Why no FSD 'leaks' from Elon?

[dckiwi]

Elon's comments on the earnings call got me thinking - if his alpha build is so amazing, why has he never been tempted to tweet out a teaser video showing impressive FSD maneuvers?

I know this question is unanswerable - only Elon knows. But just based on his personality and openness on social media, I'm surprised he doesn't occasionally tease us (and silence his critics) with photos/videos. Even a 10 second video showing a turn at an intersection would drum up positive publicity for days.

The cynical answer is that the features aren't actually there yet, even in his car. Otherwise he's just really disciplined with this information, which doesn't seem right either.......

 

[diplomat33]

Elon's comments on the earnings call got me thinking - if his alpha build is so amazing, why has he never been tempted to tweet out a teaser video showing impressive FSD maneuvers?

I know this question is unanswerable - only Elon knows. But just based on his personality and openness on social media, I'm surprised he doesn't occasionally tease us (and silence his critics) with photos/videos. Even a 10 second video showing a turn at an intersection would drum up positive publicity for days.

The cynical answer is that the features aren't actually there yet, even in his car. Otherwise he's just really disciplined with this information, which doesn't seem right either.......

Elon did say that he could not do his commute without some disengagements. So the cynical explanation that the features are not really that good yet, is possible.

The other possibility is that Elon could get in trouble with the regulators from the CA DMV. If he tweeted videos that look like autonomous driving, especially if he disabled the nags, then the CA DMV will demand to know why Tesla is not reporting the miles like they are required to do by law. Remember that by law, companies have to report any autonomous miles done in CA to the DMV. Tesla is clearly testing autonomous driving but is not reporting any miles because they are claiming that it's not really autonomous since the driver has to hold the wheel or get nagged. It's a cute loop hole. When Tesla did the FSD demo during Autonomy Day, they disabled the nags to show off that it was autonomous, and had to report the miles to the CA DMV. If Elon is testing autonomous driving without the nags, then he is breaking the law by not reporting it.

If you check this thread, Emails between Tesla and CA DMV on Smart Summon, FSD, there were a bunch of emails that leaked that showed that the CA DMV followed up pretty hard on Tesla on why they were not reporting any autonomous miles. The CA DMV also followed up pretty hard about Smart Summon, demanding a demo, and also demanded an explanation on the traffic light control feature. So if Tesla were to start showing off autonomous features like turning at intersections, especially with no nags,, they would face some heat from the regulators.

 

[Mo City]

Elon did say that he could not do his commute without some disengagements. So the cynical explanation that the features are not really that good yet, is possible.

The other possibility is that Elon could get in trouble with the regulators from the CA DMV. If he tweeted videos that look like autonomous driving, especially if he disabled the nags, then the CA DMV will demand to know why Tesla is not reporting the miles like they are required to do by law. Remember that by law, companies have to report any autonomous miles done in CA to the DMV. Tesla is clearly testing autonomous driving but is not reporting any miles because they are claiming that it's not really autonomous since the driver has to hold the wheel or get nagged. It's a cute loop hole. When Tesla did the FSD demo during Autonomy Day, they disabled the nags to show off that it was autonomous, and had to report the miles to the CA DMV. If Elon is testing autonomous driving without the nags, then he is breaking the law by not reporting it.

If you check this thread, Emails between Tesla and CA DMV on Smart Summon, FSD, there were a bunch of emails that leaked that showed that the CA DMV followed up pretty hard on Tesla on why they were not reporting any autonomous miles. The CA DMV also followed up pretty hard about Smart Summon, demanding a demo, and also demanded an explanation on the traffic light control feature. So if Tesla were to start showing off autonomous features like turning at intersections, especially with no nags,, they would face some heat from the regulators.

Couldn't they demonstrate the advanced features by releasing videos with drivers holding the steering wheel while AP is engaged?

 

[diplomat33]

Couldn't they demonstrate the advanced features by releasing videos with drivers holding the steering wheel while AP is engaged?

Perhaps. Of course, during sharp turns, they would have to hold the wheel loosely so as not to accidentally disengage AP. But even with hands on wheel, the CA DMV could still ask questions. It all depends on whether the CA DMV deems "feature complete" to be autonomous or not. With individual features like traffic light control and smart summon, Tesla was able to argue that the individual feature was not autonomous and thus get out from having to report anything. But with "feature complete", if the car is doing an entire commute with the driver never actively steering or touching any pedals, even with hands loosely on the wheel, the CA DMV might consider it close enough to autonomous and want some reporting, especially if it turns out that Elon or others on the team have been testing it a lot on public roads without reporting it.

 

[Mo City]

Perhaps. Of course, during sharp turns, they would have to hold the wheel loosely so as not to accidentally disengage AP. But even with hands on wheel, the CA DMV could still ask questions. It all depends on whether the CA DMV deems "feature complete" to be autonomous or not. With individual features like traffic light control and smart summon, Tesla was able to argue that the individual feature was not autonomous and thus get out from having to report anything. But with "feature complete", if the car is doing an entire commute with the driver never actively steering or touching any pedals, even with hands loosely on the wheel, the CA DMV might consider it close enough to autonomous and want some reporting, especially if it turns out that Elon or others on the team have been testing it a lot on public roads without reporting it.

So this means when "feature complete" FSD is released, Tesla will begin reporting the miles to CA?

 

[diplomat33]

So this means when "feature complete" FSD is released, Tesla will begin reporting the miles to CA?

I don't know. It is possible that Tesla will still try to claim it is not autonomous because of the AP nags. But my guess is that they might have to, yes.

 

[powertoold]

There's no reason to doubt what Elon is saying regarding his alpha car. We had an autonomy day where the press got test rides in "fsd" cars.

Honestly, Elon saying it's amazing is kinda underwhelming, considering his history of hyperbole lol

 

[alstoralset]

The other possibility is that Elon could get in trouble with the regulators from the CA DMV.

If Elon is true to his word, Tesla HQ will soon be immigrating to {Nevada, Texas}, leaving the CA regulators holding their, er, regulations.

 

[dckiwi]

Perhaps. Of course, during sharp turns, they would have to hold the wheel loosely so as not to accidentally disengage AP. But even with hands on wheel, the CA DMV could still ask questions. It all depends on whether the CA DMV deems "feature complete" to be autonomous or not. With individual features like traffic light control and smart summon, Tesla was able to argue that the individual feature was not autonomous and thus get out from having to report anything. But with "feature complete", if the car is doing an entire commute with the driver never actively steering or touching any pedals, even with hands loosely on the wheel, the CA DMV might consider it close enough to autonomous and want some reporting, especially if it turns out that Elon or others on the team have been testing it a lot on public roads without reporting it.

Why is it that Tesla doesn't want to report these miles to the DMV anyway?

 

[diplomat33]

Why is it that Tesla doesn't want to report these miles to the DMV anyway?

Cynical answer: I think their disengagement rate is really bad and they don't want the bad PR. I mean, if Tesla were actually close to L5 and their FSD was so great, why wouldn't they report it? It would be great PR.

But if Tesla's city driving disengagement rate is really like 20 miles per disengagement, compared to Waymo or Cruise's rate which is around 10,000 miles per disengagement, Tesla would look really bad.

Also, the report has to give the reason for every single disengagement too, not just the total number of disengagements. So Tesla would have to give the reason for every single disengagement which would also reveal the true state of their FSD software. Tesla does not want people to know what kinds of problems their FSD is still dealing with. It would show that Tesla is still doing perception and does not have "feature complete" yet. It would bust Elon's PR that Tesla is close to L5 and will soon have robotaxis.

 

[dckiwi]

Cynical answer: I think their disengagement rate is really bad and they don't want the bad PR. I mean, if Tesla were actually close to L5 and their FSD was so great, why wouldn't they report it? It would be great PR.

But if Tesla's city driving disengagement rate is really like 20 miles per disengagement, compared to Waymo or Cruise's rate which is around 10,000 miles per disengagement, Tesla would look really bad.

Also, the report has to give the reason for every single disengagement too, not just the total number of disengagements. So Tesla would have to give the reason for every single disengagement which would also reveal the true state of their FSD software. Tesla does not want people to know what kinds of problems their FSD is still dealing with. It would show that Tesla is still doing perception and does not have "feature complete" yet. It would bust Elon's PR that Tesla is close to L5 and will soon have robotaxis.

You might be right. But if this explanation is correct, they're in denial. After five years of stalling, no one actually thinks L5 is around the corner. But that's ok! I'd love to see the progress they're making. It's all amazing to be honest.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I feel like he's been more restrained especially with immediate goals.

So I'm not surprised at the lack of leaks either purposely by himself or outside.

I'm expecting only incremental additional functionality combined with more extensive under the hood improvements Things that are inline with what they've been working on,

 

[Bitdepth]

There's no reason to doubt what Elon is saying regarding his alpha car. We had an autonomy day where the press got test rides in "fsd" cars.

Honestly, Elon saying it's amazing is kinda underwhelming, considering his history of hyperbole lol

There was no FSD test rides. They are legally obligated to report any autonomous miles driven. They did a hands off test run which was the promo footage they released and reported only those mileage. Tesla considers those test rides as L2 system which as @diplomat33 states could be tesla's loophole out of reporting any autonomous mileage.

 

[powertoold]

There was no FSD test rides. They are legally obligated to report any autonomous miles driven

Tomato tomato, the press got fsd demo drives. Many of the demo drives had one or more interventions. Some had none.

SAE definitions suck. They aren't good at gauging progress.

 

[Bitdepth]

Tomato tomato, the press got fsd demo drives. Many of the demo drives had one or more interventions. Some had none.

SAE definitions suck. They aren't good at gauging progress.

Yea no, we are not playing this stupid game. Tesla says their test rides were L2 to a legal entity to whom they are beholding to not legally lie to. If they declare their intent as L3 then it is L3. As it stands they state in no uncertain terms that their autonomy day demo was L3 and I'm obliged to accept that because that was the intent of the video. I cannot unilaterally say that demo was L5. Likewise they stated that the test rides given were level 2 and i cannot say it was level 3, 4 or 5 just because I feel like it.

SAE levels does not suck. It is a mechanism used to acquire intent and responsibility. It answers 2 very important question.

1. What is the capability of the autonomous system
2. Who is responsible for driving and when.

If you cannot answer those questions clearly then you have no business operating an autonomous vehicle.

 

[Mo City]

Cynical answer: I think their disengagement rate is really bad and they don't want the bad PR. I mean, if Tesla were actually close to L5 and their FSD was so great, why wouldn't they report it? It would be great PR.

But if Tesla's city driving disengagement rate is really like 20 miles per disengagement, compared to Waymo or Cruise's rate which is around 10,000 miles per disengagement, Tesla would look really bad.

Also, the report has to give the reason for every single disengagement too, not just the total number of disengagements. So Tesla would have to give the reason for every single disengagement which would also reveal the true state of their FSD software. Tesla does not want people to know what kinds of problems their FSD is still dealing with. It would show that Tesla is still doing perception and does not have "feature complete" yet. It would bust Elon's PR that Tesla is close to L5 and will soon have robotaxis.

An optimist might say it's because Elon wants to keep their true progress under wraps for as long as possible and door pop the industry when "feature complete" FSD is released generally.

For the record, I am not an optimist but hope to be wrong.

 

[diplomat33]

Tomato tomato, the press got fsd demo drives. Many of the demo drives had one or more interventions. Some had none.

SAE definitions suck. They aren't good at gauging progress.

HA HA. No, the SAE definitions don't suck. They are the legit and official definitions that the entire industry uses. They are actually perfect for measuring FSD progress because they define what true FSD is. You just don't like the SAE definitions because they prove that Tesla is behind on FSD. You can't accept the truth. So you want to make up your own way of measuring FSD progress that has nothing to do with FSD so that Tesla can look like they are winning.

 

[powertoold]

SAE definitions are bad for gauging progress.

Once Tesla achieves and releases feature complete, they will still be level 2 cars.

 

[diplomat33]

SAE definitions are bad for gauging progress.

Once Tesla achieves and releases feature complete, they will still be level 2 cars.

You think Tesla is making all this great progress towards FSD so why don't the SAE levels reflect that, right? Why don't the SAE levels give Tesla credit for releasing a feature like "Traffic Light Control", right?

But the problem is not with the SAE levels. It's not the job of the SAE levels to make companies look good for whatever progress on specific features they might be making. The SAE levels simply define what autonomous driving is. If Tesla achieves autonomous driving, the SAE levels will reflect that. If Tesla does not achieve achieve autonomous driving, the SAE levels will reflect that as well. The burden is on Tesla to achieve autonomous driving. The burden is not on the SAE levels to conform to whatever Tesla is doing.

If Tesla is close to L5, there is a super easy way to prove it. All they have to do is report the disengagement data to the CA DMV like everybody else. Other companies are openly testing their FSD on public roads and reporting all the disengagement data that anybody with a browser can read any time. They are not hiding anything. The irony is that Tesla actually could deploy a very large fleet to test FSD in CA that would absolutely dwarf Waymo and Cruise combined. All Tesla would have to do is register the VINs and some additional info with the CA DMV and report all the disengagement data once a year. So why don't they? Why is Tesla being so secretive about their FSD and not reporting any autonomous miles, except for the tiny 12 miles from their one-off demo?

Tesla is the one playing games with the SAE levels because on one hand, they tell stakeholders that they are close to L5 but on the other hand, they tell regulators that they are only L2 and therefore not obligated to report anything. Tesla will dazzle investors on Autonomy Day with fancy presentations, talk of 1M robotaxis and a nice prepackaged FSD demo but won't actually report any autonomous driving to the regulators. Tesla is trying to have their cake and eat it too.

 

[diplomat33]

An optimist might say it's because Elon wants to keep their true progress under wraps for as long as possible and door pop the industry when "feature complete" FSD is released generally.

Yeah, that would certainly be the optimist's view. That's the classic "Tesla has a super secret separate software branch with super good FSD that they will suddenly release when they finish validating it". if it exists, we've yet to see it.

The fact is that we have no idea what this AP rewrite will be like. All we have are some teases from Elon. Sure, the optimist hopes that we get amazing hands-free "feature complete" but maybe we just get another incremental feature with driver supervision that disappoints. Let's not forget that Elon also said Smart Summon would be magical yet the actual release was far different. It is also entirely possible that Tesla misses their end of the year deadline again. After more testing, Tesla could realize that "feature complete" is not ready for prime time yet and they delay the release.