Why is production seemingly skipping October?

[nilspjac]

I see from the Model S/X Order Tracker spreadsheet that estimated deliveries just jumped from end of September, until Mid November. What is going on in the month of October? Could it be that they're retooling the factory for a new interior! Could it be? Is the next year rumor just to keep the bloodhounds confused?

With their current focus on getting profitable, the timing would be a bit odd, shutting down production for a while. Has this happened before, sudden gaps like that? The spreadsheet tracks people all over the world, so you would think October deliveries for other regions would show up, if they have dedicated the October production for Europe, for example.

Maybe, maybe not. The question is what would you do with your current order if this was true? Would you forfeit the $2500, cancel, and re-order to get the new interior? (At some point, some folks will have this predicament.) My assumption is that when the new interior does show up, it will have a HUD to complement the screen, the X being a "premium" model.

In such a scenario, I might just cancel!

 

[Daniel 74]

As you mentioned, production in the first quarter is for Europe / Asia. As these cars need to be transported (6 weeks), there are no deliveries in october.

 

[Light Fury]

While hemming and hawing over paint color and wheels, I saw the projected delivery date change from late September to November. On 9/4, it was late September and on 9/5 (which I when I placed the order/paid the deposit), it was November. ‍

 

[wdolson]

Or at least a lot fewer deliveries in October. One of the reasons Elon wanted to take the company private was to end the quarterly juggle to get cars to their destinations in the quarter they were built. It requires them to build export cars in the first weeks of a quarter and domestic the last 6 weeks. As a result most deliveries world-wide are in the last month of a quarter.

The best time to order is late in the first month or the beginning of the second month of a quarter. You have a good chance of getting into the queue for that quarter, but it isn't built by tired workers at the beginning of a quarter or frantic ones at the end. I ordered at the end of the first month and my car was built about a month later. I've had virtually none of the quality problems others had. The only issues were minor nuisances. I also got a battery with more than the advertised range and it hasn't degraded in 2 years.

 

[SuitNtie]

I placed my order on 9/1 while late september was still listed. It was confirmed on 9/4 and later that day the design studio changed to November. I am yet to receive a vin or any update. I sent a message asking for an update and 36 hours later I am still waiting.
My thoughts are also that there is some type of retooling. Maybe even the new chip?

 

[xyeahtony]

I mean the model 3 builder says 4 weeks and a lot of people are getting their cars in ~7 days.

Even though it says November, my OA told me it'd be early October. Generally speaking, the online builder will overestimate the amount of time needed.

 

[outie]

Or at least a lot fewer deliveries in October. One of the reasons Elon wanted to take the company private was to end the quarterly juggle to get cars to their destinations in the quarter they were built. It requires them to build export cars in the first weeks of a quarter and domestic the last 6 weeks. As a result most deliveries world-wide are in the last month of a quarter.

The best time to order is late in the first month or the beginning of the second month of a quarter. You have a good chance of getting into the queue for that quarter, but it isn't built by tired workers at the beginning of a quarter or frantic ones at the end. I ordered at the end of the first month and my car was built about a month later. I've had virtually none of the quality problems others had. The only issues were minor nuisances. I also got a battery with more than the advertised range and it hasn't degraded in 2 years.

The main issue is geographic differences. I ordered my replacement X early Feb and the car was built in March and delivered late March because I am in CA.

If you want cars that weren't built by tired workers, you need to find a car that was delivered to a state other than California.

 

[wdolson]

Oregon and Washington get cars about as fast as Southern California. My car was built just before Memorial Day weekend and showed up in Portland the following Tuesday. I had to wait another 6 days because they were too busy to get it prepped in time. They were doing the post delivery extra Model X inspections at the time.

They tend to deliver in the western states late in a quarter because travel distances are the shortest.

 

[jfinelli89]

Hi, I am wondering why they are skipping deliveries in October as well?
Ordered: Sept.2
Confirmed: Sept 5
VIN Asssigned: Sept 12

 

[outie]

Hi, I am wondering why they are skipping deliveries in October as well?
Ordered: Sept.2
Confirmed: Sept 5
VIN Asssigned: Sept 12

It’s already been explained above. Tesla builds cars for overseas market first at start of quarter (October) and make its way back to the US and west coast last. This is to make sure all cars are delivered by end of quarter.

 

[jboy210]

The main issue is geographic differences. I ordered my replacement X early Feb and the car was built in March and delivered late March because I am in CA.

If you want cars that weren't built by tired workers, you need to find a car that was delivered to a state other than California.

I ordered in late week in Feb and got my car last day in May. Pickup at Fremont delivery center 15 miles from my house. Maybe your replacement bumped you up

 

[outie]

I ordered in late week in Feb and got my car last day in May. Pickup at Fremont delivery center 15 miles from my house. Maybe your replacement bumped you up

No, people ordering around the same time got their cars end of March. This is all consistent with how Tesla produces and deliver vehicles. Basically if you are in west coast and you order around Feb-20ish +/- you would've gotten it by end of quarter. Last week of Feb is too late to make it into March production and delivery, so May/June delivery is correct with yours.