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I will be getting the SR with PUP, whenever that combo is available
Yes and no. Nobody knows what a new battery pack might cost, however the price of batteries keeps coming down. Regardless of whether you purchase SR or LR, the battery will probably need to be replaced at sometime in the future, the variables are unknown at this time. I will cross that bridge when I come to it.
I am living my dream right now. A lifetime of hard work has paid off - one and only stable marriage (she made me a better person), life of relative ease (actually trying to liquidate some of the unnecessary stuff), relatively good health (well I could lose more than a few pounds), etc. Obtaining a model 3 immediately with options I don't need, will not make my life more complete than it already is. I am patient and will wait for the 3 that makes the most sense for me, regardless of tax credit.
There have been several posts on this thread why the 3SR would not work for them and I agree, it doesn't make sense for them. As I stated in the OP, this is my personal decision based on climate, family status (empty nest), driving habits etc. I am not arguing that an SR is better than an LR. Each version has its pros and cons. I am saying for my needs, I won't be spending $9000 (plus $750 sales tax) on an option I will rarely need to get a return of $7500. I am not trying to convert anyone to my thinking, I'm just passing the time waiting for the configuration I want, sharing my reasoning for my decision. I expect my scenario is somewhat unique and does not apply to most people on this forum. But regardless we have option choices and the 3 is a great car despite its initial growing pains. It's a win/win for all of us.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
....with no young children. In that way I’m not missing those days.You must be under 55 years old.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
I know resale value doesn’t matter to the OP, but I want to share some numbers with others.
If you sell the car after it loses 1/3 of its value (probably ~3 years):
LR/PUP/$49k
$16,333 depreciation
-7500 tax credit
Costs you $8833 of depreciation
SR/PUP/$40k
$13,333 depreciation
-3750 tax credit
Costs you $9583 of depreciation
So, the SR with PUP will actually cost you slightly more. So slight that the extra sales tax on the LR wipes out the difference. But, if you want the PUP, waiting for the SR doesn’t make financial sense.
If you sell the car after it loses 1/3 of its value (probably ~3 years):
LR/PUP/$49k
$16,333 depreciation
-7500 tax credit
Costs you $8833 of depreciation
SR/PUP/$40k
$13,333 depreciation
-3750 tax credit
Costs you $9583 of depreciation
So, the SR with PUP will actually cost you slightly more. So slight that the extra sales tax on the LR wipes out the difference. But, if you want the PUP, waiting for the SR doesn’t make financial sense.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Another example, if you sell the car after it loses 1/2 its value (probably ~5 years):
LR/PUP/$49k
$24,500 depreciation
-7500 tax credit
Costs you $17,000 depreciation
SR/PUP/$40k
$20,000 depreciation
-3750 tax credit
Costs you $16,250 depreciation
In this case, the SR actually is cheaper, but only by $750 over 5 years. $150 per year, $12.50 a month. Seems worth it to me, but everyone is different.
Final thought: due to the tax credit, selling after 3 years makes more financial sense than selling after 5 years.
LR/PUP/$49k
$24,500 depreciation
-7500 tax credit
Costs you $17,000 depreciation
SR/PUP/$40k
$20,000 depreciation
-3750 tax credit
Costs you $16,250 depreciation
In this case, the SR actually is cheaper, but only by $750 over 5 years. $150 per year, $12.50 a month. Seems worth it to me, but everyone is different.
Final thought: due to the tax credit, selling after 3 years makes more financial sense than selling after 5 years.
There are no natural disasters in CaliforniaAlso keep in mind natural disasters. In the event of a major catastrophe and you need to get away quickly, a longer range + faster charging times will help. Very rare situation but still something to keep in mind.
(P.S. I could use that reservation if you won't be using it yet.
RayK
Active Member
Slightly OT: @xav- Not quite sure of your definition of 'natural' but I can think of several...
- Earthquakes: You were not around for the Northridge quake of 1994?
- Tsunami: hasn't happened in some time ('64 I think was last one)
- Wildfires: ones caused by lightning strikes and not arson or electrical lines falling down
- Earthquakes: You were not around for the Northridge quake of 1994?
- Tsunami: hasn't happened in some time ('64 I think was last one)
- Wildfires: ones caused by lightning strikes and not arson or electrical lines falling down
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Those tax credits mess up resale value, hard. Look at all the other EV resale market.
Dr. J
Active Member
There is suspicious math in posts #1 and #24 in this thread. So this is for clarity, for better decision-making:
LR: $49,000 retail + sales tax (don't know what yours is, but let's assume 8% and YMMV)
All else equal (paint, wheels, etc.)--
SR: $40,000 retail + sales tax
Difference: $9,720 (easy math is $9,000 x 1.08 [or 1 + your sales tax rate], assuming all else is equal on options and trade-in)
Assuming you get the full credit with LR and the half credit with SR, that difference is -$3,750.
Thus, the true cost of the LR upgrade, after sales tax and tax credit, is $5,970. That's the only number that matters, except for any calculation of depreciation on resale (which is pretty speculative) and differential financing costs (which are pretty small but could be important depending on personal situation).
Waiting on non-PUP is likely to be a similar calculation for me, but as of now I can't tell what my non-PUP tax credit situation looks like.
LR: $49,000 retail + sales tax (don't know what yours is, but let's assume 8% and YMMV)
All else equal (paint, wheels, etc.)--
SR: $40,000 retail + sales tax
Difference: $9,720 (easy math is $9,000 x 1.08 [or 1 + your sales tax rate], assuming all else is equal on options and trade-in)
Assuming you get the full credit with LR and the half credit with SR, that difference is -$3,750.
Thus, the true cost of the LR upgrade, after sales tax and tax credit, is $5,970. That's the only number that matters, except for any calculation of depreciation on resale (which is pretty speculative) and differential financing costs (which are pretty small but could be important depending on personal situation).
Waiting on non-PUP is likely to be a similar calculation for me, but as of now I can't tell what my non-PUP tax credit situation looks like.
I agree with your math and makes my decision even more obvious. For my personal, unique, specific needs and requirements, I am not going to spend $9000 plus tax to save $3780 (9750 - 5970). I expect my scenario will apply to few others on this forum.
I was bummed when my Early 2018 SR was changed to Late 2018. Your logic makes sense if you are not going to use LR that much. I am in the Central Valley so I could have squeaked by with SR but in the long run LR makes sense due to range anxiety and holding the value of the M3. Still $9K is 9K. I was invited on Feb 22 but I am holding my place to see if AWD or SR estimates change. One thing I have learned with Tesla is you never know what to expect. The estimates with SR could change to be earlier if the ramp increases. I am curious to see what the next 6 months will bring.
Of course I might pull the trigger on LR and PUP if it seems the Full Tax Credit is about to expire.
Good Luck!
Of course I might pull the trigger on LR and PUP if it seems the Full Tax Credit is about to expire.
Good Luck!
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Could be. But so far, Tesla’s history has been the opposite:
Why does a Tesla have such high resale value?
Wife and I grew up together in Reedley. Used to cruise Fulton STREET in my 55 Ford Victoria 2 door (White over Desert Rose) on Friday nights when we were much younger!
I think that's a wise thing to do if you don't need a new car right now. You can activate your invitation at any time in the future and jump right to the top of the list. Suerte.
I'm in the same situation, but only during the winter. I have solar panels and I'm in PG&E E-6 TOU plan. I'm in Tier 1 usage or producing power ten months out of the year, but, during a couple of winter months, I don't generate enough power so I slip into Tier 2 usage. The off-peak rates during the winter for Tier 2 is around 24 cents per kwh, so charging at the Supercharger is actually cheaper than charging at home, but it's much more of a hassle driving to the Supercharger.
Even during the summer, the off-peak rate is around 16 cents per kwh, so now that much cheaper than the Supercharger.
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you guys are all whack. The OP is spot-on with his/her analysis. Hundreds more should follow his/her lead. (so I can Configure earlier).
EV-lutioin
Active Member
I am assuming you posted your original post to get feedback and not start an argument, so I will cautiously give you some more feedback. Supercharger stops are not just "10 minutes" longer, the top 20% of the battery is very slow to charge... it may take much longer. Also, consider that with a smaller battery pack you will have to drive slower to maintain range... there is nothing more frustrating than driving a Tesla at or below the speed limit
. Lastly, range is compromised by cold weather, headwinds and elevation gain, so your 220 mile range can be as much as 50% less in certain conditions. In the end, I think almost every Tesla owner has wished they had more range at some point in their ownership.
No need to argue, I realize I may be an outlier. I'm not trying to change any minds, just sharing my philosophy.I am assuming you posted your original post to get feedback and not start an argument, so I will cautiously give you some more feedback. Supercharger stops are not just "10 minutes" longer, the top 20% of the battery is very slow to charge... it may take much longer. Also, consider that with a smaller battery pack you will have to drive slower to maintain range... there is nothing more frustrating than driving a Tesla at or below the speed limit
With regards to some of your points:
- I have run various scenarios on ABRP with both SR and LR on a long distance trip I might take once a year. I will not charge to 100% at stops but more liked 80/85% and the difference for me and my diving style is a total of 30 minutes more for the SR for the total long distance day.
- With regards to range, I am a semi-hypermiler. I drive the posted speed limit and stay in the far right lane except when speeding trucks overtake me and I briefly move to the adjacent lane to let them pass when possible. With 18" aero covers and conservative driving style I expect to get about the same all empty range as an LR with 19' wheels going 80/90 mph. (Yes he will get there sooner by maybe 30 - 45 minutes in a typical long distance drive, but I am in no hurry, I'm just going for a relaxing drive and smelling the roses.
- Cold weather, headwinds, and elevation gain effect an LR too by the same percentage but even more in gross numbers. Driving style should be modified in those conditions with either configuration.
- If the model 3 had a range of >400 miles so that I could drive a typical long range day without a stop for charging, or a 60% charge in 10 minutes, I would seriously consider that. I expect that kind of range will be available with a refreshed MS in the near future. That could be the factor that pushes me from a 3 to an S. Eventually, a few years down the road, I expect to see close to 600 mile range in a Tesla sedan.
- No doubt there will be at least one time in my ownership that I will wish I had more range, but then I will think back to what I did with that $9000 instead.
Dr. J
Active Member
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Yes, but do we know that will be the case after the tax credit is gone? I suspect that if you can't get the discount any more it will mess up resale values less...
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