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Why Tesla Could become the next Standard Oil

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That is unbelievable for the televised sunrise. That is due to smog from concentrated factory cities whereby not only electric generation (coal) but factory output (goods) are built by millions of city workers for the rest of the world who buys from them. We used to have smog in the US too - then we moved millions of jobs to China. Now they have smog and not a whole lot of EPA to oversee regulation of cutting it back. So goes the world. I guess the next growth area will be Indonesia and Vietnam where labor is perhaps even cheaper.

Hopefully we can move more factory jobs back to the USA so we can help cut the Chinese smog down a bit.
 
Elon Musk does not believe in a future of lowered expectations or lowered standard of living. I don't either.

I don't believe we have to go back to Medieval villages in order to sustain the current 7 billion people on earth.

We need better solutions, better organization, and better technology that can be achieved by the steady work of humanity that does not require the intervention of a Superior Being.
 
That is unbelievable for the televised sunrise. That is due to smog from concentrated factory cities whereby not only electric generation (coal) but factory output (goods) are built by millions of city workers for the rest of the world who buys from them. We used to have smog in the US too - then...
Then the US government told the car companies that they had to curb emissions, the car companies complained bitterly saying it couldn't be done and it would add to much cost to cars and people wouldn't pay it... but guess what? It was done because the environmental movement put political pressure on decision makers and businesses realized they had to get on board and the added cost was modest and in the US we have much cleaner air than we did in the 60's when I was a kid in Los Angeles. And the government also enforced rules to reduce emissions from factories and power plants and by and large that was also a success in the US, and in Europe as well.

So it can be done and it will be done in China as well because the Chinese are becoming increasingly aware of the damage they are doing to their environment and eventually the people will stop tolerating it and force changes to take place. But a lot of people are going to suffer terrible illnesses before things improve in China.
 
A few points to bear hugely in mind here.

Standard Oil took 20 years - 1870 to 1890 - to control 88 percent of the US refined products. By the end of 1911 the Trust was gone, split up into almost three dozen companies. As an aside, it was the trust-busting that enriched JDRockefeller to become the world's wealthiest individual.

The lesson? Insofar as Mr Musk maintains the course he outlines in his Secret Master Plan, he, shareholders, TMInc and the world should continue to reap gains. On the other hand, were TMInc to go the path of a single-phase or multi-phase monopoly, it eventually would be brought to the chopping block. A multi-phase monopoly might be one where TMInc maintained overweening control of the production of vehicles, the dissemination of vehicles, the battery technology, the refueling of vehicles and the like. What "overweening" means might differ in the US, China, EU, Inner Slobbovistan, and so on.

Caveat sator.
US antitrust law prevents using unfair methods to acquire a monopoly, but does not prohibit the exercise of monopoly power if legally gained (through, e.g., patents or superior products). Standard Oil engaged in a wide range of dirty tactics to squeeze competitors out, but Apple's iTunes store is perfectly legit, even though it commands a dominant market share. Tesla will be fine as long as it just keeps selling a better product protected by robust IP.
 
We need better solutions, better organization, and better technology that can be achieved by the steady work of humanity that does not require the intervention of a Superior Being.
The way I see it, God has given us the intellect and resources to accomplish those good things, in a proactive manner. Thank God for people like Elon Musk. :)
 
The OP was an opus but it was more of a waking dream. It is not a binary decision. It is not Tesla versus the world. It is Tesla "within" the rest of the world. The most pro-Tesla folks see a world that does not include other automakers.

About 10 different auto companies are involved in EV design and rollout. Carlos Ghosn at Nissan is pro-EV and is the leading EV salesman in the world. He also is aspiring to do the millions of sales that Tesla wants to. GM is kind of "krapping" the bed lately and not really moving forward until their battery labs certify the next-gen battery for the next-gen cars (due 2016 at a minimum). They already have an electric Cruze running in Korea but don't bring it to the USA to due platforming. Ford is moving forward slowly but they have huge capability. Mitsubishi is doing some nice things with the PiHV outlander. Volvo is stepping up with CrossBlue.

Let's all get along and understand that when the world electrifies - all the automakers will be making electric cars. Cost of scale, and channels will rule the prices customers pay for them. All incentives will be gone because now incentives will need to go to electric companies to beef up delivery mechanisms, establish fast-charging sites and grow the infrastructure. In fact, I think money is better spent on beefing up electric companies to support EVs (more deployment of inexpensive charging sites, more locations on major and minor routes, etc.) Sure we want people to buy them. But we need to make sure all of our governments, electric companies and consumers want to support it.

Tesla will grow but I doubt they become "Le géant mondial". They have a head start but there are some massive firms out there also working on their solutions. They will all get along as long as the battery tech can be brought down in price. The current sales model supports most of the heavy-incentivized countries. It needs to make sub $20K cars for the mass populations of the world (BRIC) and Asia. The USA is only 4% of world population and the growth economies are not here. What I think we have here is viewing Tesla as "the replacement auto technology all other auto companies will fail because-of". That is not going to happen.

One stumbling factor. The time it takes to make one battery (ie. the machines needed to fill, wrap, complete, charge, package and ship) is far larger in time than to refine some oil into gasoline. The time needs to be exploded out into a number of cells needed per car, per day, per year, etc. The Gigafactory idea of 200 of them are needed to replace all cars is a 50-100 year thought. You then need 10-20 battery recycling gigaplants to bring in those used cells and recycle them. If such recycling happens within the Gigafactory - what is the ongoing cost of recycling one cell added onto the production costs of one cell? Is it sustainable? Has a full lifecycle review of this been done in its entirety?

Many EV enthusiasts read Science Fiction. I actually don't but have a knack for gardening. It will be far better to look at ways to reduce our needs to drive (telecommuting, less "bread-and-circuses", less shopping trips) than to try to find ways to just transition the cars over. More mass transit, more busing services (electric) and more getting-along with strangers will do far more good for humanity than everyone trying to exist in their own electric bubbles.

Let's move to EVs but let's also support all EV manufacturers. It is far more important to grow the full spectrum of the EV marketplace (the whole) than to be staring at how Tesla can rule the world so our stock can go up (the me). Autos are not free-software (Google) and don't have massive ad-revenue incomes to offset costs. Autos are not Apple (priced a few hundred higher than others). They are hugely substantial purchases akin to buying a house. They [EVs] should not be treated as if everyone will just buy them because of some "tech" reason.

@Bonaire, I did not name this thread well. As to your point yesterday about it not being Tesla vs. the world, I thoroughly agree. I tried to clarify this in a post before going to bed Friday night, but I understand I can't expect anyone to have the time to ready every post.

Below is what I wrote in the earlier post... I think you'll see my scenario is not a vision of Tesla doing it all alone (and maximizing my investment) but rather a change in strategy I think Tesla may need to more expediently reach Elon's goal of inducing the rest of the auto industry to pursue EVs in a joint effort of many parties. (To be fair, the original post in the thread was taken from a comment written on Seeking Alpha. I did definitely did point out that if Tesla shifted strategies, it would make Tesla investors more money. I also wrote that this was speculative and not a reason to invest in the stock. I can definitely see that without the second post in this thread you could reasonably infer from the first that I was suggesting a scenario of Tesla becoming a dominant player with a market virtually to themselves)

earlier post:

"I wanted to reply to some posts here, but I think I need to start with some context. I probably named this thread poorly... I mention Standard Oil more to get at the enormity of the scale involved if we go from Oil/ICE to grid/EVs than as a metaphor for Tesla's business future.


The staggering scale I'm referring to is not simply the one giga factory to enable Gen III, but of the new infrastructure (at this point battery factories) to shift all vehicles from oil/ice to grid/EVs. The scale is so large, and the rest of the auto industry has such large incentives not to make this shift, that I think Elon may feel compelled to aim at very deep-pocketed partners (hence the whole Google or Larry Page tie in) to get things going at a scale that will overcome the auto industries resistance. So it's not so much a vision of Tesla becoming the largest corporation on the planet, but that incentivizing the automakers to go forward may take a much larger kick start from Tesla than Elon originally thought, and that partners with tens of billions of dollars could dramatically reduce the timeframe of executing the kick start."

***********

One other point, I think Nissan is the only automaker really serious about making a run at pure EVs at this point. I look at all the existing cars and all slated cars and I see either plug-in Hybrids and EVs with 100 mile ranges or less. These are good developments... but I think it falls short of what Elon had hoped to accomplish. I found his remarks at Teslive 6 months ago to indicate he is both surprised and disappointed at the response of other automakers. For the two reasons in the original post I think there are very large disincentives for the other automakers and their executive teams to pursue pure EVs. This is a debatable point... but I basically think that outside of Nissan, the rest of the industry is saying "good for Tesla, but we are punting for now." So that's my main point here, Elon and Tesla may be deciding they need cash rich partners to be the kind of catalyst he wants Tesla to be for the industry. I can't see Tesla on it's own (without cash rich partner) stoking the industry to produce 50% of its new vehicles as EVs circa 2027 as Elon had previously said in a few interviews (fwiw, even with a Google size partner, I think that's a very nice aspiration, but not at all likely to happen by 2027... hope Elon proves me wrong on this).
 
I mention Standard Oil more to get at the enormity of the scale involved

This is the second time in this thread, so it's time for...

The Grammar Police:

enormity: an outrageous, improper, vicious, or immoral act

While "enormity" can be used to indicate scale, it always carries a negative connotation. In this case, "vast scale" would be more concise and accurate.

[we now return to our regularly scheduled program...]
 
This is the second time in this thread, so it's time for...
Enormity is perfectly fine for usage in this case:

Enormity, some people insist, is improperly used to denote large size. They insist on enormousness for this meaning, and would limit enormity to the meaning “great wickedness.” Those who urge such a limitation may not recognize the subtlety with which enormity is actually used. It regularly denotes a considerable departure from the expected or normal...

The Alternative Grammar Police
 
@Itsnotabout, very good extension of football metaphor. As far as dollar and cents shareholder value, I wouldn't say the bulk of them are making a mistake. That's why I think Elon may have gone for "bigger boat" load of money in his quest to inspire them to go after EVs more. If I weren't watching game as I type I'd write something more substantive .
 
ref Robert.Boston -

Am I veering too far off-topic, Rob't, to request you explain away in such a fashion what happened to Ma Bell, then????? Far closer to our present age, and I think you must agree D.C. was simply of the mind that a nationwide monopoly must for whatever reason be, in of itself, "bad".


....and then look what happened....
 
ref Robert.Boston -

Am I veering too far off-topic, Rob't, to request you explain away in such a fashion what happened to Ma Bell, then????? Far closer to our present age, and I think you must agree D.C. was simply of the mind that a nationwide monopoly must for whatever reason be, in of itself, "bad".


....and then look what happened....
The Ma Bell split came as part of a settlement agreement in United States v AT&T. The US DOJ brought this case on referral from the senior staff at the FCC, who believed that AT&T was cross-subsidizing its network division with profits from its Western Electric equipment branch. There were also claims that AT&T was abusing its control of the network to exclude potential competitors (in, say, consumer equipment and switching gear), under the "essential facilities" rubric. As you probably know, the "AT&T" of today is actually one of the Baby Bells that has grown larger than its parent.

Tesla, fortunately, has no such legal concerns ... yet. It might well be, however, that the SuperCharger network gets to be so pervasive that Tesla would be obligated to provide competitors with access -- at a fair price. It would make a lot of sense for Tesla to get ahead of this and work with other OEMs to offer SC access at $2000/car (precisely what Tesla charges its own customers). If that offer is on the table, then no competitor could claim that they were being unreasonably excluded from the SC network. Moreover, it would be a huge win for Tesla, both financially and strategically.
 
You're welcome to go debate that with merriam-webster :), the quote on usage is from their web page.

Sorry, that was actually just an excuse to use "begging the question". :cool:

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Tesla, fortunately, has no such legal concerns ... yet. It might well be, however, that the SuperCharger network gets to be so pervasive that Tesla would be obligated to provide competitors with access -- at a fair price. It would make a lot of sense for Tesla to get ahead of this and work with other OEMs to offer SC access at $2000/car (precisely what Tesla charges its own customers). If that offer is on the table, then no competitor could claim that they were being unreasonably excluded from the SC network. Moreover, it would be a huge win for Tesla, both financially and strategically.

Well, assuming it costs no more than $250k per Supercharger, then Tesla could tell the government "Why don't you build one? It only costs $100M. What's the current DoD budget?" ;)