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Why there can never be a "Tesla Killer" car

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If charging infrastructure is going to be critical to someone's buying decision, they care about what's available right now. They'll be looking at both 2018 maps to make a decision, not 2014 Tesla Map vs 2018 CCS map.

100% agree on both points.

The important thing for us to be real about is the fact that the 2018 CCS map will satisfy most of the practical needs along most of the practical routes for most of the prospective CCS owners. IMHO it is absolutely relevant that the story for prospective CCS owners today is exactly the same as it was for prospective Tesla owners in 2014...back then the more established alternative just happened to be ICE. Regardless the history of legacy reluctance toward BEVs, supercharger expansion history is, near as makes no difference, repeating itself with CCS. Why wouldn't we want to encourage that?

And very much on point, don't lose sight of the bigger picture intent here: marginalizing Tesla alternatives, whether intentional or not, is bad for BEVs. Not everyone can afford a Tesla, and those who can might prefer another make. We Tesla owners shouldn't be in the business of perpetuating untruths about the away team, regardless if through ignorance or through malice. We don't need to Trumpify the reality of BEV ownership in an effort to sway people away from anything without a Tesla badge on the hood, we should simply be honest about the benefits and limitations of all options. To wit, discouraging I-pace ownership because there's 'no travel infrastructure' can only be the result of 1) ignorance or 2) deceit.

Furthermore, Tesla has always been all-in with EVs (they don't sell any other type of car), so they built up the infrastructure because it was critical to their business model. Tesla is serious about SuperChargers. Can't say the same thing for the other auto-makers.

100% agree.
 
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Honestly, I can't make this stuff up! :D

As everyone well knows (and let's face it, you do too, you're just being flat out nefarious), charging points is a far better metric for assessing the strength of a charging network than charging locations.

You aren't honest and of course you make stuff up. That's why you ignored the meat of that post and hope your nonsense claim about "plugs" being important that way flies and is able to distract from the other part. It's really awkward for you in the Facts Messing Up Your BS Story way.

Fin.
 
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In 2018 Tesla has largest and best infrastructure. Comparing any CCS/Chademo infrastructure to what Tesla had in 2014 is pointless, because no one is going to care about that history. If charging infrastructure is going to be critical to someone's buying decision, they care about what's available right now. They'll be looking at both 2018 maps to make a decision, not 2014 Tesla Map vs 2018 CCS map.

While true, the past is relevant in another manner, though: Plenty of people bought Teslas before Supercharging was prevalent (there are still places where it isn't, today, yet Teslas are sold). In fact, this is something that even most Tesla owners seem to agree upon when discussing charging woes: There is a large contigent of BEV drivers who basically only charge at home, at night.

I would know. Living in a remote area Tesla-wise, I'm severely limited by Supercharger network coverage still today and bought my first Tesla when there was no Superchargers within the range of the car. Once a BEV has enough range to handle any local contigencies and a night or two of not being able to charge it, it works for a significant percentage of people. IMO the big battery BEV is a big deal in its own right, even without any remote charging. Those choices are only now appearing in many markets from Tesla competition...

(Personally I would have much more use for, say, 360 degree parking camera views than Supercharging. That said, as a tech-enthusiast I personally find following Tesla's AP2 story compelling enough to not be in any rush to swap out my Model X. Also, silly falcon wings FTW.)
 
I think there is a large group of buyers out there who are curious enough to consider buying a luxury EV, but wouldn't go near a Tesla out of fear of change and risk. These are the people who will be dipping their toes in the water with the new Jaguar, Audi, Porsche and Merc BEVs in the next year or two simply out of brand familiarity and trust. These people will probably not even appreciate the implications of public charging until they are actually living with it!
 
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I think there is a large group of buyers out there who are curious enough to consider buying a luxury EV, but wouldn't go near a Tesla out of fear of change and risk. These are the people who will be dipping their toes in the water with the new Jaguar, Audi, Porsche and Merc BEVs in the next year or two simply out of brand familiarity and trust. These people will probably not even appreciate the implications of public charging until they are actually living with it!
What you are saying was probably very true five years ago. But as Tesla has become the household name in large luxury cars throughout the world Tesla Model S outsells German luxury flagships in Europe and passenger cars in the US (Tesla Model 3 = #1 Best Selling Car In The US (In Revenue) | CleanTechnica) the picture has changed.
By now it is fairy easy to see the pattern of Tesla dominating every market that it enters, and the incumbents becoming marginalized in segment after segment. After all these years nothing in this trajectory has changed. Since Tesla dominates its segments outright, electric or not, the fact that incumbents add EVs won't change anything, its too late and too far fetched to have anything to do with Tesla already being most googled car brand, most peoples' dream car, top of list where engineers want to work and so on. Those are the things that matter and that take time to change.

I would be more concerned of "change and risk" in going with a non Tesla brand now. Add the discomfort and pain of having to deal with a dealer on top of that and things are looking pretty good for Tesla comparatively speaking.
 
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Not every town has a Tesla service center. I'm willing to drive an hour to get my Tesla serviced, but many folks would rather go to a convenient Mercedes or Audi dealership. It will be hard to beat Tesla's charging infrastructure for the next few years.
 
While true, the past is relevant in another manner, though: Plenty of people bought Teslas before Supercharging was prevalent (there are still places where it isn't, today, yet Teslas are sold). In fact, this is something that even most Tesla owners seem to agree upon when discussing charging woes: There is a large contigent of BEV drivers who basically only charge at home, at night.

I would know. Living in a remote area Tesla-wise, I'm severely limited by Supercharger network coverage still today and bought my first Tesla when there was no Superchargers within the range of the car. Once a BEV has enough range to handle any local contigencies and a night or two of not being able to charge it, it works for a significant percentage of people. IMO the big battery BEV is a big deal in its own right, even without any remote charging. Those choices are only now appearing in many markets from Tesla competition...

(Personally I would have much more use for, say, 360 degree parking camera views than Supercharging. That said, as a tech-enthusiast I personally find following Tesla's AP2 story compelling enough to not be in any rush to swap out my Model X. Also, silly falcon wings FTW.)
There are 2 points I'd like to make:
(a) If someone is making a EV decision today, they will compare current charging infrastructure (assuming remote charging is important to them). Just because 5 years ago there wasn't any and a few early adopters managed without them, that has no bearings on today's consumers.

(b) You and I are part of an insignificant group. We are technical and very early adopters. We are willing to find solutions and put up with lots of inconveniences in order to play with this new technology. People like us will contribute very little to Tesla's sales moving forward. An established charging infrastructure will be very important to the vast majority of "normal" people out there.

What you are saying was probably very true five years ago. But as Tesla has become the household name in large luxury cars throughout the world Tesla Model S outsells German luxury flagships in Europe and passenger cars in the US (Tesla Model 3 = #1 Best Selling Car In The US (In Revenue) | CleanTechnica) the picture has changed.
By now it is fairy easy to see the pattern of Tesla dominating every market that it enters, and the incumbents becoming marginalized in segment after segment. After all these years nothing in this trajectory has changed. Since Tesla dominates its segments outright, electric or not, the fact that incumbents add EVs won't change anything, its too late and too far fetched to have anything to do with Tesla already being most googled car brand, most peoples' dream car, top of list where engineers want to work and so on. Those are the things that matter and that take time to change.

I would be more concerned of "change and risk" in going with a non Tesla brand now. Add the discomfort and pain of having to deal with a dealer on top of that and things are looking pretty good for Tesla comparatively speaking.
I agree with @Olle. Tesla is the leader in EV technology (in both perception and reality). If you want the best EV, most will think of a Tesla. However, fortunately for everyone else, there are a lot of consumers that would be happy with a cheaper knock-off that is almost as good as a Tesla, so there should be room for lots of competition.

Some of those "knock-offs" will eventually improve, innovate and catch up to Tesla, at which point the competitive market will have stabilized to a few major EV players. Not yet sure who those will be.
 
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What you are saying was probably very true five years ago. But as Tesla has become the household name in large luxury cars throughout the world Tesla Model S outsells German luxury flagships in Europe and passenger cars in the US (Tesla Model 3 = #1 Best Selling Car In The US (In Revenue) | CleanTechnica) the picture has changed.
By now it is fairy easy to see the pattern of Tesla dominating every market that it enters, and the incumbents becoming marginalized in segment after segment. After all these years nothing in this trajectory has changed. Since Tesla dominates its segments outright, electric or not, the fact that incumbents add EVs won't change anything, its too late and too far fetched to have anything to do with Tesla already being most googled car brand, most peoples' dream car, top of list where engineers want to work and so on. Those are the things that matter and that take time to change.

I would be more concerned of "change and risk" in going with a non Tesla brand now. Add the discomfort and pain of having to deal with a dealer on top of that and things are looking pretty good for Tesla comparatively speaking.

Regardless of the number of Tesla converts and fans, I think my point still stands i.e. there is also a large group of people who wouldn't go near a Tesla and would basically only buy a top end German car. I'm not saying their reasoning is particularly sound (I drive a Model X and prefer it to any of the current German ICE/hybrid rivals) but just pop on any German car forum and you will see the kind of stereotype I'm talking about. I'm a Porsche owner too and frequent some of those forums and there are definitely guys on there considering BEVs for the first time now that Porsche, Audi and Merc have all announced imminent luxury models. For most of those guys, Tesla was always a non-starter or at best a long shot risky option to consider.

So what I'm suggesting here is that these new German BEV contenders are not really Tesla killers, they are more aimed at people who probably wouldn't have ever considered a Tesla in the first place. In other words they will be competing more against their own ICE and hybrid offerings than Tesla. I know that's a big generalisation and there will be people looking at both Tesla and mainstream manufacturers for their next BEV, but there will definitely be a new crop of first time luxury BEV buyers moving over from their ICE Mercs and Audis with the minimum of risk and change (in their minds at least!).
 
I agree with @Olle. Tesla is the leader in EV technology (in both perception and reality). If you want the best EV, most will think of a Tesla.

Playing devil's advocate here, there are also a lot of people out there who think Tesla are selling over-priced junk and even that all EVs are total rubbish. Things are changing quite rapidly, but I think the reality is harsher than you may think!
 
Playing devil's advocate here, there are also a lot of people out there who think Tesla are selling over-priced junk and even that all EVs are total rubbish. Things are changing quite rapidly, but I think the reality is harsher than you may think!
I can't disagree with you on that. I only hope that a lot of that is due to misrepresentation from desperate challengers (either shorters, old automotive, or oil/gas industry). The growing "Tesla Army" should be able to counter that in no time (12-24 months). As soon as the Tesla army is large enough, journalists will then fall into place and then very quickly perception should match reality.
 
Playing devil's advocate here, there are also a lot of people out there who think Tesla are selling over-priced junk and even that all EVs are total rubbish. Things are changing quite rapidly, but I think the reality is harsher than you may think!
Have you ever met any of these Tesla and EV bashers in person? I have not. When people see a Tesla or the subject comes up, I hear nothing but praise, 5 years and counting. Coinsidence?

I can't disagree with you on that. I only hope that a lot of that is due to misrepresentation from desperate challengers (either shorters, old automotive, or oil/gas industry). The growing "Tesla Army" should be able to counter that in no time (12-24 months). As soon as the Tesla army is large enough, journalists will then fall into place and then very quickly perception should match reality.
Spot on. Especially in what one can perceive as paid or indirectly paid bashing articles as well as in anonymous trolls in comment sections. Why anonymous and never in person?
 
Regardless of the number of Tesla converts and fans, I think my point still stands i.e. there is also a large group of people who wouldn't go near a Tesla and would basically only buy a top end German car. I'm not saying their reasoning is particularly sound (I drive a Model X and prefer it to any of the current German ICE/hybrid rivals) but just pop on any German car forum and you will see the kind of stereotype I'm talking about. I'm a Porsche owner too and frequent some of those forums and there are definitely guys on there considering BEVs for the first time now that Porsche, Audi and Merc have all announced imminent luxury models. For most of those guys, Tesla was always a non-starter or at best a long shot risky option to consider.

So what I'm suggesting here is that these new German BEV contenders are not really Tesla killers, they are more aimed at people who probably wouldn't have ever considered a Tesla in the first place. In other words they will be competing more against their own ICE and hybrid offerings than Tesla. I know that's a big generalisation and there will be people looking at both Tesla and mainstream manufacturers for their next BEV, but there will definitely be a new crop of first time luxury BEV buyers moving over from their ICE Mercs and Audis with the minimum of risk and change (in their minds at least!).
I agree with you on this, but think that what used to be called Tesla converts is now the majority and the people who you are referring to is a proportionally much smaller group. If in doubt, look at the numbers of Model 3 and Model S in their respective market segments.
 
There are 2 points I'd like to make:
(a) If someone is making a EV decision today, they will compare current charging infrastructure (assuming remote charging is important to them). Just because 5 years ago there wasn't any and a few early adopters managed without them, that has no bearings on today's consumers.

(b) You and I are part of an insignificant group. We are technical and very early adopters. We are willing to find solutions and put up with lots of inconveniences in order to play with this new technology. People like us will contribute very little to Tesla's sales moving forward. An established charging infrastructure will be very important to the vast majority of "normal" people out there.

Not really my point, though, although obviously true we are such adopters and it is true Tesla's long-range charging offering is a sales advantage depending on the area.

My point is that there is a market for people who rarely, if ever need to travel beyond the reach of home charging - once the battery is big enough (200+ mile cars). The paradigm shift for BEVs there is the home (or office) charging and no filling station visits, once the battery is big enough that it lasts without intraday charging and can survive a missed charge night or two...

Anytime you need to take a BEV on the long road, it will be a nuisance anyway until charging speeds approach gasoline fill-ups. Obviously Tesla leads in solving this, but it is still far from solved in many areas anyway. But already today a big battery BEV charging at home is a very compelling car for those who never travel long-distance anyway...

So far the only big-battery BEVs (internationally) have been Teslas, so this difference hasn't been tested as much, because the only big battery BEV has been the one with the best long-distance charging too. But once those other big battery alternatives start appearing starting right about now, my theory of course starts getting tested... We shall see. Personally I find a home charging, big battery BEV very compelling even without any long-distance charging.

And a big battery BEV is a very, very different proposition than a compliance small battery BEV for this scenario...

Put it this way: You never drive long-distance, and there is no Tesla service center in your city... How compelling could a locally serviceable I-Pace or e-tron be in comparison?
 
Not really my point, though, although obviously true we are such adopters and it is true Tesla's long-range charging offering is a sales advantage depending on the area.

My point is that there is a market for people who rarely, if ever need to travel beyond the reach of home charging - once the battery is big enough (200+ mile cars). The paradigm shift for BEVs there is the home (or office) charging and no filling station visits, once the battery is big enough that it lasts without intraday charging and can survive a missed charge night or two...

Anytime you need to take a BEV on the long road, it will be a nuisance anyway until charging speeds approach gasoline fill-ups. Obviously Tesla leads in solving this, but it is still far from solved in many areas anyway. But already today a big battery BEV charging at home is a very compelling car for those who never travel long-distance anyway...

So far the only big-battery BEVs (internationally) have been Teslas, so this difference hasn't been tested as much, because the only big battery BEV has been the one with the best long-distance charging too. But once those other big battery alternatives start appearing starting right about now, my theory of course starts getting tested... We shall see. Personally I find a home charging, big battery BEV very compelling even without any long-distance charging.

And a big battery BEV is a very, very different proposition than a compliance small battery BEV for this scenario...

Put it this way: You never drive long-distance, and there is no Tesla service center in your city... How compelling could a locally serviceable I-Pace or e-tron be in comparison?

I rarely need to use Supercharging, but it was still a big factor in choosing a Tesla over a PHEV or ICE. About 95% of my driving is relatively short distance comfortably inside the range of a Tesla battery, but those few long haul trips are critical to our enjoyment of the car i.e. family trips away. Having that kind of versatility (even if not used on a daily or even weekly basis) was pretty important for us when choosing our main family car. But we could easily live with a second large battery EV without any long haul charging capability at all.
 
I rarely need to use Supercharging, but it was still a big factor in choosing a Tesla over a PHEV or ICE. About 95% of my driving is relatively short distance comfortably inside the range of a Tesla battery, but those few long haul trips are critical to our enjoyment of the car i.e. family trips away. Having that kind of versatility (even if not used on a daily or even weekly basis) was pretty important for us when choosing our main family car. But we could easily live with a second large battery EV without any long haul charging capability at all.

I might not use Supercharging for long travel, but with the combination of cold weather and outages (although I've not yet even quite had a 24 hour outage due to where I live) I would want reliable DCFC available as a back-up. There are Superchargers, CCS or CHAdeMO that would meet my needs, but Superchargers have the advantage in plugs.
 
I agree with you on this, but think that what used to be called Tesla converts is now the majority and the people who you are referring to is a proportionally much smaller group. If in doubt, look at the numbers of Model 3 and Model S in their respective market segments.

But how much do you think those numbers are skewed by the severely limited choice of luxury BEV? People deciding on a luxury ICE have a lot of choice in the market, so sales will inevitably be split between the various manufacturers' products. Up until now anyone in the market for a luxury BEV has to buy a Tesla. The big question is what will happen to sales numbers when there are direct competitor BEVs to choose from. I think it's almost inevitable that Tesla sales will fall (at least relative to what they would have done without any direct competition) but fortunately the EV market is growing rapidly as a whole and most new EV buyers will be taking sales away from ICE competitors, so total EV sales will be on the increase over the next decade.

I honestly think the average Euro buyer would prefer to buy a European luxury BEV over a Tesla, but obviously up until now that has simply not been an option and Tesla have therefore totally dominated the luxury BEV market for those people who seriously wanted to go electric at whatever risk and compromise. It's true that many Tesla owners who took that risk now view Tesla as a serious contender (I certainly do), but pretty much every BMW, Audi, Merc, Porsche owner I know is waiting for an EV from those same manufacturers because of their perceived quality and experience in the industry. But as a twist, most of these guys are middle aged conservatives who have been driving their favourite German cars for decades. In the school playground (our future car buyers) Tesla is about as cool as cars get right now! They are right up there with Ferraris and Lambos for attention. I can only begin to imagine what it would be like rocking up to school in the new Roadster!
 
Supercharging stations are Tesla's biggest asset and any new EV coming into the market has to be able to have that kind of network, even more so if their battery tech is not as advanced as Tesla.

Lucid just had a billion $ injection from the Saudi fund, would be interesting to see what they can do with that cash - still won't be able to compete with Tesla in the immediate future, but...
 
I rarely need to use Supercharging, but it was still a big factor in choosing a Tesla over a PHEV or ICE. About 95% of my driving is relatively short distance comfortably inside the range of a Tesla battery, but those few long haul trips are critical to our enjoyment of the car i.e. family trips away. Having that kind of versatility (even if not used on a daily or even weekly basis) was pretty important for us when choosing our main family car. But we could easily live with a second large battery EV without any long haul charging capability at all.

I don't doubt Supercharging is a big factor for many people. It is also no surprise that such a group of people would be found amongst a Tesla owner's club - certainly a lot of Tesla owners chose the car based on this great feature. It will help make Model 3 a success, which it will be.

But so far this big-battery-BEV vs. a Supercharging-big-battery-BEV hasn't really been tested on the market, though (beyond Tesla's own early days, which supported my thinking though). I guess the Audi e-tron quattro will be the first real test - I-Pace volumes are fairly low - whether or not my point stands. If Audi can't sell the car, that would certainly be telling.

My thesis is simple: a large battery BEV even without any long-distance charging network will be a compelling product for certain (another) group of people - and not an insignificant group of people at that. My thinking is that the relatively limited charging networks for the likes of e-tron and I-Pace won't stop them from selling as many as they can make, because of this group of people.

Once you have a car that is always filled-up and ready for your daily life during sleeping (or working), that is a very interesting product for those whose daily life centers around a particular area. Many people have second or third cars that can handle the occasional long-distance too, as you point out, and some just don't need the feature at all.

Eventually those networks are needed of course to penetrate the full market (and even Tesla needs to solve the charging speed), even in my thesis, but not necessarily immediately.

We shall see if I'm wrong, of course. :)
 
But how much do you think those numbers are skewed by the severely limited choice of luxury BEV? People deciding on a luxury ICE have a lot of choice in the market, so sales will inevitably be split between the various manufacturers' products. Up until now anyone in the market for a luxury BEV has to buy a Tesla. The big question is what will happen to sales numbers when there are direct competitor BEVs to choose from. I think it's almost inevitable that Tesla sales will fall (at least relative to what they would have done without any direct competition) but fortunately the EV market is growing rapidly as a whole and most new EV buyers will be taking sales away from ICE competitors, so total EV sales will be on the increase over the next decade.

I honestly think the average Euro buyer would prefer to buy a European luxury BEV over a Tesla, but obviously up until now that has simply not been an option and Tesla have therefore totally dominated the luxury BEV market for those people who seriously wanted to go electric at whatever risk and compromise. It's true that many Tesla owners who took that risk now view Tesla as a serious contender (I certainly do), but pretty much every BMW, Audi, Merc, Porsche owner I know is waiting for an EV from those same manufacturers because of their perceived quality and experience in the industry. But as a twist, most of these guys are middle aged conservatives who have been driving their favourite German cars for decades. In the school playground (our future car buyers) Tesla is about as cool as cars get right now! They are right up there with Ferraris and Lambos for attention. I can only begin to imagine what it would be like rocking up to school in the new Roadster!
I have been thinking a lot about this too. There has got to be some skewing like you say, because Tesla is the only luxury EV out there. But how many people are in fact looking specifically for a luxury EV? and how many people buy Tesla not because it is an EV, but just because they perceive it as the best car there is? The "Tesla killers" can per definition not win these "best car" buyers since "Tesla killers" need to be watered down relative to their gasoline siblings as not to cannibalize the profitable core business. Being European myself I understand what you are saying about them rather buying German luxury brands and so on, but don't underestimate the allure of American products in Europe. Europeans love everything American and are getting more americanized by the day, even culture and language (they have adopted a lot of American words lately, especially in tech and business circles). Tesla is a very strong brand over there. Big 2.5 are not popular anymore for some reason, you only see the occasional Corvette and Ford Focus nowadays, that's it.
I've also noticed that middle aged conservatives generally stay with incumbent luxury car brands and Tesla is more popular with the younger crowd. Should bode well for the future and will help build the perfect storm.
If there is a skewing effect as you said, let's hope that the EV demand share grows faster than Tesla and the Tesla killers can scale up, so Tesla can keep growing fast. It seems almost inevitable at this point.
 
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