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Will a Model 3 SR+ last 20 years driving on average 15,000 km/year?
- Thread starter Ruffus23
- Start date
Tam
Well-Known Member
That depends on the specifications of the battery.
Usually, Tesla knows a life cycle of a component so it can cover its warranty cost and repairs.
For example, Tesla cited that the eMMC flash memory in its MCU is rated for 3,000 cycles at 1.4 cycles per day and it should last for 5 to 6 years.
I dont believe any car "lasts 20 years" without "parts of the car breaking down". I wouldnt expect this one, or any other to do that.
Ok, but even then:
1. It hasnt been 20 years yet.
2. You are not saying if you have ever had to get anything repaired at all.
A few repairs here and there. Not enough to retire the car though. Assuming with an M3 it will be the same unless rust or major structural issues occur.
Maybe poll/question need some fine tuning.
I would expect something similar from a model 3 in this regard "a few repairs here and there, not enough to retire the car", with the additional qualifier that it would be likely that the "max range" would likely be something like 60-70% of when new. For most people that would probably still be fine as a commuter car etc, which is what most 20 year old cars are.
I would imagine that some cars batteries would need to be replaced (just like some cars have to have engines replaced) during that time, but fewer batteries replaced than engines replaced for vehicles that age. Thats all me speculating though.
A 20 year old car is a 20 year old car. Since this one would have fewer major parts that could theoretically give a problem (like transmissions etc), its "more likely" to last a while, but many cars are not retired because the engine doesnt work, they are retired because of other issues that people dont want to fix because the car is not worth anything.
In that regard, this car is nothing special, imo. a 20 year old model 3 wont be worth significantly more than a 20 year old altima with the exception that the battery in a 20 year old model 3 might be worth more than a 20 year old altima, for people wanting to use the battery for home storage projects etc.
Yapa Drive
Member
My expectations of cars have changed over the last 15 years. Cars have become computers with 4 wheels. I used to keep cars until the wheels fell off. With technology changes though that is no longer realistic. Vehicle improvement at least with Tesla is constant. I didn't often buy new cars, preferring to buy certified pre-owned to avoid new car depreciation. That isn't a major factor today. I prefer current safety & electronic systems. Since I update phones & computers I plan to do the same for cars, especially since EV's are changing so rapidly. With battery degradation an expected & planned occurrence I'll get a second EV in a couple of years & trade out the M3 a couple of years after that. A final reason is a desire to switch from using ICE as daily drivers. EV's are just easier, cheaper & make more environmental sense. Cars are going to break over a long period of time & I'm a little concerned about maintenance & long term parts availability of electronic parts. Battery replacement of any electronic device is an expectation after several years. I'd rather someone else had that problem with the M3. So far though the only thing replaced on the M3 is the cabin air filters & the tires. That's really low maintenance costs.
With Tesla's track record of battery management, I think the battery itself should last 20 years. But what about all the other electronic components and chips? There's speculation that Tesla isn't using tested vehicle grade chips to get around the current chip shortage. So it's possible that we'll see a lot of model 3s with broken electronics down the road as they get old.
A major factor in how long the model 3 will last is availability of parts and servicing. When a used model 3 is only worth $8000 some day, and a battery pack or drive motor replacement is $4000-12000, then any model 3 with battery/motor issues will just be scrapped. But if there's aftermarket availability for items like that in the $1000-3000 range, you might see model 3s stay on the road for a long time to come.
With so many new EVs coming in the next decade, I'd be shocked if used Model 3 prices don't just drop like a rock in another 9-10 years. If the battery pack itself is worth a good sum as home energy storage, maybe that'll cause a lot of Model 3s to be scrapped before they're unfit for the road.
A major factor in how long the model 3 will last is availability of parts and servicing. When a used model 3 is only worth $8000 some day, and a battery pack or drive motor replacement is $4000-12000, then any model 3 with battery/motor issues will just be scrapped. But if there's aftermarket availability for items like that in the $1000-3000 range, you might see model 3s stay on the road for a long time to come.
With so many new EVs coming in the next decade, I'd be shocked if used Model 3 prices don't just drop like a rock in another 9-10 years. If the battery pack itself is worth a good sum as home energy storage, maybe that'll cause a lot of Model 3s to be scrapped before they're unfit for the road.
Scrap metal for the batteries alone will be worth several thousand bucks.
roblab
Active Member
Just realize that the battery will degrade roughly 5% the first year, then +/-1% or so the second, etc. 20 years would definitely be showing loss of charge. I wouldn't be surprised that you'd need a new battery down the road, so to speak. I believe the warranty is about eight years, as I recall.
RayK
Active Member
My previous car, a 2000 BMW 323i, lasted 18 years and just over 193,000 miles on the original engine, clutch and suspension. Powertrain was pretty good; the electrics and interior mechanicals, not so much. Replaced 5 (6?) window regulators, two blowers (fan motors, not a supercharger), flex disk, couple of control arm bushings, sunroof cassette, window washer pump and numerous other bits-and-pieces over the years. Nothing that caused me to consider whether or not to dump the car, except at the very end when it was sitting for a year after getting my 3 and I found that the dashboard had stopped working. I think it was a fairly easy fix if I was willing to do the work myself, but I had no need to hang onto the
I hope the Tesla lasts as long as the Bimmer. I'll be 80 then. I think I'd be fine with doing one battery replacement over that duration, depending upon the cost at the time, and of course, if I really need the car (read: I'm still able to safely drive).
I hope the Tesla lasts as long as the Bimmer. I'll be 80 then. I think I'd be fine with doing one battery replacement over that duration, depending upon the cost at the time, and of course, if I really need the car (read: I'm still able to safely drive).
Candleflame
Active Member
it wont last 20 years. mode3 already has 10-15% degradation after just a couple of years.
CapeOne
Active Member
Given that the average age of cars on the road today in the U.S. is around 12 years, it's not unreasonable to expect a car to last 20 years with proper care and maintenance. Yes, the M3 will almost certainly need a battery replacement and service/repairs here and there but 20 years is doable. It's not unusual to see various 2002 (and older) makes and models still being used as daily drivers today, likely on their third or fourth owner.
Msjulie
Active Member
1995 Toyota Tacoma truck, still running. Needed basic things, shocks, battery. Probably coolant hoses but we got it well into the 120k mile zone and figured that had happened
My dads Audi TT Roadster, 2001 (not exactly a paragon of reliability) is actually running fine. The not-awsome-at-new display has some missing pixels in some areas and the rear wind screen is now jammed a bit, stuff like that but the engine and trans are strong with admittedly low miles for the age.
My guess for the 3 would be battery degradation but I'll bet 3rd party replacements will eventually show up if you want to keep your older PC on wheels that long
My dads Audi TT Roadster, 2001 (not exactly a paragon of reliability) is actually running fine. The not-awsome-at-new display has some missing pixels in some areas and the rear wind screen is now jammed a bit, stuff like that but the engine and trans are strong with admittedly low miles for the age.
My guess for the 3 would be battery degradation but I'll bet 3rd party replacements will eventually show up if you want to keep your older PC on wheels that long
Lack of moving parts is a biggie. Used parts/electrical components will likely become cheap over the next decade or so which will keep these things running on the road.1995 Toyota Tacoma truck, still running. Needed basic things, shocks, battery. Probably coolant hoses but we got it well into the 120k mile zone and figured that had happened
My dads Audi TT Roadster, 2001 (not exactly a paragon of reliability) is actually running fine. The not-awsome-at-new display has some missing pixels in some areas and the rear wind screen is now jammed a bit, stuff like that but the engine and trans are strong with admittedly low miles for the age.
My guess for the 3 would be battery degradation but I'll bet 3rd party replacements will eventually show up if you want to keep your older PC on wheels that long
The more and more i think of it, this will likely require a battery swap out and that is it.
roblab
Active Member
Batteries USED TO BE warrantied for about eight years, don't know about present ones, so it seems that 20 years may be a little optimistic. As there aren't any Teslas out there that are 20 years old, maybe you can be the one who tests this parameter.
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