Why there can never be a "Tesla Killer" car

[bxr140]

When comparing a Tesla Supercharger map to a CCS map, you have to consider the fact that the CCS pins on the map typically have one charge plug, whereas, Superchargers have multiple stations per location.

Yeah, for sure, number of plugs is very important. Distribution is also important, of course, which is where the current (and especially near future) CCS maps surpass supercharging in 2014.

Minding the initial context form ~10 posts ago, it is very short sighted to throw stones at current day capability of the away team just because we're beyond that capability with the home team. To wit, basically telling someone they shouldn't buy an I-pace because there's no travel infrastructure is as silly as those same conversations were with some of us four years ago (or five, for some of us).

 

[ℬête Noire]

Distribution is also important, of course, which is where the current (and especially near future) CCS maps surpass supercharging in 2014.

It's like you're drunk and unable to comprehend his post?

Well at least you're dialing back from the "2015" lunacy, but this is just nonsense. PlugShare - Find Electric Vehicle Charging Locations Near You Set it to CCS only, then realize the ones with the little wrenches are "nope, not actually here at all". Click on the others and see that often they're just a single charger (and sometimes a single spot shared among 3 standards)....and you don't have any idea until you pull up on one if they're in use or even functioning at all. Then weep for anyone that's going to travel outside the truncated sections of the East and West Coast because they'll be traveling at a speed of 3x as long as an ICE, since at best they'll be L2 nearly all their trip. While you're at it weep for those on the coasts, too, because they'll be paying 25MPG premium fuel costs and about 50%, when they managed to get into a spot.

For giggles then compare and contrast the map with the SC one. Below is from last Fall, with CHAdemo tossed in. Anything pop out at you about the distribution? :^)

"BUT 2015! Er, 2014!", you cry?

Yeah, about that:

Seeing a "pattern" here?

Maybe by the end of next year, maybe, CCS will have something approaching the 2014 Supercharger network in the US. Hopefully, figured crossed. Only not, because it's still slower (less than 1/2 the peak charging speed), significantly less ports per site, poorly distributed sites, costing gasoline prices, without the look ahead features of the SC.

 

[bob_p]

There will be compelling competition for Tesla.

But the biggest risk to Tesla is Tesla itself.

If Tesla can execute on their plans to continue expanding the supercharger/destination charger network, fully implement EAP/FSD (for all cars built in the last 2 years), continue to make major improvements to the onboard software, continue to upgrade/improve the features on new vehicles, continue to add new vehicles to the lineup and provide a quality service/sales experience, while maintaining a price/functionality point comparable to other manufacturers, then Tesla should be OK.

Though if they fail in any of these areas, they risk damaging their brand loyalty - and will start seeing erosion of their market. And perhaps brining on board a Chief Operating Officer to focus on implementation might help Tesla hit all of these goals,, and let Musk focus on the future direction of the company.

For us, we've purchased an S 100D last year and an X 100D this year, so we likely won't be in the market for a replacement for another few years. By then, hope to see Tesla continue to maintain their current position as the market leader, so it will be an easy decision to buy our next Tesla.

 

[Peteski]

There will be compelling competition for Tesla.

But the biggest risk to Tesla is Tesla itself.

If Tesla can execute on their plans to continue expanding the supercharger/destination charger network, fully implement EAP/FSD (for all cars built in the last 2 years), continue to make major improvements to the onboard software, continue to upgrade/improve the features on new vehicles, continue to add new vehicles to the lineup and provide a quality service/sales experience, while maintaining a price/functionality point comparable to other manufacturers, then Tesla should be OK.

Though if they fail in any of these areas, they risk damaging their brand loyalty - and will start seeing erosion of their market. And perhaps brining on board a Chief Operating Officer to focus on implementation might help Tesla hit all of these goals,, and let Musk focus on the future direction of the company.

For us, we've purchased an S 100D last year and an X 100D this year, so we likely won't be in the market for a replacement for another few years. By then, hope to see Tesla continue to maintain their current position as the market leader, so it will be an easy decision to buy our next Tesla.

I agree, Tesla just need to focus on their own game plan to keep ahead.

They made some amazing decisions early on that leapt them way ahead of the competition. The Model S in 2012 was light years ahead of anything else produced up to that point in time, a true landmark vehicle that will sit proudly in the history of motoring for the next hundred years. The fact that in mid 2018 it still has precisely zero competition is mind-blowing, but obviously that will not last forever as the legacy brands finally get off their asses. 2019 will be the first year with some direct competition and Tesla will almost certainly need an all-new Model S replacement by 2020/21 to stay in the game. The fact that the S still looks good after 6 years of production and one very minor facelift is quite an achievement in its own right, but 10 years would be seriously stretching it when people are lusting after the latest and greatest options. The X still looks fresh out of the future today and should easily be able to compete in its market up to 2021, especially if the build quality continues to improve. But I really hope the next generation of S & X move the goalposts yet again! I'd love to swap our 2018 MX for an all new 2022 model when the time comes.

 

[ℬête Noire]

....and will start seeing erosion of their market.

Of their % of the market, or total sales? If you are referring to % then I can only hope so, otherwise it probably means that EVs are dead. Right now in the US Tesla has about 65% of the plug-in market and the Model 3 alone has 15x the monthly sales of the closest non-Tesla BEV. Expect that to rise in the months ahead.

If nobody can put together a vehicle that makes a meaningful dent in that within a 3-4 years it isn't an EV market, it's a Tesla market. That wouldn't bode well for BEVs longterm.

 

[bxr140]

For those interested in the actual facts behind my statement:

-There are somewhere around ~1658 CCS plugs in North America today (says charge point)
-At the beginning of 2015 there were 148 superchargers sites in North America (say the good people at supercharge.info) Assuming a very generous 8 plugs per site (for those that remember those days, the average is probably closer to 6) that maths to ~1184 plugs.
-Thus, CCS has a minimum of 40% more plugs today than the supercharger network did in the beginning of 2015. (And in reality, probably more like 75% more--perhaps someone can find actual data for number of plugs).

-Next, you can find the CCS distribution here: Alternative Fuels Data Center: Electric Vehicle Charging Station Locations or on plugshare (note that it doesn't seem like you can filter out under construction sites on plugshare...?)
-You can find the actual jan 2015 supercharger map here: Tesla Updates Map of Supercharger Sites - HybridCars.com (presumably the screenshot is from Jan 12, but I didn't count the active sites)
-One of Tesla's tenants top the supercharger buildout was to emphasize serving popular routes between population centers. Over the years they realized that they also need to add density and distribution within those population centers, and we're really starting to see that become a major focus. Any fair minded person will certainly say the current CCA map checks both of those boxes. Any fair minded Tesla owner would pick the CCS map in a blind taste test.

Of course the charging speeds are lower with CCS, of course the likelihood of a wait is higher with CCS, and near as I've heard, the likelihood of non-functional chargers is higher with CCS. But, in the context of "there's no infrastructure to support I-pace travel", the above quantity and distribution data shows that idea is simply hogwash. Any fair minded Tesla owner that actually traveled via supercharger in 2014 (and really, any honest proponent of BEV adoption) will easily see equivalency in the puts-and-takes of this hypothetical.

What this all really comes down to is my frustration having to fend off exactly these kind of arguments 4 years ago (I actually bought my first Telsa in 2013) from the small minded opponents of Tesla and BEVs. Why are we as Tesla owners [and defacto stewards of the EV community] turning our backs on those who are following in our exact footsteps?

 

[ℬête Noire]

For those interested in the actual facts behind my statement:

.... and then you go on to post a potent mix of mis-information, things we've broke down to you why it's misleading, and things that outright undercut your assertion.

The "1658 CCS" cuts across all those.

- It's actually 544 is all of North America, says PlugShare.
- If you include all the "nope" wrench points, which of course are vapour at this point (timeline for that is 2 years or something? I believe they've started holding public hearings on the plan though, so it's not dead yet or anything). It's also including the 25kW (!) chargers, which are barely faster than the best a Model X will do on a Level 2 charging using it's own internal AC->DC convertor.
- And of course that number, besides being nearly all single slot units, are highly concentrated and poorly distributed for actual city to city, state to state travel across most of the country ....as the maps images you put up adequately show.

Just save yourself the embarrassment and give it up....or don't. Frankly I'm indifferent about that at this point, you're not convincing anyone and you're just a waste of my time.

Goodbye.

 

[bxr140]

Again, for those interested in actual facts as opposed to some misleading and misresepsented data (or a basic inability to work the internet?), there are somewhere around 1658 CCS connectors in North America today. Here's a screenshot from charge point. Feel free to fact check, including my arithmetic.

If you prefer, these folks say there's 1804 CCS chargers in North America (presumably, including Hawaii).
Alternative Fuels Data Center: Electric Vehicle Charging Station Locations

 

[DCGOO]

There are a grand total of 3 CCS chargers in the entire State of Indiana, all at Chevrolet dealers. Only 1 claiming 24/7 access. The others are associated with dealer service departments and available only when the service department is open. One of those is actually in the service entrance bay, so if you need to charge, get in line with all the ICE chevy's waiting for their oil change. CHAdeMO is slightly better with about 10 but all concentrated in one city. There are approximately 90 superchargers spread fairly evenly throughout the State. Another ~20 are coming online yet this year at two locations in southwestern Indiana.

 

[bxr140]

There are a grand total of 3 CCS chargers in the entire State of Indiana, all at Chevrolet dealers.

There's actually more than 3, many with 24h access: Alternative Fuels Data Center: Electric Vehicle Charging Station Locations. The good news is those already enable travel to places like Chicago and points east for long range CCS cars. Bigger picture, the unfortunate news is that Indiana (and in general much of the midwest) isn't a hotbed of consumer interest in long range EVs relative to more progressive regions, so the for-profit CCS charging networks aren't really spending a lot of money there. Capitalism, as it were. Times are changing with Dieselgate fallout, but I digress...

Regardless, you're absolutely right that there's underserved CCS markets in 2018--that's exactly the point in this conversation. For years there have been all manner of underserved markets in the supercharger network, and that history lends itself to drawing a natural comparison to the CCS network. Look at the Jan 2015 supercharger map I linked above and you can see many those underserved areas. Find more recent maps and see how long it took for some of those underserved areas to connect to the network (or look even farther back to see what kinds of adventures folks had to deal with traveling in 2013...to say nothing of the brave souls in 2012....)

For an example of some of the growing pains suffered during the supercharger network buildout, you weren't taking a Texas tagged Tesla off the supercharger island until 2015. Heck, back then you had to drive ~50 miles from Houston to even find a supercharger. The I-10 link through NM? That finally got closed like last year. Arkansas recently got superchargers, and North Dakota still doesn't have any superchargers. San Diego--in southern friggin' California of all places--had to wait until mid 2015 to get their first supercharger (and some locals would debate the legitimacy of calling that a SD supercharger...). And then there's Canada...

 

[beths11]

Take it easy on the rhetoric.

There’s a VERY well established CCS infrastructure in the US, and it’s growing. If someone were to compare numbers I’d say it’s easily equivalent to a 2014 and maybe even a 2015 supercharger network.

No rhetoric, genuinely curious. I guess there is a difference of opinion reading other's responses. You are in the Bay Area, so I would guess local travel is not a issue. Is there a I-Pace trip planning tool which could lay out a cross country trip so I could see for myself their charging infrastructure and how long it would take? I went to their website but didn't find anything about the ease of long distance travel.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Is there a I-Pace trip planning tool which could lay out a cross country trip so I could see for myself their charging infrastructure and how long it would take? I went to their website but didn't find anything about the ease of long distance travel.

Of course there's nothing there, the they are silent on it, because it is extremely bleak. I spent a good deal of time over weeks digging on this when I bought our Bolt late last year.

To try sell on it at all would either undermine the sale by bringing attention to it or invite huge ill-will, vehicle return wrath, and lawsuit claims if they managed to close a sale using the "look at the size of these numbers!" type of message.

It's a really tough nut to crack, there's no real direct profit to be had at this point in operating these chargers at this point. Tesla did because they were willing to take the loss leader and treated it as a combination of costed into the price of the vehicles they were selling and an structural investment for selling future vehicles. They put huge effort into understanding what was needed, where to locate, and co-ordinated the whole thing as an actual organized network. No other manufacturer cared enough, was committed enough to step forward on that. They seemed to think they could just leave it to 3rd parties to sort out, just like they do with gas stations? Or they just didn't care enough (and hadn't been forced to spend the money due to a conviction on an unrelated matter).

Maybe this $2Bil (IIRC) that VW is going to spend will be used wisely and it'll come together in a few years? I mentioned above they are holding public hearings on it, there's one local some time in the near future. I heard of it through the local Tesla Facebook group. I haven't made time in the schedule to attend it but may try (if it hasn't already happened?). Still it's some time out to come to fruition and I'm not sure how much flexibility they have in network shape because they seem to have the idea that they'll use a partnership w/Walmart to be able to secure physical locations quickly.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Ok, one more because I really can't bring myself to let stand the deception/delusion:

Again, for those interested in actual facts as opposed to some misleading and misresepsented data ....(

.... just check closely on the images you posted (red highlighting added).

 

[DCGOO]

There's actually more than 3, many with 24h access: Alternative Fuels Data Center: Electric Vehicle Charging Station Locations.

I actually think the database you used in your post is defective. It looks like they duplicated all the CHAdeMO sites as also being CCS. That is simply not true, from personal visits locally. The CHAdeMO sites are at one specific chain of gas stations, which is good because they can offer 24/7 access. But no CCS present. The only CCS in the state are the three chevy dealers I mentioned earlier. Maybe they have adapters in the station, but asking anyone a question about them is an exercise in futility. They barely can tell if the gas pumps are working.

 

[bxr140]

No rhetoric, genuinely curious.

If its truly honest curiosity, then I apologize for the heavy hand. Considering the extreme ease with which your original statement on CCS infrastructure can be researched as untrue, one might understand how assumed your original intent was to marginalize. That happens from time to time here on TMC, typically in a presentation quite similar to your post.

You are in the Bay Area, so I would guess local travel is not a issue.

The good news is that you are along the I-5 corridor in Oregon, where there's quite a bit of practical CCS charged travel available.

Is there a I-Pace trip planning tool which could lay out a cross country trip so I could see for myself their charging infrastructure and how long it would take?

Sure, there are at least a few planning tools out there, like the Alternative Fuels Data Center site I've linked in this thread [twice], and the ubiquitous and well known plugshare. They're not I-pace/Jaguar specific, due in no small part to the fact that the CCS network is not Jaguar's, but then again no such planner exists on any Tesla website either--the only Tesla trip planner is in the car (and that didn't show up until sometime in 2015...). If you're pre-planning a Tesla trip you're going to evtripplanner or abetterrouteplanner.

Of course there's no cross-country access on the CCS network yet, and that goes back to my point on equivalency to the supercharger network of old--for an example local to you, the only way you could cross country travel from Oregon on the supercharger network was to go through Las Vegas.

 

[bxr140]

I actually think the database you used in your post is defective. It looks like they duplicated all the CHAdeMO sites as also being CCS. That is simply not true, from personal visits locally.

Certainly there could be errors, but no in the manner you suspect. It sounds like your experience with CCS leans toward dealership plugs; what you might not realize is that a number of for-profit DCFC's in the wild today are combo chargers, with both Chademo and CCS plugs. It might even be most of those DCFC's (though that will change as the Dieselgate network is rolled out).

30 seconds on both the website you report as defective as well as plugshare.com confirm this to be the case.

 

[bxr140]

Ok, one more because I really can't bring myself to let stand the deception/delusion:

.... just check closely on the images you posted (red highlighting added).

<giggles>.

For those still reading, I apologize for assuming all of you understood the difference between a charging location and a charging plug--when I talked about plugs earlier I guess I should have elaborated on fundamental concepts of how charging works. Apparently that distinction is not self-evident to all.

 

[ℬête Noire]

<giggles>.

For those still reading, I apologize for assuming all of you understood the difference between a charging location and a charging plug--when I talked about plugs earlier I guess I should have elaborated on fundamental concepts of how charging works. Apparently that distinction is not self-evident to all.

Giggle away but DCGOO right, well partially right except it's not just the database. It's also in how you're querying it. What appears to be happening when you do that is 1 stall, multiple plugs of different standards is pretty common, reporting multiple plugs, meaning that number you're using is total garbage....and that's leaving aside the question of WTF you'd talk about "plugs" anyway. To try puff up the number???

It's so bad I have a hard time believing you aren't being willfully dishonest.

 

[vandacca]

Another point to counter @bxr140.

In 2014 there wasn't any other infrastructure worth mentioning, besides Tesla. Therefore, no competition.

In 2018 Tesla has largest and best infrastructure. Comparing any CCS/Chademo infrastructure to what Tesla had in 2014 is pointless, because no one is going to care about that history. If charging infrastructure is going to be critical to someone's buying decision, they care about what's available right now. They'll be looking at both 2018 maps to make a decision, not 2014 Tesla Map vs 2018 CCS map.

This would be equivalent to buying a cell phone and comparing ATT's 2014 coverage to T-Mobile's 2018 coverage to make a decision on which cell phone carrier to go with.

Furthermore, Tesla has always been all-in with EVs (they don't sell any other type of car), so they built up the infrastructure because it was critical to their business model. Tesla is serious about SuperChargers. Can't say the same thing for the other auto-makers.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Another point to counter @bxr140.

In 2014 there wasn't any other infrastructure worth mentioning, besides Tesla. Therefore, no competition.

In 2018 Tesla has largest and best infrastructure. Comparing any CCS/Chademo infrastructure to what Tesla had in 2014 is pointless, because no one is going to care about that history. If charging infrastructure is going to be critical to someone's buying decision, they care about what's available right now. They'll be looking at both 2018 maps to make a decision, not 2014 Tesla Map vs 2018 CCS map.

This would be equivalent to buying a cell phone and comparing ATT's 2014 coverage to T-Mobile's 2018 coverage to make a decision on which cell phone carrier to go with.

Furthermore, Tesla has always been all-in with EVs (they don't sell any other type of car), so they built up the infrastructure because it was critical to their business model. Tesla is serious about SuperChargers. Can't say the same thing for the other auto-makers.

I don't think the question was ever really about competition here, because that's so obviously not the case and won't be for at least several years. It's a matter of asking the question "Do you really want to try do this?" There are a few corridors where a modest length trip may work (although local info about the chargers may apply, since they normally only have one unit ). However generally unless you've of the "I've got days to kill traveling anyway, don't mind if I do it at a snail's pace" mindset the answer to the question for the iPace is no.

I've got on my calendar a trip to GenCon next August, with one of my kids (and hauling some product for a friend, so I can get a free exhibitor's pass to the convention floor). So let's plug the into the Alliterative Fuels maps to see what brings up, set a nice wide 50 miles either side of path to try bring in what I can (note, this isn't actually trip planning in a comprehensive way to try calculate an itinerary, those types of tools bother try because the algorithm involved would be very hairy).

Yeeeeeaaah, I don't think that's going to work sticking to Level 3. So now the trip turns from a very long day in the Model 3 LR or Model S 100D (perhaps in the Model X 100D) to edging towards a week in the iPace. Upside is it'd be quite the pioneering adventure in "find the L2 or someone that'll let me plug in for the night" with numerous true "range anxiety" moments.

Now GenCon, a 5 day affair, changes from 7 days total to more like a 2 1/2 week trip. Sounds like it's time to catch a plane! LOL