Will FSD be Transferable? - Elon: "we'll give it some thought"

[Yev000]

The cars seem to be losing about 10% to 12% of their purchase price in the first year (which seems far too low) and FSD is losing a bit over 65% in the first year

I think a lot of it is not knowing how to price the cars... FSD is basically not a thing in the UK in terms of functionality so yeah....

I predicted this outcome a year ago when people were counting ships, second hand FSD will be way cheaper than buying it *then*. Because the second hand market will put a proper value on it....


However....


If Tesla allows transfers it'll be game over for second hand FSD.

I was toying with the idea of getting a second hand LR with FSD maybe in 2022 and trading in my SR. If the SR is ~20k and that FSD LR is ~28k I'd only be paying 8k for what was a 9k+5k difference back then.

But with model Y, structural battery packs, Heat pump and other improvements.... I'll probably buy a new model Y instead now.

FSD is the wild card right now. If they allow trasfers, I'm buying it straight away, if not, i'll wait till my next car - probably... If it's super duper good and can drive me to work with no interventions in UK I might need to apply for a new credit card...

 

[Jason71]

Otherwise many folk will just subscribe for a month if they have a road trip planned.

Just my 2c. Which is all that it’s worth!

Would that be such a bad thing?
What's the situation with premium connectivity? how easy is that to sign up for a month for that and then cancel?

 

[Roy W.]

Would that be such a bad thing?
What's the situation with premium connectivity? how easy is that to sign up for a month for that and then cancel?

You subscribe to Premium Connectivity through the app or website, or in the car, but to cancel it you have to contact Tesla.

 

[Yev000]

I think if he ever gets as high as £/$10k for FSD then sales will be minuscule.

I think it's already above 10k canadian...

I agree. Regulations will keep a lid on the usability for a long while in Europe.

There is an interesting market forcing function though... If FSD is fully functional and is a big economic driver - think Semi - might get the regulators to hurry up. That's still about 3 years off before we see reasonably effects of it in US though I recon. You need the Australia megapack moment for everyone to jump on the bandwagon.

 

[GRiLLA]

It would seem to make sense to me for Tesla to allow people who already have FSD and are trading in against a new Tesla to get a discount on FSD.

For example, when you PX to a new Tesla you pay the difference between what you previously paid and the current price.

I think that would seem equitable to both exiting and new drivers, and a whole lot easier to administer than a real transferable entitlement.

 

[Sparkeur]

I sincerely hope that the investment I made in FSD means that not only will I keep receiving upgrades but that changes will be made so I can take the product with me from my old Tesla to a new one. However, I fully expect that eventually, FSD will have 'add-on' items for extra cost - City taxi, Out of town taxi etc.

 

[RichieC]

You subscribe to Premium Connectivity through the app or website, or in the car, but to cancel it you have to contact Tesla.

You can cancel Premium Connectivity on the Tesla Website (not sure if the Cancel buttion is a new addition)

 

[Yev000]

For example, when you PX to a new Tesla you pay the difference between what you previously paid and the current price.

In this case you would have thunk they would simply give you a fair price for the FSD on the car. However, the trade in prices for Tesla to Tesla I've seen listed on this forum does not give me confidence. It's generally considered more beneficial to sell your Tesla to a 3rd party dealer (or privately ofc.).

It also implies that FSD "depreciates" vs what Tesla is actually saying... It would be easier for them to just allow a transfer vs some wierd scenario like this:

SR+ 40k new + 6k for FSD (2019). Sold second hand to Tesla for a trade in SR+ 40k new + 10k FSD (2022). Do they buy back the FSD for 6k and sell you a "new" FSD for 10k? Do they give you 10k for your FSD as part of the trade in? Do they sell your car with FSD or without it?

So if its the price diff, SR+ without FSD is worth 20k in 2022 and 26k with? Do they then sell the SR+ without FSD for ~22k on their website or 22k + 10k or + 6k?

I personally don't think they will be able to sell an old car with "new" FSD price. That would be equivalent of buying a used Tesla and upgrading. So they would just sell it on without FSD to force the "new" FSD price. Although there may come a point where they will Osbourne their own used car sales because none will want the car without FSD.

I'm very curious how they plan to make a $25k car that has FSD included in that price. That would imply the car itself, with profit margin (or at the very least at cost) is worth ~$15k with *current* FSD prices. Makes me think that the FSD will be the thing you "buy" and you get the car to use while you hold the FSD license. Uless of curse that $25k is without FSD and its just "capable" - but not included in the price, which seems more realistic.

 

[RichieC]

In this case you would have thunk they would simply give you a fair price for the FSD on the car. However, the trade in prices for Tesla to Tesla I've seen listed on this forum does not give me confidence. It's generally considered more beneficial to sell your Tesla to a 3rd party dealer (or privately ofc.).

It also implies that FSD "depreciates" vs what Tesla is actually saying... It would be easier for them to just allow a transfer vs some wierd scenario like this:

SR+ 40k new + 6k for FSD (2019). Sold second hand to Tesla for a trade in SR+ 40k new + 10k FSD (2022). Do they buy back the FSD for 6k and sell you a "new" FSD for 10k? Do they give you 10k for your FSD as part of the trade in? Do they sell your car with FSD or without it?

So if its the price diff, SR+ without FSD is worth 20k in 2022 and 26k with? Do they then sell the SR+ without FSD for ~22k on their website or 22k + 10k or + 6k?

I personally don't think they will be able to sell an old car with "new" FSD price. That would be equivalent of buying a used Tesla and upgrading. So they would just sell it on without FSD to force the "new" FSD price. Although there may come a point where they will Osbourne their own used car sales because none will want the car without FSD.

I'm very curious how they plan to make a $25k car that has FSD included in that price. That would imply the car itself, with profit margin (or at the very least at cost) is worth ~$15k with *current* FSD prices. Makes me think that the FSD will be the thing you "buy" and you get the car to use while you hold the FSD license. Uless of curse that $25k is without FSD and its just "capable" - but not included in the price, which seems more realistic.

I suspect Tesla would resell a used car without FSD - even if it had it when they acquired it, so that they can resell FSD as an option at the new updated FSD price for that car. I know they don't normally do this currently (there have been instances where it has happened) but i suspect going forward with FSD that actually is Full Self Driving, this might be become a thing..

 

[seadog]

FSD seemed poor value to me when purchasing my car, as already said if it belonged to you and was transferable between future cars I would have been much more likely to purchase. I generally go on the same fairly short trips where I know the roads like the back of my hand and no dual carriageways or motorways. It could be handy for holidays, etc though and I would be interested in a subscription service if you could take it for as little as a month. Would be interested to see the difference in percentage of owners with FSD in UK vs USA where the features appear more useful, which is understandable if it's their main market.

 

[Yev000]

FSD seemed poor value to me when purchasing my car

It still is..... Right now its probably around 80% sunk cost item. And at ~7k thats a lot of sunk cost. Especially if its non-trasferrable.

Some people might aregue that its more paletable at purchase becase of the time owning hte car is greater than when you just "upgrade".

I'd argue that actually FSD - that works - on a 5yr old SR+ will be just as valuable as on a brand new LR. And they essentially have a monopoly right now on that "possible future" - you can't exactly buy a Waymo. Note I'm not saying monopoly on lane keeping and whatever else....

So yeah FOMO...

There is potential, this year, you could see the light at the end of the FSD tunnel in US. And once people can infer how the market can be disrupted, the money to be had will speak for itself.

That could turn an 80% sunk cost item (option on your car), to an appreciating asset, even if it doesent work in the UK. It's several - driving in San Fransisco on FSD- Youtube videos away from that happening.

Or it could be meh and nothing will happen...

 

[Glan gluaisne]

The conundrum in all this may be that we won't know if FSD works until it has been working reasonably well for a year or two. Trying to guess the true value of FSD after just a week or two of seeing it seem to work OK is probably damned difficult, it will be all the many edge cases that determine how effective and safe it is, and inevitably it's going to take millions of miles of driving with FSD to test most of those. The value depends wholly on effectiveness and safety, especially the latter. One major accident could seriously undermine the value, if caused directly by an FSD failing. I doubt that we're likely to be as tolerant of a product failure as we might be of a human one.

 

[zecar]

Subscription variant that has the owner to pay for FSD by allowing Tesla to run it as a robotaxi.

 

[GRiLLA]

SR+ 40k new + 6k for FSD (2019). Sold second hand to Tesla for a trade in SR+ 40k new + 10k FSD (2022). Do they buy back the FSD for 6k and sell you a "new" FSD for 10k? Do they give you 10k for your FSD as part of the trade in? Do they sell your car with FSD or without it?

They give you the part exchange price for your car, which won't consider anything that's an option (wheels, tow bar, FSD) and then on the new car you could be allowed to get FSD with a £6K discount. Already they choose whether they want to sell used cars with or without FSD, it's not related to what it had before, it's something they can play with to make second hand make more or less enticing.

If you just allowed free transfers there would eventually be no money in selling FSD, everyone would already have it, passed down through families, Tesla would have a forever liability to keep maintaining and developing with no income until the end of time.

 

[Yev000]

They give you the part exchange price for your car, which won't consider anything that's an option (wheels, tow bar, FSD) and then on the new car you could be allowed to get FSD with a £6K discount. Already they choose whether they want to sell used cars with or without FSD, it's not related to what it had before, it's something they can play with to make second hand make more or less enticing.

The point I'm making is that they can do it in any number of 1000 different ways. What you described above is not very fair if I just want to sell the car and not get a new one.

If you just allowed free transfers there would eventually be no money in selling FSD

"eventually" they want to sell 20 million cars a year, with or without FSD. There is currently 1 million "capable" of FSD on the road right now. Tesla to Tesla sales in 2021 will probably make up ~10%. Point is, FSD trasfer is a drop in the bucket in the next few years and will encourage people to upgrade.

It will do 2 things:

1. people will buy FSD today... money in the bank for Tesla
2. people will not worry about buying new hardware - more demand

Later on you can sell "Super Duper Full Self Taxi in the City Driving" for another £10k to those people. FSD might only be used for family members. Point is, they can wall fence anything they like going forward, so there is really no short term downside for them.

I recon the only reason they don't do it is because it's such a minor item for them in terms of financials that it's just below the radar.

For the record, on the Q3 call it was asked "how much the sale of EAP/FSD brought in" and the answer was something like $10m. with 23.7% margin on the cars the only need to sell 1-2k SR+ (without FSD) to make the same profit. They delivered 139k cars in Q3 ....

If they allowed trasfer they will make another $10-20m on the current crop probably. In fact it's more profit for them (if there was demand issues) to sell a new car than sell FSD. They probably make ~10k on the SR+ and more on other cars (23.7% Gross Margin on automotive in Q3 - which is up from 18.7% in Q2 by the way).

 

[GRiLLA]

The point I'm making is that they can do it in any number of 1000 different ways. What you described above is not very fair if I just want to sell the car and not get a new one.

It's entirely fair, if you want to sell the car and not get a new Tesla you won't be PX, so the FSD would stay with the car for the next owner, and has a more tangible value for them like it did for you.

"eventually" they want to sell 20 million cars a year, with or without FSD. There is currently 1 million "capable" of FSD on the road right now. Tesla to Tesla sales in 2021 will probably make up ~10%. Point is, FSD trasfer is a drop in the bucket in the next few years and will encourage people to upgrade.

No company is going to sell something that will last forever, until the end of time. You may as well suggest that free supercharging should have been transferable from earlier S/X.

 

[phil4]

It's swings and roundabouts.

There'll be plenty like me who bought on PCP (or leased) on 3 or 4 year terms, where paying £6800 ( or £8800 from Monday) for something that doesn't really work very well in the UK, and is hobbled by legislation too just doesn't make much sense. Yes it may work eventually, but chances are it'll be towards the end of after I've run out of PCP. So the only real justification I'd have is if it were transferable, or a semi-affordable subscription (I don't mean cheap as chips, but not silly money either).

The other thing Tesla should consider is competition. AutoPilot, Full Self Drive are big USP's for Tesla, and mentioned on many reviews. As we've found it costs a lot (FSD) and doesn't really work as well as the name suggests for most people. That's cool, it'll get better. But a the moment there's increasing competition, things like the VW ID3 at the cheaper end, polestar 2 almost head on, and Porsche Taycan at the top end, with things like the Audi Etron, Jag iPace, Ford Mustang Mach e as well inbetween.

So people in my boat in 3-4 years time are going to be looking at an even bigger choice of EV's. Brand loyalty is good, but if your USP and market dominance is dwindling/too expensive... they're bound to start losing customers.

The smart move would be to do both... offer it as a subscription to get repeat income, and jack the price up but allow it to be transferable to get the big bucks and loyalty from those that have the money/desire. I don't think either will kill their income massively, and will build in a degree of brand loyalty that they'll need in 3-4 years when the customer is looking at other options.

It's just my view, I can't speak for everyone however. I also realise that Elon has a very US centric view, and things are bound to be different over there.