Will any $35K M3 ever get the $7500 tax rebate??

[ggies07]

the short answer is, yes

yep, I will be!

 

[gambit48]

Telsa is currently projecting a Jan-March 2018 delivery for our $35k base model, which is well within even the most conservative estimates for receiving the full $7,500 credit. I will admit that the tax reform issue is remotely concerning, but reforming the tax code would be such a complex and robust undertaking - especially for this divided gov - that I doubt it'll happen anytime soon.

Reforming health care is an incredibly complex task. That didn't stop the Republican leadership from trying to cram a square peg into a radically differently sized round hole. Damn the consequences. They came shockingly close.

 

[Dynastar]

If meaningful tax reform happens there will be groups much bigger then Tesla screaming bloody murder- the EV tax credit will be a tiny road bump in comparison. Most of the other car manufactures don't seem that committed to the EV anyway, I bet GM would be happy to trade it for much lower corporate tax rates. Happily (?) the current administration seems pretty inept at passing legislation.

 

[UCIBtheG]

The answer to the thread question is "no".
It's a tax credit, not a tax rebate.
Some people might be able to use the credit to get a $7,500 rebate.

But surely, you at least agree that it is about the money?

 

[kenbefound]

I think it all boils down to whether Elon can reach his early production goals. I doubt he wants to disenfranchise anyone. Yes, he needs to sell more highly optioned versions up front to keep the cash flowing, makes sense. But $35K for the base Model 3 is a good deal even without the tax credit and will most likely sell like hotcakes well after it phases out.

 

[liuping]

Nearly everyone expects Tesla to artificially slow deliveries at year end 2017 if they're even close to 200k. And, if things get bogged down and they don't near 200k until later Q1, that they'd also slow deliveries to hit 200k right at the beginning of Q2 just to gain that extra quarter of the full $7,500.

They don't actually have to slow deliveries (which would effect quarterly earnings and the stock price), they just have to divert all deliveries after the 199,999 US vehicle to another country until the end of the quarter.

 

[eSpiritIV]

Oops. I'm not sure why I wrote rebate. It's close but you are right that it's not the same thing.

I'm well aware of how it works. The question is really whether Tesla gets to 200k cars before producing a $35k car.
There are currently at around 130k cars sold and it will be somewhere around 160k by year end.
If they have enough LR orders to fill first and $35k car delivery slips to early April its possible that all $35k cars will receive less than the full $7500.
I guess most people here believe that option free cars will be delivered on time.

Still your understanding is not how it works. Even if they hit 200,000 cars, every car made during the next quarter gets the full credit. Theoretically if they were capable of producing 400,000 cars a quarter ,all of those cars would get the credit if it were sold to customers that same quarter. I hope that makes sense.

Ideally they would hit the 200k mark January 1st quarter and everybody through June would get the full credit

 

[SageBrush]

OP asked: "Will any $35K M3 ever get the $7500 tax rebate??"

Yes

 

[SageBrush]

Reforming health care is an incredibly complex task.

Oh ... I don't know about that. I think it comes down to pretty simple issues:

1. It is hard to take back something. In this case protection from rate hikes due to pre-existing conditions
2. It is hard to protect one voter group while targeting another. In this case protect the trump voting seniors and poor white trash.

 

[dragonxt]

Well mine will be, Dec 2017 delivery. Placed reservation Nov Of 2016.

 

[SageBrush]

Ideally they would hit the 200k mark January 1st quarter and everybody through June would get the full credit

Right. The two most misunderstood parts of this story:

1. The phase-out starts when 200k deliveries in the US have occurred
2. The first stage of the phase-out includes the full tax credit for the quarter when it started AND in the following quarter.