Will an 8 year old Model S be almost worthless?

[ApauloThirteen]

Just for clarity, the LEAF pack also just drops out the bottom, and may actually be easier to change out simply because of size. The LEAF was also designed to be swapped while you wait, and they had a serious pilot program running in Israel that did automated swapping.

Anyway, the depreciation will depend on how many used Tesla's end up needed lots of repairs...which we don't have a good idea about, yet. I do believe that you will be able to do more and more repairs using third parties as time goes on...even if they have to hack their way in and depend on rebuilding parts.

I've been having the same thoughts about keeping my Rav4EV after the 8yr/125k extended warranty I just purchased. I'd feel better if I wasn't getting ready for my second drive unit swap because of the milling sound with only 34k miles on the ODO.

Cool, didn't know that. Why the heck doesn't Nissan announce that they will be offering mfr backed replacement packs at original specs (or even for longer range packs, assuming similar sizing) for $X then, to take away some of the risk new buyers are facing? The skeptical side says b/c they want you to buy a new (ev/ICE) car....

B/c for those w/ the environmental mindset, the best thing we can do is NOT keep buying new cars, even EVs. And having a clearly defined replacement pack program would help.... but I will now step off the soapbox surrounded by bubbles and get back to reality...

 

[J1mbo]

There's no way that getting it back on the road in eight years will cost $20k.

By then, a new replacement pack will probably cost half that - but more importantly, you'll see an industry grow up around the cars, folks learning how to safely open the pack and fix the few pack level items that might fail to "kill" the pack/car and learning to refurbish parts off of dead cars. You're already seeing it at a hobbyist sort of level here on the forums, and it'll only continue to grow. (The same thing happened with the Prius and the predictions of horribly expensive battery failures.)

With the "RAID" battery structure, even a bunch of cell failures will just mean less range - the pack isn't going to simply "wear out", though it may eventually degrade to the point of having a range that's short enough to be annoying/challenging (honestly not really expecting this, either.)

I take your point that a 20k repair is unlikely, however, I do think it will take longer than another 6 years before there is a garage within towing distance from me that will be able to drop a pack and (for example) replace the contactors.

Used battery modules are currently going for 5k each on eBay. Hopefully they will be a bit cheaper in 6 years time, but with so many other great uses (solar storage, electric boats, etc), they may not be.

 

[Saghost]

I take your point that a 20k repair is unlikely, however, I do think it will take longer than another 6 years before there is a garage within towing distance from me that will be able to drop a pack and (for example) replace the contactors.

Used battery modules are currently going for 5k each on eBay. Hopefully they will be a bit cheaper in 6 years time, but with so many other great uses (solar storage, electric boats, etc), they may not be.

Modules for $5k each?!?

If you can get that price consistently, you could turn a big profit buying used/CPO cars and selling pack modules...

 

[Darren Donovan]

I agree with posters upthread wrt the battery pack not being an issue. The problems will be all the other items that are only annoying, at this time, because the cars are still under warranty. Imagine the center screen unusable due to melting plastic and/or adhesives, door handles randomly not presenting, leaking pano roof, ... other "teething" problems at this time that will become headaches in 8 years, i.e. very expensive to fix . IMO it's better to get another EV, Tesla or others, at that time, that are newer. That's just me, I don't buy used cars that are older than 4-5 years old, unless they are classic sports cars or are special for some other reasons. How can you stand the interior of an 8-year-old car, compared to other "current" cars?

 

[ElectricTundra]

We all value things differently. It's probably important that we keep in mind that most of us are fairly well off financially. Most of us likely only buy new cars (except as Darren pointed out in the case of a classic of some such) or very recent model CPO's. A 5 or 8 or 10 year old car is worth much less to us than it is to someone who can't afford (or is just cheap) a newer Tesla but are very willing to do a bunch of garage wrenching to maintain an older one. They are likely willing to pay a bit more for an older car than most of us.

 

[Darren Donovan]

Touchscreen: Mositure/Leak?

Entire thread is about the screen, then post #95 mentions cost of fixing just-developed AC problem, and several other issues that he had in the car.

 

[John5396]

What I observed for the Prius market. A new battery pack from Toyota was always quoted at about $4k. What happened is that the battery pack was reliable so there are plenty of used packs available for owners who have a battery failure out of warranty. The going price for a used pack is about $600 which is the floor because Toyota is paying $400 for used batteries back into their recycling program. So I will expect in 4 more years when the earliest Model S's have battery and drive unit leave warranty that there will be used battery packs and drive units available from totaled cars that repairs will not be the $20K we are discussing now.

That said, I have often owned cars long past the end of the manufacturers warranty. It is being "self Insured".

 

[davewill]

Cool, didn't know that. Why the heck doesn't Nissan announce that they will be offering mfr backed replacement packs at original specs (or even for longer range packs, assuming similar sizing) for $X then, to take away some of the risk new buyers are facing? ...

They did. For about $6k including labor, Nissan will replace your pack with a new one of the same specs, with a new warranty. The people who have had it done reported that once the dealer got the pack, the swap was quick (hours). So far, they have resisted letting people with a 24kWh pack upgrade to the 30kWh, and I don't expect the pack from LEAF 2.0 will be backwards compatible. The rub is (and it's the same one we're wrangling with in this thread) that used '11 and '12 LEAFs are only worth $6-10K. Kinda hard to invest $6k in a car that's worth so little...and that with a pack replacement price about as cheap as you could hope for, and reliability that has been excellent.

 

[Snerruc]

Service manager at my BMW deales told me he personally would not consider owning any luxury car beyond 8 years. They are so complex that he said the cost of repair is extreem. Most of the problems are computer/electronics related and are beyond car mechanics. Batteries, motors, transmissions aren't even on the list. Typical S or7 has 70+ computers!

 

[ApauloThirteen]

They did. For about $6k including labor, Nissan will replace your pack with a new one of the same specs, with a new warranty. The people who have had it done reported that once the dealer got the pack, the swap was quick (hours). So far, they have resisted letting people with a 24kWh pack upgrade to the 30kWh, and I don't expect the pack from LEAF 2.0 will be backwards compatible. The rub is (and it's the same one we're wrangling with in this thread) that used '11 and '12 LEAFs are only worth $6-10K. Kinda hard to invest $6k in a car that's worth so little...and that with a pack replacement price about as cheap as you could hope for, and reliability that has been excellent.

Ah ok cool thx. Hmmm yeah, if they can drop the price a bit and if they could upgrade 24 to the 30 kwh packs, that might be more interesting. I know, I lot of IFs....

Designing for eventual pack replacement should be standard.... I know, a lot of 'should be's as well... sigh.

Ok stopping now... or switching this to the Leaf forums....

 

[Footer]

So $90,000 sticker down to $66,000 after year one? How many miles?

Autopilot you think was main reason for $24,000 haircut in 12 months? And another $14,000 in another 12 months?

Or $1500 a month in 24 months.

12,500 miles a year. I'm sure Autopilot was a big factor. Personally, I would pay a lot more for a CPO with Autopilot, even though I rarely would use it (no commute, no traffic ever, just one long road trip a year).

 

[Footer]

Using your hypothesis above and assuming it would be worth $21K, if the battery pack went caput, what would it cost to replace it? I would have to guess that it would be greater than $21K, no?

I replaced a 10 year old hybrid battery in my son's 2004 Civic for $3000, point being that a lousy Civic battery with no smart charging still lasted for 10 years. I expect the Lexus hybrid battery will last longer and the Tesla longer still.

For the Civic I had to decide if I should spend $3,000 for a battery for a $3,000 car, which I decided to do because it was otherwise just a boat anchor. Now it's almost as good as it ever was (not that great being a Civic) and hopefully with minor maintenance (<$1,000/year) my son can use it for several more years. I would use the same logic for the Tesla if necessary. At some point in every Tesla's life somebody will have to decide if they want to spend whatever it costs for a battery to return the car to it's former glory. If the battery is exceedingly expensive, then the car will be worth only the salvage value, which would make the car almost worthless. However, in that case it's likely the entire EV market will have collapsed.

Who knows what batteries will cost in 6 years, when my car turns 8. Maybe not enough lithium is mined and they cost a fortune. Or maybe the economies of scale bring the cost to $10,000. Or there are cheap reconditioned batteries.

 

[GJ79]

There's going to be a floor set at some point.

There's talk that in San Jose, ppl are buying used Nissan Leafs for cheap and running them as in town cars to ferry kids, etc around. The maint is similar to say a Toyota Corolla (ie power window goes out, seat needs fixing, etc) without the headache of replacing oil, transmissions, failing smog, etc like said Corolla. And if you're using locally and have a multi car family, why not.

I'd imagine the used Teslas would follow a similar path. A good 'in town' (<100 miles) car that you park outside, beat up on, don't care about dings, dents, scratches. A 'beater' car so to speak.

Diff from a used Benz, BMW, Audi where a 7+ yr car there would be inviting a maintenance headache.

I always find it funny on the forum that everyone believes that the TESLA is a such a low maintenance car. There is so much in the electronics that can go and will go bad that render the car immediately useless and most of those issues are difficult to find and that makes them expensive. I am still dealing with the issue I had on my car that took Tesla 3 weeks to even identify. These cars will be of a much higher maintenance headache in 8 years because there will still hardly be any shops that can fix smaller issues and Tesla shops are too expensive to fix a Tesla that might already be worth only 10k.

 

[ApauloThirteen]

I always find it funny on the forum that everyone believes that the TESLA is a such a low maintenance car. There is so much in the electronics that can go and will go bad that render the car immediately useless and most of those issues are difficult to find and that makes them expensive. I am still dealing with the issue I had on my car that took Tesla 3 weeks to even identify. These cars will be of a much higher maintenance headache in 8 years because there will still hardly be any shops that can fix smaller issues and Tesla shops are too expensive to fix a Tesla that might already be worth only 10k.

Fair enough. But you've just described basically every modern car out there with software in it. The EV will be, all things being equal, less to maintain over time b/c you don't have the engine, the tranny, the increasingly complex emissions stuff, that they put on ICE cars. Does anyone think that auto start/stop on an ICE to save 1-3 mpg, is a good idea for reliability long term?

 

[number12]

I replaced a 10 year old hybrid battery in my son's 2004 Civic for $3000, point being that a lousy Civic battery with no smart charging still lasted for 10 years. I expect the Lexus hybrid battery will last longer and the Tesla longer still.

For the Civic I had to decide if I should spend $3,000 for a battery for a $3,000 car, which I decided to do because it was otherwise just a boat anchor. Now it's almost as good as it ever was (not that great being a Civic) and hopefully with minor maintenance (<$1,000/year) my son can use it for several more years. I would use the same logic for the Tesla if necessary. At some point in every Tesla's life somebody will have to decide if they want to spend whatever it costs for a battery to return the car to it's former glory. If the battery is exceedingly expensive, then the car will be worth only the salvage value, which would make the car almost worthless. However, in that case it's likely the entire EV market will have collapsed.

Who knows what batteries will cost in 6 years, when my car turns 8. Maybe not enough lithium is mined and they cost a fortune. Or maybe the economies of scale bring the cost to $10,000. Or there are cheap reconditioned batteries.

Did you compare to a lease with nothing down on a new hybrid civic? Seeing as current one turned into a boat anchor at one point

 

[Saghost]

I always find it funny on the forum that everyone believes that the TESLA is a such a low maintenance car. There is so much in the electronics that can go and will go bad that render the car immediately useless and most of those issues are difficult to find and that makes them expensive. I am still dealing with the issue I had on my car that took Tesla 3 weeks to even identify. These cars will be of a much higher maintenance headache in 8 years because there will still hardly be any shops that can fix smaller issues and Tesla shops are too expensive to fix a Tesla that might already be worth only 10k.

Yup, the car is pretty complex - like all other cars. When you start talking about reliability, you're dealing with the "bathtub curve" and the operating environment.

Most parts fail either right near the beginning of their design lives (due to defects from production) or not until right near the end.

The main environmental factors for reliability are vibration levels and thermal environment - higher temperatures mean shorter lives typically, and more thermal cycling is always bad for component life.

So stack a Tesla up against a comparable modern ICE car for a moment. The electronics are generally similar in number/complexity, though the Tesla adds the drive motor and charger electronics, both high power liquid cooled systems. The Tesla systems don't have the constant vibration of the ICE, and are generally subjected to less thermal stress as well.

The mechanical systems aren't even close - the Tesla mechanicals are much simpler, and involved far fewer wear/rubbing points and almost none of the thermal cycling and vibration.

I think it's entirely reasonable to expect a Tesla to have much better reliability and longer operational life, assuming it makes it through the front end of the bathtub (which is what you have the warranty for.)

 

[Footer]

Did you compare to a lease with nothing down on a new hybrid civic? Seeing as current one turned into a boat anchor at one point

Don't really want another Civic. Didn't want to deal with selling the car for salvage. Anyway, a $3000 car is perfect for my son.

 

[GSP]

Modules for $5k each?!?

If you can get that price consistently, you could turn a big profit buying used/CPO cars and selling pack modules...

Interesting point. With batteries being useful for applications beyond just cars, perhaps used battery pricing for other uses will set a floor on what a used model S is worth. The great thing about that is that newer better Autopilot hardware will have zero effect on that floor pricing.

GSP

 

[Don85D]

Our Model S is a long term 'keeper' and even if battery capacity degrades over time it will still cover our daily local driving needs. I have restored and maintained more than a few classic and collectable cars. Used parts were available for these cars and the modular nature of today's engineering designs mean that plug level replacement parts should work.

Operating costs for our Model S are near zero with a solar array producing more than we can consume for local driving and Supercharging covering long distance energy needs. It is such a pleasure not to have fuel costs.

I'm not concerned about the future value of our Model S. It's a keeper.

 

[W0QR]

There's a possibility that the resale might hold up pretty well. 8 years isn't too long a time. Here's the key: new battery packs. I'm thinking in 8 years, battery packs might actually be reasonably priced. Say in the 8-thousand dollar area. Motors should last a lifetime. Electronics could be replaced easily (but for how much?). Don't leave it outside or in the sun so the rubber doesn't deteriorate--I'd bet they would be worth $25k with a new pack.