Since Tesla is only producing the $44k LR version at first it's entirely possible that there won't be a $35k car sold before the 200k car limit has been reached.
deonb
Active Member
Go read up on how the tax rebate expiration time period works, and then come back here.
The rebate doesn't end as soon as the 200,000 car is sold in the US. It starts to phase out the quarter after the quarter in which the car was sold. So even if 200,000 is reached in 2017 all Teslas sold in the 1st quarter 2018 will get the full rebate.
EDIT- posted same time as deonb. I like his answer better.
EDIT- posted same time as deonb. I like his answer better.
kev1n
Active Member
The answer to the thread question is "yes".
Even though your statement in your OP could well be correct.
This is because of the tax credit rules.
My delivery estimate would be February-April 2018 (I live in the Northeast corner of the USA).
200,000 US sales are expected 2018Q1, and in that case anyone taking delivery by the end of 2018Q2 would still qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit.
Alternatively:
<pedant_mode enabled="enabled">
The answer to the thread question is "no".
It's a tax credit, not a tax rebate.
Some people might be able to use the credit to get a $7,500 rebate.
</pedant_mode>
Even though your statement in your OP could well be correct.
This is because of the tax credit rules.
My delivery estimate would be February-April 2018 (I live in the Northeast corner of the USA).
200,000 US sales are expected 2018Q1, and in that case anyone taking delivery by the end of 2018Q2 would still qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit.
Alternatively:
<pedant_mode enabled="enabled">
The answer to the thread question is "no".
It's a tax credit, not a tax rebate.
Some people might be able to use the credit to get a $7,500 rebate.
</pedant_mode>
Last edited:
Yes you would get the full $7500 rebate through June if they hit 200K units Q1(Jan 1st+). Basically as it goes now NOBODY except employees will be getting an AWD or Performance with the FULL tax credit. Maybe a HALF tax credit sometime in the JULY delivery range
The question was about the 35K version, but as far as the AWD my estimate is June to August, so your statement isn't necessarily true. And you say "maybe" a half credit, but the half credit will run to the end of the year so any early reservers will definitely get a half credit.
Dynastar
Member
All this assumes tax reform doesn't happen, or doesn't kill the EV credit if it does.
I'd be amazed if Tesla actually winds up making the base model available on that schedule. I bet it will be delayed in order to encourage purchases of the more expensive model.
Oops. I'm not sure why I wrote rebate. It's close but you are right that it's not the same thing.
I'm well aware of how it works. The question is really whether Tesla gets to 200k cars before producing a $35k car.
There are currently at around 130k cars sold and it will be somewhere around 160k by year end.
If they have enough LR orders to fill first and $35k car delivery slips to early April its possible that all $35k cars will receive less than the full $7500.
I guess most people here believe that option free cars will be delivered on time.
Are you positing a scenario where instead of 160k by year end, they hit 200k by year end? Cuz I'm reading your post as you expecting them to hit 200k by Q1 2018. If that's the case, the April-June $35k cars will still get the full $7,500. The law reads that it's the full amount in the quarter a manufacturer hits 200k sold AND the following quarter. So, if Tesla is at 160k at end of Q4 2017 and hits 200k in Q1 2018 with the $35k cars delivered in April, then they'd still get the full $7,500 for everything in Q2 2018.
Nearly everyone expects Tesla to artificially slow deliveries at year end 2017 if they're even close to 200k. And, if things get bogged down and they don't near 200k until later Q1, that they'd also slow deliveries to hit 200k right at the beginning of Q2 just to gain that extra quarter of the full $7,500.
This would hurt all the other manufacturers worse than TSLA. Do not see it happening. Ford and GM playing catch up, not to mention other OEM would not like it.
Ah. I guess I wasn't well aware of how the rebate works after all. I thought it was only the full quarter in which 200k car sales where reached. Non-option car deliveries would have to be delayed until July then for the full credit not to be applied. Even on Musk time tahts probably a bit of a stretch.
Whatever happens expect these forums to be filled with angry people who missed delivery deadline (whenever that may be.)
That makes no sense. Telling somebody they will be able to get the car soon if they want the base model and then stringing them along doesn't encourage them to buy the more expensive Model, because they keep thinking they'll get the base model soon (I've already waited a few months, what's a couple months more). If they wanted to encourage people to buy the more expensive Model they would tell them that the base model won't be shipping for a long time from the beginning.
Telsa is currently projecting a Jan-March 2018 delivery for our $35k base model, which is well within even the most conservative estimates for receiving the full $7,500 credit. I will admit that the tax reform issue is remotely concerning, but reforming the tax code would be such a complex and robust undertaking - especially for this divided gov - that I doubt it'll happen anytime soon.
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