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Will a Model 3 SR+ last 20 years driving on average 15,000 km/year?

Will a Model 3 SR+ last 20 years averaging 15,000 km/year?

  • Yes it will last 20 years. No battery replacement will be needed

    Votes: 15 23.8%
  • Yes it will last 20 years but 1 battery replacement

    Votes: 26 41.3%
  • No - other parts of the car will break down

    Votes: 22 34.9%

  • Total voters
    63

jjrandorin

Moderator, Model 3, Tesla Energy Forums
Nov 28, 2018
11,562
13,482
Riverside Co. CA
Batteries USED TO BE warrantied for about eight years, don't know about present ones, so it seems that 20 years may be a little optimistic. As there aren't any Teslas out there that are 20 years old, maybe you can be the one who tests this parameter.

The battery warranty is for 70% at 8 years or 100k / 125k miles depending on model. The OP was originally asking about 20 years or 200k miles. while a battery may be at even 50% capacity in that time, that wouldnt make the car not drivable.
 
Batteries USED TO BE warrantied for about eight years, don't know about present ones, so it seems that 20 years may be a little optimistic. As there aren't any Teslas out there that are 20 years old, maybe you can be the one who tests this parameter.
Most Toyota’s are good for 20 years.
The battery warranty is for 70% at 8 years or 100k / 125k miles depending on model. The OP was originally asking about 20 years or 200k miles. while a battery may be at even 50% capacity in that time, that wouldnt make the car not drivable.
I suspect the battery degradation curve will go up substantially at some point. Kind of unknown at this time though. Huge revenue stream for Tesla as some point though.
 
Last edited:

BigNick

Infamous Fat Sweaty Guy
Dec 3, 2017
1,461
1,696
Pennsylvania, USA
There is no way to know for sure. Right now, the oldest Roadster isn’t yet 20 years old.

Plus, there is a huge difference between the older chemistry 18650-based Roadster packs vs the new 2170L-based packs going into the 3 now.

If I knew the answer, I’d be 10% as rich as Elon. Which would be enough for 100 lifetimes.
 
Interesting article on the 20 year topic.

 

RayK

Active Member
Apr 5, 2016
2,243
2,252
San Jose, CA
I do not believe that there's any federal regulation that forces auto manufacturers to provide parts for vehicles that have gone out of production for any prescribed amount of time. Usually there's a robust third-party source for parts if the car is popular enough. At least that has been true of the ICE population; jury is still out for EV manufacturers, especially for "custom" components such as batteries and motors.
 
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stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
11,133
6,269
Legally don’t they have to support older models?
They only have to support models under warranty legally (which for Tesla is 8 years). Then there are extended warranties related to emissions equipment (which do not apply to EVs given they are considered zero emissions).
California Vehicle and Emissions Warranty Periods | California Air Resources Board

There was a long running myth that there is a law (since EV1 days) where manufacturers are required to keep spare parts around (used to explain why GM took back and crushed the EV1 instead of selling to people), but no one was ever able to provide a reference to the actual law.
 
Last edited:

cwerdna

Active Member
Jul 11, 2012
3,733
2,816
SF Bay Area, CA
They only have to support models under warranty legally (which for Tesla is 8 years). Then there are extended warranties related to emissions equipment (which do not apply to EVs given they are considered zero emissions).
California Vehicle and Emissions Warranty Periods | California Air Resources Board

There was a long running myth that there is a law (since EV1 days) that there is a law where manufacturers are required to keep spare parts around (used to explain why GM took back and crushed the EV1 instead of selling to people), but no one was ever able to provide a reference to the actual law.
Regarding the myth, the closest thing I ever found was relating to recall obligations. See Deciding to keep or trade-in 2011 Leaf @ 3 year ownership - Page 4 - My Nissan Leaf Forum.

I agree also about warranty obligations.

A few years ago, my insurance agent unprompted claimed that even some folks w/older Model S were having trouble getting parts (presumably for accident repairs) and had to get parts specially manufactured. I didn't press him for details. I didn't call him to chit chat about Teslas and it was during business hours, so I'm normally not able to take too much time away from my day job.

With Tesla's track record of battery management, I think the battery itself should last 20 years. But what about all the other electronic components and chips? There's speculation that Tesla isn't using tested vehicle grade chips to get around the current chip shortage. So it's possible that we'll see a lot of model 3s with broken electronics down the road as they get old.

A major factor in how long the model 3 will last is availability of parts and servicing. When a used model 3 is only worth $8000 some day, and a battery pack or drive motor replacement is $4000-12000, then any model 3 with battery/motor issues will just be scrapped. But if there's aftermarket availability for items like that in the $1000-3000 range, you might see model 3s stay on the road for a long time to come.

With so many new EVs coming in the next decade, I'd be shocked if used Model 3 prices don't just drop like a rock in another 9-10 years.
You're relatively new here. Numerous folks w/Model 3's have already required pack replacement under warranty (for whatever failed inside). I've pointed people to their posts here on TMC about them before. Numerous folks w/Model S have needed new packs in and out of 8 year warranty. That number is only increasing.

I don't find the odds too good that a 3 will still be on its original pack after 20 years. They might be decent for say 10 to 15 years w/at least 1 replacement during that time (e.g. get lucky and receive replacement packs before the 8 year warranty expires and that final pack lasts another few years). If the replacement pack is too costly, many will just dump the car.

I will agree with the rest.

Wish the poll had more choices.
 
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Reactions: stopcrazypp
Regarding the myth, the closest thing I ever found was relating to recall obligations. See Deciding to keep or trade-in 2011 Leaf @ 3 year ownership - Page 4 - My Nissan Leaf Forum.

I agree also about warranty obligations.

A few years ago, my insurance agent unprompted claimed that even some folks w/older Model S were having trouble getting parts (presumably for accident repairs) and had to get parts specially manufactured. I didn't press him for details. I didn't call him to chit chat about Teslas and it was during business hours, so I'm normally not able to take too much time away from my day job.


You're relatively new here. Numerous folks w/Model 3's have already required pack replacement under warranty (for whatever failed inside). I've pointed people to their posts here on TMC about them before. Numerous folks w/Model S have needed new packs in and out of 8 year warranty. That number is only increasing.

I don't find the odds too good that a 3 will still be on its original pack after 20 years. They might be decent for say 10 to 15 years w/at least 1 replacement during that time (e.g. get lucky and receive replacement packs before the 8 year warranty expires and that final pack lasts another few years). If the replacement pack is too costly, many will just dump the car.

I will agree with the rest.

Wish the poll had more choices.
I regret not adding more choices and clarifying the question better. Window to edit the original post was very short.

What poll voices would you add?
 
Last edited:

Kevy Baby

Dis-Member
Supporting Member
Aug 11, 2019
2,184
2,289
Brea, CA
Batteries USED TO BE warrantied for about eight years, don't know about present ones, so it seems that 20 years may be a little optimistic.
No warranty is a guarantee of how long a vehicle will last in totality. Hyundai offers a 100,000 mile warranty whereas Toyota only offers 36,000. I would not believe that a Hyundai is going to last 3X as long as a Toyota.
 
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dmurphy

Active Member
Supporting Member
Dec 7, 2018
3,926
5,551
New Jersey - Morris County
Went for a test drive the other day my order arrives in January. Car drives very heavy (cause it is) assuming the shocks might need a replacement at some point over the next 20 years as well.

Not nearly as heavy as you think it is. SR+ is about 3500lbs curb weight. A Camry is about 3400lbs. SR+ is lighter than a 330i.

So no - It’s mostly in your mind.
 

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