on wave of orders to support the steep ramp Tesla will have to build. Do hope I am wrong about this, though.
Robin

I think it will be all right. There are probably a bunch of people like me who simply refuse to put down that much money for that much time. When the lead time is under a year, then I'll consider going for it. Also, there will be plenty of folks that will need to see their friends and neighbors get one before it even gets on their radar.

 

[aviators99]

The the Model 3 going to be produced so much faster than the Model S what difference does it make where exactly you are in line.
At full production rate they may produce more Model 3s in a two month timespan than an entire year's worth of the Model S.

This was actually a factor in my decision too, but is a conflicting thought with below.

It seems that you don't have faith that Tesla has learned anything from previous launches.

There is some truth to that. But achieving the scale of battery production they are planning seems close to impossible to me. This leads me to believe there will be serious delays in start-up (for a much different reason than previous launches), and that the rate of production might not be realistic.

 

[S'toon]

As much as I like the company, I still can't figure out why people were so gung ho about making reservations for a vehicle so far from production. That tax rebate doesn't seem to be a strong enough incentive to me, or I should say, it wasn't strong enough FOR me... I intend to buy a Model 3, but I'm not interested in being an early adopter.

No tax rebates here. Our Premier is completely in the tank for the fossil fuel industry. He's already gutted the province's environmental rebate programs that the previous government enacted, goes around the country spewing lies in speeches for the fossil fuel industry. He'd rather die than give out a rebate. My country has no national rebates, heck, we're probably the worst in the industrialized world when it comes to incentivizing EV use.

 

[aviators99]

If that happens Tesla will be destroyed as a company.

I disagree. They were just as late on the Model S, and they survived.

 

[strykeroz]

No tax rebates here...snip...heck, we're probably the worst in the industrialized world when it comes to incentivizing EV use.

Unfortunately at time of typing Australia is also in the running for that sad prize. If Model 3 somehow ran on coal or CSG I can imagine every school kid here would have a government funded reservation, backed by both sides of politics, with a catchy policy name that has the word "innovation" in it.

 

[JeffK]

But achieving the scale of battery production they are planning seems close to impossible to me.

Keep in mind the Gigafactory belongs to Tesla but the cell production machinery is still all Panasonic. Also, due to the volume increase of the cell itself (20700 instead of 18650). They'd need to make fewer cells per battery pack.