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Why I Think Tesla is Unlikely to Fail

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Your description of the current production lines is not entirely accurate. Tesla's line #1 that has been making the S (which itself is not the original production line) is scheduled to be shut down once line #2 that is currently making the S and the X is running at full speed this year. The area where line #1 was will be used for the line to build the Model 3.
I was told that during a recent factory tour.

I stand corrected.
 
I don't think they are supply constrained now. They have had two rounds of incentive programs at the end of 2015 to boost Model S sales. That indicates the Model S market may be getting close to topped out. The market for $100K cars is very limited and Tesla has come close to saturating it. They would get a few more sales if they could defeat the bans in places like Michigan, but it would probably cost more to fight that battle than they would make if they won at this point. When they have a mass market car, that's a different situation.

The limitation they will be hitting soon is their production capacity. They added a second production line for the Model X, though both lines can make either car. Each line has a theoretical max capacity of about 50,000 cars a year and they pretty much hit that in 2015. Once Model X production hits its stride, they will be building 100,000 cars with both lines maxed out. That will be their peak capacity until they either add a new production line, make some tweaks to the existing lines to increase capacity, or until the Model 3 comes on line and its new production lines.

They do have a final assembly plant in the Netherlands that is assembling parts made in California. This may increase their overall capacity over 100K a year. I'm not sure if that plant is part of the 100K capacity numbers or not.

I think its the other way around. Tesla is managing demand so they don't get long delays (and unhappy customers).
Tesla has a significant service center capacity problem (both adding new locations and increasing capacity at existing ones) that needs to be addressed. It wouldn't be like Musk to let production skyrocket and have a horde of pissed off customers with service. That's part of the supply problem.
Sustaining a 50% yoy continuous growth is a massive challenge as the sheer scale of upgrades become daunting (cash is scaleable, people aren't). Tesla don't have a mountain of Cash like Intel and Apple (yet).
Tesla needs more superchargers in some critical locations and need to complete coverage in some less travelled roads (W TX, ME, ND, AK, MS, ...).

I'll believe Tesla is demand constrained when they go full on ads and sales are flat. I think that will be above 200k MS+MX/yr. Porsche sells close to 200k units / yr too. Why Tesla can't sell as many cars as Porsche. On one hand Porsche has some cheaper cars, but they are expensive to maintain, are not electric, and there are many similar ICE alternatives, while only Tesla has a high performance BEV.
 
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