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Will Canada make FTC trouble?

bgbolton

Member
May 5, 2018
136
-17
San Francisco, CA
Many believe that Tesla is shipping new Model 3 cars to Canada to delay the 200000 delivery to phase out the credit but many domestic US people have configured and paid already for an order with a delivery estimate of 3 to 6 weeks.

The FTC guide suggests Tesla may be shooting their own foot:

(a)(1) To solicit any order for the sale of merchandise to be ordered by the buyer through the mail, via the Internet, or by telephone unless, at the time of the solicitation, the seller has a reasonable basis to expect that it will be able to ship any ordered merchandise to the buyer:

(i) Within that time clearly and conspicuously stated in any such solicitation; or

(ii) If no time is clearly and conspicuously stated, within thirty (30) days after receipt of a properly completed order from the buyer. Provided, however, where, at the time the merchandise is ordered the buyer applies to the seller for credit to pay for the merchandise in whole or in part, the seller shall have fifty (50) days, rather than thirty (30) days, to perform the actions required in this paragraph (a)(1)(ii).

(2) To provide any buyer with any revised shipping date, as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, unless, at the time any such revised shipping date is provided, the seller has a reasonable basis for making such representation regarding a definite revised shipping date.

(3) To inform any buyer that it is unable to make any representation regarding the length of any delay unless:

(i) the seller has a reasonable basis for so informing the buyer; and

(ii) the seller informs the buyer of the reason or reasons for the delay.

...

Where a seller is unable to ship merchandise within the applicable time set forth in paragraph (a)(1) of this section, to fail to offer to the buyer, clearly and conspicuously and without prior demand, an option either to consent to a delay in shipping or to cancel the buyer‘s order and receive a prompt refund. Said offer shall be made within a reasonable time after the seller first becomes aware of its inability to ship within the applicable time set forth in paragraph (a)(1) of this section, but in no event later than said applicable time.

Aside of being the right thing to do it looks if Tesla does not intend on meeting the given delivery dates they must inform us. Tesla can not take our money with a 3 to 6 week delivery estimate if they lack any intention of delivering that!

If you are in US waiting over your delivery estimate and Tesla has ignored you or not given a new date you should take time to remind them of your consumer rights :)
 

TexasEV

Well-Known Member
Jun 5, 2013
7,650
8,482
Austin, TX
The number of a Model 3s going to Canada has to be trivial. Almost everyone there is waiting for the AWD version. There is no reason to believe that Tesla is sending out configuration emails now and holding back the car. 3-6 weeks is an estimate, not a promise. We all know about Tesla’s time estimates being optimistic. That said, I received mine in 6 1/2 weeks from order. As the saying goes, don’t make a federal case out of it.
 

TT97

Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
2,173
2,911
Los Angeles
While there have been a number of people whose delivery was longer than 6 weeks, there have been just as many that received their cars in under 3 weeks. The majority of people have received their vehicle within the 3-6 week window.

I am getting anxious in getting my VIN (and the car), it has been 2½ weeks since I configured and while it would be nice to have the car already, I am not in the mindset that if I do not have my VIN today, Tesla is lying on the 3-6 week time-frame and I am not getting my car until July. For people to blast Tesla for their 3-6 week estimate when they don't have a VIN by the end of their second week is insane.

Yes, I believe Tesla is trying to delay their 200,000th order in the U.S. until Q3, but that doesn't mean their going to stop selling cars today. They still have over 14,000 cars to sell before they hit 200k. They know how many cars they can sell in the U.S. and knew before sending out the invite batches.
 

03DSG

Active Member
Apr 5, 2016
2,151
2,458
Ontario
The number of a Model 3s going to Canada has to be trivial. Almost everyone there is waiting for the AWD version. There is no reason to believe that Tesla is sending out configuration emails now and holding back the car. 3-6 weeks is an estimate, not a promise. We all know about Tesla’s time estimates being optimistic. That said, I received mine in 6 1/2 weeks from order. As the saying goes, don’t make a federal case out of it.

It may be trivial but my DS up here mentioned 1000’s of 3’s for a Toronto delivery event. Leased an off site delivery location at the International Center, Pearson airport. They are posting delivery positions for it from May 28 to June 30. VINs are rolling out fast up here for 18” aeros so far.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: shrspeedblade

bgbolton

Member
May 5, 2018
136
-17
San Francisco, CA
It may be trivial but my DS up here mentioned 1000’s of 3’s for a Toronto delivery event. Leased an off site delivery location at the International Center, Pearson airport. They are posting delivery positions for it from May 28 to June 30. VINs are rolling out fast up here for 18” aeros so far.

1000s? So several weeks of production. That is not trivial.
 

TexasEV

Well-Known Member
Jun 5, 2013
7,650
8,482
Austin, TX
It may be trivial but my DS up here mentioned 1000’s of 3’s for a Toronto delivery event. Leased an off site delivery location at the International Center, Pearson airport. They are posting delivery positions for it from May 28 to June 30. VINs are rolling out fast up here for 18” aeros so far.
Yeah, like Tesla employees have never been known to exaggerate. My guess is he’s off by a factor of 10.
 

Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
Leased an off site delivery location at the International Center, Pearson airport.
That would be a smart move though to move the temp volume w/o opening up new SCs.
SCs will still need to deal with all the defects people find, so they will be overwhelmed.
They are posting delivery positions for it from May 28 to June 30.
This is interesting. If they stop on June 30 it implies a great level of planning. Also, probably implies that Canada cannot count on the same swiftness when it comes to AWD post-June.
 
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03DSG

Active Member
Apr 5, 2016
2,151
2,458
Ontario
Yeah, like Tesla employees have never been known to exaggerate. My guess is he’s off by a factor of 10.

When I spoke to my DS last week she mentioned each of them at her location had about 200 names on their list to call. Many that were waiting for AWD up here in Ontario, myself included, have switched to First Production. There is currently a $14,000 cash incentive in Ontario to buy an EV with the Model 3 specs. There is also an up to $1000 cash incentive towards purchase and installation of an approved home charging station.
We have a Provincial election in June and the party that is expected to win has promised to scrap the incentive program. Once the election was announced our ‘late 2018’ delivery estimates all changed to ‘mid 2018’ and the invites started rolling out. The incentive is cash and a lot of money to ignore. Delaying for AWD May cost an additional $14,000.
 

vadimr

Member
May 4, 2018
78
147
New Jersey
I was invited and configured on 4/18, still no VIN my brother however was invited and configured on 4/6 and got vin on 5/2 with delivery set for 5/28. They told him that's the earliest they can do, I find that a bit odd how close that is to the end of the month. Granted both of us are in New Jersey.
 
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TT97

Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
2,173
2,911
Los Angeles
I was invited and configured on 4/18, still no VIN my brother however was invited and configured on 4/6 and got vin on 5/2 with delivery set for 5/28. They told him that's the earliest they can do, I find that a bit odd how close that is to the end of the month. Granted both of us are in New Jersey.

Why do you find it odd being close to month end? Tesla reports sales on a quarterly basis so they always make a big push the last few days of each quarter (although guessing this quarter being the exception), but they don't really make any push for the other month ends. The delivery locations have been swamped with deliveries and the 28th is probably the first day they have an opening (and on Memorial Day).
 

Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
You may be surprised. Given 215 Canadian's have already configured and ordered their cars in the last couple of weeks according to Model 3 tracker spreadsheet, and it's around a 5% sample, I would say 1000 deliveries is highly possible.
I think spreadsheet is more like 2.3% sample (assuming 200K U.S. reservations and 4.6K U.S. entries). That would mean 415 Canada entries extrapolate to 18K total Canadian reservations.

If we go by population of Canada that is 11% of U.S., then 200K*.11=22K reservations.

I.e. somewhere around 20K.

Based on spreadsheet, it could be that north of 50% are ordering First Production ($14K incentive that has a high chance of going away could be responsible for such high numbers).

I.e. we may be talking 10K orders.

SCs I think are unable to handle such volume before Q2 end. But if Tesla is leasing additional delivery location(s) who knows...
 
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TT97

Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
2,173
2,911
Los Angeles
I think spreadsheet is more like 2.3% sample (assuming 200K U.S. reservations and 4.6K U.S. entries). That would mean 415 Canada entries extrapolate to 18K total Canadian reservations.

If we go by population of Canada that is 11% of U.S., then 200K*.11=22K reservations.

I.e. somewhere around 20K.

Based on spreadsheet, it could be that north of 50% are ordering First Production ($14K incentive that has a high chance of going away could be responsible for such high numbers).

I.e. we may be talking 10K orders.

SCs I think are unable to handle such volume before Q2 end. But if Tesla is leasing additional delivery location(s) who knows...

Where did you get 415 entries?

I think looking at total entries vs total reservations is misleading - many people never enter their info on the site until they receive their invite or decide to configure. On the "Delivery" tab, they do the calculation of how many reported for Q1 deliveries (471) vs Tesla's reported deliveries (8,180) for a 5.76% rate. Based on the 216 Canadians configured, that puts it at 3,757.
 

sitter_k

Active Member
Jun 23, 2014
1,032
513
Toronto (GTA)
When I spoke to my DS last week she mentioned each of them at her location had about 200 names on their list to call. Many that were waiting for AWD up here in Ontario, myself included, have switched to First Production. There is currently a $14,000 cash incentive in Ontario to buy an EV with the Model 3 specs. There is also an up to $1000 cash incentive towards purchase and installation of an approved home charging station.
We have a Provincial election in June and the party that is expected to win has promised to scrap the incentive program. Once the election was announced our ‘late 2018’ delivery estimates all changed to ‘mid 2018’ and the invites started rolling out. The incentive is cash and a lot of money to ignore. Delaying for AWD May cost an additional $14,000.
Election was never "announced" we knew years ago June 7th 2018 would be the day.
 

Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
Where did you get 415 entries?

I think looking at total entries vs total reservations is misleading - many people never enter their info on the site until they receive their invite or decide to configure. On the "Delivery" tab, they do the calculation of how many reported for Q1 deliveries (471) vs Tesla's reported deliveries (8,180) for a 5.76% rate. Based on the 216 Canadians configured, that puts it at 3,757.
412 actually
Tesla Model 3 Invites - Canada

I don't get your 5% rate... why look at quarter and increase the size of error/assumptions. I look at totals.
I think given 450K total reservations, 200K for U.S. is a moderate assumption. The speadsheet has total less than 5K entries for U.S. and Canada only, out of which 412 is Canada.
 
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sitter_k

Active Member
Jun 23, 2014
1,032
513
Toronto (GTA)
I think spreadsheet is more like 2.3% sample (assuming 200K U.S. reservations and 4.6K U.S. entries). That would mean 415 Canada entries extrapolate to 18K total Canadian reservations.

If we go by population of Canada that is 11% of U.S., then 200K*.11=22K reservations.

I.e. somewhere around 20K.

Based on spreadsheet, it could be that north of 50% are ordering First Production ($14K incentive that has a high chance of going away could be responsible for such high numbers).

I.e. we may be talking 10K orders.

SCs I think are unable to handle such volume before Q2 end. But if Tesla is leasing additional delivery location(s) who knows...
Troy I believe it was, mentioned that the Tracker could be Canadian Biased slightly as it was created and run by a Canadian which might lead to the Canadian numbers being scaled up slightly.
 

Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
Troy I believe it was, mentioned that the Tracker could be Canadian Biased slightly as it was created and run by a Canadian which might lead to the Canadian numbers being scaled up slightly.
I don't see how the citizenship of creator can affect those who add entries independently.

However, I think I'm having trouble seeing correct info from the spreadsheet on my phone, so I'm not positive about stated numbers.
 

sitter_k

Active Member
Jun 23, 2014
1,032
513
Toronto (GTA)
I don't see how the citizenship of creator can affect those who add entries independently.

However, I think I'm having trouble seeing correct info from the spreadsheet on my phone, so I'm not positive about stated numbers.
For example, I think there's higher Canadian membership on model 3 owners club forum than on here.
 

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