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Why more superchargers alone can't prevent overcrowding

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dsm363,
The solutions are in the opening message. The office worker example assumes no solution is implemented. For example if real-time data on availability is implemented to 17" screen, in the office analogy this would mean the customers could see which desks have how many documents when they come in.

Lloyd said number of stations is increasing and I mentioned the office worker example to show that even if it increases faster than cars it doesn't help without some other solution such as one of the solutions in the opening message.
 
Honestly, I don't know if there's a need to have the same quantitative number of Superchargers as there are gas stations/pumps. The reason being is that you can do home "refueling" with EVs that isn't practical with ICE cars (except CNG, to some extent). Especially with the longer range of Teslas (as compared to other EVs) I only really see the need for Superchargers along commonly-traveled routes. I see most commuters doing most of their charging at home/work.

I know the whole argument of apartment/multi-unit dwellers, which is a separate discussion. But I think an ultimate goal of Superchargers (say six charging bays) every 100 miles on interstates or major highways should suffice.
 
Here is another analogy:

Imagine an office worked sitting on a desk and processing documents. She can process 10 documents in 40 minutes, representing a station with 10 stalls. There is a steady stream of 10 customers per 40 minutes. Demand and capacity is an exact match. Customers put the documents on the desk and leave.

Now let's double the demand from 10 customers to 20 per 40 minutes. We need to double the capacity too but unfortunately we can't make the office worker process more documents (replicating 10 stall limit). Instead we add another desks and office worker.

When people arrive they have to leave their documents on one of the desks without knowing the workload. This replicates the fact that you don't know how crowded a station is before you arrive there. Because the randomness of choice sometimes one desk or the other will be overloaded.

Now image demand would increase 10 times instead 2 and there would be 10 desks. The possibility that some of desks will be overloaded a few times their capacity is high.

Perhaps you should re-think that analogy. Processing paperwork is the perfect centralized task. You focus on cost per transaction and get the lowest cost labor to perform the work (yes -- that leads to outsourcing to low cost countries, something Tesla can't do with a Supercharger). You also normally balance resources (i.e. "number of desks") to slightly above the volume low points (since volume graphed over time will have peaks and valleys) -- and at peak volume, you can defer some work to later (first in / first out, process the backlog within a reasonable time). So queues at Superchargers at peak times should be expected, although I'd also expect them to be reasonable.

But charging a Tesla is not a centralized task. Its distributed -- even more so than an ICE since a Tesla can refuel at home (and very few ICEs can). I have over 17,000 miles on my Tesla now -- with only 400 of those miles from Superchargers and perhaps another 400 from other public chargers, so I'm similar to Lloyd where >95% of my charging comes from home. But if you want to focus on Superchargers only, those are also distributed -- over 125 now built with more on the way. Tesla will continue to build them out as needed. Some sites will get additional capacity, and new sites will be added in between existing locations (which is already happening -- Oxnard CA for example).

If you assume that Tesla allocates $2k from each Model S sold for Supercharger build-out and operations (excluding 60s without Supercharging enabled), your volume forecast for ~80k Teslas sold per year (after GenIII intro) provides $160MM annually for Tesla to use to build new superchargers and operate the existing sites. Other threads have speculated that the Supercharger sites cost ~$150k to implement -- so the Tesla has spent ~$19MM on the existing infrastructure globally, compared to $75MM+ paid by customers to use the Superchargers -- they have plenty of funding to build and operate the network. As more cars are sold, they can continue to expand the network. Yes, that $2k is based on the option price to enable supercharging on a Model S, but even if Tesla allocates $1k or $1.5k from each Model S sale to the SC Network, the financial model likely still works. And it scales with your volume forecast.

And I haven't even mentioned the what-if of other manufacturers or energy companies getting into the Supercharger business. If that happens and Supercharging becomes the default DC charging standard, I would not be surprised to see a few supercharger stalls added to most existing gas stations (and possibly replacing the gas pumps). Although if that happens, I'd expect to see fewer refueling stations around since most people will still charge from home...
 
igotzzoom,
I think your description fits solution #3 in opening message which is "On-road stations". These are stations on pit stop lanes parallel to the main road. You don't need to divert from the highway and then drive a few miles. The current stations are not like that. Currently you need to pick a station without knowing availability. Then you leave the highway. Drive on some other road for a while and then you arrive at a supercharger and only then you know if it is completely crowded or not. So the problem is, "let's go and find out" type drivers will increase and decrease so much randomly that when you arrive there you will see 30 cars and 10 stalls or 5 cars. With the pit stop lanes parallel to the main road, this problem won't happen because you can just continue driving on the highway.
 
igotzzoom,
Currently you need to pick a station without knowing availability. Then you leave the highway. Drive on some other road for a while and then you arrive at a supercharger and only then you know if it is completely crowded or not. So the problem is, "let's go and find out" type drivers will increase and decrease so much randomly that when you arrive there you will see 30 cars and 10 stalls or 5 cars.

This is changing I believe with an imminent update. Availability is visible to Tesla, and supercharger status easily could be available to the fleet via the center console. Check the display of the Bink network. I anticipate a similiar display.
 
Currently there are 27K cars and 98 stations in the US. When there are 270K cars there should be 980 stations. Lets assume for a moment it is 1470 stations (980*1.5=1470). I'm going for 50% more than the rate of cars.

Yeaaaah.... I just drove from Gallup => Michigan => Barstow => WA.... visiting ~30 Superchargers, I saw another Tesla charging maybe 5 times, only once were 3/4 bays full (including me). I'm not worried:)
 
But charging a Tesla is not a centralized task. Its distributed -- even more so than an ICE since a Tesla can refuel at home

This entire topic is about superchargers between cities. We are only talking what happens on intercity highways. As you are riving along on the highway, you realize that you need to charge and if you pick a random station and don't know the availability there beforehand, then your experience will be like in the office desk example.

- - - Updated - - -

This is changing I believe with an imminent update. Availability is visible to Tesla, and supercharger status easily could be available to the fleet via the center console. Check the display of the Bink network.

Lloyd that would be solution #2 in the opening message. I didn't say there are no solutions. I only described what will happen if you do nothing. What you mentioned is a solution and should fix 80% of the problem.
 
This entire topic is about superchargers between cities. We are only talking what happens on intercity highways. As you are riving along on the highway, you realize that you need to charge and if you pick a random station and don't know the availability there beforehand, then your experience will be like in the office desk example.

But that's not what happens with most drivers of electric vehicles. You don't suddenly realize you need to charge and pick a random station. Because you start out each day with a full *tank*, you rarely need to stop to charge. So it's only on road trips that exceed the battery range - and on those trips, you will have thought about when and where you'll be charging.

There isn't anything sudden or random about it.

----

You're still thinking like the driver of an ICE, who glances down and sees the tank is almost empty. It's a different paradigm with an EV.
 
igotzzoom,
I think your description fits solution #3 in opening message which is "On-road stations". These are stations on pit stop lanes parallel to the main road. You don't need to divert from the highway and then drive a few miles. The current stations are not like that. Currently you need to pick a station without knowing availability. Then you leave the highway. Drive on some other road for a while and then you arrive at a supercharger and only then you know if it is completely crowded or not. So the problem is, "let's go and find out" type drivers will increase and decrease so much randomly that when you arrive there you will see 30 cars and 10 stalls or 5 cars. With the pit stop lanes parallel to the main road, this problem won't happen because you can just continue driving on the highway.

I think real-time charging availability displayed in the center console is probably something that is coming relatively soon. Granted, estimated availability and reservation is a moving target, but if you cross-reference average/current vehicle speed on trip, and traffic conditions, along with real-time availability (based on plug use), you could get a pretty accurate availability/reservation picture.
 
People aren't factoring in the other really obvious thing... the number of gasoline stations is going to decrease... and people will end up with range anxiety for gasoline cars. Admittedly this is at least 20 years away, and by then ICE cars will have longer ranges than they do now.

However, just taking the USA as an example, the number of gasoline stations is falling now - not rising or staying still.
No. 975: Gas Stations

Pain at Pump Hits Gas-Station Owners - WSJ
Farewell to the Gas Station: The Demise of a Car Culture Icon - The Daily Beast

Gas stations are an incredibly low-margin business, and most survive on sales of snacks & drinks. (sorta like the cinema industry :) )

There are only 50,000 Teslas on the roads these days (of both types), many of which are in the USA - but there are 250 million registered vehicles here. That huge number will slowly get eroded over the next 30 years by the growth of electric vehicles... and gasoline stations will do nothing but close in response.

What does this have to do with superchargers? As Bonnie points out, Tesla has all sorts of data and all sorts of time to figure out how to alleviate the issue of lack of superchargers. People who charge at home don't need them at all. In-car software updates will help you find "available" superchargers - i.e. ones that aren't charging cars. Stores will opt to build them in to attract electric car buyers (that won't just be Tesla cars let's face it - once the other brands start to use superchargers)

During my gasoline-powered driving days, I ran out of gas about 6 times altogether due to inattention :) and I have also waited a fair amount at busy gas stations. This problem will only get worse with fewer stations, and it will come to become part of the ICE-driving experience, and even the gasoline hobbyists of the future will find getting quality gasoline just as hard as optical camera users find the problem of getting rolls of film.
 
People aren't factoring in the other really obvious thing... the number of gasoline stations is going to decrease... and people will end up with range anxiety for gasoline cars. Admittedly this is at least 20 years away, and by then ICE cars will have longer ranges than they do now.

However, just taking the USA as an example, the number of gasoline stations is falling now - not rising or staying still.
No. 975: Gas Stations

Pain at Pump Hits Gas-Station Owners - WSJ
Farewell to the Gas Station: The Demise of a Car Culture Icon - The Daily Beast

Gas stations are an incredibly low-margin business, and most survive on sales of snacks & drinks. (sorta like the cinema industry :) )

There are only 50,000 Teslas on the roads these days (of both types), many of which are in the USA - but there are 250 million registered vehicles here. That huge number will slowly get eroded over the next 30 years by the growth of electric vehicles... and gasoline stations will do nothing but close in response.

What does this have to do with superchargers? As Bonnie points out, Tesla has all sorts of data and all sorts of time to figure out how to alleviate the issue of lack of superchargers. People who charge at home don't need them at all. In-car software updates will help you find "available" superchargers - i.e. ones that aren't charging cars. Stores will opt to build them in to attract electric car buyers (that won't just be Tesla cars let's face it - once the other brands start to use superchargers)

During my gasoline-powered driving days, I ran out of gas about 6 times altogether due to inattention :) and I have also waited a fair amount at busy gas stations. This problem will only get worse with fewer stations, and it will come to become part of the ICE-driving experience, and even the gasoline hobbyists of the future will find getting quality gasoline just as hard as optical camera users find the problem of getting rolls of film.

I think the time of gas stations being truly rare is probably about 30-40 years out, if not further. But I could see the time where gasoline becomes kind of a "boutique" fuel that sells for about $10-15 a gallon, and is only used by hobbyists that have antique cars. Everything else will be electric or hydrogen.
 
igotzzoom,
I agree with your ideas.

I think real-time charging availability displayed in the center console is probably something that is coming relatively soon.
Yes that would be solution #2.

Granted, estimated availability and reservation is a moving target, but if you cross-reference average/current vehicle speed on trip, and traffic conditions, along with real-time availability (based on plug use), you could get a pretty accurate availability/reservation picture.
And that would be solution #1. I also think this is the ultimate goal. A central computer will calculate your estimated arrival time and required charge time. It will consider a few different options. Then it will suggest a station and you will be able to lock-in the suggestion or change it, ideally with a voice command. In the future I expect the Tesla computer to talk to the driver like Siri.
 
These examples are nice and all but then what is your solution? If Tesla can't make things right with even 150,000 Superchargers in the US then what is the point? Should they just give up? There will always be limited resources and people will have to wait at times. That's part of life. I can't expect to hit rush hour traffic and still drive 65. I can't expect to hit a Supercharger on a Friday night out of town and expect zero wait. Tesla can use software, bigger batteries, lighter cars, telematics and more Superchargers and destinations to limit any pain but nothing is perfect.

The best solution in reality is to build out a network that is no more inconvenient than conventionally fueled vehicles. I like the analogy of expecting to drive at 65 mph in rush hour traffic its simply not possible. A reasonable expectational goal from tesla would be a wait no no longer than a traditional gas station on a crowded day 6-7 Minutes. There doesn't need to be a free bay located at every single prospective location waiting for any particular someone (thats capital waste), that beings said if the statical metrics guarantee 90%> that someone will be leaving within 5-10 minutes then its not too much of a worry or problem. Growing up in american society leaves many to be privileged and minor inconveniences will be blown out of portion by press. Theorize for 30 seconds an 17 year old upper middle class brat who borrowed mommys car for a weekend and is late to their non important meeting with friends. Ohhhhh how the derogatory comments that would ensue as well as slander/blame on tesla for waiting 11 minutes for a spot.
 
The best solution in reality is to build out a network that is no more inconvenient than conventionally fueled vehicles. I like the analogy of expecting to drive at 65 mph in rush hour traffic its simply not possible. A reasonable expectational goal from tesla would be a wait no no longer than a traditional gas station on a crowded day 6-7 Minutes. There doesn't need to be a free bay located at every single prospective location waiting for any particular someone (thats capital waste), that beings said if the statical metrics guarantee 90%> that someone will be leaving within 5-10 minutes then its not too much of a worry or problem. Growing up in american society leaves many to be privileged and minor inconveniences will be blown out of portion by press. Theorize for 30 seconds an 17 year old upper middle class brat who borrowed mommys car for a weekend and is late to their non important meeting with friends. Ohhhhh how the derogatory comments that would ensue as well as slander/blame on tesla for waiting 11 minutes for a spot.

But the point is, that scenario won't happen with an EV, because IF you plug in whenever you get home, you're always topped off and you don't need to find a place to charge.

People are still thinking like it's an ICE. It's not.

I know some of you drive 200+ miles in a day. But for the rest of you, reasonably, how many days a year would you actually make use of a supercharger? Let's put this conversation in context.
 
Generally I agree with Teo's argument. Tesla will need to find solutions, I believe they already know this. It is relatively simple calculation of Erlang model. Same as circuit exchange in telephony. They can scientifically estimate the number of stations and stalls.

Here's some data in Japan with mostly Leafs and CHAdeMO 50kW chargers along the highway from Tokyo to Nagoya.
http://www.chademo.com/wp/pdf/japan/nexconakanihon21.pdf
It's a Japanese PDF (sorry!) Take a look at page 8 - the highway has 38 locations with only 1 unit each. The busiest stall was used 410 times in a month, with a peak of 28 cars charged for 30 minutes in one day. During the peak times they said more than 5 cars were waiting.

Tesla or any other nationwide charging infrastructure providers would need to estimate and plan for increased demand accordingly.
 
Teo,

Now factor in that they are increasing superchargers at a rate of about 1 stall per day. If that continues..... I don't see any shortage!

Superchargers are not the only place to charge. There are other options. Tesla can charge almost anywhere. 95% of my charging is done at home and is not affected at all by supercharging.
+1

Guess this was the first post which pointed out the main flaw of the otherwise nicely calculated OP: The OP is assuming the recharging habits are similar to the old pattern of refueling while in reality it's completely different.

To fix the analogies:
- you don't usually go to a restaurant every day for breakfast.
- you don't need any officer if you can easily get what you need on a webpage from the convenience of your home
 
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The OP is assuming the recharging habits are similar to the old pattern of refueling

No, I'm not assuming that at all. There are people on youtube and news blogs who think you fill up a Tesla at a supercharger. They don't know that you charge at home most of the time. I have written countless responses trying to correct that incorrect idea. Here are two examples:

https://plus.google.com/109669758099565560515/posts/6XuPgCubha6
https://plus.google.com/u/0/106930624939993949615/posts/NiREoKx1wja

I have even started this discussion a few weeks ago. Please check what I wrote there and you can also watch a few videos.

Why is home charging not well known? | Forums | Tesla Motors

This topic is not about 98% of time when you charge at home. It is about that 2% of time when you travel from one city to another.
 
No, I'm not assuming that at all. There are people on youtube and news blogs who think you fill up a Tesla at a supercharger. They don't know that you charge at home most of the time. I have written countless responses trying to correct that incorrect idea. Here are two examples:

https://plus.google.com/109669758099565560515/posts/6XuPgCubha6
https://plus.google.com/u/0/106930624939993949615/posts/NiREoKx1wja

I have even started this discussion a few weeks ago. Please check what I wrote there and you can also watch a few videos.

Why is home charging not well known? | Forums | Tesla Motors

This topic is not about 98% of time when you charge at home. It is about that 2% of time when you travel from one city to another.
Well in that case, I guess we are completely in line. Sorry for my "accusation". But I still believe your original post of this very thread implies recharging habits similar to refueling. Maybe it's just me reading incorrectly between the lines. If so, please ignore my answer.
 
No, I'm not assuming that at all. There are people on youtube and news blogs who think you fill up a Tesla at a supercharger. They don't know that you charge at home most of the time. I have written countless responses trying to correct that incorrect idea. Here are two examples:

https://plus.google.com/109669758099565560515/posts/6XuPgCubha6
https://plus.google.com/u/0/106930624939993949615/posts/NiREoKx1wja

I have even started this discussion a few weeks ago. Please check what I wrote there and you can also watch a few videos.

Why is home charging not well known? | Forums | Tesla Motors

This topic is not about 98% of time when you charge at home. It is about that 2% of time when you travel from one city to another.

Teo, you may intellectually know that charging an EV is a different process than refueling an ICE, but the ICE bias still shows in your posts ...

This entire topic is about superchargers between cities. We are only talking what happens on intercity highways. As you are riving along on the highway, you realize that you need to charge and if you pick a random station and don't know the availability there beforehand, then your experience will be like in the office desk example.

You don't just suddenly realize you need to charge and pick a random station. Every person here who drives an EV & would be on a trip exceeding their battery range would know both 1) where they were planning to stop and charge, and, 2) a backup plan.

The 'random station' is an ICE thing right now. I'll be thrilled when charging stations are so plentiful that I pick a random place to charge. But right now? Heck no! I'm going to know where I'm charging before I leave home. Any other EV driver here feel differently?