Why Model S/X will not see 2170 cells any time soon.

[henderrj]

I'll make an even bolder prediction: Model S and X will be discontinued within 2-3 years in favor of higher Model 3/Y production. Roadster will be their new cherry.

On this one I will heartily disagree with you. It would be like Mercedes discontinuing the S class because the C and B class are making great money. And, at 200k, a 2 plus 2 just isn't going to sell at any kind of volume. It will be a novelty for sure, but won't grab the imagination of the masses like the S and X can.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

On this one I will heartily disagree with you. It would be like Mercedes discontinuing the S class because the C and B class are making great money. And, at 200k, a 2 plus 2 just isn't going to sell at any kind of volume. It will be a novelty for sure, but won't grab the imagination of the masses like the S and X can.

But Mercedes is a much more mature manufacturer, with less revolutionary disconnect between models. Making an S Class is a much more mature process than making a Model S, from that perspective.

Look, I'm with you on the odds. I don't think Model S/X will be likely cancelled either. But I could just about see it happening if Tesla deems shutting them down for a while and bringing them back later with a new production line and a more modern product etc. would make sense.

Think about it, a super-modern Model 3 production process churning out cars by robots and 2170 batteries by the Semi-load... and then you have a 2012 Model S being build alongside it with old production line, old supply process, old product design, perhaps even old battery design etc... Shutting it down and starting over, why not...

Tesla wants to re-invent the whole factory. At some point the way Model S/X is made will be antiquated compared to Model 3. Could there be a significant disconnect - time-wise - between shutting the old way down and bringing in the new way... IMO there could. Probably won't, but could...

Tesla Roadster was an extreme example. The old way of making it was shut down and the new way of making it is coming down the line. Of course that had the Lotus connection/limited production etc., so an apples and oranges example, but still it isn't impossible.

Even the Germans take breaks with their highest-end models. There are years between sporty models when they are not available at all.

Not saying this will happen, AT ALL. But it doesn't seem completely out there as a speculation.

 

[henderrj]

Well, it's been more than 18 months. I'm reviving this thread, rather than creating a new one, because I think the history is relevant. I'm now afraid it's going to be at least another year before we see 2170s in places 18650s. For all the reasons I listed at the beginning, but also because I think it's going to be tied to the refresh of the model S and X. As much as I want it to, I don't think that's going to happen for a year at least.

 

[xyeahtony]

Also because Tesla doesn't have any spare 2170s. All of them are going to the Model 3 ramp up, the Tesla Semi, and the upcoming roadster. We're not likely to see an S/X refresh until after the roadster comes out if I had to bet.

 

[henderrj]

Also because Tesla doesn't have any spare 2170s. All of them are going to the Model 3 ramp up, the Tesla Semi, and the upcoming roadster. We're not likely to see an S/X refresh until after the roadster comes out if I had to bet.

I think you are correct about the Roadster and S/X update. All the other stuff, that's basically was the convention, yes.

 

[J X 3]

They need a substantial redesign for the new cells but the cars need a redesign anyway.
Both S&X could use an updated interior, smarter suspension, better sustained perf would not hurt on the marketing side, X needs a major facelift.
Strongest reasons to update in Dec -April would be Supercharger V3 and the increased competition.
Cost is a factor and it's also time to go beyond 100kWh - helps with charging too, in terms of miles added per unit of time.
So chances are they were working on it but remains to be seen if the M3 mess added any delays.
If they don't update, they'll likely struggle to sell 100k units in 2019, if they do update, they can try to aim higher.
Cell production is a Panasonic issue and no reason to expect they can't deliver on things planned ahead.
My bet is that they announce an update at Supercharger V3 event as it would be unwise to do it at the Model Y event.

 

[jbcarioca]

My speculation is that the GF cell production is majority devoted to storage right now and storage demand is rising so quickly that automotive capacity is severely constrained. That situation will not materially change for several years. Thus, Model S and X refresh and battery change will wait for new battery capacity. That could come from several places including Panasonic in China and/or Japan, Samsung or others. The only question is how quickly new GF and battery capacity can grow. If raw materials are assured and quick battery supply growth is assured I think we'll see Model S and X refresh, Model Y, Pickup, Semi and Roadster all coming in quick succession.

After all, Tesla/Elon could never allow stability and slow growth to happen!

In my view the primary constraint to the ability to vanquish the Shorts/FUDsters because all that growth will be very capital intensive. Of course all that might have non public sources too.
This is not OT, I think, because Model S and X refresh do largely depend on external factors as constraints.

 

[scaesare]

They need a substantial redesign for the new cells but the cars need a redesign anyway.
Both S&X could use an updated interior, smarter suspension, better sustained perf would not hurt on the marketing side, X needs a major facelift.
Strongest reasons to update in Dec -April would be Supercharger V3 and the increased competition.
Cost is a factor and it's also time to go beyond 100kWh - helps with charging too, in terms of miles added per unit of time.
So chances are they were working on it but remains to be seen if the M3 mess added any delays.
If they don't update, they'll likely struggle to sell 100k units in 2019, if they do update, they can try to aim higher.
Cell production is a Panasonic issue and no reason to expect they can't deliver on things planned ahead.
My bet is that they announce an update at Supercharger V3 event as it would be unwise to do it at the Model Y event.

I suspect the only substantial redesign necessary would be the internals of a new pack. The casing itself might not need to change much, if at all, in it's external dimensions.

In one of the teardown videos (WK057's I think) it was noted that there was 1/4" (6.5mm) of dead space in the bottom of the pack below the modules. You could ostensibly fit a 70mm tall cell in there, as that's only 5mm taller than the current cells...

 

[Maxv]

21 refers to the diameter. Length is 70mm, up from 65. Your point is valid but the extra space may be there to allow for possible dents or tolerance stackups.

I suspect the only substantial redesign necessary would be the internals of a new pack. The casing itself might not need to change much, if at all, in it's external dimensions.

In one of the teardown videos (WK057's I think) it was noted that there was 1/4" (6.5mm) of dead space in the bottom of the pack below the modules. You could ostensibly fit a 21mm tall cell in there, as that's only 3mm taller than the current cells...

 

[scaesare]

21 refers to the diameter. Length is 70mm, up from 65. Your point is valid but the extra space may be there to allow for possible dents or tolerance stackups.

Duh yeah, I'm an idiot. (Lack of coffee is my story...)

Corrected, thanks...

 

[electracity]

My speculation is that the GF cell production is majority devoted to storage right now and storage demand is rising so quickly that automotive capacity is severely constrained.

I think the opposite: automotive battery demand constrains storage

 

[electracity]

On this one I will heartily disagree with you. It would be like Mercedes discontinuing the S class because the C and B class are making great money. And, at 200k, a 2 plus 2 just isn't going to sell at any kind of volume. It will be a novelty for sure, but won't grab the imagination of the masses like the S and X can.

I don't think the S would be discontinued, but perhaps become new luxury model built on a variant of the model 3 platform.

I'm sure the way to think of all future car and light truck models is to think from gigafactory pack production outwards. What pack would a future S/X/ full size pickup use?

The pickup is completely confusing because Musk keeps showing pics of a medium duty truck as an F150 alternative.

 

[J X 3]

I suspect the only substantial redesign necessary would be the internals of a new pack. The casing itself might not need to change much, if at all, in it's external dimensions.

In one of the teardown videos (WK057's I think) it was noted that there was 1/4" (6.5mm) of dead space in the bottom of the pack below the modules. You could ostensibly fit a 70mm tall cell in there, as that's only 5mm taller than the current cells...

Tesla claimed in a results call ( likely Q4) that they are limited to 100k units for S&X this year because they would need a substantial redesign for the new cells. Don't have a clue where to find a transcript to provide a quote anymore but you can try finding one.

 

[David99]

I don't understand why so many people are concerned about the battery production being constrained for the new cells. Tesla is clearly capable of producing enough cells for all their cars and storage products. There is no shortage or constrain like it used to be in 2015. There is absolutely no reason Tesla can't package 2170 cells instead of 18650. It's just a different size. Everything else is almost identical. I'm pretty sure they already have a redesigned Model S/X pack with the new cells. A refreshed Model S/X would require a lot of changes to the entire production line and suppliers. Once they have the money and resources for that, they will come out with a refreshed S/X and it will have the new cells. I think the cells aren't the hold back right now.

 

[henderrj]

I don't understand why so many people are concerned about the battery production being constrained for the new cells. Tesla is clearly capable of producing enough cells for all their cars and storage products. There is no shortage or constrain like it used to be in 2015. There is absolutely no reason Tesla can't package 2170 cells instead of 18650. It's just a different size. Everything else is almost identical. I'm pretty sure they already have a redesigned Model S/X pack with the new cells. A refreshed Model S/X would require a lot of changes to the entire production line and suppliers. Once they have the money and resources for that, they will come out with a refreshed S/X and it will have the new cells. I think the cells aren't the hold back right now.

Data? Simple calculations of outputs, vehicles and powerpacks, seems to indicate the current 20 gwh output is fully accounted for. As to updating the 18650 manufacturing equipment, I doubt it's a simple thing.

 

[ohmman]

I think the interesting position they'll be put in is that the new packs on the 3 appear to be capable of charging at 1.5C vs. 1C on the 100 packs. Supercharging is going to be faster on the 3 than on the S/X with the old cells. Hard to know if enough people will care or notice, but it matters a bit to me. If they put new cells and packs in the X that are capable of faster Supercharging, I'm likely to be in line for a new one. Of course, that assumes a bit of extra capacity as well.

 

[freeewilly]

Since Tesla is not like any other car companies with model years, I'm always wonder how is Tesla going to handle the release of the next completely resign Model S. It will be completely chaos for some that order a new Model S and find out Tesla resign the car before delivery.

I think it makes sense for Tesla stop manufacture Model S for a few months and announce the new model. They still have plenty Model 3 need to be build, so there is no impact to their production line.

 

[croman]

Since Tesla is not like any other car companies with model years, I'm always wonder how is Tesla going to handle the release of the next completely resign Model S. It will be completely chaos for some that order a new Model S and find out Tesla resign the car before delivery.

I think it makes sense for Tesla stop manufacture Model S for a few months and announce the new model. They still have plenty Model 3 need to be build, so there is no impact to their production line.

Tesla is 100% indifferent. They say go buy another car if you're worried about that stuff. I think Tesla should make the new batteries available to old cars but they also want to sell everyone new cars instead.

 

[xyeahtony]

I don't understand why so many people are concerned about the battery production being constrained for the new cells. Tesla is clearly capable of producing enough cells for all their cars and storage products.

Until only recently, the gigafactory was one part of the Model 3 bottlenecks. They wern't making enough batteries clearly.

X needs a major facelift.

Does it? it's only been in production for 2.5 years....

 

[J X 3]

Until only recently, the gigafactory was one part of the Model 3 bottlenecks. They wern't making enough batteries clearly.

Does it? it's only been in production for 2.5 years....

The battery shortage was more on the pack side not on the cell side. Panasonic did say recently that there were some sporadic cell shortages because the M3 production ramped very fast and surprised them but there is no reason to assume cell shortages. For anything planned ahead, Panasonic can handle.There will be shortages when there is unexpected demand, mostly on the energy storage side.

Model X needs a substantial facelift because nobody can call it gorgeous. Model S matured and no point in changing much but Model X has plenty of room for improvement on the looks side.They could also adjust the rear a bit for more cargo space, don 't think anyone would complain about that.
And ofc in 2020-2022 they need radical updates for full autonomy. If it's a living room on wheels, they need to adjust.