Will Buy A Model S... But Think I'm Gonna Wait A Bit.

[FutureShock]

Had been planning to buy an MS in Q1 or Q2 2018, i.e. right before the Federal tax credit ran out.

But now, with the Fed tax credit in imminent danger of being repealed by EOY 2017, I'm rethinking my time frame. For a few reasons:

1- Obviously, no time pressure anymore if the Fed tax credit gets killed (thanks & f-u, Big Oil and its Congressional lackeys).

2- Upgrades/refreshes. I can wait for the MS to be improved/worthy of the in-effect higher price. If and when a major interior refresh comes along, and/or the base model goes to an 85-90 kWh battery pack, then boom!, I'm there. And maybe even happier than if I'd gotten a cheaper-via-tax-credit S75D without those things.

3- Reliability. Let's face it, Tesla's #1 priority by a country MILE right now is Model 3 production. The stock's getting hammered because of it, Elon's camping out on the roof of the GigaFactory because of it, and cars are shipping to dealers without seats and display screens because of it:

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-shipped-cars-without-seats-and-digital-displays-1820113207

They've also allegedly shifted 10% of resources (I assume that means 'people') for MS production over to the Model 3. And maybe the best ppl got sent over to do M3 production? Hmm.

Hard to know for sure exactly what's going on over there, but, if I'm gonna drop $80K+, then I want the best possible chance at having a reliable car. So maybe let Elon & Co. sort out production hell fully and get it all under control before purchasing an 'oops, sorry' ride that'll cost me all sorts of time going to and from the Service Center.


My current take on the matter, anyway. YMMV.

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[DrReid]

I agree with you in general - now is a good time to buy if you the tax credit does go away! By waiting you are taking a gamble - you are hoping that the car gets a refresh before the end of the year AND you have time to order and take delivery before the end of the year when/if the tax credit expires.

If you do want to take delivery before the end of the year, you need to order ASAP or even look at inventory units. Obviously that doesn't help with any hope for a refresh but it does help with your cost savings on the Model S!

I wouldn't stress about reliability. If you live in NorCal, I assume you are near a service center. The Model S has been very reliable for awhile now. I'm sure the early Model 3s will have issues, as did the early Model Xs and Ss, but they've worked through most of the their issues. There is always a confirmation bias with hearing about the few screw ups because people post about them!

Also, don't forget a referral link to get your unlimited super charging.

 

[FutureShock]

(OP here): And I would add a fourth reason:

4 - Expanded state tax credits. It's very possible that California (my home state) and many other states will increase their EV tax credits in response to this backwards Federal legislation.

Which would be fantastic... but I'd of course want to see when it kicks in before buying.

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[FutureShock]

I agree with you in general - now is a good time to buy if you the tax credit does go away! By waiting you are taking a gamble - you are hoping that the car gets a refresh before the end of the year AND you have time to order and take delivery before the end of the year when/if the tax credit expires.

If you do want to take delivery before the end of the year, you need to order ASAP or even look at inventory units. Obviously that doesn't help with any hope for a refresh but it does help with your cost savings on the Model S!

I wouldn't stress about reliability. If you live in NorCal, I assume you are near a service center. The Model S has been very reliable for awhile now. I'm sure the early Model 3s will have issues, as did the early Model Xs and Ss, but they've worked through most of the their issues. There is always a confirmation bias with hearing about the few screw ups because people post about them!

Also, don't forget a referral link to get your unlimited super charging.

Thanks, but I'm not sure you quite got the gist of my post.

I'm basically saying, 'No, I'm not gonna rush my purchase in order to try to grab the Fed tax credit, and here's why'.

Again, YMMV.

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[DrReid]

Thanks, but I'm not sure you quite got the gist of my post.

I'm basically saying, 'No, I'm not gonna rush my purchase in order to try to grab the Fed tax credit, and here's why'.

Again, YMMV.

.[color]

I have baby brain (6 day old at home) so I definitely will cop to misunderstanding the post.

Regardless, if you're cool missing out on the $7500 tax credit, then waiting is definitely a good option. I stand by what I said above that I don't think reliability is a major concern with the S at this point. What it comes down to is: Would you rather wait for a refresh or would you rather save $7500?

 

[TaoJones]

I’d rather wait for the refresh since I’m going to lose $80K in depreciation from my $120K purchase anyway.

 

[A C N]

I'm in the market for a new car, but am waiting probably another year. We recently bought my wife an SUV. While doing all the test drives, including the X + S, she couldn't get over the fact that the X was very "plain" and not very "stylish." I know this appeals to many people on the boards here, but I tend to agree with her. The luxury car manufacturers def have advantages to many features we both want in a car.

We ended up buying a MB GLC (the E and S are just too big for us without kids atm), but it has a HUD, adaptive cruise, blind spot, 360 cameras (all features we love); the S class has the auto rear sunshades, heated/cooled seats.

I was recently looking at the CLS 550 (has a new refresh coming in 2018-19) and the features again tip the scales slightly in favor of the MB over Tesla. If MB built the features and inside luxury of the X, my wife would want it. We loved the acceleration of the X and autopilot.

I really hope Tesla adds in these features, but I'm not holding my breath. Also, S Pricing needs to be adjusted as there won't be much separating the 75D S from the LR 3. The 75D, fully loaded, should be around 70k...not 100k imo.

 

[Lifeinabox]

I agree that waiting makes sense. Right now is the absolute wrong time to buy new unless you really need an S (and who really does?). CPO, on the other hand, is a good hedge against several of your concerns.

 

[FutureShock]

I have baby brain (6 day old at home) so I definitely will cop to misunderstanding the post.

No worries. And congratulations.

And hang in there! lol.

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[caltechkid]

(OP here): And I would add a fourth reason:

4 - Expanded state tax credits. It's very possible that California (my home state) and many other states will increase their EV tax credits in response to this backwards Federal legislation.

Which would be fantastic... but I'd of course want to see when it kicks in before buying.

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Honestly I wouldn't count on this, and without getting political it's likely to fall under the current low income guidelines given the drive to shift EV adoption en masse.

 

[boonedocks]

Definitely wait maybe 3 months definitely 6 months. Everything should be working as advertised by then........(that was a joke).

Buy it now and enjoy it. Something really IS always in the works and you’ll never buy if you keep thinking what-if what-if what-if

 

[Don85D]

We used the tax credit to purchase a solar panel array on the house which powers the Model S for 25000 free km per year. That alone was worth moving to an EV before the rest of the world gets there. I like the idea of making my own fuel and the government made that possible.

Our 85D has been reliable and without problems and to me the competition for most gadgets and features is not as important.

Just another point of view for the discussion.

 

[A C N]

Was watching this video today about the new Audi A8. Some nice features...

 

[Ken7]

Thanks, but I'm not sure you quite got the gist of my post.

I'm basically saying, 'No, I'm not gonna rush my purchase in order to try to grab the Fed tax credit, and here's why'.

Again, YMMV.

.[color]

The QC on the S has been very good. I got mine a month ago, and I’ve been really happy with it.

I’m not sure what the benefits are of paying at least $7,500 more for a ‘hope’ that QC will be even better.

But hey, it’s your money.

 

[Grassright]

Good luck with getting a refresh MS before Q3 2018

 

[FutureShock]

Honestly I wouldn't count on this, and without getting political it's likely to fall under the current low income guidelines given the drive to shift EV adoption en masse.

True, nothing's a sure thing... but my state (California) only just weeks ago almost increased their EV tax credit, and the bill is very likely going to be re-introduced next year with some revisions:

Bigger rebates for [California] EV buyers hit a speed bump

And Cali already income-limits their EV tax credit to a (single-earner) income of under $150K/year. Which I slide underneath (albeit not by much).

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[FutureShock]

The QC on the S has been very good. I got mine a month ago, and I’ve been really happy with it.

I’m not sure what the benefits are of paying at least $7,500 more for a ‘hope’ that QC will be even better.

Well, to be fair, Model S quality has only fairly recently been 'very good'. Horror stories of earlier-model-year Model Ses abound.

My concern isn't that I want MS reliability to be even better than its current (good) level... it's that MS quality is, as we speak, and even more so over the next few months, going to decline as a result of chaos/'production hell' as Tesla struggles to make the physical/production transition to being a mass-market car maker (i.e. much higher volumes of vehicles being produced).

IOW, the Model 3 rollout/production is going poorly, and as this is a HUGE threat to Tesla's bottom line (and the stock price), literally nothing else matters 'til that gets fixed. Some resources have already been shifted from Model S and Model X production to Model 3 production, in fact:

"Tesla will also make 10% fewer units of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover in the fourth quarter to reallocate manufacturing resources to the sputtering Model 3."

Tesla production snags delay Model 3 electric car

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[Uncle Paul]

Tesla upgrades all the time. They just upgraded the sensor package, increased the performance of the 75D, upgraded the 2nd row folding seats etc. From time to time they release improvements. The last face lift smoothed out the front and removed the grill. They recently upgraded the headlights.

Little notice is given when they do the upgrades. They just show up, much to the delight of buyers in line, but to the consernation of those that "just missed it".

Trying to game the system depends more on luck and good timing than careful planning.

Often they are able to do upgrades, after the fact, by OTA downloads. Owners of 75D models just were notified that they can have their performance enhanced with a free trip to a service center. The autopilot is constantly getting upgraded this way, automatic lheadlight dimming, self folding mirrors, creep mode, Summon, Valet mode, camping mode, pet mode, over temperature mode, and just recently Chill mode etc all were added for existing owners at no cost.

Hope you time it exactly right and get the best deal possible for you, but be aware that other improvements are always just around the corner.

 

[Ken7]

Well, to be fair, Model S quality has only fairly recently been 'very good'. Horror stories of earlier-model-year Model Ses abound.

My concern isn't that I want MS reliability to be even better than its current (good) level... it's that MS quality is, as we speak, and even more so over the next few months, going to decline as a result of chaos/'production hell' as Tesla struggles to make the physical/production transition to being a mass-market car maker (i.e. much higher volumes of vehicles being produced).

IOW, the Model 3 rollout/production is going poorly, and as this is a HUGE threat to Tesla's bottom line (and the stock price), literally nothing else matters 'til that gets fixed. Some resources have already been shifted from Model S and Model X production to Model 3 production, in fact:

"Tesla will also make 10% fewer units of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover in the fourth quarter to reallocate manufacturing resources to the sputtering Model 3."

Tesla production snags delay Model 3 electric car

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I personally don't think the Model 3 will have any negative impact on the QC of the S. When I bought my S, Model 3 was in the same state it is now. My QC has been excellent and my car was built in September. I think it's naive to think that all of a sudden it will somehow get better next year.

Frankly, based on how many concerns you have, you should probably consider a different car entirely.

 

[Brian-MS90D]

@FutureShock , here is my advice as a new MS owner since you're asking

• I agree with you, do not make your purchase decision over the federal tax credit. It's not that much money and there are more important considerations.
• Remember, the Model 3 production hell is regarding an issue at the joint Panasonic/Tesla Gigafactory (battery factory). It is not at the factory where the cars are assembled (Fremont).
• Have you test driven one? If not, do so before you buy anything.
• If you have test driven one and you are still having these doubts today, then the MS is probably not for you.