I would love to see a 150mile range compact Tesla at a ~$22k USD price after the tax credits expire here. It could have minimal options and margin. Just get more people into an EV to really get the wave moving. Would make a great car for college grads that are more apt to buy EV and aren't in a financial situation to do it.
A similar sentiment has been expressed by militant EV extremists for some time. That is, they argue that
'no one' needs a long range, high performance, large, expensive electric vehicle at all and that Tesla Motors is doing it all
'the wrong way'. I've been telling people for nearly three years that point of view misses the point entirely. Tesla exists to prove that the multitude of compromises that traditional automobile manufacturers has placed on electric vehicles in particular and fuel efficient vehicles in general are not necessary.
That attitude also turns a blind eye to the reality that more people in the U.S. and likely worldwide purchase used cars than new cars anyway. During 2015, there were 17,000,000+ new cars sold in the U.S. The same year, there were over 38,000,000 used cars sold. The new cars averaged over $31,000 each, while the used cars averaged about $18,000 each. Most major automobile manufacturers have already abandoned the sub-$15,000 price point, just as they abandoned the sub-$10,000 price point. I would not be surprised if they abandon the sub-$18,000 price point as well, within the next five-to-ten years, if not sooner.
I think if that were to happen in anyway, it would be a licensing deal or partnership of some kind, where that vehicle wouldn't be called a Tesla. Elon seems to be of the mind that the brand needs to have a certain level of quality attached to it, and making the budget cars can be left to someone else.
I think it has been already been admitted to that effectively, Tesla intended to be a third party supplier to traditional automobile manufacturers. Tiny badges that read something like 'Powered by TESLA' or 'TESLA Inside' would have been seen alongside others that said something like 'LOTUS Tuned Suspension' or 'EDDIE BAUER Edition' or whatever. That would have been a good business model, and probably would have been recommended by plenty who are rather conservative or risk averse.
But the problem is that after projects for Daimler and Toyota were completed, neither of those companies wanted to use Tesla Motors to go beyond the compliance car stage to mass production. I think that from Elon Musk's perspective, the smart EV, Toyota RAV4 EV, and Mercedes-Benz B250e were all meant to be
'proof of concept' vehicles that showed that electric drive could be applied to something other than a sports car. To some extent, so was the Model S, in that it existed to prove how much better a car would be if designed from the ground up as fully electric from the outset, instead of being a conversion of an ICE design.
He's out to prove that EVs don't have to look like the Bolt to be useful.
Correctomundo! Beautiful. Powerful. Desirable. Safe. Affordable. Compelling. ... Electric.
Don't lower the quality. Just make a compact version of the 3, put in a 30 or 40KwH battery which can still do 0-60 in ~6 seconds and sell it for ~$12k less. At battery and volume costs after the GF opens they could achieve that pricing. Keep in the autopilot option which is straight margin.
Cars have grown considerably in the past couple of decades. Vehicles that may have been traditionally thought of as
'Compact' are now Midsize instead. At 110 cubic feet of combined volume for Passengers and Cargo, a vehicle moves up from Compact to Midsize. Honda Civic (98+15), Hyundai Elantra (96+14), Kia Forte (96+15), Nissan Sentra (96+15), and Toyota Corolla (98+13) are all Midsize now.
But you know what? Many of the intended competitors ot Tesla Model ☰ are actually Compact cars: Acura TLX (93+14), AUDI A4 (92+13), BMW 3-Series (96+13), Cadillac ATS (91+10), Jaguar XE (91+10), Lexus IS (90+11), and Mercedes-Benz C-Class (90+13). I believe the Model ☰ will join the Alfa Romeo Giulia (100+12) and Infiniti Q50 (102+13) as Midsize. Likely because of the Frunk cargo capacity, but possibly due to passenger space as well, given the very cab-forward design.
Isn't EM's goal actually to get everyone in an EV, not just the luxury market?
Main point is that there is no need to specifically build a
'compact' Tesla, because the Model ☰ will already compete in that arena, and the
'cheap' cars from major manufacturers will eventually go up in price anyway. Sure, it would be AWESOME if Tesla were to eventually be able to offer a 100 kWh version of the Model ☰ for $35,000... and still release a 60 kWh version for only $27,500 to $31,500. But $22,000? Oh, [HECK]
NO! Tesla isn't going to be able to offer an
'EV for everyone', only everyone that is willing to buy a new car. In about five-to-eight years from now, there should be enough Tesla vehicles on the road to start contributing to the second-hand and third hand used market. But it is highly unlikely that the Model ☰ will depreciate at the rate the BMW 3-Series does. Per
Edmunds, a 2017 BMW 3-Series will lose $20,653 in value over five years. That's a car with a base price starting ~$10,000 more than a Toyota Camry
(which only depreciates by $12,472 in five years).
The three best selling passenger cars worldwide are typically the Toyota Corolla, Volkswagen Golf, and Ford Focus. The Corolla is #1 each year, and is the largest of the three. There is absolutely no need to build a smaller vehicle, such as the Sub-Compact AUDI A3 (86+12), which sells to practically no one anywhere in the world. And even if Tesla did need to go smaller for some other reason, that doesn't change the fact those cars are all relatively fuel efficient. It is more important to replace gas guzzlers and gross polluters than it is to remove small cars from the world's roads.
That's probably the case, I'm just wishing they wouldn't. If they are going to have the capacity to do 500,000 vehicles a year, they will saturate the market that can afford them very shortly. Why have the capacity to build that many if you price out most of the population? The 3 brings in a nice percentage of buyers, but nowhere near the $25k price point.
The
'market' that the Model ☰ will compete against in the U.S. alone was around 420,000 vehicles sold in 2015 and quite a few more worldwide. Their sales are already dipping in anticipation of Model ☰ arriving next year. I expect their sales to erode further once it is available. Tesla will need to have a much larger worldwide Capacity to take on the most popular vehicles worldwide in a direct fashion. Toyota, General Motors, Volkswagen, and Ford can all manufacturer on the order of 10,000,000 vehicles per year worldwide. It may be 2020 to 2022 before Tesla can manage even 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 units per year. So they must be very careful with the market segments they choose to take on. Anyone who can actually afford a $25,000 new ICE car will certainly be able to afford a $35,000 Model ☰. Those who cannot afford one can certainly purchase a used EV from another manufacturer, and at less than the $18,000 average for preowned cars of all types.
This has digressed from the main topic but it's in relation to why someone (and probably others) have cancelled.
I'm certain that some people will cancel once they realize the Tesla Model ☰ is considerably larger than the Chevrolet BOLT or Renault ZOE.
