Why Model S/X will not see 2170 cells any time soon.

[J X 3]

@ henderrj
Please stop reading fake news websites, it's supper annoying to have to provide a source for such basic facts.

'According to the agreement, Tesla will prepare, provide and manage the land, buildings and utilities. Panasonic will
manufacture and supply cylindrical lithium-ion cells and invest in the associated equipment, machinery, and other
manufacturing tools based on their mutual approval. A network of supplier partners is planned to produce the required
precursor materials. Tesla will take the cells and other components to assemble battery modules and packs. To meet the
projected demand for cells, Tesla will continue to purchase battery cells produced in Panasonic's factories in
Japan' ''
PDF http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...43FA/TSLA_News_2014_7_31_General_Releases.pdf
This will do too I suppose Tesla’s battery partner Panasonic increases production in Japan for other automakers

@ dhanson865
Thanks for providing the time of the question.

"Q: It sounds like from the letter that you could do more than 100k S&X in '18 but you are constarined by the 18650 and I am just curious, you know, what would it take to see the 2170 cells in these vehicles?
A: JB: It's something we've ofc contemplated but it's quite a large change to the architecture of the module of the battery pack overall and you know while the 18650 supply is somewhat of a cap at 100k units per year, you know , even just a few months ago, you know, we didn't feel that expanding supply with Panasonic in Japan was really the right risk. It's something we could consider but right now we are pretty happy with that as it matches our other capabilities and our other investments."
Then Musk goes on with the BS you note but let's remember that S&X are on two shifts now so Tesla is loosing money there by not having 3 shits and 50% higher output - higher per unit depreciation for buildings and machines wit just 2 shifts.
What they are really saying is that they don't feel they can sell more than 100k , see the second half of JB"s answer. Then Musk jumps in to spin it.

So pack needs a major redesign, the cells are a limitation but real one is demand.
OK so this is good news, seems it's easier to do than I thought as I was convinced they need major changes to the car chassis.

 

[henderrj]

@ henderrj
Please stop reading fake news websites, it's supper annoying to have to provide a source for such basic facts.

'According to the agreement, Tesla will prepare, provide and manage the land, buildings and utilities. Panasonic will
manufacture and supply cylindrical lithium-ion cells and invest in the associated equipment, machinery, and other
manufacturing tools based on their mutual approval. A network of supplier partners is planned to produce the required
precursor materials. Tesla will take the cells and other components to assemble battery modules and packs. To meet the
projected demand for cells, Tesla will continue to purchase battery cells produced in Panasonic's factories in
Japan' ''
PDF http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...43FA/TSLA_News_2014_7_31_General_Releases.pdf
This will do too I suppose Tesla’s battery partner Panasonic increases production in Japan for other automakers

@ dhanson865
Thanks for providing the time of the question.

"Q: It sounds like from the letter that you could do more than 100k S&X in '18 but you are constarined by the 18650 and I am just curious, you know, what would it take to see the 2170 cells in these vehicles?
A: JB: It's something we've ofc contemplated but it's quite a large change to the architecture of the module of the battery pack overall and you know while the 18650 supply is somewhat of a cap at 100k units per year, you know , even just a few months ago, you know, we didn't feel that expanding supply with Panasonic in Japan was really the right risk. It's something we could consider but right now we are pretty happy with that as it matches our other capabilities and our other investments."
Then Musk goes on with the BS you note but let's remember that S&X are on two shifts now so Tesla is loosing money there by not having 3 shits and 50% higher output - higher per unit depreciation for buildings and machines wit just 2 shifts.
What they are really saying is that they don't feel they can sell more than 100k , see the second half of JB"s answer. Then Musk jumps in to spin it.

So pack needs a major redesign, the cells are a limitation but real one is demand.
OK so this is good news, seems it's easier to do than I thought as I was convinced they need major changes to the car chassis.

All this is well known data, but doesn't have anything to do with your earlier contention. That is that you thought that cell production was not a constraint. That is to say 2170 cells. I've still yet to see anything that convinces me that they have so many extra of those that they don't know what to do with them. Which is what I gathered you were trying to say. Perhaps I was incorrect.

 

[dhanson865]

What they are really saying is that they don't feel they can sell more than 100k , see the second half of JB"s answer. Then Musk jumps in to spin it.

BS, Years and years ago they set a goal to sell about 100k S/X and they built the factory lines to do that. It's not that they can't sell more than 100k. If they magically could make twice as many tomorrow with no new expenses other than the cost of materials for the increased production they'd do it.

The reality is modifying those lines means shutting them down. It also means spending time, money, effort on changing the lines to some new target (125,000, 150,000, 200,000, 250,000), whatever you choose the line will be built to that limit and would then be unable to exceed the new number without opening pandoras box again.

During any such rework they tank that quarters earnings with capital expenses and reduced production for the expected gain later. But why do that right now while Model 3 production is the #1 concern? No good reason to hobble finished mature lines and restructure them in the middle of a ramp of a bunch of new lines for Model 3. That'd just be poor planning to do it all at the same time.

They will adjust S/X production capability when they get another gigafactory up and running. Then the 100K in Fremont can be shipped only to the America customers (North, South, Central as in Canada, Mexico, and places further south) and the new gigafactor(y/ies) can make S/X for Asia or Europe.

They have an expansion plan already, They don't want to stop the current plan to focus on S/X line changes in Fremont because that wasn't part of their plan.

 

[J X 3]

BS, Years and years ago they set a goal to sell about 100k S/X and they built the factory lines to do that. It's not that they can't sell more than 100k. If they magically could make twice as many tomorrow with no new expenses other than the cost of materials for the increased production they'd do it.

The reality is modifying those lines means shutting them down. It also means spending time, money, effort on changing the lines to some new target (125,000, 150,000, 200,000, 250,000), whatever you choose the line will be built to that limit and would then be unable to exceed the new number without opening pandoras box again.

During any such rework they tank that quarters earnings with capital expenses and reduced production for the expected gain later. But why do that right now while Model 3 production is the #1 concern? No good reason to hobble finished mature lines and restructure them in the middle of a ramp of a bunch of new lines for Model 3. That'd just be poor planning to do it all at the same time.

They will adjust S/X production capability when they get another gigafactory up and running. Then the 100K in Fremont can be shipped only to the America customers (North, South, Central as in Canada, Mexico, and places further south) and the new gigafactor(y/ies) can make S/X for Asia or Europe.

They have an expansion plan already, They don't want to stop the current plan to focus on S/X line changes in Fremont because that wasn't part of their plan.

I'll remind you once again that S&X are on 2 shifts not 3, so they can produce 50% more with 3 shifts, aside from paint and a few other areas. But since not everything is on 24/7, they are losing money by not producing more.

@ henderrj
Panasonic is not Tesla , they don't screw up, they will provide the output that is required when required.
Model 3 production is far behind the original schedule, to argue that demand for 2170 is high is insane.
I am done with both of you as facts don't seem to have any relevance and you just need to create your own reality that glorifies Tesla. What's the difference between you two and Fox News viewers?

 

[henderrj]

I'll remind you once again that S&X are on 2 shifts not 3, so they can produce 50% more with 3 shifts, aside from paint and a few other areas. But since not everything is on 24/7, they are losing money by not producing more.

@ henderrj
Panasonic is not Tesla , they don't screw up, they will provide the output that is required when required.
Model 3 production is far behind the original schedule, to argue that demand for 2170 is high is insane.
I am done with both of you as facts don't seem to have any relevance and you just need to create your own reality that glorifies Tesla. What's the difference between you two and Fox News viewers?

I fear I must agree with @dhanson865 and call you on all this. Panasonic doesn't screw up? And Tesla always does? Nobody doesn't make mistakes. And the data is still the data.

Also as to your disagreement about two shifts versus three shifts. Running three shifts continuously means maintenance must be put off until some other time when you shut down everything. No, three shifts is a major, major, production issue. I don't think you have much experience or knowledge in any of these areas. Thanks for trying, but I really don't think you understand.

Unless, your purpose never was to understand. But just Express an opinion negative towards Tesla. I certainly might be considered a Tesla fanboy, But not that much. I love my Model S, don't know if you own a Tesla car or not, but I'm not willing to put on Rose Colored Glasses either. In fact, my very position, the new 2170 format won't be used in the current model S/X vehicles for quite some time, could be seen as negative towards Tesla, not positive. It's reality I'm interested in, not some ideas fabricated out of what seems to be thin air. Okay to be wrong, but need proof.

 

[scaesare]

There is a little discussion starting here. Seems like it may not merely be cell chemistry but also the pack’s thermal properties. No way to be certain but the data do seem to indicate that the new packs can take more power longer.

What will be interesting is to see what a 200KW Roadster pack made of the latest cell design attached to a Semi Megacharger will be capable of .

 

[MP3Mike]

I'll remind you once again that S&X are on 2 shifts not 3, so they can produce 50% more with 3 shifts, aside from paint and a few other areas. But since not everything is on 24/7, they are losing money by not producing more.

Elon said that the entire supply chain for the Model S&X was sized for ~100k a year. So adding a third shift would just waste labor unless the entire supply line, including third party suppliers was updated, assuming that they even could, to make 50% more cars. And is there long term demand at that level to make the expense worth it?

Panasonic is not Tesla , they don't screw up, they will provide the output that is required when required.
Model 3 production is far behind the original schedule, to argue that demand for 2170 is high is insane.

@J X 3 So are you saying that Panasonic was lying when they said that the Model 3 ramp was causing cell shortages?

What do you consider high demand for 2170 cells? Tesla is currently using 22,080,000 2170 cells per week just for the Model 3 while they are at the 5,000/week step. (That is over 1 billion cells a year, and Tesla still has plans to ramp beyond that.)

And there is a lot of demand for the cells from the Tesla Energy side of the house as well.

 

[WarpedOne]

What kind of efficiency?
-space, cobalt minimal usage, easier to make, easier to assemble, something else...

Yes.

 

[electracity]

I've seen Australian reports that the Powerwall supply dried up. Of course it could be a cell shortage, or moving gigafactory labor to produce car batteries, or Tesla Energy focusing on Puerto Rico.

Whatever the cause the Powerwall is supply constrained.

 

[mdevp]

Does anyone know how much more kWh (if any) would 2170 cells in a 100D would be? Im assuming the physical pack size can't be changed. Or would it be other reasons, (cooling etc). Sorry if already calculated.

 

[WarpedOne]

One cannot really calculate this as it is not just the geometry ... cooling, bms, etc.
The wag of what to expect is around 5 to 10%.

 

[Brovane]

One of the reasons for building the Giga-Factory according to Tesla was that the factory would be able to produce batteries at a 20-30% cost savings.

Could the reluctance to switch the Model S and X over to the 2170 be because the expected cost savings hasn't materialized yet from the GF1?
Or has Panasonic been able to offer lower prices for the 18650 cell than Tesla originally expected?

 

[WarpedOne]

There is quite huge production capacity for 18650.
There is quite huge demand for cars using 18650.
There is thus quite a small reason to cancel some of that production capacity and thus reduce the production of those cars.

It was also stated that P100D@2170 would be less of a car than P100D@18650.

 

[scaesare]

It was also stated that P100D@2170 would be less of a car than P100D@18650.

By whom?

And why?

 

[WarpedOne]

By Elon.
Because 2170 is not targeted at high peak power output.

 

[scaesare]

By Elon.
Because 2170 is not targeted at high peak power output.

Do you have a citation/link for this?

 

[WarpedOne]

IIRC it was at the last shareholder conference.
He was explicitly asked if/when S/X would be upgraded to 2170 and replied there are no such plans currently and gave above explanation of 18650 offering higher performance.

 

[dennis_d]

IIRC it was at the last shareholder conference.
He was explicitly asked if/when S/X would be upgraded to 2170 and replied there are no such plans currently and gave above explanation of 18650 offering higher performance.

Yes, that's was a comment from Musk I was referring to

 

[henderrj]

IIRC it was at the last shareholder conference.
He was explicitly asked if/when S/X would be upgraded to 2170 and replied there are no such plans currently and gave above explanation of 18650 offering higher performance.

So, one more reason not to expect a cell change anytime soon. Now I wonder if they ever will change it! (Everything is a compromise I suppose.)

 

[mdevp]

Question, does anyone else remember/hearing Elon or JD saying that because of some characteristic of the 2170 chemistry that if you did put them in the 100D/P100D pack it would reduce the 0-60 times/1/4miles etc? I'm not sure if I am imagining this, lol.