Will Apple enter the EV/smartcar market in some meaningful capacity?

[Antares Nebula]

Okay folks, since some of you were challenging the premise of my first poll, claiming "neither" or "that Apple is irrelevant", I made a new poll to gauge the opinion of the wider TMC investor community. So everybody, please let's have a vote. If you vote "Yes" here, I ask that you then please take a follow up vote about Apple's role in relation to Tesla in the following **updated** poll:

Edited: Apple as a worthy competitor, benevolent partner, or benevolent acquirer?

Some clarification: By "meaningful capacity", I mean just that: significant, relevant, etc. But what exactly Apple does is left open, so as not to complicate the poll. They could just do software: carOS and/or autonomy. Or they can also do hardware: EV powertrain. They may do it all themselves, like Tesla, or partner with an OEM or license. We don't have to get into the weeds here, just as long as we understand that they will be a non-trivial player in some dimension and capacity in the modern era of EVs, autonomy, and smartcars.

Below is a link that summarizes publicly available reports on Apple's activities in the EV/smartcar market.
Apple Car: It's no secret, Apple's actively working on Car tech

I made the poll to be viewed only after voting (to be more honest IMO).

You can change your mind after you vote. Your individual votes are not displayed publicly.

If you have any other thoughts or feedback, please comment below. Thank you!

 

[Antares Nebula]

A comprehensive history of Project Titan (Apple's "secretive" car project):

Apple Car: It's no secret, Apple's actively working on Car tech

"Reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo also believes that Apple is still working on an Apple Car that will launch between 2023 and 2025. Kuo believes the car will be Apple's "next star product" with Apple able to offer "better integration of hardware, software and services" than potential competitors in the automotive market, with Apple-designed chips manufactured by TSMC."

There is also timeline at the end of the article:

October2019
Oct 18 Quanta Reportedly Supplying Apple With 'Autonomous Driving Solutions'

July2019
Jul 22 Apple Hires Former Tesla Engineering VP With Expertise in Car Interiors

June2019
Jun 28 Jony Ive Once Insisted on Apple Car Without a Steering Wheel
Jun 25 Apple Confirms Acquisition of Self-Driving Vehicle Startup Drive.ai
Jun 6 Apple Reportedly in Process of Acquiring Self-Driving Vehicle Company Drive.ai

April2019
Apr 17 Apple Reportedly Seeking LiDAR Sensors With 'Revolutionary Design' for Self-Driving Vehicles

February2019
Feb 27 Apple Confirms 190 Layoffs From Self-Driving Car Project
Feb 21 German Report Says 'Apple Car' Could Arrive in Form of Electric Van
Feb 20 Apple Shares White Paper on Self-Driving Car Safety
Feb 13 Apple's Self-Driving Car Performance May Not Be So Bad After All
Feb 12 Apple Reports Self-Driving Car Disengagements to DMV, Earns Worst Rank

January2019
Jan 30 Second Apple Employee Accused of Stealing Apple Car Details
Jan 24 Apple Cuts 200+ Employees From 'Project Titan' Autonomous Car Team

December2018
Dec 17 Apple Hires Former Tesla and Microsoft HoloLens Designer Andrew Kim

October2018
Oct 21 Apple Signs Lease for Large Manufacturing Facility in Milpitas, California
Oct 19 Apple Self-Driving Car in Manual Mode Involved in Minor Collision That Wasn’t Driver’s Fault on October 15
Oct 17 TSMC to Remain Sole iPhone Chip Supplier, Could Provide ARM-Based Chips for Mac in 2020, Apple Car Chips in 2023

August2018
Aug 31 Apple Autonomous Test Vehicle Involved in Accident on August 24
Aug 14 Kuo: Apple to Launch Apple Car in 2023 to 2025
Aug 10 Former Tesla Lead Engineer Doug Field Returns to Apple to Work on Project Titan

 

[Oveeus]

I think it's too little, too late.

The only way Apple to enter the EV sector in any meaningful way would be buying out Tesla while it still can. (current TSLA market cap is roughly 60B. Add another 25-30% premium, say about 80B is still well within Apple's pocket) Heck, even buying out a current ICE manufacturer would make more sense.

With all major ICE manufacturers entering the EV sector one way or the other... for Apple to jump into it from scratch... it'd be very difficult if not impossible. The barrier of entry for car manufacturing is very different than say a computer or smartphone... same goes for the logistic and market channel planning.

If Apple started selling their Apple car before Tesla made it clear that EV is a feasible market, they might have a chance. Now their competition is much greater and they have little room for improvement to come out with an evolutionary product like iPhone, which again... the timing was right because smartphone was a super niche market back then with all the Palm Pilots and Blackberries.