Will EU Super Charger surpass the US briefly ?

[macpacheco]

My opinion is the states in North America Tesla needs lots of superchargers are the ones with the most red tape. Just look at the first Mass Supercharger. Apparently it took a very loud Mass citizen complaining very hard to get the issue solved. I used to live in Nashua-NH and work in MA 20 years ago, it was remarkable how much faster things happened in NH vs MA.
At the same time the superchargers between Seattle and South Dakota seemed to have been installed in very good time.
C'mon guys, stop bitching at Tesla, if you live in the states that have the most red tape, bitch very hard against your own state.
Remember this anti Tesla movement is a political problem, Tesla is just the victim for challenging the status quo.
At the same time it looks like North America need another 30 or so SCs (plus the ones already in construction / licensing) to allow 95% of likely trip routes to be doable in a 85, and perhaps 40 to be great even for a 60.
Government tends towards red tape and waste. It takes thousands of concerned citizens to fight that. And sadly fighting red tape is the utter opposite of sexy/motivating.

 

[Kevin Harney]

My opinion is the states in North America Tesla needs lots of superchargers are the ones with the most red tape. Just look at the first Mass Supercharger. Apparently it took a very loud Mass citizen complaining very hard to get the issue solved. I used to live in Nashua-NH and work in MA 20 years ago, it was remarkable how much faster things happened in NH vs MA.
At the same time the superchargers between Seattle and South Dakota seemed to have been installed in very good time.
C'mon guys, stop bitching at Tesla, if you live in the states that have the most red tape, bitch very hard against your own state.
Remember this anti Tesla movement is a political problem, Tesla is just the victim for challenging the status quo.
At the same time it looks like North America need another 30 or so SCs (plus the ones already in construction / licensing) to allow 95% of likely trip routes to be doable in a 85, and perhaps 40 to be great even for a 60.
Government tends towards red tape and waste. It takes thousands of concerned citizens to fight that. And sadly fighting red tape is the utter opposite of sexy/motivating.

We understand that Red Tape exists over here in a big way sometimes. Things happen - we know that. The point is that you have to keep putting more SCs in the pipeline so they will come out the other end. If a particular location gives lots of push back move on to the next one. Pick the low hanging easy fruit first making build out go faster then the rest will follow. It looks like EU will be completed before the US.

 

[macpacheco]

Perhaps the process of doing everything that comes before actually starting construction of SCs takes 100% of the available Tesla personnel to take care of it (negotiating lease terms + licensing).
I think the bottleneck there isn't money, as shown very effectively with Tesla having 2000 open job positions !

 

[Benz]

New live Supercharger stations in North America in October 2014: 7.

That's 31 : 7 = 4.43 days per Supercharger station in October 2014.

With the Indianapolis, IN Supercharger station going live on October 31st, 2014 the total of new live Supercharger stations in North America in October 2014 goes up to 8. That means less than 4 days (3.875) per new live Supercharger station.

 

[Cottonwood]

Using numbers from Superchargers I decided to look at the last whole month of September 2014, along with the trailing 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month averages for North America, Europe, and Asia. Here are those numbers in a table. Because the trailing averages have centers of weight that are half of their period, I have listed them from largest to smallest, oldest to newest.

Averaging Period:	12 Months	6 Months	3 Months	Sep 2014
Average Date:	Apr 1, 2014	Jul 1, 2014	Aug 15, 2014	Sep 15, 2014
North America	7.92	5.83	6.33	6
Europe	5.33	9.33	15.33	10
Asia	1.67	3.33	5.67	7
World-wide	14.92	18.50	27.33	23

This shows that while North American commissioning has held remarkably constant, European and Asian commissioning has increased remarkably. I hope that some of the increased activity we have seen recently in North America will lead to more commissioning, here. Elon's claim of a Supercharger every 20 hours corresponds to about 36 Superchargers a month. If installs can rise to that level, maybe we could get 12 a month per continent, 36 a month world-wide...seems fair...

Here is the same table of installs per month, with various averaging periods, updated for October:

Averaging Period:	12 Months	6 Months	3 Months	Sep 2014
Average Date:	May 1, 2014	Aug 1, 2014	Sep 15, 2014	Oct 15, 2014
North America	8.00	6.17	7.33	8
Europe	6.42	11.17	12.33	13
Asia	2.17	4.00	5.67	6
World-wide	16.58	21.33	25.33	27

Install rates are continuing to increase almost everywhere. If recent trends (3 month average) continue, then in a little less than a year, Europe will pass North America in number of Superchargers. At that time, both North America and Europe will have about 200 Superchargers and Asia will have about 90.

World-wide installs are approaching 1 a day, but not quite there yet. If we use the current World-wide, 3-month install rate of 25.33 and the current World-wide total of 234 Superchargers, then the World-side Supercharger count will double in about 9 months. That is pretty amazing...

 

[Benz]

October 2014 has actually been a good month with 8 new live Supercharger stations in North America. The least you could say is that it was above average.

January 2014 was extraordinary good with 23 new live Supercharger stations in North America in one single month.

To get to a more realistic average we should look to the period of the last nine months (February 1st 2014 - October 31st 2014).

Then you get:
125 - 73 = 52
52 / 9 = 5.78

And 8 is reasonably more than 5.78 and let's hope that the monthly average gets higher and higher.

 

[Benz]

Currently there are 126 live Supercharger stations in North America:
Before 2014 - 50
In 2014 - 76

With about 8 weeks remaining in 2014, the current total of 76 in 2014 is most likely not going to get as high as 100.

And for next year, I think that the total new live Supercharger stations in North America in 2015 will most certainly be higher than 100, as more money will become available to invest in the expansion of the global Tesla Supercharger network.

 

[Skotty]

It feels like it's been slow to me lately, but that's just because they are being built in places I don't care about. Lets see some more dots in the middle of the country!

 

[Cottonwood]

It feels like it's been slow to me lately, but that's just because they are being built in places I don't care about. Lets see some more dots in the middle of the country!

They are coming...Denver, Chicago (Country Club Hills), and Dayton are all about to go live.

In your neighborhood, keep an eye on Independence; I bet something is going to happen there soon...

 

[Kevin Harney]

With twice as many under construction and in permitting in the rest of the world than in the US and it being close in numbers I think it is highly likely that in the next few months the world will surpass the US in numbers of superchargers. Only question in my mind is will the EU follow suit and surpass us also. 106 is VERY close to 123 and the momentum is greater there.

- - - Updated - - -

They are coming...Denver, Chicago (Country Club Hills), and Dayton are all about to go live.

In your neighborhood, keep an eye on Independence; I bet something is going to happen there soon...

And Columbia ...

 

[Benz]

With twice as many under construction and in permitting in the rest of the world than in the US and it being close in numbers I think it is highly likely that in the next few months the world will surpass the US in numbers of superchargers. Only question in my mind is will the EU follow suit and surpass us also. 106 is VERY close to 123 and the momentum is greater there.

The title of this thread is: "Will EU Super Charger surpass the US briefly?"

Now you start talking about the rest of the world instead of the EU. The difference in surface area between them is pretty big, you know.

Of course there will be more Supercharger stations in the rest of the world than there will be in the US, and that will happen sometime in 2015.

 

[Cottonwood]

With twice as many under construction and in permitting in the rest of the world than in the US and it being close in numbers I think it is highly likely that in the next few months the world will surpass the US in numbers of superchargers. Only question in my mind is will the EU follow suit and surpass us also. 106 is VERY close to 123 and the momentum is greater there.

- - - Updated - - -

And Columbia ...

North America has 14 under construction and the rest of the world has 14; North America has 19 in the permit stage and the rest of the world only has 7.

OTOH, North America seems to be much better at spotting the permit stage, and a little better at spotting the construction stage. Still, it's the turn on rate that counts, and as I stated above, the North America 3-month average is 7.33 turn-ons per month and Europe's is 12.33, so Europe is installing Superchargers almost 70% faster...

Columbia, MO is coming, but I think Independence, MO will happen a little sooner.

 

[Kevin Harney]

North America has 14 under construction and the rest of the world has 14; North America has 19 in the permit stage and the rest of the world only has 7.

OTOH, North America seems to be much better at spotting the permit stage, and a little better at spotting the construction stage. Still, it's the turn on rate that counts, and as I stated above, the North America 3-month average is 7.33 turn-ons per month and Europe's is 12.33, so Europe is installing Superchargers almost 70% faster...

Columbia, MO is coming, but I think Independence, MO will happen a little sooner.

My bad. When I was looking at the Construction and permitting numbers for the world I forgot to back out the US. So I guess it is roughly split 50/50.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Columbia, MO is coming, but I think Independence, MO will happen a little sooner.

We'll believe it when we see it.

 

[Kevin Harney]

The title of this thread is: "Will EU Super Charger surpass the US briefly?"

Now you start talking about the rest of the world instead of the EU. The difference in surface area between them is pretty big, you know.

Of course there will be more Supercharger stations in the rest of the world than there will be in the US, and that will happen sometime in 2015.

Sorry you missed the point in the second sentence which is right on the mark for the thread. World data growing very fast as well as EU data growing very fast was the trend I was establishing as well and US growth being VERY slow. Thus leading to the EU surpassing the US soon. I understand that you think this will not happen for 6 more years but in reality the US and the EU are only 40 superchargers apart. That is short hop.

 

[Benz]

Sorry you missed the point in the second sentence which is right on the mark for the thread. World data growing very fast as well as EU data growing very fast was the trend I was establishing as well and US growth being VERY slow. Thus leading to the EU surpassing the US soon. I understand that you think this will not happen for 6 more years but in reality the US and the EU are only 40 superchargers apart. That is short hop.

In the second sentence you indeed do mention the EU, but in the third sentence you mention "106" which is not the current total of the EU. So, that is confusing too.

 

[Kevin Harney]

In the second sentence you indeed do mention the EU, but in the third sentence you mention "106" which is not the current total of the EU. So, that is confusing too.

Sorry you were confused.

 

[Benz]

Sorry you missed the point in the second sentence which is right on the mark for the thread. World data growing very fast as well as EU data growing very fast was the trend I was establishing as well and US growth being VERY slow. Thus leading to the EU surpassing the US soon. I understand that you think this will not happen for 6 more years but in reality the US and the EU are only 40 superchargers apart. That is short hop.

In 2015 there will be more than 100 new live Supercharger stations in North America.

 

[Kevin Harney]

Based on the numbers from the Supercharger Map the EU is currently 67% of the US, it has 116% in construction and by the numbers it has 53% in permit but I believe that the permitting is actually higher, as Cottonwood stated, because the US tends to find more in permitting and the EU tends to permit in large batches rather than 1 at a time. at a 15% greater growth rate than the US it should catch up in 2-3 months. Also, given that the land area of the EU is less than half that of the US it could easily be argued that they may have actually already passed us.

Numbers to back that up:

EU 1 Supercharger / 134,250 sqkm or 1/51,834 sqmi
US 1 Supercharger / 186,820 sqkm or 1/72,131 sqmi

And I believe that TM should be shooting for about 1/16,500 sqmi for pretty good coverage even in a MS60

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

My opinion is the states in North America Tesla needs lots of superchargers are the ones with the most red tape. Just look at the first Mass Supercharger. Apparently it took a very loud Mass citizen complaining very hard to get the issue solved. I used to live in Nashua-NH and work in MA 20 years ago, it was remarkable how much faster things happened in NH vs MA.
At the same time the superchargers between Seattle and South Dakota seemed to have been installed in very good time.
C'mon guys, stop bitching at Tesla, if you live in the states that have the most red tape, bitch very hard against your own state.
Remember this anti Tesla movement is a political problem, Tesla is just the victim for challenging the status quo.
At the same time it looks like North America need another 30 or so SCs (plus the ones already in construction / licensing) to allow 95% of likely trip routes to be doable in a 85, and perhaps 40 to be great even for a 60.
Government tends towards red tape and waste. It takes thousands of concerned citizens to fight that. And sadly fighting red tape is the utter opposite of sexy/motivating.

The major hold-ups or problems have been due to:
- Utility installing a transformer (sometimes just mysterious, other times because of additional construction required)
- A company taking a long time to process an easement (the information SJC Supercharger)
- A legal challenge from a neighboring property owner (which caused Tesla to seek a different site)
- Waiting for other construction to finish (one development won't be completed until Spring; NH Hooksett will be at refurbished/new rest areas).