Why not buy a Mustang Mach-E?

[HotIce]

If you are a Tesla owner who has ever wondered why Tesla's factory finish and customer service aren't better, or why Elon thinks $10,000 is a reasonable price to add on FSD, you should be rooting very hard for the Mach-E. If you've ever wondered why there aren't more charging stations across the country, you should be rooting very hard for the Mach-E. The better this car sells, the better the car company Tesla will have to be. You won't ever have to go near one or buy a non-Tesla EV to benefit from its success.

Interesting points that you bring up. I'm going to bring up a counter argument. Tesla is a 10 year old company that at this point in time doesn't have the efficiencies of other auto makers at the moment. Quality control and fitment issues are being sorted out and improvements are being made as time goes by. 10K for FSD is a lot but also take into consideration that up until last year, Tesla was losing money on every car sold. They have to somehow make money for R&D. As time goes by and the company matures like Ford, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes, etc. I think long term, not only will we see FSD come down to a more palatable level again, but we'll see significant improvements in quality control, materials, fit and finish and charging stations. Tesla's charging infrastructure is significantly better than the competitions.

For a 10 year old company to be outselling manufacturers that have been in the auto industry for ages speaks volumes as to what this company is doing. Tesla has single handedly completely changed the course of the auto industry by fast tracking electric vehicles from other manufacturers. The Mach-E will do really well simply on the merit that SUV sales in the US are booming, it has a starting price close to $43,000 and it's a Ford, a company that people feel comfortable with and respect. Tesla is in my opinion four years ahead of the competition minimum. It's nice to see companies finally take electric seriously and bring some heat. Maybe this forces Tesla to clamp down on some of the erroneous issues.

 

[HotIce]

Note that Tesla cars' EPA rating is *inflated* as Tesla does its own testing (Adjustment Factor) trying to milk out additional mileages. See this article - The Adjustment Factor Tesla Uses to Get Its Big EPA Range Numbers.

To all of us Tesla Owners, I have yet to meet a person that got the actual rated range. I'm lucky if I get 80% of the rated range. So as far as range goes, I think the advantage goes to a non-Tesla car assuming similar range. O, don't forget about vampire drain.

Now that was only about the range, Tesla is still much more efficient than Mach E. I believe Mach E uses 37kwh for 100 miles while Model Y uses 27kwh per 100 miles driven. Even with the inflated number and vampire drain, Model Y is still better.

Basically with a full charge, expect similar range between Model Y and Mach E on the long range version, but that's with Mach E having a bigger battery.

Keep in mind that other manufacturers don't have the experience or the knowledge of batteries *yet*. At this point in time, Tesla's battery packs are more efficient. The end goal for everyone is solid state batteries, but what road everyone takes to get to that point is going to be interesting

Update: Also, keep in mind that Tesla will be producing their own batteries in house soon so they'll have complete control of the manufacturing process the entire way through. Once Giga Texas is built in the US, my assumption is we'll see things really start to come together in the US. With Giga Shanghai up already and Giga Berlin coming up next year, we'll see things a bit more streamlined.

 

[TMThree]

Tesla is a 10 year old company that at this point in time doesn't have the efficiencies of other auto makers at the moment. Quality control and fitment issues are being sorted out and improvements are being made as time goes by.

Tesla is not really addressing QC at all, which is why you still see vehicles with crooked tail lamps and body panels. It's hit or miss, my friend's 2018 3 has better fitment than my 2019, and we see the same on 2021 model Ys now.

10K for FSD is a lot but also take into consideration that up until last year, Tesla was losing money on every car sold.

This really isn't true. If it wasn't for selling energy credits to competitors, Tesla still wouldn't be profitable.

The nice thing about the stock market bump is they sold more shares at the inflated pricing, making the likelihood of bankruptcy vanish for a long time. That also means less ammo for the shorts to attack TSLA, so the price of the stock shouldn't go back to where it was last year at $190 (pre split).

For a 10 year old company to be outselling manufacturers that have been in the auto industry for ages speaks volumes as to what this company is doing.

Disagree. Competition was spitting out garbage and nonsense in the EV market. They didn't want to get into EVs, the unions protest the move (less parts means less workers needed), and the dealers hate it and don't want to sell them (no service means no income). This means if Tesla was racing the competition, the competition didn't know they were even in that race. Now they see they're behind in a market they should have worked on. Fortunately EVs are simple, and there isn't a lot into developing one. They're all buying motors and batteries off 3rd parties, so just make a shell and drop it in. It makes mfg simple, it makes less work to create and sell. Only issue is hitting the right price point for profit.

Right now if you're in NJ, you can get a Mustang mach-e with $7500 tax credit, $5000 state credit, and no sales tax. If I lived there, I'd look at it strongly over the Y. If Ford is making profit on it, then they're already ahead of Tesla since Tesla still sells at a loss.

In the next 1-2 years, charging issues should be fixed, and the market will have a lot more competition available.

Tesla has single handedly completely changed the course of the auto industry by fast tracking electric vehicles from other manufacturers.

Now we agree on something. Tesla forced the issue. The competition has to produce now.

 

[akballow]

Ford still looks ugly like every other electric car still. Why can they just make electric cars that look like ice cars...

 

[Tobeyslame]

Ford still looks ugly like every other electric car still. Why can they just make electric cars that look like ice cars...

Going back and forth as of a few days ago

I actually think the front end view of a mach e is nicer. Profile same. Back Tesla’s is nicer.

build out cost about 7500 cheaper (tax rebate) and I believe two years free charging (won’t always do it, so maybe 2k additional).

I heard it’s quieter, not as powerful, feels more luxurious, does the little things better, but also isn’t as advanced.

we don’t know what updates they will be able to provide. 88kw battery, but range isn’t as good-I don’t know enough to explain this except that they aren’t at Tesla level yet.
Will their ota updates be free?
I drove a Ford now and they try to charge for simple things like map updates.

 

[FredMertz]

Interesting points that you bring up. I'm going to bring up a counter argument. Tesla is a 10 year old company that at this point in time doesn't have the efficiencies of other auto makers at the moment. Quality control and fitment issues are being sorted out and improvements are being made as time goes by. 10K for FSD is a lot but also take into consideration that up until last year, Tesla was losing money on every car sold. They have to somehow make money for R&D. As time goes by and the company matures like Ford, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes, etc. I think long term, not only will we see FSD come down to a more palatable level again, but we'll see significant improvements in quality control, materials, fit and finish and charging stations. Tesla's charging infrastructure is significantly better than the competitions.

For a 10 year old company to be outselling manufacturers that have been in the auto industry for ages speaks volumes as to what this company is doing. Tesla has single handedly completely changed the course of the auto industry by fast tracking electric vehicles from other manufacturers. The Mach-E will do really well simply on the merit that SUV sales in the US are booming, it has a starting price close to $43,000 and it's a Ford, a company that people feel comfortable with and respect. Tesla is in my opinion four years ahead of the competition minimum. It's nice to see companies finally take electric seriously and bring some heat. Maybe this forces Tesla to clamp down on some of the erroneous issues.

I feel like we are in agreement. The better the competition, the more attention Tesla will have to pay to things that they haven't been held accountable for. I don't think anyone would argue that the fitment issues have cost them any sales, but if that were to be the case, it would improve.

 

[patmurphey]

Tesla is not really addressing QC at all, which is why you still see vehicles with crooked tail lamps and body panels. It's hit or miss, my friend's 2018 3 has better fitment than my 2019, and we see the same on 2021 model Ys now...

...This really isn't true. If it wasn't for selling energy credits to competitors, Tesla still wouldn't be profitable...

Right now if you're in NJ, you can get a Mustang mach-e with $7500 tax credit, $5000 state credit, and no sales tax. If I lived there, I'd look at it strongly over the Y. If Ford is making profit on it, then they're already ahead of Tesla since Tesla still sells at a loss.,.

First Tesla is addressing quality control. The latest Model Ys are much better. Manufacturing changes in Shanghai have made Teslas number one in EV quality in China. Berlin and Texas factories are including those changes and more with changes to be phased in in Freemont.

Energy credits are more than offset by investment spending an a one time implementation of Musk's compensation package. Tesla is generating cash.

In NJ the Mach E configuration that matches the base Model Y, Premium AWD long range, is only a bit more than than $2,000 cheaper after credits. The Mach E can't even have a paint upgrade and still qualify for the NJ rebate. Tesla Models 3 and Y have a 23% margin absent the energy credits in the 3rd Q report, not exactly losing money on those cars. Recently, the cost to produce Model Ys has fallen below the Model 3.

 

[TMThree]

First Tesla is addressing quality control. The latest Model Ys are much better. Manufacturing changes in Shanghai have made Teslas number one in EV quality in China. Berlin and Texas factories are including those changes and more with changes to be phased in in Freemont.

OK, lets say its the best built car in China. Tesla still makes a tiny fraction of vehicles while having a larger market cap than all their competitors combined.

 

[hlin07]

NJ EV 5K rebate is no longer available so it's much in line with most of the country now. Still, the 7500 federal tax credit is going to be attractive for certain segment of the buyers that don't need AWD or 300mile + range. If someone can live with 230 mile and without all the bell and whitsle, mach E is close to 35k, that's a big deal. While I still prefer Tesla at a similar price range, but if the difference is over 5k, it's hard to justify the difference.
So hopefully Elon will do a 69420 magic trick on model Y, not saying he will but it sure will make my decision to buy a model Y a lot easier.

 

[patnshan]

Anybody who’s owned a Ford before knows why you shouldn’t. ‍

 

[angus[Y]oung]

Bringing it out without competitive range, performance, FSD, efficiency, battery technology, OTA updates or on the highway charging options seems incomprehensible. [...] Biggest competitive advantage they seem to have in the market is the availability of the tax credit, and that could be changed with the new administration.

@Uncle Paul you're missing an intangible, which is the Ford and Mustang brand names. There is a subset of the population that knows very little about electric vehicles in general, and Tesla specifically, and due to confirmation bias may have a very tough time getting past that. Seeing a traditional automaker put in a serious effort on an EV may help to sway them. Just as there are people that hate on Ford (see next part of my reply), there are die-hard Ford fans. Using the Mustang name may be divisive but it gets attention. Mach-e may not appeal to all, but I think it opens some doors to thinking about an EV being viable where previously they were shut, and it sets the stage for next year's F150E. I think there are people that never would have seriously considered a Tesla that may well explore the Mach-E or F150E just because it's from Ford.

Anybody who’s owned a Ford before knows why you shouldn’t. ‍

@Patatman every brand has highs and lows. I have owned several Fords and in fact still drive one until we get our MY sometime next spring. They've actually been solid for me personally, and have delivered very good value for what I paid.

 

[patmurphey]

OK, lets say its the best built car in China. Tesla still makes a tiny fraction of vehicles while having a larger market cap than all their competitors combined.

There is a lot more to Tesla's market cap than the current level of production of cars. They won't be a tiny fraction for long and cars are only one factor in their projected growth.

BTW, the NJ rebate is still law. I has been suspended until a review next summer due to State funding shortage.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Note that Tesla cars' EPA rating is *inflated* as Tesla does its own testing (Adjustment Factor) trying to milk out additional mileages. See this article - The Adjustment Factor Tesla Uses to Get Its Big EPA Range Numbers.

This is true. Tesla uses a Scalar of 0.747 to scale its raw results from the two UDDS and FTP cycles, while Ford uses the traditional 0.7 number. The Model Y uses this 0.747 value, and the 2021 Model 3 a very similar value, and it comes from the heat pump, which gives better performance on the SC03 and FTP 20F cycles. That allows them (per EPA rules) to use that calculated scalar, which folds in those other "5-cycle" results.

EPA range = (0.55*UDDS+0.45*FTP)*Scalar

But please note that the Mach-E does NOT have a heat pump (at least from the first link in my quick Google search). So it will do worse in cold weather than Model Y and 2021 Model 3.

Note that before 2020 Model Y, Model 3 used about 0.703 for the scalar - because it did not have a heat pump. So relatively little inflation due to this factor in prior years.

Now that was only about the range, Tesla is still much more efficient than Mach E. I believe Mach E uses 37kwh for 100 miles while Model Y uses 27kwh per 100 miles driven. Even with the inflated number and vampire drain, Model Y is still better.

That's true, but the information on the exact RAW (AC) efficiency is published by the EPA.

Download Fuel Economy Data

Here's the comparison. You can see that in raw (AC) efficiency, the Model Y is about 20% more efficient than the Mach-E AWD. Not the 27% you quoted. This 7% difference is due to the scalar difference of 7%.

If you want to dive into the exact DC efficiency differences (which are more relevant for range, but to be honest AC-DC conversion losses (which are about 12% for Tesla) are likely about the same for all manufacturers so don't really need to go there), you have to go to the raw EPA docs: Basic Search | Document Index System | US EPA

so as far as range goes, I think the advantage goes to a non-Tesla car assuming similar range.

This is where I disagree with you. We'll use just Highway numbers here.

After removing the effect of the scalar (scale EPA highway 306 mile Model Y result by 0.7/0.747), the Model Y in optimal no heat pump conditions, would get 287 miles, which is still more than the Mach-E AWD highway result, at 255 miles, before they voluntarily lowered it to 250 miles. (All these numbers are in the spreadsheet linked in the first link.)

So I think the range advantage likely goes to Model Y here. In California range will be close for the two vehicles, and at freeway speeds the difference will be smaller in absolute terms than the 255/287 results from above, because the aero losses will dominate even more than they do in the EPA testing...though the Mach-E seems to do slightly poorly on aero...so absolute range gap might not tighten much (and %-wise it might even be a larger difference).

I'd expect about 230-240 miles max at 80mph for 100% to 0% for Model Y, in optimal conditions. And about 210-215 miles for Mach-E at 80mph in optimal conditions.

But in colder climates, the range advantage I think will very clearly go to Model Y with the heat pump.

And as covered, the efficiency advantage will of course be huge (which is important for charging time, assuming you could even get a 150kW charge for the Mach-E - and 250kW charging is not available). That affects charge time, a lot!

O, don't forget about vampire drain.

This affects overall wall-to-wheels efficiency, and potentially by a large amount depending on how much you drive, but does not affect your driving range.

 

[origingalatic]

Tesla was losing money on every car sold. They have to somehow make money for R&D.

For a 10 year old company to be outselling manufacturers that have been in the auto industry for ages speaks volumes as to what this company is doing. Tesla has single handedly completely changed the course of the auto industry by fast tracking electric vehicles from other manufacturers. The Mach-E will do really well simply on the merit that SUV sales in the US are booming, it has a starting price close to $43,000 and it's a Ford, a company that people feel comfortable with and respect. Tesla is in my opinion four years ahead of the competition minimum. It's nice to see companies finally take electric seriously and bring some heat. Maybe this forces Tesla to clamp down on some of the erroneous issues.

Tesla is only losing money for ever car sold because of financial reporting, not because of manufacturing. They just invest and over invest in expansion, new tools (like giga press) and commitment for battery productions.

Tesla is NOT outselling other manufacturers. It sells less than 1 million cars per year. That’s less than 10% of total cars sold by VW. It outsells EV than other manufactures but that’s a fair statement as for the longest time, EV is just a hobby for other manufacturers if at all.

Yes, I agree Tesla is years ahead when it comes to EV tech but also years behind when it comes to build quality. The latter is easier problem to solve and has been solved so that’s why investors don’t care much for the problems.

Would other manufacturers catch up? You bet! But they won’t be doing it alone or by themselves. Tech companies such as Luminar, MobileEye, Comma.ai will augment the AP part, QuantumScape for batteries, Blink for EV Charging networks are examples of accelerators for the traditional auto manufacturers.

Competitions are good for consumers. Hopefully we won’t see 10k for beta features any longer

 

[patmurphey]

...Would other manufacturers catch up? You bet! But they won’t be doing it alone or by themselves. Tech companies such as Luminar, MobileEye, Comma.ai will augment the AP part, QuantumScape for batteries, Blink for EV Charging networks are examples of accelerators for the traditional auto manufacturers.

Competitions are good for consumers. Hopefully we won’t see 10k for beta features any longer

Tesla's vertical integration, doing those jobs in house, remove those companies margins from the cost equation.

 

[frankvb]

Tesla's vertical integration, doing those jobs in house, remove those companies margins from the cost equation.

There's arguments for keeping things in-house or not, there is a reason for outsourcing. Lots of variables going into such a decision.

My feeling is that Tesla is having too much of the 'not invented here' syndrome. Tesla's (or Elon's) way is often great but not in all cases. As an example the blind spot monitoring and automatic wiper control, which works way better/more logical on just about every other vehicle out there.

 

[laservet]

VW, arguably the second best vertically integrated car company, is still far behind, suffering production slowdowns now due to ic chip scarcity. Not really scarce, just allocated to consumer electronics when car sales dropped and not available in needed quantities now that production is ramping up for the id.3, 4.

 

[Cleo-n-Company]

So I can already hear the laughter - but we have a Model S and a Leaf in the family - and there is much more "love" for the Leaf right now from every driver in the household. Build, finish and fit on the Leaf is so superior you would have thought it came from a Maybach factory. (And the Model S came from an erector set.)

And sue me... shoot me... whatever... the traditional speedometer and control layout in the Leaf is a relief compared to a Model 3, the model that was cast aside for the Leaf purchase.

Our Model S has become so problematic and loosey-goosey that we are just dying for some of the other near-term competitors to hit the showrooms.

The Model S may have been a Grand Slam at introduction - it was for me on my first drive.

But even if the new competitors turn out to be doubles and triples (you get the point), but are built well and are sold/serviced with a smile, these new EV's will officially clean Elon's clock.

Does Musk need the new competition just to get himself motivated ?

If so - I expect his behind will be burning in the next 12 to 24 months.

 

[rxlawdude]

So I can already hear the laughter - but we have a Model S and a Leaf in the family - and there is much more "love" for the Leaf right now from every driver in the household. Build, finish and fit on the Leaf is so superior you would have thought it came from a Maybach factory. (And the Model S came from an erector set.)

And sue me... shoot me... whatever... the traditional speedometer and control layout in the Leaf is a relief compared to a Model 3, the model that was cast aside for the Leaf purchase.

Our Model S has become so problematic and loosey-goosey that we are just dying for some of the other near-term competitors to hit the showrooms.

The Model S may have been a Grand Slam at introduction - it was for me on my first drive.

But even if the new competitors turn out to be doubles and triples (you get the point), but are built well and are sold/serviced with a smile, these new EV's will officially clean Elon's clock.

Does Musk need the new competition just to get himself motivated ?

If so - I expect his behind will be burning in the next 12 to 24 months.

Wow, 160+ Tesla bashing messages in three months. I sure wish I had read your posts before buying a Tesla, as I would have definitely bought a Leaf rather than a MS, MY and M3, none of which have ever been "loosey-goosey."

 

[Dennisis]

Wow, 160+ Tesla bashing messages in three months. I sure wish I had read your posts before buying a Tesla, as I would have definitely bought a Leaf rather than a MS, MY and M3, none of which have ever been "loosey-goosey."

Shocking