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Why Tesla Will Fail

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by neroden, Jan 29, 2018.

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  1. farzyness

    farzyness Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?

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    How did you arrive to the orders being less than ideal?
     
  2. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    The MR offer. Which , at least as of yesterday, could still be ordered for delivery this year. So we know for sure that the North American order queue is not deep.

    This also probably means that a large percentage of North American reservation holders have not ordered. Which I think is not a problem long term. Many people do want car immediately when the manufacturer decides they will sell them a car.

    Also, getting to Europe somewhat earlier than expected is probably a good competitive move. Tesla arrives in Europe with a mid priced car just as Audi starts delivering their high priced car.
     
  3. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Tesla still needs a strong 2018Q4, but is in a much stronger position after 2018Q3. There are 2 things that should give pause before making too many assumptions on order depth:
    1) Tesla eliminated the LR RWD
    2) The tax credit will drop to $3,750 at the end of the 2018Q4.

    The window is closing on $3,750 of upsell opportunity. 20%/120% x $3,750 is $625. 4.5k/wk x 13wk x $750 = $36.56M. So, at 20% margin there's up to $36.56M on the table in upsells. Given the improved cash position and lack of competition, Tesla could be playing around with sales order to get upsells to more cost-sensitive buyers to maximize the additional income. And, for the MR sales, it might also give opportunity for other margin through use of the freed-up cell capacity.

    Going early to Europe isn't so much a competitive question to me, it's a question of margin. They can keep the cash rolling in on high-spec Model 3, as they've done with other models through Q3 in Europe, Asia-Pacific and RHD countries. That gives them time to introduce and build up margin on the SR.
     
  4. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Supporting Member

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    #284 Boomer19, Nov 1, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2018

    similar to my company...
    it’s ok to be wrong, it’s ok to ask questions.

    but when asked for something by upper mgmt, you’d better not bullshit your answers, bc that’s immediate loss of any credibility, pretty much for the rest of your tenure. better off admitting you’re not prepared to answer and have to do more research.
     
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  5. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    Here is the supporting data... Tesla Model 3 Sales Down In October 2018: Still #1 In U.S. For Month

    In both May and June, Tesla Model 3 sales exceeded 6,000 units, but that’s tiny compared to the explosion of sales in July, which amounted to 14,250. Think that’s a big number? Well…it was. That is, until August when it shot up to 17,800. Then, September came as sales hit 22,250 units.

    Our initial estimates, which will be updated once again later today, peg Tesla Model 3 sales at 17,750 in the U.S. in October (*this figure doesn’t include Canada). That is still the third-best sales result ever for the Model 3 in the U.S. and with this being the first month of the new quarter, we didn’t expect a new record.
     
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  6. Cloxxki

    Cloxxki Member

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    #286 Cloxxki, Nov 2, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
    They're selling 150,000+ before the end of the year, most of them domestically, a few in Canada. More than 100,000, rather 130,000 are Long Range. With any car, that's a lot a highly optioned ones from the maybe 200-250,000 reservations in the region. Also, it's still new and unproven in terms of reliability, etc. Plenty of order will materialize over time and as the entry price point drops.
    It's simply time to start exporting (also top down), not reach the point of domestic saturation too quickly or be forced to start making too many on the true base car just to keep production topped off.

    Of course exports delay the sale and eat up the credit line with suppliers. My little theory is that it makes sense to do exports only in the first half or 2/3 or a quarter, so the sales don't cross over to the next quarter impacting reported deliveries and cashflow. So they may be squeezing as many domestic sales from Q4 now, to then do a good burst in Jan and Feb to export markets, sales which will still end up in the books. All highly optioned cars. Then open March deliveries for US/CA to a lower price point to get high production and deliveries numbers. Repeat in Q2, although more blended by then to not strain the supply chain as much with peak flows.

    I do wonder what Tesla will do with all those people now doing deliveries only. Will they just lose their jobs or will Tesla start exports only for increased production, not substituting sales, to keep the domestic market as high pressured as it's been? Europe will of course need time to adjust to the influx of Model 3, especially if it's 4,000 a week, which is not impossible in terms of demand.
     
  7. tinm

    tinm 2013 S85 Owner

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    Was listening to Harry Shearer's weekly Le Show radio program/podcast that aired yesterday and was struck by something he said in passing while interviewing Bruce Schneier, the internet security guru. Shearer brought up the fact that he bought an electric car (which on previous episodes he's said is a Tesla Model S). But this time he said, "When I first bought my electric car, and I'm not going to mention the name because their customer service is so bad they don't deserve a name-check..."

    I wonder what happened. No, I don't. I can too easily imagine all sorts of screwups involving failures to communicate in a timely manner and failures to manage customer expectations.
     
  8. tinm

    tinm 2013 S85 Owner

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  9. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    The good news here is that many buyers are likely waiting for Tesla to get its house in order before ordering a car. I don't see that these complaints affecting fundamental long term demand much.

    Tesla's order queue is clearly surprisingly sparse. Enough horror stories have been posted and published to probably give a lot of prospective customer pause.
     
  10. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    The appalling internal communications, leading to broken customer service, is Tesla's biggest self-inflicted wound. It would have killed the company already if not for the fact that nobody else is producing decent electric cars in anywhere near the volume.
     
  11. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Active Member

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    Very few industrial companies, growing at the rate of Tesla, will have customer support keeping up.

    Seems like the agressive ramp up of production is stressing all the support services.

    Was the same thing when military tanks would do a quick advance. They usually had to stop for a while to let the supporting supplies catch up.

    Outrunning your supply lines is a constant issue when you are going Hell bent for leather.

    In other words, it is a natural occurance when a company is fast growing.
     
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  12. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Well, let's hope they catch up on it, because they really really need to.

    I'm very long TSLA. But I want them to really actually handle this stuff well, because it's the difference between Tesla doing well for five to ten years and Tesla booming for fifty years.
     
  13. tinm

    tinm 2013 S85 Owner

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    I'm curious: anyone here had Tesla service recently? Gotten the routine email from Tesla a few days later, asking if you would please take the brief survey so they know how well they did with your service?

    Here's my question: has Tesla done what I think they've done, by relabeling the five stars for the rating? I could swear that it used to be 1 equaled something like "Very Unsatisfactory" or "Poor" and 5 was "Excellent" or something along those lines. Because what I just saw last week when I got a survey for recent service was that the 5 now means "Satisfactory."

    Don't get me wrong, my service experiences are generally excellent and I love the mobile service tech who services customers all over the state of New Mexico--he is a superstar who consistently goes above and beyond the call of duty and consistently exceeds expectations.

    I just find it interesting that Tesla has apparently quietly re-labeled the star ratings, seemingly in an effort to maximize likelihood of receiving 5 stars every time. It would be like a restaurant giving you a survey after your meal, with a 1 to 5 star rating where 1 is "awful" and 5 is "ok". It just strikes me as odd.
     
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  14. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    If they're genuinely trying to fix problems, it makes sense to have granularity on that, rather than on the how good the good people are.
     
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  15. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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  16. brian45011

    brian45011 Active Member

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  17. jeffro01

    jeffro01 Active Member

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    I must say that when this thread started I thought the OP was nuts... Not anymore... The company is so bad, so dishonest, and so completely disorganized that if any other manufacturer can produce a car, or cars, on par with Tesla then it's absolutely game over for Tesla and quickly. I can't stress this enough for all of you investors who have serious money tied up with this stock, you should be pressuring Elon 24/7 to clean up his house because it's that bad, it's that dishonest, and it's that corrupt... If I was the only one saying this then sure you could brand me as crazy but just look around, I'm far from alone.

    Jeff
     
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  18. ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️

    ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️ Fritterer and waster of hours in an off hand wayer

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    What happened?
     
  19. jeffro01

    jeffro01 Active Member

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    I'd really rather not get into the details until my current saga is over... Naturally, who knows when that'll be since suddenly no one will return an email or pick up their phone or return a voicemail... Considering the amount of money Tesla owes me, ignoring me isn't going to make me go away...

    Jeff
     
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  20. ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️

    ⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️ Fritterer and waster of hours in an off hand wayer

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    Whatever it is I hope you get it figured out. I wonder how you would be treated if you showed up in person. Obviously you shouldn't have to waste your time doing that. How long has it been since you last emailed them?
     

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