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Will Canada make FTC trouble?

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by bgbolton, May 6, 2018.

  1. bgbolton

    bgbolton Member

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    Many believe that Tesla is shipping new Model 3 cars to Canada to delay the 200000 delivery to phase out the credit but many domestic US people have configured and paid already for an order with a delivery estimate of 3 to 6 weeks.

    The FTC guide suggests Tesla may be shooting their own foot:

    Aside of being the right thing to do it looks if Tesla does not intend on meeting the given delivery dates they must inform us. Tesla can not take our money with a 3 to 6 week delivery estimate if they lack any intention of delivering that!

    If you are in US waiting over your delivery estimate and Tesla has ignored you or not given a new date you should take time to remind them of your consumer rights :)
     
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  2. TexasEV

    TexasEV Well-Known Member

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    The number of a Model 3s going to Canada has to be trivial. Almost everyone there is waiting for the AWD version. There is no reason to believe that Tesla is sending out configuration emails now and holding back the car. 3-6 weeks is an estimate, not a promise. We all know about Tesla’s time estimates being optimistic. That said, I received mine in 6 1/2 weeks from order. As the saying goes, don’t make a federal case out of it.
     
  3. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    While there have been a number of people whose delivery was longer than 6 weeks, there have been just as many that received their cars in under 3 weeks. The majority of people have received their vehicle within the 3-6 week window.

    I am getting anxious in getting my VIN (and the car), it has been 2½ weeks since I configured and while it would be nice to have the car already, I am not in the mindset that if I do not have my VIN today, Tesla is lying on the 3-6 week time-frame and I am not getting my car until July. For people to blast Tesla for their 3-6 week estimate when they don't have a VIN by the end of their second week is insane.

    Yes, I believe Tesla is trying to delay their 200,000th order in the U.S. until Q3, but that doesn't mean their going to stop selling cars today. They still have over 14,000 cars to sell before they hit 200k. They know how many cars they can sell in the U.S. and knew before sending out the invite batches.
     
  4. 03DSG

    03DSG Active Member

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    It may be trivial but my DS up here mentioned 1000’s of 3’s for a Toronto delivery event. Leased an off site delivery location at the International Center, Pearson airport. They are posting delivery positions for it from May 28 to June 30. VINs are rolling out fast up here for 18” aeros so far.
     
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  5. bgbolton

    bgbolton Member

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    1000s? So several weeks of production. That is not trivial.
     
  6. TexasEV

    TexasEV Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, like Tesla employees have never been known to exaggerate. My guess is he’s off by a factor of 10.
     
  7. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    #7 Moderatefan, May 7, 2018
    Last edited: May 7, 2018
    That would be a smart move though to move the temp volume w/o opening up new SCs.
    SCs will still need to deal with all the defects people find, so they will be overwhelmed.
    This is interesting. If they stop on June 30 it implies a great level of planning. Also, probably implies that Canada cannot count on the same swiftness when it comes to AWD post-June.
     
  8. 03DSG

    03DSG Active Member

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    When I spoke to my DS last week she mentioned each of them at her location had about 200 names on their list to call. Many that were waiting for AWD up here in Ontario, myself included, have switched to First Production. There is currently a $14,000 cash incentive in Ontario to buy an EV with the Model 3 specs. There is also an up to $1000 cash incentive towards purchase and installation of an approved home charging station.
    We have a Provincial election in June and the party that is expected to win has promised to scrap the incentive program. Once the election was announced our ‘late 2018’ delivery estimates all changed to ‘mid 2018’ and the invites started rolling out. The incentive is cash and a lot of money to ignore. Delaying for AWD May cost an additional $14,000.
     
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  9. vadimr

    vadimr Member

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    #9 vadimr, May 7, 2018
    Last edited: May 7, 2018
    I was invited and configured on 4/18, still no VIN my brother however was invited and configured on 4/6 and got vin on 5/2 with delivery set for 5/28. They told him that's the earliest they can do, I find that a bit odd how close that is to the end of the month. Granted both of us are in New Jersey.
     
  10. Duckjybe

    Duckjybe Member

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    You may be surprised. Given 215 Canadian's have already configured and ordered their cars in the last couple of weeks according to Model 3 tracker spreadsheet, and it's around a 5% sample, I would say 1000 deliveries is highly possible.
     
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  11. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    Why do you find it odd being close to month end? Tesla reports sales on a quarterly basis so they always make a big push the last few days of each quarter (although guessing this quarter being the exception), but they don't really make any push for the other month ends. The delivery locations have been swamped with deliveries and the 28th is probably the first day they have an opening (and on Memorial Day).
     
  12. azred

    azred Active Member

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    FTC trouble? What a reach.
     
  13. bgbolton

    bgbolton Member

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    Nah. It turns out you can not take $2500 from people and tell them 3 to 6 weeks and never inform them of an update. Thanks Obama :)
     
  14. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    #14 Moderatefan, May 7, 2018
    Last edited: May 7, 2018
    I think spreadsheet is more like 2.3% sample (assuming 200K U.S. reservations and 4.6K U.S. entries). That would mean 415 Canada entries extrapolate to 18K total Canadian reservations.

    If we go by population of Canada that is 11% of U.S., then 200K*.11=22K reservations.

    I.e. somewhere around 20K.

    Based on spreadsheet, it could be that north of 50% are ordering First Production ($14K incentive that has a high chance of going away could be responsible for such high numbers).

    I.e. we may be talking 10K orders.

    SCs I think are unable to handle such volume before Q2 end. But if Tesla is leasing additional delivery location(s) who knows...
     
  15. TT97

    TT97 Active Member

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    Where did you get 415 entries?

    I think looking at total entries vs total reservations is misleading - many people never enter their info on the site until they receive their invite or decide to configure. On the "Delivery" tab, they do the calculation of how many reported for Q1 deliveries (471) vs Tesla's reported deliveries (8,180) for a 5.76% rate. Based on the 216 Canadians configured, that puts it at 3,757.
     
  16. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

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    Election was never "announced" we knew years ago June 7th 2018 would be the day.
     
  17. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    #17 Moderatefan, May 7, 2018
    Last edited: May 7, 2018
    412 actually
    Tesla Model 3 Invites - Canada

    I don't get your 5% rate... why look at quarter and increase the size of error/assumptions. I look at totals.
    I think given 450K total reservations, 200K for U.S. is a moderate assumption. The speadsheet has total less than 5K entries for U.S. and Canada only, out of which 412 is Canada.
     
  18. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

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    Troy I believe it was, mentioned that the Tracker could be Canadian Biased slightly as it was created and run by a Canadian which might lead to the Canadian numbers being scaled up slightly.
     
  19. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    I don't see how the citizenship of creator can affect those who add entries independently.

    However, I think I'm having trouble seeing correct info from the spreadsheet on my phone, so I'm not positive about stated numbers.
     
  20. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

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    For example, I think there's higher Canadian membership on model 3 owners club forum than on here.
     

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