n2mb_racing
Active Member
I'm struggling with this decision too. I have a Model 3 Performance now, and I want to get a Model S Plaid. I leased a P90DL back in 2016 when they had those ridiculous lease deals on inventory cars. I paid $700 / month with no downpayment for a 24 month lease. Leasing was fine, although slightly stressful to turn in the car, with some hiccups in the process. Probably still easier than selling. I bought my Model 3 with a loan that is now paid off.
Assuming the money doesn't matter, but I still want to feel like I got a reasonably good deal... Also, I apparently don't drive much, since my Model 3 has under 15k miles on it in 3 years. Why not lease?
If we compare a Plaid with FSD for $142,490. Lease payment would be 1937 / month.
Total payments over 3 years, excluding vehicle tax and registrations, would be $78,322.00 .
With a 3 year loan at 2.5% (likely can do better), you'd pay $149,256.00 over 3 years.
That should mean that if you can sell the Plaid after 3 years for more than $70,934, you'd come out ahead, although I didn't account for our NC highway use tax of 3% and yearly property tax on cars of ~1% of the value. That's kind of pain to calculate. I believe it is 3% tax on each lease payment, so 2349.66 in taxes for the lease. Purchase has 3% on the price immediately, that's $4477.68, plus about 1% each year, but the estimated value decreases each year. Estimating value of 120k for year 2 and 100k for year 3, puts total tax at $7,107.28 .
Now accounting for the tax differences, you'd have to sell the car for $75,691.62 after 3 years to come out ahead.
Ok, then it gets more complicated. I also have a business that makes automotive electronics for performance cars, hence, plaid fits right in. I'm trying to estimate the tax write-off for the lease. If we assume a marginal tax rate of 32% and 2.9% for medicare self-employment tax (social security is already paid for, so I don't think that factors into the marginal tax computation), I think that means 35% of the lease payment is the deduction.
That reduces the lease payments from $78k to effectively $50k. With taxes, if my math is right, $52,436.58 over 3 years.
Now, including the tax write-off, I'd have to be able to sell the Plaid for over $103,926.70 after 3 years to come out ahead. That seems unlikely given what we've seen on depreciation on the P100D (~50%?) , although there was a large price cut in there, that probably drove down used prices a lot. Although, if plaid+ comes out in <3 years, which seems likely, the Plaid will certainly be worth a lot less.
Last decision factor. I actually really want the new Roadster, but I'm pretty sure it isn't coming out for another 2 years. If it does launch in 2023, I'll be stuck in my Plaid lease until end of 2024 (I know, first world problems here). Whereas, if I purchased, I could just sell the Plaid whenever I want and buy the Roadster. Maybe I could sell the lease or trade-in early?
Decisions...
Assuming the money doesn't matter, but I still want to feel like I got a reasonably good deal... Also, I apparently don't drive much, since my Model 3 has under 15k miles on it in 3 years. Why not lease?
If we compare a Plaid with FSD for $142,490. Lease payment would be 1937 / month.
Total payments over 3 years, excluding vehicle tax and registrations, would be $78,322.00 .
With a 3 year loan at 2.5% (likely can do better), you'd pay $149,256.00 over 3 years.
That should mean that if you can sell the Plaid after 3 years for more than $70,934, you'd come out ahead, although I didn't account for our NC highway use tax of 3% and yearly property tax on cars of ~1% of the value. That's kind of pain to calculate. I believe it is 3% tax on each lease payment, so 2349.66 in taxes for the lease. Purchase has 3% on the price immediately, that's $4477.68, plus about 1% each year, but the estimated value decreases each year. Estimating value of 120k for year 2 and 100k for year 3, puts total tax at $7,107.28 .
Now accounting for the tax differences, you'd have to sell the car for $75,691.62 after 3 years to come out ahead.
Ok, then it gets more complicated. I also have a business that makes automotive electronics for performance cars, hence, plaid fits right in. I'm trying to estimate the tax write-off for the lease. If we assume a marginal tax rate of 32% and 2.9% for medicare self-employment tax (social security is already paid for, so I don't think that factors into the marginal tax computation), I think that means 35% of the lease payment is the deduction.
That reduces the lease payments from $78k to effectively $50k. With taxes, if my math is right, $52,436.58 over 3 years.
Now, including the tax write-off, I'd have to be able to sell the Plaid for over $103,926.70 after 3 years to come out ahead. That seems unlikely given what we've seen on depreciation on the P100D (~50%?) , although there was a large price cut in there, that probably drove down used prices a lot. Although, if plaid+ comes out in <3 years, which seems likely, the Plaid will certainly be worth a lot less.
Last decision factor. I actually really want the new Roadster, but I'm pretty sure it isn't coming out for another 2 years. If it does launch in 2023, I'll be stuck in my Plaid lease until end of 2024 (I know, first world problems here). Whereas, if I purchased, I could just sell the Plaid whenever I want and buy the Roadster. Maybe I could sell the lease or trade-in early?
Decisions...