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Will EV Tax Credits Crater Used Tesla Prices

scoobybri

Member
Aug 25, 2021
223
497
Virginia
I was thinking that if the MYLR that I am expecting delivery of in November doesn't have the updated interior, I might just drive it for 6 months to a year and then sell it once Austin starts volume production. With the appreciating value of Teslas, I could put in an order in April, get the updated MY by the end of summer and sell the one I have for more money than I bought it. Sounded great...until I thought about the possible EV tax credit. If we suddenly see a $7500-10,000 rebate on Teslas, there will be zero reason for people to pay top dollar for used Teslas, unless they are not willing to wait for delivery. And with Autin ramping up, I expect that delivery times will drop significantly once they can produce 5k+ cars per week. If people can get a new Tesla delivered in a month costing $7500 less after the rebate (which will be taken at delivery), the used market is going to take a huge hit on prices. I expect that those of us who bought pre-tax credit will lose not only the upfront cash because we bought in 2021 but will also take a second hit when our cars drop in value by $7500 post-New Year. I guess if you are holding on to your car for 3+ years it won't matter as much but if you expect to sell in the next year, I would be looking to sell while the market is hot.
 
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PNWLeccy

Active Member
Jul 11, 2019
1,489
1,351
Seattle
I was thinking that if the MYLR that I am expecting delivery of in November doesn't have the updated interior, I might just drive it for 6 months to a year and then sell it once Austin starts volume production. With the appreciating value of Teslas, I could put in an order in April, get the updated MY by the end of summer and sell the one I have for more money than I bought it. Sounded great...until I thought about the possible EV tax credit. If we suddenly see a $7500-10,000 rebate on Teslas, there will be zero reason for people to pay top dollar for used Teslas, unless they are not willing to wait for delivery. And with Autin ramping up, I expect that delivery times will drop significantly once they can produce 5k+ cars per week. If people can get a new Tesla delivered in a month costing $7500 less after the rebate (which will be taken at delivery), the used market is going to take a huge hit on prices. I expect that those of us who bought pre-tax credit will lose not only the upfront cash because we bought in 2021 but will also take a second hit when our cars drop in value by $7500 post-New Year. I guess if you are holding on to your car for 3+ years it won't matter as much but if you expect to sell in the next year, I would be looking to sell while the market is hot.
I have been thinking about the same thing. I have a MYLR coming in November as well and am planning on selling my 2018 M3. I'm worried my M3 resale value could tank as soon as any EV tax credit is passed. Most of these bills do include a ~$2500 credit for used EVs which may help a little but might not make up for the possible generous tax credits on new EVs.
 

Jbapckfan

MYP MSM/Black OD 9/1, Delivered 11/23
Jun 28, 2021
480
700
Kansas City
The wait will probably be 8-12 months for a MYLR by January. Some people won’t want to wait that long. Also a price increase could eat into the rebate a bit. So yeah the rebate would make cause a $2-5k drop in used prices but unlikely a $7.5k drop. Demand is just so high.
 
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scoobybri

Member
Aug 25, 2021
223
497
Virginia
I really don't think there will be a significant increase in wait time come January. Tesla is hedging their bets by putting long estimates with new orders, but if my order is any indication, that will shrink as they start to schedule production. They are finally seeming to underpromise and overdeliver. If my EDD holds, my September order will be filled in 3 months or less.

As much as I want my MYLR, if Congress passes a $5000 or more EV credit that can be applied to my car, I'm going to have to put my order on hold considering I would be losing money on both the original cost of the MY and on resale value if I took delivery in 2021. It would suck to have to wait several extra months for a car I really want, but at more than $5k, that's too big of a chunk of cash to ignore. 😀
 

glide

Active Member
Jun 6, 2018
4,161
5,837
USA
There won’t be an EV tax credit so it’s really a moot point.

However, even if there was one, the back order for some vehicles is stretching out 6-8 months. So I wouldn’t expect it to have that much of an impact on the used market. People aren’t going to suddenly become patient when that way jumps from 6-8 months out to 2 years.
 

mrwug

Member
Jul 30, 2021
409
297
Colorado
With GigaTexas producing MY, they should be able to double their North American MY production by ~EoY 22'. Even if the GigaTexas ramp isn't as quick as Shanghai, I expect it to be pretty significant by mid-2022.
This. I don't get the feeling that TX production is yet being considered when estimating delivery dates. Over the past three months, there was never a point where EDD timeframe really shrunk as one would expect with a significant planned increase in production capacity. On the contrary, backlog seems to have increased from 3 months to six months. While TX wouldn't be near the target 5K MY per week by March, even 1-2K per week at that point should at least diminish the rate at which the backlog increases.

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but that's the view from where I'm sitting.
 
If my EDD holds, my September order will be filled in 3 months or less.
You are one of the lucky ones. My EDD (before I put my late August order on hold )was late Jan/early Feb. I think 4-5 months is the average for MYLR orders made in the fall and you just have one of those earlier EDD but then again you do not have a VIN yet.

I personally had 12/7-12/27 for weeks but that changed to Feb/March 2022 briefly before settling in late Jan (before I bought a demo MYLR).
 
I was thinking that if the MYLR that I am expecting delivery of in November doesn't have the updated interior, I might just drive it for 6 months to a year and then sell it once Austin starts volume production. With the appreciating value of Teslas, I could put in an order in April, get the updated MY by the end of summer and sell the one I have for more money than I bought it. Sounded great...until I thought about the possible EV tax credit. If we suddenly see a $7500-10,000 rebate on Teslas, there will be zero reason for people to pay top dollar for used Teslas, unless they are not willing to wait for delivery. And with Autin ramping up, I expect that delivery times will drop significantly once they can produce 5k+ cars per week. If people can get a new Tesla delivered in a month costing $7500 less after the rebate (which will be taken at delivery), the used market is going to take a huge hit on prices. I expect that those of us who bought pre-tax credit will lose not only the upfront cash because we bought in 2021 but will also take a second hit when our cars drop in value by $7500 post-New Year. I guess if you are holding on to your car for 3+ years it won't matter as much but if you expect to sell in the next year, I would be looking to sell while the market is hot.

Depends on what is passed. There has been a proposed $2,500.00 credit for qualifying used car purchases also. Time will tell.
 

EVer Hopeful

Member
Jul 7, 2021
810
644
Texas
I already got a $4,500 "credit" on my brand new Y

"How" you ask?

Simply by ordering on June 22nd, because since then the price has gone up by $4,500. So reversing that, if the $7,500 tax credit does come back for new vehicles, it's not as if the price will stay the same. It'll probably go up by somewhere around ... $7,500

well ok, maybe not by that much, but you get my point - and that's only if the credit ever re-materialises for Tesla vehicles
 
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MrJeep997

Member
Nov 1, 2021
80
74
PA
Its a good economics question. Personally I figured the $250 wager was worth it a few weeks ago as we might know more about the bill before delivery. Now that my deliver estimate was pushed back 3-4 months seems like we should know even more. EVer has a really good point about price adjustments if a credit does come into play.
 

Piscado

MYP blue white no fsd no tow OD 9/9 Delivered11/25
Sep 10, 2021
177
83
Bay Area
I already got a $4,500 "credit" on my brand new Y

"How" you ask?

Simply by ordering on June 22nd, because since then the price has gone up by $4,500. So reversing that, if the $7,500 tax credit does come back for new vehicles, it's not as if the price will stay the same. It'll probably go up by somewhere around ... $7,500

well ok, maybe not by that much, but you get my point - and that's only if the credit ever re-materialises for Tesla vehicles
many buyers in your shoes are looking to take more advantages out of it, by delaying the delivery to next year. Sure there’s risk but 8k off is certainly very tempting
 

45thParallel

Member
Sep 5, 2021
561
528
Minnesota
I placed an order for a M3LR last week with estimated delivery of 12/14 - 12/31. It has been moved up to 11/14 - 11/28. Lots of people are delaying delivery it would appear.
I think Tesla has protected M3 orders from delays due to the Hertz order. The bulk of the retrogression in delivery dates for MYLR's is coming due to the Hertz order. Maybe the profit on MYLR is much less than M3 and MYP. At the same time, I have seen Elon focus on MYLR production whenever he talks about Berlin and Austin. So until then MYLR orders are going to take much longer than any other Tesla model. An order of MYLR today shows a September delivery date.
 
I think Tesla has protected M3 orders from delays due to the Hertz order. The bulk of the retrogression in delivery dates for MYLR's is coming due to the Hertz order. Maybe the profit on MYLR is much less than M3 and MYP. At the same time, I have seen Elon focus on MYLR production whenever he talks about Berlin and Austin. So until then MYLR orders are going to take much longer than any other Tesla model. An order of MYLR today shows a September delivery date.

Model Y is one of the best selling cars of 2021


[In Zoolander voice] SUVs are so hot right now.
 

SolarCat

New Member
Oct 23, 2021
1
0
94707
I just got word my M3LR EDD is now 11/2 to 11/12. That's coming right up! Decided not to hold for tax credit figuring a 1/3 chance I might get it anyway, a 1 in 5 chance nobody gets it when stuff blows up or is pushed to next year.... but really, I want the car and would have bought it without the credit anyway....

Except for one nagging thought... Has anyone heard of Tesla being about to alter new M3's to a MS-type hatchback style? I don't like the M3's rear trunk configuration much and can't quite fit the bigger MY into my nearly antique Berkeley CA garage!. Anyway, the M3 sounds faster and more nimble...

But I might consider waiting for a M3 hatchback if there was a fair chance of it appearing before too long... thanks...
 

cypho

Member
Dec 20, 2018
823
1,011
USA
As the original tax credits were phased out, each time the credit decreased a few weeks later Tesla lowered the price by pretty much exactly the same amount of the tax credit decrease.

There is no reason to think that they won't raise the price if tax credits come back. In fact, that may be exactly what tesla has been doing with the recent price increases.
 

tm1v2

Member
Oct 18, 2021
571
404
USA
I just got word my M3LR EDD is now 11/2 to 11/12. That's coming right up! Decided not to hold for tax credit figuring a 1/3 chance I might get it anyway, a 1 in 5 chance nobody gets it when stuff blows up or is pushed to next year.... but really, I want the car and would have bought it without the credit anyway....

Except for one nagging thought... Has anyone heard of Tesla being about to alter new M3's to a MS-type hatchback style? I don't like the M3's rear trunk configuration much and can't quite fit the bigger MY into my nearly antique Berkeley CA garage!. Anyway, the M3 sounds faster and more nimble...

M3 does feels a lot more nimble than MY to me. Ride quality is better too (still not great). However MY has a far better back seat and cargo hold. It's give and take.

But I might consider waiting for a M3 hatchback if there was a fair chance of it appearing before too long... thanks...
I haven't heard of an M3 hatchback. Now that would make me kick myself for having just purchased an M3 sedan!

Personally I doubt we'll see an M3 hatchback anytime soon, Tesla has a lot of other already-announced new vehicles and refreshes to deliver on, and there's no shortage of demand with the current lineup. But I'd love to be wrong about this! Making the S a hatch was a great decision IMO, that really made it an excellent only car for my family for many years.
 

PNWLeccy

Active Member
Jul 11, 2019
1,489
1,351
Seattle
As the original tax credits were phased out, each time the credit decreased a few weeks later Tesla lowered the price by pretty much exactly the same amount of the tax credit decrease.

There is no reason to think that they won't raise the price if tax credits come back. In fact, that may be exactly what tesla has been doing with the recent price increases.
When they started raising prices in March, I thought they would catch some flak for trying to capture the rumored EV tax credits. But then it became clear that supply shortages were here for a while and demand was through the roof, which provided them cover for all the price increases. Tesla has already raised prices by $8k since the low of $49k in February for MYLR - equivalent to the likely $8k tax credit, if it passes.

At this point, I don't think the price increases will stop until GigaTexas/GigaBerlin reach mass production and/or supply shortages improve. I wonder what the price ceiling is since it doesn't seem to have impacted demand so far. I assume part of it is the inflation thinking, where you feel compelled to "get in now, before it goes up".

It's a tricky needle to thread right now as my 2018 LR RWD value keeps increasing but I imagine that it will drop as soon as EV tax credits pass. I can't sell now to lock in the current high prices since I'm waiting for the MYLR to replace it. Hopefully, the long wait times will keep used Tesla values from dropping by the full $8k. I'm expecting them to drop by ~$5k but with the $8k credit on the MYLR, I hope to come out ahead.
 

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