Then you need to address the numbers. There are probably 300k reservations for the model 3 in the USA alone. Sales of the C class, 3-series, A4, don't even add up to 200k cars sold in a year.
Sales of Camry, Corolla, Civic, Accord, etc add up to 2 million cars sold in the USA in a year.
I doubt that entry level luxury cars will see a 90% drop in sales next year... so where are the reservations coming from? I can only deduce
that most of these buyers are coming from outside of the entry level luxury car segment.
You are basing your opinion on someone you talked to. Like people who say they don't know anyone who voted for Trump.
I don't think they would be stuck. I just think appealing to 5million potential customers is better than 500k potential customers. They are taking a chunk of the 5 million now without even trying. They were going to get some entry level luxury buyers no matter what.
I just think it is worth talking about and comparing. Guy who would typically spend 30k on a sedan decides to splurge 45k on a tesla. How do those autos compare? Why make this financial move? I thought I would find more discussion on this here. It is an interesting consumer behaviour issue.
I think you're basically right, but it's more complex than that.
Many are from entry level luxury, but many are not. For example, my family, and my parents are not in the entry level luxury market. We're more the loaded Accord/Camry type. However, we have or have had luxury cars before. I had a 3 series before and will be replacing an entry level Lexus with the 3. My parents have had S and E classes. For a variety of reasons, the Model 3 appeals to us. We like the $35,000 price. Especially with the tax rebate. The loaded $59,000 price is a blow, but not enough to put us off. I'll probably forgo the self driving stuff to stay with the $49,000 price. I was hoping the entry level one would have 250 miles of range, but since it doesn't I'll stretch to the bigger battery. My dad always expected to pay $50,000 and since he has major range anxiety (even tho he only drives about 40 miles a day), he'll probably stretch to the full $59,000 as he likes the self driving stuff. We probably wouldn't buy another entry level luxury car (or have no plans to), but we'll "stretch" for this Model 3 for our own reasons. Others are in the market for the entry level luxury, and I can see Tesla taking
some sales, but not all. Others were hoping for a $25,000 Tesla (after tax incentives). Others can afford a S, but want the 3 simply because it's cheaper and fulfills their particular needs at a better price (all the S owners I've talked to, who are basically buying it for a spouse, child, etc). Many want it now. Plenty can afford to wait. I've talked to plenty who just threw down a deposit and haven't even went through the thought process of whether they really want one yet because it's a refundable deposit. They're getting some of that 5 million market just as they're getting some of that entry level luxury market. There's just a whole range of people to explain the 500,000 orders.
The pickup market doesn't make sense for Tesla to target... yet. Pickups and EVs aren't a good match yet. As the technology gets better, then it would make more sense for an electric EV. Time is ripe yet. In the US, it's mostly full sized pickups anyways and the tech is definitely way too premature to make a decent full sized pickup.
