Will an 8 year old Model S be almost worthless?

[twonius]

Elephant on the table: what will autopilot be like in eight years?

For me at least, pre-AP cars aren't even worth looking at. Future improvements could reduce the value of cars with today's AP.

I don't get all the hand wringing about depreciation on non-AP cars. I would've been happy with one but once the new 60 came out it worked out to be a better deal for a car I can get 3 more years of use out of vs a CPO 85 after the prices went up in February.

Resale value has been extrememly strong so far, especially compared to an S class or 7 series.

Model 3 might dent things a bit but it's also a different class of car, and has no hatchback.

I don't see much coming down the pike besides that for the next 5 years that'll approach the model S + supercharging. Add in that no one is drilling exploratory wells and likely we'll see gas prices moving up in the next few years as capacity gets back in line with demand. Green car resale values tend to be impacted by gas prices (except Tesla)

Maybe we start seeing wide rollout of 100kW+ CCS chargers funded by the VW settlement I'll change my tune. If that were the case today I'd probably just have waited for a Bolt.

 

[theslimshadyist]

I would say that ANY 8 year old luxury car is basically worthless. For $hits and giggles, I just did a quick search for 2006 BMW 740Li and the average price appears to be about $12K. That car was $80K-$100K brand new.

 

[twonius]

I would say that ANY 8 year old luxury car is basically worthless. For $hits and giggles, I just did a quick search for 2006 BMW 740Li and the average price appears to be about $12K. That car was $80K-$100K brand new.

yeah and that's retail.. you'll probably trade it in for about $4k

I wonder if the Model S might do better as the pack will still likely have some value for energy storage still (maybe 5k) and the aluminum will have a higher scrap value.

It all depends on what it takes to keep them on the road and how many people want them. 8 year old LandCruisers are ridiculously expensive since miles basically don't matter and way more people want used ones than will buy them new.

 

[Mike K]

The better comparison is a 4 year old BMW to a 4 year old Model S. A top of the line 2012 750li is easily purchased for $35,000ish with reasonable miles. A 2012 P85 is a hard $20,000 north of that. Same with a 2012 A8L or S550.

All three cars have either been facelifted or are in their next generation. I would say without a shadow of a doubt the Model S has seen exponentially less depreciation than the other cars.

 

[ApauloThirteen]

There's going to be a floor set at some point.

There's talk that in San Jose, ppl are buying used Nissan Leafs for cheap and running them as in town cars to ferry kids, etc around. The maint is similar to say a Toyota Corolla (ie power window goes out, seat needs fixing, etc) without the headache of replacing oil, transmissions, failing smog, etc like said Corolla. And if you're using locally and have a multi car family, why not.

I'd imagine the used Teslas would follow a similar path. A good 'in town' (<100 miles) car that you park outside, beat up on, don't care about dings, dents, scratches. A 'beater' car so to speak.

Diff from a used Benz, BMW, Audi where a 7+ yr car there would be inviting a maintenance headache.

 

[Footer]

In 2010 I paid $31,000 for a 2007 Lexus RX400H. MSRP was $48,000. It's now worth about $12,000. I like the car now as much as I did in 2010. Lexus added nothing in subsequent years that made me want to buy a newer model. Other than it not being an EV, it's a great car.

I paid $82,000 (after tax credit) for my S85 3 months before Auto-Pilot. After 1 year Tesla offered $66,000 as a trade-in, after 2 years $52,000. When I bought the car I expected to keep it 8 years or so. If I do, I expect it will be worth ~25%, or $21,000. But I also expect that I will like it as much as I do now (much more than the Lexus), assuming it is as mechanically sound as my Lexus. Not having Auto-Pilot just means I need to find the right buyer.

So unless the car has serious mechanical reliability problems, the car will be far from worthless. Used ICE cars on the other hand.....

 

[theslimshadyist]

In 2010 I paid $31,000 for a 2007 Lexus RX400H. MSRP was $48,000. It's now worth about $12,000. I like the car now as much as I did in 2010. Lexus added nothing in subsequent years that made me want to buy a newer model. Other than it not being an EV, it's a great car.

I paid $82,000 (after tax credit) for my S85 3 months before Auto-Pilot. After 1 year Tesla offered $66,000 as a trade-in, after 2 years $52,000. When I bought the car I expected to keep it 8 years or so. If I do, I expect it will be worth ~25%, or $21,000. But I also expect that I will like it as much as I do now (much more than the Lexus), assuming it is as mechanically sound as my Lexus. Not having Auto-Pilot just means I need to find the right buyer.

So unless the car has serious mechanical reliability problems, the a car will be far from worthless. Used ICE cars on the other hand.....

Using your hypothesis above and assuming it would be worth $21K, if the battery pack went caput, what would it cost to replace it? I would have to guess that it would be greater than $21K, no?

 

[number12]

In 2010 I paid $31,000 for a 2007 Lexus RX400H. MSRP was $48,000. It's now worth about $12,000. I like the car now as much as I did in 2010. Lexus added nothing in subsequent years that made me want to buy a newer model. Other than it not being an EV, it's a great car.

I paid $82,000 (after tax credit) for my S85 3 months before Auto-Pilot. After 1 year Tesla offered $66,000 as a trade-in, after 2 years $52,000. When I bought the car I expected to keep it 8 years or so. If I do, I expect it will be worth ~25%, or $21,000. But I also expect that I will like it as much as I do now (much more than the Lexus), assuming it is as mechanically sound as my Lexus. Not having Auto-Pilot just means I need to find the right buyer.

So unless the car has serious mechanical reliability problems, the car will be far from worthless. Used ICE cars on the other hand.....

So $90,000 sticker down to $66,000 after year one? How many miles?

Autopilot you think was main reason for $24,000 haircut in 12 months? And another $14,000 in another 12 months?

Or $1500 a month in 24 months.

 

[Xenius]

Hey guys, when any of you gets to 8 years in your S, I'll gladly take that worthless thing off your hands

 

[J1mbo]

Another way to look at it would be: how much would you be willing to pay *today* for an 8+ year old car that (might) crap out at any point and need 20k spent on it to get it back on the road?

 

[DillyBop]

Will an 8 year old Model S be almost worthless?

probably.

how much would you pay for a Motorola Razr right now?

 

[hsctiger93]

One of my kids will be 19 at that time; the other 16. Depending on who gets the better grades, one of them is getting a great car. So, no I don't worry too much about the resale value. A car purchase is consumption, not investment.

 

[ChadS]

My Roadster's battery is even more expensive because it is hand assembled. The warranty ran out in 2012. Not only is it not worthless now, its resale value is excellent, far greater than the average car.

The Roadster is not directly comparable, but there are a few factors not being considered by some. The most pertinent is...what could happen to the battery that will cause you to have to replace the whole thing?

Tesla only charges you to fix what is broke. The battery is modular. They only charge you to replace what you need, even if they happen to physically replace the whole battery for expediency.

I had a bad sensor lead weld (far more common in a hand-assembled pack). The battery replacement cost at the time was about $39k. They only charged me a tenth of that, despite giving me a whole new pack in better condition and throwing in an alignment and a free service.

 

[Saghost]

Another way to look at it would be: how much would you be willing to pay *today* for an 8+ year old car that (might) crap out at any point and need 20k spent on it to get it back on the road?

There's no way that getting it back on the road in eight years will cost $20k.

By then, a new replacement pack will probably cost half that - but more importantly, you'll see an industry grow up around the cars, folks learning how to safely open the pack and fix the few pack level items that might fail to "kill" the pack/car and learning to refurbish parts off of dead cars. You're already seeing it at a hobbyist sort of level here on the forums, and it'll only continue to grow. (The same thing happened with the Prius and the predictions of horribly expensive battery failures.)

With the "RAID" battery structure, even a bunch of cell failures will just mean less range - the pack isn't going to simply "wear out", though it may eventually degrade to the point of having a range that's short enough to be annoying/challenging (honestly not really expecting this, either.)

 

[mikes_fsd]

just a random example... in preparation for the arrival of our Tesla, I sold our Highlander for more then 50% of the price we paid new in 2010.

6 yrs 100k miles, base trim (so no assist features at all). All this to say, there are buyers out there for different levels of trim/features, it took me 3 weeks to sell (and one of those weeks I was out of town - so no showings)

 

[davidc18]

I think if you should plan on it having a very low residual value. If it turns out otherwise, you will be happily surprised. There is no guarantee that there will ever be low(er) cost replacement batteries or rebuilt DUs. Tesla has not been overly cooperative in Norway with independent shops so far. I say, enjoy the car and we will see how it all turns out.

 

[Sunlight]

Well if we take 8 years from even last year, that is 2023 and people are talking about 2022-2025 being the 'tipping point' for EVs so whatever Teslas/EVs are worth then second hand, you can bet that ICE-age cars will be worth even less - worthless maybe...?
Audi/VW group are talking of 25-30% of all their cars being EVs by 2025 (and I think they are playing a double-handed game - could be over 50% by then if the cards fall right).
So if you buy an ICE car in the mid-2020s when you come to sell it after not even 8 years, but say 4-5 (2030), then you'll have to call the scrap disposal unit and get your 'conversion fee' from whoever.

 

[davewill]

... The S pack is designed from day one to be easily replaced (unlike say.... a Leaf pack). Think they were saying 42 bolts or something, and then it drops out the bottom. ...

Just for clarity, the LEAF pack also just drops out the bottom, and may actually be easier to change out simply because of size. The LEAF was also designed to be swapped while you wait, and they had a serious pilot program running in Israel that did automated swapping.

Anyway, the depreciation will depend on how many used Tesla's end up needed lots of repairs...which we don't have a good idea about, yet. I do believe that you will be able to do more and more repairs using third parties as time goes on...even if they have to hack their way in and depend on rebuilding parts.

I've been having the same thoughts about keeping my Rav4EV after the 8yr/125k extended warranty I just purchased. I'd feel better if I wasn't getting ready for my second drive unit swap because of the milling sound with only 34k miles on the ODO.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Just for clarity, the LEAF pack also just drops out the bottom, and may actually be easier to change out simply because of size. The LEAF was also designed to be swapped while you wait, and they had a serious pilot program running in Israel that did (still does?) automated swapping.

This is incorrect. You are confusing it with the Nissan Rogue Test mules which were eventually replaced with Renault vehicles. The Leaf was never designed for automated swapping.
Better Place Parking Lot: Ideas For Nissan Rogue Test Mules?

There are some extra steps for the Leaf pack vs the S that make it not suitable for automation (notably the aero shield is held by plastic clips and separate from the pack and also the cable brackets and cable connections are not designed for automated removal, but rather manual removal), but it is a pack that is relatively easy to remove (vs most EVs).
How to drop a Nissan Leaf battery pack (without an auto lift) | Jay's Technical Talk

 

[davewill]

This is incorrect. You are confusing it with the Nissan Rogue Test mules which were eventually replaced with Renault vehicles. The Leaf was never designed for automated swapping.
Better Place Parking Lot: Ideas For Nissan Rogue Test Mules?
.../QUOTE]
I didn't know about the Rogues. It was the Fluence ZE program that I misremembered.