Oh, they'll pay for as NOTHING is free. Whether it's an optional extra or added to the base price of the car. At some point that's how it will come but, be clear on one thing, it won't be free. What will happen is there will, at some point, start restricting highways to self driving cars only. Most cars come with AC...it's not free either, it's part of the price.
That raises a good question. How are insurance costs distributed? Are the safest cars the ones with the lowest insurance? A P3D, P100D model S. A car that can do 155mph, 0-60 in under 3 secs OR is it actuarially determined based on claims and/or historic claims. So long as a drunk 30 yr old can go all Mad Max in it or that's the driver they attract. I don't know as I am not an actuary for insurance companies. My Model 3 AWD non-p is significantly more expensive than any other car's insurance I had. I've got a spotless driving record. I suspect it has a lot to do with being significantly more expensive than any other car I've ever owned. I suspect it is more what would it cost to repair and how much are law suit settlements. Thoughts?
I completely disagree.
We'll know in 6 months. Allegedly, regulatory approval ready in 18 months. In 6 months we'll know how likely approval in 12 months is. Until end of 2019, it's all pure speculation.
There will always be edge cases, always. There are right now today driving a Kia or Audi. Any event you could and did not anticipate is an edge case. As for Elon bring over-optimistic, the closer you are to the finish line, the less wiggle room you have. He was unambiguous about this year. He equivocated slightly on end of 2020.
I'd put money on yes to both by end of 2020, soft yes by end of 2019. BTW, how do you find the new 2019-12-1?
On L5, that is all circumstances a normal driver would be expected to successfully drive. No raging blizzards, etc. I didn't even like Atari back when it was 'a thing'. I was making IMDOS (Imsai's microcomputer OS) reentrant. Actually that was earlier than Atari. I hope I get 2019-12-1 soon, I have several longish trips this week. One of which is to see Endgame, on Monday, late the day 1 crowds have day 1 and family day Sat/Sun.I hope Tesla does L5. I just know that it is more difficult because it has to do self-driving in all circumstances.
Regarding thew new update, overall, I really like it. I don't care for the atari games and I probably won't see much difference with the peak torque performance. Bu I really like being able to see if you have an update pending in advance. I also really like the increase supercharging and battery warm up. That should make long trips even better.
Autopilot does seem a bit better too. TACC is super smooth in normal traffic. Auto steer is solid. Maybe this isn't new, but I did notice that on local streets, auto steer seemed to lock on to the center divider line so it stayed straight and did not veer into parked cars. There was one instance on a city street where there was no right lane line at all (it was just grass and driveways), left blue line was solid but the right blue line on the screen was undulating a bit and AP asked me to take control but the car still stayed perfectly straight though and never had to disengage AP, I just tugged the wheel. I also noticed coming into the entrance of my work which is a wide entrance, wide enough for 2 cars but no center lane, that when I hit the turn signal to make a turn, AP warned me with the red line on the screen. So even though there was no center line, AP still interpreted it as a lane change and since there were cars coming my way, it warned me against a "lane change". Neat!
I do get a chance to try NOA later today on the new update, when I go see Endgame.
I want to elaborate on this. Simply put, software is difficult, pricing wise. Hardware, easy you know how much the raw materials cost, you know your chosen margin and, if marketing is doing their job, they know initial customer base, maturation curve and aging fall off. Software has N resources assigned, a competency curve where the problem space goes from heavily unknown next steps to few to zero unknowns. Then there is "the march of 9s", processing new data, extracting new edge cases etc. It's very difficult to come up with an end of lifecycle date. If they are shooting for 5 nines, carrier grade, or better? The only way it will get there is to eliminate human drivers. Here's the problem there, better than the avg driver, who's avg? I've been driving over 50 years. There are 'edge cases' I've never encountered. I've encountered more than the avg driver though. Answering that is a societal problem. There's a chance I could find myself in a fatal accident. It's small, way smaller than for a 16 year old but greater than zero. If I am under FSD and get into an accident someone doesn't live through, is that an actuarial (statistical) problem or a fault with the software/hardware? As Elon posited, if you address all the edge cases then we are living in a simulation. As it relates to the ongoing cost of FSD, essentially, who defines 'done'. In the mean time, you have a staff and assets working on that that isn't free. The cost needs to be past on.
