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Will EU Super Charger surpass the US briefly ?

Discussion in 'Charging Standards and Infrastructure' started by Kevin Harney, Jul 2, 2014.

  1. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    Looks like by the end of this year TM is shooting for 130-140 Superchargers in EU and there are only 200 for the US.

    EU already has about 40 either done or under construction and we have had very few added here lately.

    Permitting process over there must be MUCH easier. Will they pass us for a time ? That would be an interesting milestone.

    Thoughts ?!?!?!!?
     
  2. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Not anytime soon, I think. Maybe in 2020?
     
  3. miimura

    miimura Active Member

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  4. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    I was actually thinking the opposite. EU is catching up fast but the shear size of the US will demand more. Eventually we will need 300-350 in the US. I think the EU will top out about 150-200. But at the moment their progress is faster.
     
  5. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    Seems to be coming sooner than you expected. US 116 to rest of world's 98 and the gap is narrowing fast !!
     
  6. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    There will be about 300 Supercharger stations in Europe at the end of 2016. By then there will be more Supercharger stations in North Amerika.
     
  7. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    #7 Kevin Harney, Oct 16, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2014
    So read my original post. That is the same thing I said but with revised numbers. The US will eventually go ahead of the EU because of shear size but will the EU surpass us for a short time given the reduced construction and permitting in the US ? Point is we are coming up on that brief time that the EU will be ahead very soon. But in all fairness of the 98 in the World only 75 are in the EU.
     
  8. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    The US will stay ahead of the EU, certainly in the current decade.
     
  9. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    The EU has been averaging about 10/month over the past 6 months and the US has been averaging 4/month. At that rate the EU will pass the US in about 6 months time. They will eventually get saturated and we will need to keep going and pass them in order for us to be saturated as well. The US will eventually have twice the numbers as the EU just because of shear size and expanse. My point is expansion in the EU is FLYING and in the US it is at a near standstill.
     
  10. Cottonwood

    Cottonwood Roadster#433, Model S#S37

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    If you look at Permit Stage and Construction Stage at Supercharger.Info, then there are 13 under construction and 17 in the permit phase in North America while Europe has 10 under construction and 9 in the permit phase; Asia has none in either phase. Maybe, that bodes well for North America starting to pick up the pace on Supercharger installs again; I predict that it will!
     
  11. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    I hope you are correct and we see a BIG push this winter here as we did last winter !!
     
  12. swegman

    swegman Member

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    The big push last year was to enable Elon to make his trip. That does not exist this year. It seems to me that Tesla is putting the emphasis in the European market and Asian market at the expense of the US market, possibly because of all the push back they have been getting from the US car dealers. Tesla may have concluded that they can get a bigger return on their efforts in Europe and Asia.
     
  13. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Did you bring up scissors just so my post would be removed to snippiness?
     
  14. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    I have to admit that both permits and construction are much smoother and take less time in Europe than in North Amerika. That can get really frustrating for you, I think.
     
  15. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    If we start counting the progress in North Amerika as from February 2014, then up to now in the period of the past 37 weeks we have seen 47 (=120-73) new live Supercharger stations in North Amerika. That's an average of 1.27 per week. And that comes down to a steady progress of about 5 per month.

    Here in Europe the progress has been at a higher level as from July 2014: 50 (=76-26) in the past 16 weeks, that is an average of 3.125 per week, or about 12.5 per month.


    But this higher rate of progress (more than double) has been there for a shorter period of time.
     
  16. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Actually, it would be more fair to compare the progress in 2014 so far (being a period of 42 weeks). And then we see that North Amerika is clearly in the lead with 70 new live Supercharger stations (= 1.66666 per week), against 62 in Europe (= 1.47619 per week).
     
  17. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Beckenried, Switzerland is now live. For Europe that means 63 in the first 42 weeks of 2014. And that's a new weekly average of exactly 1.5.
     
  18. Cottonwood

    Cottonwood Roadster#433, Model S#S37

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    Using numbers from Superchargers I decided to look at the last whole month of September 2014, along with the trailing 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month averages for North America, Europe, and Asia. Here are those numbers in a table. Because the trailing averages have centers of weight that are half of their period, I have listed them from largest to smallest, oldest to newest.








    Averaging Period: 12 Months 6 Months 3 Months Sep 2014
    Average Date: Apr 1, 2014 Jul 1, 2014 Aug 15, 2014 Sep 15, 2014
    North America 7.92 5.83 6.33 6
    Europe 5.33 9.33 15.33 10
    Asia 1.67 3.33 5.67 7
    World-wide 14.92 18.50 27.33 23
    This shows that while North American commissioning has held remarkably constant, European and Asian commissioning has increased remarkably. I hope that some of the increased activity we have seen recently in North America will lead to more commissioning, here. Elon's claim of a Supercharger every 20 hours corresponds to about 36 Superchargers a month. If installs can rise to that level, maybe we could get 12 a month per continent, 36 a month world-wide...seems fair... :cool:
     
  19. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    New live Supercharger stations in North America in October 2014: 7.


    That's 31 : 7 = 4.43 days per Supercharger station in October 2014.
     
  20. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    Sad progress. But progress none the same.
     

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