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Wife's new car = ICE thanks to FRT

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Do people of Hong Kong like hybrids? 40-50% less emissions with very small battery packs seems quite effective to me. The gas prices in Hong Kong is pretty high. A hybrid should pay off quickly, no? With the high gas prices, it seems the ICE drivers are paying a big tax for the gasoline they use.

Unfortunately, EVs with big battery packs is not a scalable solution for the world. The world doesn't have enough batteries or resources/mines to convert the ~90M cars sold every year to pure EVs. That also requires massive charging infrastructure.
With one 60 KWh battery pack for a Model S60, 40 hybrids can be produced, each cutting emissions by 40-50%.
With the batteries for 500k M3, we could have 20M hybrids made each year around the world without worrying about charging infrastructure, range anxiety or time to recharge. The range on some of these hybrids is impressive (~700miles with a tank of gas.) .
Above all, no one needs to wonder where the electricity comes from. It's a straight 40-50% reduction in emissions.

There was also a recent study published, that claimed production of long range EVs itself causes lots of CO2 emissions. The emission analysis over entire life cycle of EVs can get very interesting.
New Study: Large CO2 Emissions From Batteries Of Electric Cars | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

Hopefully, Hong Kong will promote hybrids and plug-in hybrids, which are better, scalable solutions in cutting emissions.

Just checked the Hong Kong grid. it looks like Hong Kong is using 53% coal. So, in effect, BEVs could be worse in Hong Kong for CO2 emissions ? Is this data obsolete?
Electricity sector in Hong Kong - Wikipedia

You've hit on a very good point on the battery / lithium supply.

There is not going to be enough lithium battery as of today, if Tesla is going to achieve 500k unit sales next year. This is also the reason why Tesla is building the Gigafactory, which is just barely enough to supply Tesla's own EV needs. Please bear in mind that this one factory at its full designed capacity is doubling the global battery supply already.

So in reality, the short answer is that EV or hybrid is unlikely to capture a material market share in the near future, save for Tesla with a readied supply of battery from its Gigafactory.

Another reason that the hybrid may not work for the consumers (in HK and elsewhere) is the battery and related component cost - apart from the premium over the comparable models, I understand that for the Prius sold in HK, a replacement battery pack would cost almost 1/3 of the car's price, and similarly for Porsche or Mercedes hybrid's replacement battery, it's pricey enough to buy half of a Prius should they broke down. So in short, the fuel saving is too marginal in HK to offset any pricing premium and maintenance / repair cost.
 
Do people of Hong Kong like hybrids? 40-50% less emissions with very small battery packs seems quite effective to me. The gas prices in Hong Kong is pretty high. A hybrid should pay off quickly, no? With the high gas prices, it seems the ICE drivers are paying a big tax for the gasoline they use.

Unfortunately, EVs with big battery packs is not a scalable solution for the world. The world doesn't have enough batteries or resources/mines to convert the ~90M cars sold every year to pure EVs. That also requires massive charging infrastructure.
With one 60 KWh battery pack for a Model S60, 40 hybrids can be produced, each cutting emissions by 40-50%.
With the batteries for 500k M3, we could have 20M hybrids made each year around the world without worrying about charging infrastructure, range anxiety or time to recharge. The range on some of these hybrids is impressive (~700miles with a tank of gas.) .
Above all, no one needs to wonder where the electricity comes from. It's a straight 40-50% reduction in emissions.

There was also a recent study published, that claimed production of long range EVs itself causes lots of CO2 emissions. The emission analysis over entire life cycle of EVs can get very interesting.
New Study: Large CO2 Emissions From Batteries Of Electric Cars | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

Hopefully, Hong Kong will promote hybrids and plug-in hybrids, which are better, scalable solutions in cutting emissions.

Just checked the Hong Kong grid. it looks like Hong Kong is using 53% coal. So, in effect, BEVs could be worse in Hong Kong for CO2 emissions ? Is this data obsolete?
Electricity sector in Hong Kong - Wikipedia

Plug-in hybrids really don't work in HK. I've nothing against the technology, but with the charging issues here they just rarely get plugged in.

That study? Seriously. Ridiculous:

That Tesla Battery Emissions Study Making the Rounds? It's Bunk.

I'd rather get my data from reputable sources who know what they are talking about (like UCS, EPA, etc).

I disagree on the scalability. Raw materials for the batteries are not the issue there; more an issue of availability of different EV models to address the entire transportation sector.

Do you really think we'll be driving new petrol/diesel cars (or even hybrids) in 20 years time?
 
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only EV has the sustainable future. Upon the Tesla gigafactory or manufacturing line built in China, EV will lead the market.
let's continue support EV that will eventually drive the need of technology change as well as battery innovations.
Solar + battery + EV = sustainable future.
 
I'd rather get my data from reputable sources who know what they are talking about (like UCS, EPA, etc).


It's ridiculous to have to even say this, but the U.S.gov under Trump is a whole different world. The EPA is now headed by Scott Pruitt, friend of the environment....NOT. I apologise as I'm on mobile so thisyou may want to Google to fact check, but basically we have a climate change denier funded by oil money witha track record of suing the EPA numerous times now heading it with the objective of dismantling the agency. But I digress.

I guess my point is that, (agreeing with your original point) regarding sustainability and feasibility of EVs, there is a massive campaign of lobbying/dis information to sway both policies and public opinion, and we need to be careful fact checking sources that were once reliable

The Koch brothers alone have spent literally billions on campaigns spreading fake news against EVs, just imagine if that money was spread on betterment of humanity...
 
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So been a few days since we picked up the ICE and I had to drive it for 3 days while coincidentally my Model S was in for the 60,000kms service (plus power steering suddenly went off and then back on after reboot last Friday; turns out a fuse was loose...).... almost got t boned at a round about when I stepped on the gas pedal and nothing happened for 1 second while it looked for a gear...... definitely something to readjust from driving instant power EVs.... Managed about 19 miles per gallon LOL

In praise of the ICE though... what the heck did Tesla do with space occupied by the exterior dimensions? The Discover Sport is a smaller car exterior wise but its interior is much roomier than the Model S (my 2 full sized car seats plus wife sitting in the middle is really cramped in the Model S and have to remove one of the car seats so my wife can get to the middle seat). I realize our Model S doors are like almost a foot thick?? It's definitely smaller than a Model X but with the same 7 seats deployed, the ICE seems roomier....
 
the model S interior has a lot left to be desired to be honest, e.g. the whole minimalistic design looks very pleasant for some but for daily driving my car turns into a clutterfxxk of water bottles, towels, phones, spare batterys, small bags, book, tablet, shopping strewn all over the car. but i digress.

did you know that inside those massive bulges on the inside of the doors next to your leg are just EMPTY SPACE?? what happened to having a convenient pocket storage like every other car? that bulge is comically big and even for me at 5'9 it's still noticable. so for those at 6ft or taller that'd be even more uncomfortable.

i'd imagine the discrepany between the full width of the car, and how much space you get in the cabin, is partly to do with providing a good buffer from the exterior to the cabin for passenger safety. E.G. when one's getting T-boned, you want to minimise cabin intrusion AND lateral g-force. having some distance from the passenger's body to the car's side door provides some more room to do that by allowing "some" crumple zone without intrusion. it's hard to argue with safety precautions i guess, since this distance is a physical limitation that's always good to have regardless of technological advancement.

but i still wish the car was a bit narrower (model 3 would be narrower overall), and i really miss door pockets.

*as a side note, i've briefly driven a Honda Edix before... it's smaller than a model S, and it seats 6 in two rows of 3, plus rear trunk space. that design is hilariously bad, true be told, but if you look at how they adjust the ergonomic design to cater 3 people in one row, there're some clever bits thrown in, and i wish tesla could take a page from them
 
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I paid HK$680k for Model S 70D in October 2015. A similarly spec Telsar would now cost over HK$1.1m. At 680k it seemed like a bargain as it was roughly the cost of a bottom of the range E class and when you consider the guaranteed buy back price and lower running costs - it was cheaper to own than a new 3 series.

Now that car is going head to head with Mercedes CLS or S class. Now, performance aside, it is a vastly INFERIOR product especially when you look at the luxury, build quality and general quality of materials used.

I won't buy a Tesla again - not because its electric (that is the best part about it) - but because it is by far the worst car I have ever owned in terms of build quality. They really need to up their game and focus more on quality and less on outright performance and gadgets. It won't be long before BMW, Audi, Mercedes etc will be offering full electric vehicles with comparable range for similar prices - and when they do, it will not even be close.
 
They really need to up their game and focus more on quality and less on outright performance and gadgets. It won't be long before BMW, Audi, Mercedes etc will be offering full electric vehicles with comparable range for similar prices - and when they do, it will not even be close.

100% agree. Tesla have a huge lead on the powertrain at the moment, but if they don't improve reliability, and quality, they're gonna die when the others catch up. Remember blackberry? Nokia?
 
Since I traded in my “classic” MS and took delivery of a 2017 MS recently, just would like to share some first-hand observations on the often debated topic of Tesla vehicle quality vs. the more established players.

Based on most objective measures, MS / MX quality gaps aren’t as far apart as people would think when compared to others:
  • NVH – I haven’t driven any V12 cars, but MS or MX sure beats any ICEs even with a silky v8 (even the Lexus v8 is not even close ), there is no debate here and Tesla excels, also no shakes whatsoever with any body panels. Obviously, driving or aural enjoyment is quite subjective…
  • Materials – on par if not better than most comparable vehicles for a given price. For example, the leather used to upholster the car is finer and softer than %&*@ leather others offered without paying a premium to upgrade. I believe that even in a “basic” Merc S class, the standard leather trim is more coarse than Tesla’s. the standard buttons are transplanted from Merc E class, these are on-par with Merc. And how many other cars have an Alcantara trimmed roof liner and dashboard. Apart from exotic 2 doors sports cars, this isn’t that common without costing an arm or a leg
  • Craftsmanship – this is where Tesla falls short. Sometimes that panel gaps are horrible by luxury cars standard, rubber trims are poorly fitted, paint quality is ok to bad… but I’ve to say that Tesla has improved significantly in the last 3-4 years; for example, the doors are now closed with a satisfactory “chink”
  • Design features – this is rather subjective, but I think Tesla has a certain minimalism design philosophy and doesn’t have the engineering resource to complete remodel their interior yet. If you want buttons overload, go for Pana, and do you really need auto pop-out seat buckle (S class) or kids friendly spider web design in your ashtray (XC90). Yes please for me… though I think it’s a matter of time and a couple design refresh cycles to go for MS
  • Performance – off the chart. Elon doesn’t build slow cars and we are talking about the slowest MS being quicker than the fastest non-M BMW 5 series
In short, yes I would tend to agree that my MS isn’t quite a Lexus or Merc liked on the above measures, but it’s not as far as people would tend to think. Tesla clearly needs to up their games, but I wouldn’t write them off yet based on built quality and they aren’t too bad to be honest.

On the other hand, the ICEs clearly don’t lack the engineering resources to compete in the EV field, but they do lack the will and infrastructure.

Remember that people talked about Tesla being overwhelmed by EV competitors from the more established players 3 years ago, and where are they now? For example, the gorgeous Porsche Mission E was showcase back in 2015, back then you can also order an Audi R8 e-tron or Merc B Class EV… these are all defunct. I dare to make a prediction that more than half of the EVs planned from the traditional players would be dead on arrival. This doesn’t mean they’re not good products, but there is no institutional incentive to make them successful (think about all the engineers, metal foundries and gearbox workers which are going to put out of work if EVs are successful).
 
sales cannabalisation is exactly why the major auto manufacturers drag their feet regarding EV. The reason why all the electric series from them look goofy isn't really because they think people that buy them WANT them to look goofy as shite, but rather that if the BMW i3 looked like a slightly smaller 3 series, they'd be directly pushing more people towards EVs instead of selling them a 3 series.

But you still sold them a car right? from your brand? no, and that's because

(think about all the engineers, metal foundries and gearbox workers which are going to put out of work if EVs are successful).

the big players are able to outsource a big part of their car assembly parts to OEM (and they do). the things they keep closest to their chest, their "heart and soul", is the engine and transmission (along with software to deal with handling/ feel/ traction control, etc). ICE are something they have decades of expertise on, and are what they're good at competing in.

what's an EV? a souped up electric motor that's simple enough for high school people to reproduce, along with super sophisticated batteries. put the on some wheels with inch wide panel gaps and call it a car. The batteries are relatively simple to produce once you've figured out the proportion of minerals used, but those are the highest commercial secrets that car manufacturers have ZERO advantage over another venture capital fund with money to dive into the industry. so as a big auto with EVs, where's your unique selling point? your signature engine roar? your amazing transmission and rev matching this and that? (Audi literally means "listen" as well, i'm curious how much 'engine noise' they're gonna "pipe" into the car when they're EV)

that's why you see aggressive mainland businesses being all over EV manufacturing for the past couple years - Tesla's proven it can be done and is popular, now all you need is an OEM battery supplier to provide batteries good enough for your car to go far enough... outsource that "heart and soul" like the generic part they treat it as, and focus on the lifestyle aspect of a cool, quiet, stylish, responsive EV. Almost like when Android became a thing, you make money by building a sea of phones to flood the market, all using a core OS that you put your own brand's malware/ fluff/ flavour on.

if anyone is interested and are not aware, Faraday Future is another "Tesla killer" that i've been following since the beginning. it's gone all tits up but you could smell it from a mile away. Their funding came from Jia Yu Ting, the boss of China's LeTV who's just been dethroned.
 
But you still sold them a car right? from your brand? no, and that's because



the big players are able to outsource a big part of their car assembly parts to OEM (and they do). the things they keep closest to their chest, their "heart and soul", is the engine and transmission (along with software to deal with handling/ feel/ traction control, etc). ICE are something they have decades of expertise on, and are what they're good at competing in.

This. I would also add the following:
1) Think of all the stealer-ship franchises that have their mechanics and garages idle with a revenue stream that dries up.
2) If you've driven a mid range or higher European or American car in the last several years, there's a high chance the transmission was from ZF
3) Even drive-critical software you think is from the manufacture may have been co-developed externally and licensed under a commercial name (ie: BMW Dynamic Stablity Contol and MB Electronic Stability Program have been created with BOSCH hardware and software).
4) Prolliferation of EV's and autonomy will lead to higher milage (or even lack of total car ownership) becoming the new norm, decreasing rates of sales turn for new vehicles. (if you didn't drive or own your own vehicle but could still have the convenience of one nearly anytime you wanted with much less cost it becomes an applicance and you might be less inclined to care about the "heart" or the sound of the car).

if anyone is interested and are not aware, Faraday Future is another "Tesla killer" that i've been following since the beginning. it's gone all tits up but you could smell it from a mile away. Their funding came from Jia Yu Ting, the boss of China's LeTV who's just been dethroned.

235mph on a track or a new best time up pikes peak is impressive on their hollowed out motors on wheels.
but sadly isn't worth too much to consumers if your billion dollar factory is cancelled.
at best they switch to a small time boutique setup but that is still neither on schedule or high volume
gg, FF
 
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at the risk of derailing the thread, there're a few things current/future EV manufacturers can learn from the whole Faraday Future fiasco

235mph on a track or a new best time up pikes peak is impressive on their hollowed out motors on wheels.
but sadly isn't worth too much to consumers if your billion dollar factory is cancelled.
at best they switch to a small time boutique setup but that is still neither on schedule or high volume
gg, FF

just to point out a few things for our fellow readers to digest:
1) 235mph up pikes peak is very impressive indeed, 11:25.082 time (even with a "stop the car and cycle it to continue" stint included). The issue was that FF claimed it a 'production car'. a car NOT in production, a car not anywhere near what a production car is. instead, it's a fully hollowed out shell on wheels indeed
1.1) some people have taken their tesla model S on the track and find that the battery protection [limited power mode] comes in at approximately 10 mins time, so doing a full on pikes peak without the batteries going into protection mode may be a good next-step for "performance" EVs to aim for. it's just not necessary for an everyday car tho.
2) have you SEEN how FF launched their car? The car came on stage on its own from an outside carpark and parked there right at centre stage, under the nice massive event tent with enthusiastic vibe and full of anticipation. A little Elon-style, 'let the product speak for itself'-way of presentation brought quite a bit of charm when you know the product is an upcoming EV. When it's time for the car to demonstrate its autonomous ability to leave the stage... it didn't move. Que a good 10-15 seconds of awkward silence before the presenter carried on talking about other features, which everyone wanted to know as well. Here's the kicker: after a few mins of talking about features, the earphone-wearing presenter mentioned, almost out of the blue, that maybe the car is 'a little shy' and he'd like to dim the lights to see if it helps get it moving (lolwut?). The hall then proceeded to dim to almost pitch black, another good 10 seconds after which the car proceeded to start moving on its own, and drove off stage to thunderous applause. What's the catch there? Modern cameras can easily crank the ISO to see a staff in a black t shirt sneaking into the car after the lights have dimmed... which is quite clearly shown in this 10 min video
now why is that scary? we do expect a plethora of new EVs coming up and some new entrants would be sketchy and eventually fail, right? FF is bascially equipped with the largest funding with the highest profile deals made outside of incumbent auto-manufacturer. We're talking USD 330 million incentive from Nevada, and a plan to build a USE 1 Billion factory scrapped YESTERDAY. Not the mention FF were the ones in the a 3-way tug of war with Tesla and Apple recruiting the top talent. Tesla has mentioned before that all those that went to Apple were not their top guys (some news suggested otherwise), but FF poached some top guys directly from Tesla. We're talking the No.1 new contender, the next large scale EV manufacturer-hopeful here.

i guess my point is that, having EV-related things like this happening is counter-productive to changing public opinion/ consumer habits/ policy. it plays right into ICE/ oil money's hands. One little inaccurate fact/ sleight of hand you get caught with would undo a million real, good things that EVs can bring - so it also comes back to us i guess, since most of us have/will have people talking about EVs, many of which may have unknowingly been influenced by Koch money campaigns (it penetrates society more than we think). it's unrealistic for all of us to see a picture of a copper mine wrongly labelled as a lithium mine and point it out, but just making sure we're able to discuss what we know (long term costs/ environmental impact accurately) would help make a difference.
 
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Model S still quickest PRODUCTION car to climb Pikes Peak, as you pointed out. P90D 2016
Will someone bother to try P100D?

Could/would Hong Kong implement a program to convert all ICE businesses (dealers, repair shops, gas stations) to EV?
Lead the disruption? That would be interesting to watch.

I suspect EV makers will concentrate on body designs (maybe some interior style) to distinguish from others. Battery cost/supply will be main constraints.
 
at the risk of derailing the thread, there're a few things current/future EV manufacturers can learn from the whole Faraday Future fiasco



just to point out a few things for our fellow readers to digest:
1) 235mph up pikes peak is very impressive indeed, 11:25.082 time (even with a "stop the car and cycle it to continue" stint included). The issue was that FF claimed it a 'production car'. a car NOT in production, a car not anywhere near what a production car is. instead, it's a fully hollowed out shell on wheels indeed
1.1) some people have taken their tesla model S on the track and find that the battery protection [limited power mode] comes in at approximately 10 mins time, so doing a full on pikes peak without the batteries going into protection mode may be a good next-step for "performance" EVs to aim for. it's just not necessary for an everyday car tho.
2) have you SEEN how FF launched their car? The car came on stage on its own from an outside carpark and parked there right at centre stage, under the nice massive event tent with enthusiastic vibe and full of anticipation. A little Elon-style, 'let the product speak for itself'-way of presentation brought quite a bit of charm when you know the product is an upcoming EV. When it's time for the car to demonstrate its autonomous ability to leave the stage... it didn't move. Que a good 10-15 seconds of awkward silence before the presenter carried on talking about other features, which everyone wanted to know as well. Here's the kicker: after a few mins of talking about features, the earphone-wearing presenter mentioned, almost out of the blue, that maybe the car is 'a little shy' and he'd like to dim the lights to see if it helps get it moving (lolwut?). The hall then proceeded to dim to almost pitch black, another good 10 seconds after which the car proceeded to start moving on its own, and drove off stage to thunderous applause. What's the catch there? Modern cameras can easily crank the ISO to see a staff in a black t shirt sneaking into the car after the lights have dimmed... which is quite clearly shown in this 10 min video
now why is that scary? we do expect a plethora of new EVs coming up and some new entrants would be sketchy and eventually fail, right? FF is bascially equipped with the largest funding with the highest profile deals made outside of incumbent auto-manufacturer. We're talking USD 330 million incentive from Nevada, and a plan to build a USE 1 Billion factory scrapped YESTERDAY. Not the mention FF were the ones in the a 3-way tug of war with Tesla and Apple recruiting the top talent. Tesla has mentioned before that all those that went to Apple were not their top guys (some news suggested otherwise), but FF poached some top guys directly from Tesla. We're talking the No.1 new contender, the next large scale EV manufacturer-hopeful here.

i guess my point is that, having EV-related things like this happening is counter-productive to changing public opinion/ consumer habits/ policy. it plays right into ICE/ oil money's hands. One little inaccurate fact/ sleight of hand you get caught with would undo a million real, good things that EVs can bring - so it also comes back to us i guess, since most of us have/will have people talking about EVs, many of which may have unknowingly been influenced by Koch money campaigns (it penetrates society more than we think). it's unrealistic for all of us to see a picture of a copper mine wrongly labelled as a lithium mine and point it out, but just making sure we're able to discuss what we know (long term costs/ environmental impact accurately) would help make a difference.




ROFL when they dimmed the lights, maybe they had 10 guys in black-out suits run up the stage and pushed the car off? hahahaaha
 
Hong Kong claimed to eliminate the favorable tax treatment, because there are already too many cars on the roads. It will not reduce the cars on the road, but only exchange a gas/diesel car for a excluded electric one.

Kong Kong has been agressive in getting rid of their diesel busses due to pollution. All the new ones are CNG or electric.

2nd point. A Land Rover will have more interior space because it is essentially a square box. Their aerodynamics are horrible, and fuel economy is among the worst. That interior space comes at a large environmental cost.

Electric transportation is the only solution possible for highly congested Urban areas.
 
1) 235mph up pikes peak is very impressive indeed, 11:25.082 time (even with a "stop the car and cycle it to continue" stint included). The issue was that FF claimed it a 'production car'. a car NOT in production, a car not anywhere near what a production car is. instead, it's a fully hollowed out shell on wheels indeed

Worth clarifying that the 235mph and the new EV PP time were two different times/ places. (ie: not 235mph up PP).
While FF, does have a few cars with actual interiors, both feats (including a drag race vs. a model S) were accomplished using a "car" with essentially no interior and tin seats and having more in common (structurally) with a top fuel dragster rather than a consumer automotive product.)

now why is that scary? we do expect a plethora of new EVs coming up and some new entrants would be sketchy and eventually fail, right? FF is bascially equipped with the largest funding with the highest profile deals made outside of incumbent auto-manufacturer. We're talking USD 330 million incentive from Nevada, and a plan to build a USE 1 Billion factory scrapped YESTERDAY. Not the mention FF were the ones in the a 3-way tug of war with Tesla and Apple recruiting the top talent. Tesla has mentioned before that all those that went to Apple were not their top guys (some news suggested otherwise), but FF poached some top guys directly from Tesla. We're talking the No.1 new contender, the next large scale EV manufacturer-hopeful here.

i guess my point is that, having EV-related things like this happening is counter-productive to changing public opinion/ consumer habits/ policy. it plays right into ICE/ oil money's hands.

FF was super sketchy to begin with. essentially vapourware trying to emualate the Tesla story.
Nevada doesn't loose out too much as their incentives were dependant on FF hitting certain milestones along the way instead of all in one shot. What the state really loses on are the jobs that were promised that won't ever come.
Poaching talent is fine, if the FF factory or brand never materializes then the talent can just continue looking for jobs at Apple or Tesla or some other tech/ auto company.
While its unfortunate it looks like it will never play out for them the lasting damage is as you say, bad PR in general for the EV cause.

2nd point. A Land Rover will have more interior space because it is essentially a square box. Their aerodynamics are horrible, and fuel economy is among the worst. That interior space comes at a large environmental cost.

(Any) Space is at a premium in Hong Kong. Look at how much the parking spaces cost.
Those who hire personal drivers ride in a boxy Japan-o-van-living-rooms-on-wheels to maximize the amount of space they can take up on the road from the plebs.
 
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Kong Kong has been agressive in getting rid of their diesel busses due to pollution. All the new ones are CNG or electric.

Um,no. So far, just a handful of electric buses on the roads here, and all trials have run into 'quality and reliability' issues. There seems little support amongst the established franchised bus service operators for the switch to electric.
 
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