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Why I think Canadians should Configure before Q3.

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by H2050, May 7, 2018.

  1. H2050

    H2050 Member

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    Most people already know this, Tesla is sending invites to Canadians because they want to sell their 200,000th on Q3.
    Conversely, once in Q3 they will send a lot less invites to Canadians. Two reasons for this.

    1. They have a backlog of US customers to catch-up that were held up by the incentives.

    2. Sending a car in US is cheaper than sending to Canada, and they need every penny of cash right now. (I could be wrong about this and they get more money because of the exchange rate...etc)

    In conclusion, I estimate Canadians will get a HUGE delay after Q3 begins. So if you are Canadian who got invite, do not pass up on the opportunity that presents only in these few months. And if you didn't get invite before Q3, will have to wait until mid 2019 probably.

    Anyone else thinks the same? Or other ideas?
     
    • Like x 3
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  2. drawfour

    drawfour Member

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    I agree. Sometime at the beginning of June, I think invites to configure for Canadians will cease, because the current 3-6 week estimate would go well into July. My bet is also that the AWD variant, whenever it becomes available, will be available only to US customers first, except for a few Canadians that were also Day 1 reservation holders. Anyone who was later than Day 1 in Canada will be able to configure only a LR because that's the only reason they were given the invite so early. Tesla will, IMO, wait quite a while before allowing them to configure AWD or send new invites to Canada.
     
  3. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    I stated the same sentiment on a different thread last week. I wouldn't be surprised if the First Priority invites get rescinded at some point for anyone who does not configure their car.
     
  4. bpjod

    bpjod Member

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    I agree completely and jumped on the configuration as soon as I got my invite. I planned on AWD, but I still have an SUV for towing that will also fulfill the AWD duties if it ever gets so bad that the TM3 can't handle the snow. Furthermore, the reports of the RWD owners that had their cars this past winter in the NE states (which got some pretty bad weather this winter/spring) is all positive if winter tires were installed.

    My bet as an August 2019 reservation holder is that if I didn't jump when I got my invite, that I'd probably watch my window of opportunity close, then have to wait until 2019 to get my second chance. I didn't want that to happen so I configured as soon as my invite came in.
     
  5. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    ???? 2016?
     
  6. Blu Angel

    Blu Angel Member

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    Being a daily reader of TMC forum, one feels the palpable anticipation of the American TM3 reservation holders.
    Tesla is only holding back until July 1st so that the maximum number of US buyers will receive the $7,500 US federal rebate.
    (for 2 successive quarters)
    This could be as high as 130,000 Model 3 produced! (5,000 per week x 26 weeks)

    Hear, Hear!! Well spoken sir!
    The remaining Canucks who have NOT configured will be SOL!!
     
  7. bpjod

    bpjod Member

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    Oops. 2017.
     
  8. drawfour

    drawfour Member

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    Can't be that high. They have to be delivered, not produced. It could only happen if they are at 5k/wk within the next couple weeks, given that it still takes time to send the cars out to be delivered. If they don't hit 5k/wk until July, which is what Elon hinted at for his estimate, then they will have to take whatever they have produced at end of November to get delivered by end of Dec.
     
  9. Blu Angel

    Blu Angel Member

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    Drawfour,
    My supposition is that The Gigafactory WILL be consistently producing at least 5,000 TM3's from July 1st

    Elon has already stated that the Gigafactory will be once again shut down (possibly May month) for 10 days
    to calibrate & update the Grohmann robots to achieve this lofty goal (6000 / week)

    Thus, I presume that the Gigafactory will, at minimum, produce 130,000 TM3's during Q3 (July 1-Sept 30) & Q4 (Oct1-Dec 31)
    That's at least 5,000 produced per week x 26 weeks = 130,000
    If bychance, 6,000 TM3 are produced from start of Q4, then it's 143,000 reached.
    Surely, Tesla can deliver 130,000 by year-end.
     
    • Like x 1
  10. drawfour

    drawfour Member

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    Produced is not delivered. If starting on Jul 1, they are producing at 5k/wk, sure, they will produce 130,000 during Q3&Q4. But they won't be able to deliver them all then, because they would still be producing the last one on Dec 31. It will probably take a minimum of 3-4 weeks to deliver one. It requires loading, shipping, arrival, prepping, etc... All I'm saying is you basically have to discount the month of Dec from your calculations because to get the full credit, the car must be delivered to the customer no later than Dec 31. So 5k/wk for 22 weeks is 110k, not 130k. Given your addition of 6k/wk starting Q4, it would be Q3 @ 5k = 65k, plus Q4 (minus 4 weeks) @ 6k = 54k, for a total of 119k. Still shy of 130k.
     
  11. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    Are you assuming no production in June that will be delivered in July?
     
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  12. drawfour

    drawfour Member

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    No, but he's claiming 5k/wk STARTS on July 1. It would need to have the month of June at 5k/wk in order for those to be delivered in July. And then for his 6k/wk would not be able to start in Q4, but instead one month before Q4, in order for that to be fully realized in Q4 deliveries. I am making no assumptions as to what those numbers would be. It is true that my calculations didn't show that, but clearly, unless it's 5k/wk the month of June, it will be less than his prediction, which he stated was the floor, not the ceiling, for the projection.
     
  13. Blu Angel

    Blu Angel Member

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    drawfour,

    Let's just pretend, for a moment, that we're playing the game of horseshoes!

    Whether the final delivery by Dec 31st is ONLY 119,000 delivered TM3's, we all WiN!!
    The EV world will be a much better place.

    Think of the goodwill that at least 119,000 additional Tesla owners will do for the EV world.
    That's al lot of people talking & praising this petrol free world!

    Betcha a cup of coffee we'll still get er done! (130,000 TM3's delivered)
     
    • Like x 3
  14. drawfour

    drawfour Member

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    Oh, I agree. Shoot for the stars and land on the moon! That seems to be Elon's goal. Still pretty impressive either way, and I'm rooting for Elon & Tesla. I want to see lots more electric vehicles out there, and ones that look good and perform well, too. Unfortunately, all I see so far are crap (IMO) compared to Teslas, so a Tesla is what I'm getting (you know, once my invite arrives and all that). I can't wait to get rid of my gas-guzzler.
     
  15. DavidP

    DavidP Member

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    Sure I will be more than happy to order before Q3...they just have to release the small battery ;)
     
  16. Dante

    Dante Member

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    I completely agree with this sentiment. However, I was having a discussion with a friend who is also a reservation holder (albeit months after me), and he brought up a good point: Tesla’s worldwide reservations stand around 500k. If you assume half of their demand is in the US, that’s 250k waiting. Of those 250k, I think there are different “groups”. Those that want first production, those that want LRD/white interior/P (basically more expensive versions of the car), and those waiting for the base model. They’ve delivered maybe 25k so far. If you break these groups into thirds (simplicity) that’s 83k in each group. The third group won’t be in play this year, so you’ve got about 166k that want cars and can order them in the US. Subtracting what’s already been delivered, you get 130k reservations that could be filled in 2018, which is pretty close to what will be produced (we hope!)

    Lots of assumptions in the argument, but if you adjust some, it’s easy to say there will still be room to max out US deliveries while delivering cars to Canada as well. I still think he’s being optimistic, but I’m waiting for LRD and hoping I’ll still get it this year.
     
  17. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

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    I somewhat agree, but as each group gets fulfilled wouldn't it be in Tesla's best interest to have the next group ready to configure? Second question is will Tesla be ready for subsequent groups and configurations?
     
  18. Mountain

    Mountain New Member

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    Hi all! I’m new to the forum and just came across this thread as the exact topic I was curious about.

    I was a day 1 line waiter (first 100 people) in western Canada, and received my invite to configure back in March. I have delayed in hopes of getting AWD and the white interior, but I have had some nervousness about this and this thread has me reconsidering.

    MyTesla says I should expect AWD mid 2018. Does anyone know or have thoughts as to whether that will be just for the LR battery or SR as well (and whether I will actually be included in that Q3 possibility being in Canada)? I guess no news of when the white interior will arrive yet either. My wife and I have a good AWD SUV as our primary vehicle, and a 10yr old FWD car which we want to get rid of due to age and because it sucks in the snow (M3 will replace this). Any thoughts or suggestions on my best plan of attack regarding holding out for AWD/white vs configuring now? Ideally I’d like the car before this Christmas...

    It’s times like this I wish I had two reservations - one to configure now and then sell once all the features I want are available to configure on car 2.
     
  19. SomeJoe7777

    SomeJoe7777 Marginally-Known Member

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    A valid concern, but is it possible that there are (or will be) many in inventory? Say you cannot deliver the last 20K of them that are produced in December in Q4. But if you had 20K of them in inventory at the end of Q2, then you'd make up for it by delivering them in Q3.
     
  20. Jim R

    Jim R Member

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    Might be just a terminology problem, but I'm pretty sure the Gigafactory won't be producing ANY TM3's. They produce batteries. You are probably referring to the Tesla car factory. Correct me if I'm wrong.
     

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