Why did you get FSD?

[daniel]

Once FSD is ready I won't need to own a car anymore. I'll simply hail a FSD Tesla Uber for whatever errand I need.

You can do that now, the only difference being the car has a driver. Why will the absence of a driver make the difference between owning or not owning your own car? Do you assume that FSD Uber Teslas will be so plentiful that it eliminates the sometimes long waits? That, IMO, in an unwarranted assumption. My FSD Tesla will not be on the network because I don't want strangers in my car when I'm not. Do you assume the rides will be cheaper without a driver? I highly doubt that. Ride sharing is a great model, but eliminating the driver is not going to change the overall availability or economics.

... Money tends to be a distraction from the fun we could be having in life.

The fun things I do cost money. Money cannot buy happiness, but money can pay for a lot of really fun activities. And the lack of money can certainly "buy" unhappiness. As when your kids go to bed hungry because you don't have enough money to buy food. There's probably a point of diminishing returns in the unhappiness:money:happiness equation. Having as much money as Bill Gates probably wouldn't make me any happier than I am now, but if I couldn't afford my hiking and kayaking trips I would be less happy than I am, and if I could not afford a place to live I'd be very unhappy.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

FSD will (theoretically) ultimately offer ride hailing. If you look at the FSD option in the design studio, the language includes:

"Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year."

I read that in a different way, which is if FSD is Level 5, FSD alone does not enable the Tesla Network, and you can't use your car to autonomously operate, earning fares, without the Tesla Network.

Putting it another way, with the current FSD description, Tesla's guaranteeing Level 3. If they can do Level 4 or 5, I have no doubt they will. If they do hit Level 5, you can't use your autonomous car for car sharing and ride hailing, except for friends and family, without the Tesla Network.

 

[daniel]

Obviously, using the car for ride sharing would require it to be Level 5. (No human in the car.) I don't believe Level 5 will be available before ten years from now. Tesla really should have pointed out that using the car for ride sharing is a far-future concept. Except that Elon Musk is a dreamer with a tendency to express his dreams as though they were on the cusp of reality. It's wonderful that Musk is a dreamer. Nobody but a dreamer could have accomplished what he has. But when it comes to consumer products, some of his pronouncements need an asterisk: "Elon's dream: realization date unknown."

My own asterisk: I hope I'm wrong and we see level 5 much sooner.

 

[landis]

I'm both a logical person, and an emotional person. With FSD the gap between the two was just too far. I say this as someone who spent $10K on an E-Bike. So it really shouldn't have been that hard to get $3K from me

The 5.5% gap wasn't too far for me. And my kids are grown and long out of the house.

BTW, I don't understand the purpose of this thread. Is it motivated by FOMO or lame attempts at ridicule. ;-)

 

[d21mike]

Obviously, using the car for ride sharing would require it to be Level 5. (No human in the car.) I don't believe Level 5 will be available before ten years from now.

Are you saying NO ONE will have Level 5 in 10 years or only Tesla? Do you think Waymo will have it within 10 years? My understanding is they will start testing soon. My point is, if you feel Waymo will have it very soon but Tesla will not have it within 10 years, please explain why?

Waymo

 

[daniel]

Are you saying NO ONE will have Level 5 in 10 years or only Tesla? Do you think Waymo will have it within 10 years? My understanding is they will start testing soon. My point is, if you feel Waymo will have it very soon but Tesla will not have it within 10 years, please explain why?

Waymo

I do feel that Waymo is ahead of Tesla. They have far more hours of testing under their belt. (Monitoring cars with AP is not the same as active testing.) And based on reports of how slowly AP2 and EAP have caught up with AP1, I don't have a lot of confidence in Tesla's FSD development team. Google, on the other hand, has far more experience and depth in their programming team and their history with development of expert systems.

But my ten-year statement is for any Level 5 FSD system to be licensed for sale to the public in the U.S. This is based on the 80/20 rule: You get 80% of the way with 20% of the effort, and the last 20% takes 80% of the effort. Except that Level 5 must be able to drive on any road that a human could drive on, under any conditions where it's permitted to drive. (I.e., It would not have to drive in a blizzard when the roads are or should be closed.) It must be able to drive on roads with no markings, and recognize all posted traffic signs, etc. And then it muss pass regulatory muster, which also means that the relevant regulations have to be written and implemented.

I think that Level 4 (which I will be very happy with) will come a lot sooner, but a car that has no driver controls other than destination input is, in my opinion, a decade away. If I had Elon's ear, I'd beg him to close his FSD research branch and contract with Waymo to provide the software.

I really hope that Tesla is the first, or is within a few months of the first, because I want that car, and I will be sorely tempted to buy the first one that becomes available even if it is not a Tesla. But I could imagine a Level 4 car that I'd be happy enough with, if it could drive on all the roads I need to use. There are roads that will be difficult for FSD but that I don't need to drive on, so I won't care if my car can't drive on those. If I can go to sleep for most of my driving, then maybe I won't need full Level 5.

 

[daniel]

BTW, I don't understand the purpose of this thread. Is it motivated by FOMO or lame attempts at ridicule. ;-)

I read the OP as an honest interest in a discussion of the reasons for and against. For me, I'm not afraid of missing out because I will buy an FSD car when it becomes available. I just don't think the Model 3, with its present hardware, will be the best platform for FSD.

 

[Lem89]

Well it's in the Master Plan:

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Besides saving a thousand bucks, it doesn't really matter whether one buys FSD pre- or post-delivery. What matters is FSD is happening, and much sooner than people think (2-4 years). Let's stop and appreciate how cool that is.

 

[jsrawa]

I started a thread about this some time ago and from that thread and this one you can see just how much interest there is in FSD, I think it will really change the world we live in.

I plan to buy it when my invite arrives because we all know that while Elon can’t project timelines he does eventually achieve his goals and I don’t see why this will be any different. That being said, maybe don’t buy if your going to sell the car within three years but I will be keeping mine longer. Also, if I put up the 3k now I do believe Tesla will upgrade the hardware for free if needed and if it never comes to fruition maybe I’ll get some of my money back in a class action.

 

[AustinPowers]

As someone who doesn't see the added value in EAP, much less in FSD, I will happily spend that money on other options that I really see value in - for me personally that is. No denying many people will find EAP and even FSD useful, it's just I am not one of them.

 

[djplong]

I looked at it this way:

- It'll be AT LEAST $1000 more expensive later.
- Buying it now means I'm financing it.
- With the new chips that Tesla is developing, if it turns out what's in my Model 3 isn't enough computing power, I *should* get a free upgrade.

I look forward more to "hands off" driving but I love the idea of eventually being able to drive to the airport and tell my tesla to 'go home' - and pick me up at said airport when I come back - saving myself over $150/week in airport parking fees.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Why AM I getting FSD?

1. I already called my insurance company - who said that they will only replace what my original invoice says if my car is totaled.
2. I like how Tesla rolls a product out. They seem to roll it out in parts or phases. I want anything related to FSD when it comes out.
3. I like how Tesla supports those who make initial commitments to their products.
4. I can afford it.

 

[daniel]

Well it's in the Master Plan:

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Besides saving a thousand bucks, it doesn't really matter whether one buys FSD pre- or post-delivery. What matters is FSD is happening, and much sooner than people think (2-4 years). Let's stop and appreciate how cool that is.

The above suggests that you believe Level 5 will be available for the public to buy in that time frame (2-4 years). We are presently at Level 2 with EAP. My understanding is that Cadillac has Level 3 but with such a narrow geofence that it hardly counts. I find it extremely optimistic to expect Level 5 that soon, especially given Tesla's established history of delays.

I started a thread about this some time ago and from that thread and this one you can see just how much interest there is in FSD, I think it will really change the world we live in.

I plan to buy it when my invite arrives because we all know that while Elon can’t project timelines he does eventually achieve his goals and I don’t see why this will be any different. That being said, maybe don’t buy if your going to sell the car within three years but I will be keeping mine longer. Also, if I put up the 3k now I do believe Tesla will upgrade the hardware for free if needed and if it never comes to fruition maybe I’ll get some of my money back in a class action.

I agree that this will change the world, and I really want to have it before I'm too old to drive. But people who expect to be able to send the car out without a driver in as little as 4 years have caught Elon's chrono-optimism disease.

As for a class action lawsuit, it would make a lot of lawyers very rich, and you'd probably get about $15.

Level 5 is coming. And it will make transportation immensely safer, as well as allowing old folks to have a car for as long as they're physically able to get in and out of it. But the technical and regulatory hurdles are not trivial. We may get Level 3 (eyes off the road) within 2 or 3 years. Level 4 (driver can go to sleep but must be available) is the most I think we can hope for by 2025. And Level 5 (driving controls optional) will be at least five years after Level 4. Getting from "Car can drive itself 99% of the time" to "Car can drive itself 100% of the time" will be a very hard task to accomplish.

As an aside, I wonder at what point Tesla will stop pushing features to EAP cars and require you to have paid for FSD. In my opinion, EAP should at least get Level 3 (eyes off the road) when it becomes available, and they'd be justified in saying that Level 4 requires FSD.

 

[jsrawa]

Why AM I getting FSD?

1. I already called my insurance company - who said that they will only replace what my original invoice says if my car is totaled.
2. I like how Tesla rolls a product out. They seem to roll it out in parts or phases. I want anything related to FSD when it comes out.
3. I like how Tesla supports those who make initial commitments to their products.
4. I can afford it.

#1 is a great point, I had not even considered that. Unfortunately buying FSD will mean slightly higher ownership tax the first five years of ownership since it is based on MSRP but I have done the math and I still come out slightly ahead of the 4k price plus I have locked in the price which is worth it for me personally.

 

[Garlan Garner]

#1 is a great point, I had not even considered that. Unfortunately buying FSD will mean slightly higher ownership tax the first five years of ownership since it is based on MSRP but I have done the math and I still come out slightly ahead of the 4k price plus I have locked in the price which is worth it for me personally.

I agree. it is more in initial taxes.

Another thing for me is that The model 3 is going to last me a long time. I might as well buy FSD wile I can afford it. Who knows what's going to happen in the future?

I'm hoping that FSD is going to stay attached to the car and increase the value if I want to sell it.

Another thing my Insurance company told me is that ( right now ) Software will NOT increase my insurance premiums at all - because it can't get damaged and it cant cause damage from a physical standpoint.

 

[Lem89]

The above suggests that you believe Level 5 will be available for the public to buy in that time frame (2-4 years). We are presently at Level 2 with EAP. My understanding is that Cadillac has Level 3 but with such a narrow geofence that it hardly counts. I find it extremely optimistic to expect Level 5 that soon, especially given Tesla's established history of delays.

To clarify, when I use FSD I'm referring to Tesla's $3,000 option, which I think will start at Level 4 in 2-4 years, while EAP will reach level 3 within that period. Some people are under the impression Tesla will pocket their $3000 for 10+ years without rolling out features. I was reminding people that autonomy is a vital part of Tesla's mission.

 

[daniel]

To clarify, when I use FSD I'm referring to Tesla's $3,000 option, which I think will start at Level 4 in 2-4 years, while EAP will reach level 3 within that period. Some people are under the impression Tesla will pocket their $3000 for 10+ years without rolling out features. I was reminding people that autonomy is a vital part of Tesla's mission.

I agree that autonomy is part of Tesla's mission. And I do not for a moment believe that it is or ever was Elon's intention to pocket people's $3K for ten years. I just don't believe that a car capable of Level 5 operation (needed for driverless taxi service -- is it really "ride sharing" if you're not sharing the ride with anybody? ) will be developed and approved for sale to the public in less than ten years. This is Musk's chrono-optimism in play. He thinks things can be accomplished sooner than they really can. It's part of what has made him so successful. But it makes me wary of goals I think are unrealistic within the implied time frame.

Even Level 4 (you can go to sleep, depending on the road) which I will consider as near full autonomy as I need, is IMO at least 8 years away, given that we're only at Level 2 now, and even that is severely limited by its inability to read stop signs and traffic lights and its need for very clear lane markings.

Clearly, Tesla intends to roll out features as they become available. Just since I bought my Model 3 EAP has improved and new features have come out. It's one of Tesla's great innovations, OTA updates.

 

[nvx1977]

My interpretation of the SAE levels between 4 and 5 is that in a level 5 car, there is no steering wheel or pedals. But both levels do not require driver assistance. Level 5 means there's no way for a driver to intervene because it's either unnecessary or dangerous to do so.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I agree that autonomy is part of Tesla's mission. And I do not for a moment believe that it is or ever was Elon's intention to pocket people's $3K for ten years. I just don't believe that a car capable of Level 5 operation (needed for driverless taxi service -- is it really "ride sharing" if you're not sharing the ride with anybody? ) will be developed and approved for sale to the public in less than ten years. This is Musk's chrono-optimism in play. He thinks things can be accomplished sooner than they really can. It's part of what has made him so successful. But it makes me wary of goals I think are unrealistic within the implied time frame.

Even Level 4 (you can go to sleep, depending on the road) which I will consider as near full autonomy as I need, is IMO at least 8 years away, given that we're only at Level 2 now, and even that is severely limited by its inability to read stop signs and traffic lights and its need for very clear lane markings.

Clearly, Tesla intends to roll out features as they become available. Just since I bought my Model 3 EAP has improved and new features have come out. It's one of Tesla's great innovations, OTA updates.

I would like to go to sleep in Level 4 FSD one day. So long as my insurance insures it.

 

[rhaekar]

Man you guys are really optimistic. I'm just wishing it would detect stop signs, stop lights, and cars already stopped at lights at this point.