Will any companies be able to match Tesla's performance and range by 2012?

[vfx]

I think the BMW Activehybrid 3 might be the exception to that. ....

I divide eletric motor ICE assist hybrids into two catgories (with bleed) Hybrid for econmy and hybrid fro performance.

At some point the two will merge but for now it's mostly an either or.

 

[palmer_md]

Yes, Mate Rimac does. range 600km 0-100km/h 2.8sec

When I saw this thread I was going to mention the same thing. Not a high volume producer, but he can match the performance and range of Tesla.

http://www.rimac-automobili.com/concept_one/specifications-10

but you really need an asterisk here since he is not really delivering cars in 2012 (I don't think).

 

[RDoc]

This was a good question. I really think that the plug-in EV space is evolving into 3 main areas:
1. Plug-in hybrids, with no range anxiety - Chevy Volt leads here. Expect this space to grow.
2. Pure (battery only) EVs, essentially branded as a City Car (commuting vehicle) - Leaf, and several other options.
3. Pure (battery only) EVs with no range anxiety - Tesla is alone here, and will be for years to come.

I agree.

I don't think the US market for your Type 2 EV's, e.g. Leaf, is very big. People often (> 5x per year) use their cars for longer trips. While there are other options than a longer range car, that's the overwhelmingly preferred solution in the US.

Your type 3, Tesla, IMHO depends on batteries getting a lot cheaper. There is a market for Tesla, but it's going to be limited to enthusiasts with money. Financially, it's pretty much impossible to make an argument for this type of EV at current battery prices and capacities.

Type 1, e.g. the Volt, is currently more attractive on combined range and price than the other 2 which I believe is why it's acceptance is so high. As batteries get cheaper though, there might be a smooth transition from more engine, less battery to more battery, less engine, finally winding up at all battery. OTOH, an intermediate point like lightweight diesel hybrids may be the winner in the end, just using the battery for performance, regen, and possibly home recharging.

Battery cost and capacity developments seem like the big factor to me.

 

[richkae]

I think the single biggest thing holding back the other automakers is desire.
A powerful enemy of future innovation is past success, it makes companies afraid to make a new product that cannibalizes their existing product lines.
Usually somebody else comes along and does it for them.

I also don't discount the influence of the oil companies. GM killed the EV1 and sold the NiMH patents to Texaco/Chevron - burying them. I think it is very probable that the oil companies push automakers to avoid BEVs and push FCVs instead.

 

[neroden]

I think the single biggest thing holding back the other automakers is desire.
A powerful enemy of future innovation is past success, it makes companies afraid to make a new product that cannibalizes their existing product lines.
Usually somebody else comes along and does it for them.

Most certainly -- but you shouldn't underestimate the effect of corporate culture, or self-image. If the company executives think of the company as a "gasoline engine company", they'll never want to build an electric-motored car.

I also don't discount the influence of the oil companies. GM killed the EV1 and sold the NiMH patents to Texaco/Chevron - burying them. I think it is very probable that the oil companies push automakers to avoid BEVs and push FCVs instead.

And the same combination of "blinded by past success" and "corporate culture" is happening at the oil companies. The people running them think of themselves as "oilmen", which is why the companies have been *completely* incapable of diversifying, especially into anything which would compete with oil. It's not their area of expertise, it's not "what they do". For the same reason, they've been unwilling to accept that oil is a dying industry -- if they did, they'd just mail the profits to the stockholders and relax, but instead they shovel money into useless exploration projects.

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Battery cost and capacity developments seem like the big factor to me.

Yeah. That problem will be solved within 10 years. (Actually, is already solved on paper, just not in production, which is of course a huge leap.) I don't know if some other car company will get the jump on Tesla in that regard or not. Who knows.

 

[PeterW]

Most certainly -- but you shouldn't underestimate the effect of corporate culture, or self-image. If the company executives think of the company as a "gasoline engine company", they'll never want to build an electric-motored car.

Marketing Myopia - Harvard Business Review

“Marketing Myopia” is the quintessential big hit HBR piece. In it, Theodore Levitt, who was then a lecturer in business administration at the Harvard Business School, introduced the famous question, “What business are you really in?” and with it the claim that, had railroad executives seen themselves as being in the transportation business rather than the railroad business, they would have continued to grow.

 

[KBF]

Yeah, I wouldn't count specs that aren't EPA or equivalent certified. From what I gather it's not. It would be nice to have some Tesla competition that is successful. The Rimac unfortunately looks like a 'typical' concept car, something that will vastly change before (if) it hits the market. Or does someone follow it closely and know more?

When I saw this thread I was going to mention the same thing. Not a high volume producer, but he can match the performance and range of Tesla.

http://www.rimac-automobili.com/concept_one/specifications-10

but you really need an asterisk here since he is not really delivering cars in 2012 (I don't think).

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Rimac responded to me pretty quick with my e-mail query and said they I could visit If i was ever around there and contacted them sounds pretty good to me. now If I could drive my S to europe...

 

[palmer_md]

They are going to try and stay close to the concept, but there will be some changes. For sure the frontal area will be increased as there is not much head room in the car right now, and they might put in a rear window instead of the cameras, but they are not really trying to compete with Tesla, their target market is the Bugatti Veyron and the like, so supercar, super expensive. They are also not going to deliver any cars this year as far as I know. I believe they are targeting the end of 2013, but that may have changed as well.

As far as an EPA rating, the numbers they mention seem reasonable, but that just shows how fantastic the Model S is. They are selling for about 1/10th the cost of the Rimac and have very similar specs as far as the pack goes (91kWh, 300 mile range) The A123 cells allow them to put out much more power, but they also probably occupy more space and weigh more than what is in the Model S.

• Power output: 1088 hp
• Torque: 1600 Nm from 0 to 6500 rpm
• Acceleration: 0-100 km/h (0-62 mph) 2,8 seconds
• Range: up to 600 km (realistic range – 500 km)
• 40 kW on-board charging
• 100 kW fast DC-charging
• Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (LiFePO4) chemistry
• Configuration: 1400 cells - 200 series, 7 parallel
• Voltage: 650V nominal
• Capacity: 91 kWh

 

[Robert.Boston]

Rimac sounds like a great car, but it's not going to be a production vehicle, assembled on a factory line. I don't see any truly comparable competitor to the Model S on the horizon: full stop. Audi has backed away; BMW is working towards a commuter vehicle at best, or an overpriced "8"; Toyota is building only compliance vehicles. Nissan is the one wild card, but the track record of the Leaf shows that they have paid enough attention to fundamental engineering issues. Open field for Tesla!