Why there can never be a "Tesla Killer" car

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I mean seriously, the best you can do at a gas pump is this:
- swipe card
- wait 5 second for it to ask you if its credit or debit (perhaps first two items are switched around randomly)
- wait 5 second for it to ask you to enter a zip code
- take 5 seconds to enter zip code on crappy keypad
- wait 10 seconds for it to authorize your card for
- take 5 seconds asking if you want a car wash
- take 5 seconds asking if you want a receipt

- swipe card
- wait 5 seconds for it to authorize and ask for PIN
- enter PIN and wait 5 seconds for it to validate PIN
...
- while pumping gas, enter yes to get a receipt

My regular gas station has a branded unlinked debit card and no car wash, so it speeds some things up. It emails you a receipt so you don't need one unless you're someone like me who wants to record the gallons.

You can also pay using an app, but I've never used it.

I also live somewhere where a line for gas implies that a pump's broken, and there's plenty of gas stations near me, and on my routes, so I can't even really call it particularly inconvenient. Unpleasant, but not really inconvenient.

Of course, I'm in a small state in a big country and I'm under no illusions that this place is typical.

 

[vandacca]

I disagree. I watch too much youtube though. But anyway, one of the things I watch is all the super new batteries coming down the pike. I firmly believe in 5 yrs there will be a battery for EVs that recharges extremely fast - comparable to a gas car refilling its tank. It may also be safer, cheaper and more energy dense. At that point Tesla will be "killed", if they stick with the chemistry they have now. Hopefully they would have the cash to re-design Tesla batteries and survive, but if not, we'll all be getting rid of our early adopter EVs and getting new ones we can charge anywhere in seconds, just like gas cars can re-fill their tanks anywhere today. Tesla is very much at risk, if they don't stay on the cutting edge of battery tech. I knew I was buying a car that would be obsolete at some point. I hope like crazy its sooner rather than later. And Tesla adapts.

At the moment, Tesla is at the forefront of battery technology. Not only do they have the best battery tech, they also have the cheapest (win-win).

Tesla is still in start-up mode and trying to innovate as quickly as possible. If a new production-ready battery technology gets developed, Tesla will likely be the first to adopt it. Not only that, but the other manufacturers tend to rely heavily on 3rd-party supplies for batteries where Tesla's battery expert is one of the top-3 at the company. They also are funding top battery researchers (eg. Jeff Dahn).

Finally, traditional automakers tend to test components for years before putting them into production, so even if a new tech became available today, they wouldn't put it on the road for at least 3-4 years.

A small Chinese start-up would be more likely to come out with new battery tech.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

- swipe card
- wait 5 seconds for it to authorize and ask for PIN
- enter PIN and wait 5 seconds for it to validate PIN
...
- while pumping gas, enter yes to get a receipt

My regular gas station has a branded unlinked debit card and no car wash, so it speeds some things up. It emails you a receipt so you don't need one unless you're someone like me who wants to record the gallons.

You can also pay using an app, but I've never used it.

I also live somewhere where a line for gas implies that a pump's broken, and there's plenty of gas stations near me, and on my routes, so I can't even really call it particularly inconvenient. Unpleasant, but not really inconvenient.

Of course, I'm in a small state in a big country and I'm under no illusions that this place is typical.

It appears like you guys have never heard of gas points.

Gas and groceries are somehow tied together in this weird point system where I buy groceries. So the more groceries you buy the more gas points you get. Now these things expire so you gotta use your gas points.

So what you do is you take your gas car to a station that supports these gas points, and you swipe that card first. It won't work the first time so you gotta flip it around. You gotta be really careful not to try too many times or the pump will simply say "Please see attendant" or something like that. Once it does that your screwed, and you gotta move your car to a different pump to try all over again.

Once the points card is accepted then you can can continue the process as previously described.

 

[bxr140]

Traditionally, people think in myoptic terms and compare some spec(s) of one car to a Tesla and indicate that it is better...

Except that...the point of 'killer' is explicitly bench racing. Whether something is faster or cheaper or sold in higher volumes, hard numbers are the foundation to any 'killer' discussion. While I don't think anyone (except maybe Fox News) can disagree with spirit of your point, you simply changed the [very accepted] definition of 'killer' as justification for that point. (Much like Fox News. )

Therefore, the vast majority of comparisons/decisions will be between a "Tesla Killer" and an ICE vehicle, not an actual Tesla...

'Tesla Killer' is often if not always in reference to another EV (including hybrids), and there's no indication that will change in the future.

It just dawned on me that no such car could ever be built, and here is why.

At least in the 'not anytime soon' timeframe, there will be no such thing as a Tesla Killer because there is nobody that can or will sell an better total package EV. Hyperbole may make 'killer' headlines for a car that's a little faster, or a little cheaper, or delivered sooner, or break less--but Tesla's perpetual lead in technology and overall EV product solution are the reason it will be a long time--if ever--before any equivalent product actually kills a Tesla.

 

[UCFKnights]

It appears like you guys have never heard of gas points.

Gas and groceries are somehow tied together in this weird point system where I buy groceries. So the more groceries you buy the more gas points you get. Now these things expire so you gotta use your gas points.

So what you do is you take your gas car to a station that supports these gas points, and you swipe that card first. It won't work the first time so you gotta flip it around. You gotta be really careful not to try too many times or the pump will simply say "Please see attendant" or something like that. Once it does that your screwed, and you gotta move your car to a different pump to try all over again.

Once the points card is accepted then you can can continue the process as previously described.

Haha, yup. I didn't even want to get into that, but I do use a points card as well at the gas station I go to, as my business purchases from a points eligible business and orders in bulk, so I usually can get like 20 or 40 gallons per month of gas at 9 cents per gallons, but there is literally no way to spend less then 10 minutes at the station getting gas when you use it. It frequently makes me enter the full 16 digit card number and if you type a digit wrong, the only option is clear and start over, which also makes you reselect your rewards card type and everything. The station near me actually takes 2 different rewards types (the national fuel brand and the store brand) and you can use rewards and earn rewards while pumping, but its 2 different entries, in the reader, and when I try to do that, it literally takes 15+ minutes, I've long since given up on earning the rewards at the pump since its so little value and spending them gets me much more. Plus I swear if you get the dreaded "see attendant" message after entering your rewards card, it still takes the "20 gallons for $1.90" credit off the card, and it can literally take an hour plus of time on the phone with them to get it back for them to verify you didn't pump any gas, so its too risky to enter another rewards card lol. And this is after they just replaced the pumps with new touchscreens and equipment a few months ago. (It actually was better before with the black & white screen and a separate rewards card reader, but they wanted those gas station TV advertisements I guess)

 

[vandacca]

How timely...
How Tesla is going to be overtaken by the other automotive manufacturers:
Tesla leads in future e-mobility race but the large German OEMs are rapidly catching up and will have overtaken by 2021

 

[ℬête Noire]

I'm all for supporting other car companies, but I would suggest that we boycott Chevrolet until they come out with a decent electric vehicle. .... I also like the Hyundai Kona all-electric.

Aaaaaaah???? There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of light between the Bolt and the Kona. Admittedly I haven't seen the Kona EV in person, since they aren't shipping here to the US yet (I've seen it's ICE variant), and the Kona does have TACC (which is sorely missing on the Bolt), but those are quite similar vehicles.

 

[gavine]

Good thing I did a search first. I was going to start this very same thread this morning. Kudos to the OP. Well-said.

A die-hard Mercedes fan might test drive the EQC and love it but think, "maybe I should check-out a Tesla now to see what they are all about". Once they do the research, they will realize how much better the Tesla is and lean that way instead. If it weren't for the EQC, they may have never even considered an EV, let alone a Tesla.

 

[beths11]

I'm all for supporting other car companies, but I would suggest that we boycott Chevrolet until they come out with a decent electric vehicle. I applaud Jaguar for the iPace (I have preordered one). I also like the Hyundai Kona all-electric. I am looking forward to a long range Nissan Leaf Nismo.

Do you plan to take trips in the I-pace. I don't see any infrastructure to support it?

 

[bxr140]

Do you plan to take trips in the I-pace. I don't see any infrastructure to support it?

Take it easy on the rhetoric.

There’s a VERY well established CCS infrastructure in the US, and it’s growing. If someone were to compare numbers I’d say it’s easily equivalent to a 2014 and maybe even a 2015 supercharger network.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Take it easy on the rhetoric.

There’s a VERY well established CCS infrastructure in the US, and it’s growing. If someone were to compare numbers I’d say it’s easily equivalent to a 2014 and maybe even a 2015 supercharger network.

At half the charging speed. And double the cost. Then you look at the placement, it's clustered inside the cities rather than planned out out for moving between cities. You've got segments of a corridor in part of the East Coast and on the West Coast, in-between you've thousands of miles of islands with near nothing between.

I looked at the end of last year and decided it wasn't even worth bothering having the $750 DCFast option installed in the Bolt. I couldn't get Houston to Dallas (!) without reverting to Level 2, basically making that trip an overnight affair, much less get anywhere along the Third Coast.

The iPace has some interesting things going on but touring isn't one of them yet, unless you're up for the 1 day trip turns into a 3 day trip shuffle. The density of Level 2 chargers is a lot higher than in 2014, so that's maybe more doable than in 2014 in that sense.

 

[Peteski]

How timely...
How Tesla is going to be overtaken by the other automotive manufacturers:
Tesla leads in future e-mobility race but the large German OEMs are rapidly catching up and will have overtaken by 2021

Like they haven't even sold a single EV directly in competition with Tesla so far as of September 2018. Until these legacy manufacturers finally get off the ICE gravy-train, EVs are going to be nothing more than marketing, toe-dipping projects to them. Reading between the lines, that's still a good couple of decades away from reality. By 2021 they will probably have a few low volume luxury EVs on the market, more to compete with ICE alternatives (their own f****** cars) rather than Tesla, lol!

 

[Olle]

Then there's the Osborne effect
1. Since most of the "Tesla killers" aren't being delivered yet, the Osborne effect would hurt current revenue. Therefore, any announced "Tesla killer" from an incumbent must have worse specs than their ICE cars.
2. Since current Teslas already beat the specs of all ICE cars in each respective price segment, a "Tesla killer" can per definition never beat a Tesla (see point 1 above)
3. Check Mate.

 

[Sg911]

At the moment, Tesla is at the forefront of battery technology. Not only do they have the best battery tech, they also have the cheapest (win-win).

Tesla is still in start-up mode and trying to innovate as quickly as possible. If a new production-ready battery technology gets developed, Tesla will likely be the first to adopt it. Not only that, but the other manufacturers tend to rely heavily on 3rd-party supplies for batteries where Tesla's battery expert is one of the top-3 at the company. They also are funding top battery researchers (eg. Jeff Dahn).

Finally, traditional automakers tend to test components for years before putting them into production, so even if a new tech became available today, they wouldn't put it on the road for at least 3-4 years.

A small Chinese start-up would be more likely to come out with new battery tech.

Tesla also has the capacity to produce more batteries than the world battery supplier’s combined ...if it can lock the raw materials down for its gigafactories- Also, most advanced motors , and tech hardware. Not so much production experience, consistency , and delivery and repair lol

 

[Sg911]

Then there's the Osborne effect
1. Since most of the "Tesla killers" aren't being delivered yet, the Osborne effect would hurt current revenue. Therefore, any announced "Tesla killer" from an incumbent must have worse specs than their ICE cars.
2. Since current Teslas already beat the specs of all ICE cars in each respective price segment, a "Tesla killer" can per definition never beat a Tesla (see point 1 above)
3. Check Mate.

Hopefully ,Tesla can deliver another 75k Model 3’s by year end as the competition won’t start there deliveries until 2019 (not sure what quarter.) That should solidify a even stronger EV presence!

 

[bxr140]

At half the charging speed. And double the cost. Then you look at the placement, it's clustered inside the cities rather than planned out out for moving between cities. You've got segments of a corridor in part of the East Coast and on the West Coast, in-between you've thousands of miles of islands with near nothing between.

Quite a bit of rose colored in there...

There’s plenty of existing intracity mobility on the CCS network, again basically as much as supercharging in 2014, but with more access in some places (especially Canadia). There’s a world beyond Texas.

People travel just fine with the bolt. Not buying the fast-charging option is a bit like doing the same 4 years ago with a model s because the network wasn’t fully built out yet...

 

[ℬête Noire]

There’s a world beyond Texas.

????

OH, I see the issue. "Quite a bit of rose colored in there..." You're staring in the mirror.

Holy crap. Seriously, just pull up the map in PlugShare etc. It's brutal, outside of whatever bubble I assume you're in. And that's just the theoretical, not the actual of trying to use them.

...basically as much as supercharging in 2014...

Which is to say several years behind. That's basically another way of saying "it's not good at all"....and the plan forward doesn't appear to be particularly organized, so it's quite optimistic to hope it'll even be at current Tesla SC levels in 2022.

 

[bxr140]

Which is to say several years behind. That's basically another way of saying "it's not good at all"

Indeed.

I'd encourage you to add a little perspective to your understanding of where we've come from as Tesla owners since 2014.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Indeed.

I'd encourage you to add a little perspective to your understanding of where we've come from as Tesla owners since 2014.

JFC

 

[gavine]

There’s plenty of existing intracity mobility on the CCS network, again basically as much as supercharging in 2014, but with more access in some places (especially Canadia)

When comparing a Tesla Supercharger map to a CCS map, you have to consider the fact that the CCS pins on the map typically have one charge plug, whereas, Superchargers have multiple stations per location. That makes a big difference, especially, when more and more EVs are on the road. Having one CCS station at a busy location, and one that is only 50kW, will make for a long wait.