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Will an 8 year old Model S be almost worthless?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by jdevo2004, Aug 28, 2016.

  1. jdevo2004

    jdevo2004 Member

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    Once the battery and drivetrain warranty runs out I would think it would be very risky for someone to buy a used Model S. There does not seem to be a way to just fix a battery pack, drive unit, or PEM if something goes wrong inside. One must get a new one (or hopefully a cheaper refurbished one) from Tesla. This seems like a huge expense that you are basically gambling will not happen if you buy an old Model S. Won't that cause extreme depreciation on the Model S as it nears the 8 year mark?
    I know people buy old out of warranty cars all the time. Difference is if something breaks you can just take it down to the local Midas and get it fixed or possibly even do it your self.
     
  2. xav-

    xav- Member

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    Long term this is going to depreciate like a good old jaguar. Between reliability issues, high cost of repairs, huge innovation (self driving cars etc) I think this will be worth less likely before the 8 year window.

    We are looking into a $74k car. I think it will be worth around 10k at the end of our 78 month loan (15k miles a year)
     
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  3. Mike K

    Mike K Member

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    Aside for drive unit failures on early cars, the drivetrain on these cars has been pretty stout. Even on my super early build 2013 everything on the car that Tesla sourced from OE manufacturers has taken a dump but the drivetrain itself has been rock solid and this is a car with an A-pack.

    On top of that people aren't seeing ridiculous battery degradation or any kind of serious chronic issues with these cars. And when I say serious issues I'm referring to problems that prevent the vehicle from performing it's core functions, not a door handle that fails to present.

    Lastly, with time, the cost of repairs will naturally fall. Third party shops will start working on these cars, used motors and batteries will enter the market as will on-site refurbs.

    The bottom line is that if we were still seeing the new and improved drive units failing left and right or chronic batteries issues then yes, people have every reason to be fearful but we've seen basically nothing in the way of chronic battery failures and it appears the drive unit issues have largely been corrected.
     
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  4. xav-

    xav- Member

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    I thought that drive unit failures were still very common..?
     
  5. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT Quickish

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    Don't forget that in 8 years the cost of a replacement battery pack will be less than now.
    Personally, if I could buy an 8 year old Model S for $20,000 I would.
     
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  6. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    So would I. A coule of my less-flush relatives would be thrilled to have one. Maintenance on a te n year old/150,000 mile Tesla will almost certainly be lower than on the comparable ICE vehicles and operating costs will be much lower. Based on user reports there are a few 200,000 mile Model S around now which still have solid performance and battery capacity. As for all the other bits,Mir will resemble all those ICE's but without the drivetrain, exhaust, cooling system problems. The biggest costs will probably be BMS repairs, if needed. Those are endurance when operating cost will be so low.
     
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  7. Spidy

    Spidy Member

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    The question is how many people will pay $20000 when the Model 3 is out. When you consider that you will get some repair costs on the Model S over the next years you get even closer to a $35000 Model 3 which will also have the newest tech, even when you consider a higher cost due to options. I feel like paying more for 4 and 8 years of warranty is easily worth it. Are you going to drive the 8 year old Model S 8 years? If not you could also get some resale value out of the Model 3 and make the gap even closer.

    The Model 3 seems like much lower risks and even best case with few repairs on a Model S the gap won't be that big. Maybe if we are talking about a 90kWh battery it might be worth considering otherwise it's really just the space in the Model S that could make the difference, but at that point we will probably also see a Model Y.
     
  8. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT Quickish

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    Agree that the Model 3 makes it harder to predict, but the Model S is a much bigger car and might still have performance better than the Model 3. It all depends on the details of the Model 3.
    But still, an 8 year old Model S is still a very nice car, and I doubt ICE cars will be competitive even then.
     
  9. Footer

    Footer Member

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    My Lexus hybrid is pushing 10 years. No issues with Li battery or motor. Or anything else for that matter. I expect Tesla to be the same. I worry more about the computer and internet. Probably more so if I had auto-pilot, which I don't :(. Our phones will probably be on 7G by then. Hopefully Tesla has a reasonably priced upgrade for data and computer, but as WK057 pointed out in another thread, Tesla tends not to do things that will encourage people to keep their car.
     
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  10. GSP

    GSP Member

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    In eight years the battery should still be good for a few more years. After 10-15 years owners probably will be able to get a new 100 kWh battery for $10-15k, making the car a very capable vehicle, with free supercharging.

    I think pricing for 10-15 year old Model S, with a new battery, will have to be less than a new Model 3, but they still will retain that value.

    GSP
     
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  11. Sir Guacamolaf

    Sir Guacamolaf The good kind of fat

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    Well let's just say, Tesla the company isn't doing any favors to keep the resale value up either. I don't mind innovation, in fact if that is the reason the car depreciates, I'd be thrilled. But their inability and unwillingness to support cars on the road, is a huge reason why this car at the end of 8 years will be worth .. lesser. Get that ESA btw. Totally worth it.
     
  12. NikeWings

    NikeWings Member

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    Maybe not quite zero but closer than not.

    Going macro here.........even if the drivetrain is flawless the early adopters rushed in for the next greatest thing. This mentality has been rooting for a very long time. I cringe seeing the 7 and 8 years loans being gobbled up. Sure, it makes it more affordable, sure grand visions of holding the car for 10 years, sure rationalize, rationalize, rationalize. Cars, except for the rare few, retain no where near their original value and that's before considering today's pace of advancing technology, anticipated legislation to accelerate full autonomy, planned manufacturer obsolescence, generational lifestyle differences, state of the economy etc. 8 years is a long time with tons of innovation in it, and other than a potentially appreciating piece of real estate or a tanked economy, few (excluding enthusiasts, tinkerers, etc) hold on to anything that long. American industry has no intention of putting itself out of business.......so hurry up with my Jeston space craft please.
     
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  13. Neohippy

    Neohippy Member

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    It's not the battery pack it's everything else. All those small thinks add up quickly. Even if you could get a drive unit cheap let's say 5k. That's still a 5k repair. A used 20k Tesla could get 10k in repairs quickly.
     
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  14. odguy

    odguy Member

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    Can we look at the roadster as comparison? Granted there is no option to buy a new one. However, how old are they now? What was their warranty? And how is their value now?
     
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  15. Mark Z

    Mark Z Active Member

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    What's the value of unlimited Supercharging?

    Since Tesla is recycling the 90 kW battery when an update to 100 kW occurs, that would be an attractive battery to have in a used Model S.
     
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  16. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    No, they are not "very common". Based on reports on TMC, drive units being replaced for excessive noise (not because the car wouldn't operate/move) are uncommon.
    I would not use the Roadster as a comparison. Less than 2,500 Roadsters were sold between late 2008 and early 2011, so they were a very limited production car. They are a tiny 2 seater, not a large 5-7 seater. Completely different market segments. Current Roadster values are about half or less than their new price depending on mileage.

    All cars depreciate dramatically in the first decade or so after they are purchased new, sometimes so much that their value is close to zero. I expect Teslas to significantly depreciate as well.

    And after 10 years and 150K+ miles many ICE cars need major repairs to keep them safe and reliable, such as a new transmission or engine. In most cases those repairs are not made because the market value of the car is so low, and the car is junked.

    Teslas may change that scenario. Once there are a lot of Teslas a decade old with 150K+ mileage, the data may show that battery degradation becomes negligible and most batteries still have 80% or more of their original capacity, meaning the car is still very usable (and by then Superchargers will be everywhere and more closely spaced than they are now).

    Plus, a decade from now replacement battery packs will very likely be far less expensive than they are now. Motors also. Of course there are many other parts on the car that can fail. Hard to predict their replacement costs in 10 years.
     
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  17. jdevo2004

    jdevo2004 Member

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    Battery degradation seems to be a non issue. Plenty of data from Priuses and Roadsters indicate that batteries last a long time. The issue is battery failure for unknown reasons, an issue that no one can predict for battery packs older than 8 years because we do not have data on that yet. We are talking 7168 little batteries, fuses, capacitors, mosfets and so on that all have to work perfectly for the life of the vehicle. Why chance buying a used out of warranty Model S that might need a very expensive battery or drive unit replacement?
     
  18. Sir Guacamolaf

    Sir Guacamolaf The good kind of fat

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    Here is an example. But a roadster is not a fair comparison for the following reasons,

    1. Roadster was a limited run, 2500 and fewer everyday (they are crashing)
    2. Roadster had far more issues than Model S. And the owners had a greater appetite to deal with the issues, and Tesla's willingness to help was greater .. at least used to be. Today it's sorta sad that Tesla is happy to charge them $30K for a battery upgrade, but they won't throw the roadster owners a bone by enabling supercharger access ;)
    3. Roadster owners are not putting as many miles on the car as Model S owners. So many roadsters have very little miles on them.
    4. If you think Model S repairs are bad, look at the roadster.

    Secondly comparing it with an ICE is also not a fair comparison. Yes it is less complex than an ICE, but a 10 year old ICE can be fixed by Joe the mechanic. Your Model S cannot. And Tesla goes out of the way to prevent a third party from fixing it.

    And while EV has less moving parts, your Model S has a LOT of other parts in the car that could fail, and are not fixable without Tesla's super-expensive and often unwilling help. 8 years from now, what incentive does Tesla have to help you? They do have a LOT of incentive to sell you a new car though.

    Things that could go bad with your Model S .. 8 years+,

    Door handles
    Touch screen
    The non touch screen
    steering wheel buttons
    heated seats/airbag sensors
    Latches, Hinges
    Pano roof (motors there?)
    Other wiring
    Bulbs going out
    Your usual car accidents.
    etc.

    Most of those, your neighborhood mechanic won't be able to fix. Tesla won't sell him/her the parts, or make the manuals available. And Model S while > roadster, is still a small segment of the market, so the neighborhood mechanic doesn't care as much for your business either.

    Long story short, a 2013 Model S can be had for as low as $40K today. That's 50% value loss in 3 years. In 8 years, your Model S will be .. $12-$15K. But if you think that's bad, look at a Mercedes S class or Jaguar. :) .. plus you spent $0 on gas.
     
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  19. RogerHScott

    RogerHScott Active Member

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    Putting aside the issue of how likely one would be to actually need to replace the battery pack, I can imagine people choosing to replace
    their pack in a few years due to the technology having advanced so much. For those who care a lot about range it may be possible
    to upgrade from 60/75/90 to 100/120/140 in a few years. For those who don't need so much range -- and particularly those whose packs
    are suffering some degradation -- it may be possible to get a new pack with approximately the same capacity but half the weight. Who
    wouldn't want to shave 500-700lbs off their Model S?

    Such a refresh would either make the car more desirable for the original owner to keep, or make it more attractive for resale.
     
  20. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    Real world scenario, my Tesla needed repair. Towed it to local body shop. Body shop had access to parts diagrams and manuals. Bought parts from Tesla. Fixed car. Currently drive car.

    I think you're maybe a little incorrect here, Sir G.
     
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